2017-2018 Canadian Road to the Olympics

blackey said:

Maybe it's just me going crazy, but some stuffs they said this season really made me feel they might not retire after 2018
If they're going to retire after 2018, I really don't know why would they wanna go to worlds after olympics, especially they said their goal for comeback is go to the olympics..
I would love them to stay, just don't wanna get my expectation too high...

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What have they said?

I really don't see any way V/M stay on until 2022.

Well Scott did say this once... https://youtu.be/uFR558VZEuI?t=593
:rofl2:

sarama said:

Well Scott did say this once... https://youtu.be/uFR558VZEuI?t=593
:rofl2:

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Scott did say this more recently...

http://www.lfpress.com/2017/01/22/canadians-set-bar-high-at-nationals

I'm thinking that both V/M and W/P are done after this season. In my dream scenario V/M win the Olympics and retire and W/P go on to 2018's worlds and win a medal (cross your fingers Gold but if P/C is there it will be impossible). I also think Patrick and Duhamel/Radford are retiring. I'd also put pretty even money on Dylan retiring. D/R love competing so my guess is they go to 2018's Worlds.

I know this sounds a little crazy but with the exception of V/M I think everyone's best chance of gold is in the team event. I'd love to see Patrick skate both the short and long. My ideal team is:
D/R, S/B, Patrick, V/M, W/P and Osmond. (I guess with the Dance and Pairs teams you'd really want to watch the GP results first)

Top six teams are likely to be: Russia, USA, Canada, China, Japan and France, correct?

ancientpeas said:

I'm thinking that both V/M and W/P are done after this season. In my dream scenario V/M win the Olympics and retire and W/P go on to 2018's worlds and win a medal (cross your fingers Gold but if P/C is there it will be impossible). I also think Patrick and Duhamel/Radford are retiring. I'd also put pretty even money on Dylan retiring. D/R love competing so my guess is they go to 2018's Worlds.

I know this sounds a little crazy but with the exception of V/M I think everyone's best chance of gold is in the team event. I'd love to see Patrick skate both the short and long. My ideal team is:
D/R, S/B, Patrick, V/M, W/P and Osmond. (I guess with the Dance and Pairs teams you'd really want to watch the GP results first)

Top six teams are likely to be: Russia, USA, Canada, China, Japan and France, correct?

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top six to qualify yes but not top six at the games... i think japan will be dropped after the SPs, perhaps Italy if they fix their man issue could compete.

I would put D/R + one other pair (D/R for the FP and a stable pair for the SP, most likely S/B but not closed minded here as it could be I/M if they get stable jumps) Patrick should skate both unless we have an inform Keegan or Nic for instance who is blowing everyone away with both jumps and presentation... then I'd give Patrick the SP.... for dance, I like that you put two teams there... and those would be the good choices with most likely V/M in the SD.... but yeah... i think that it's safer to have Kaetlyn do the Sp and Gabby the LP... we will see how they fare on the GP season though. I just like Gabby's ability to land all her jumps in the LP. Kaetlyn will get there I am sure but still needs to do it first before she gets there if you see what I mean... however, her scoring potential remains higher.

i think we need to make a difference between who we would like to see win a team medal and who is possibly going to score the better for which segment for the country....

That's why I am pretty sure Patrick needs to skate both segments at this point, despite preferring he would be doing only the SP....

4everchan said:

top six to qualify yes but not top six at the games... i think japan will be dropped after the SPs, perhaps Italy if they fix their man issue could compete.
.

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I worry about the French. Sure P/C will be at least 2nd (if not 1st) but J/C, while great, are not consistent. They could skate lights out or it could be Helsinki again. Laurine could skate great or not and who knows about the men? I like Chafik but he's hardly consistent either. To me the French are the real wild cards. They could upset Canada's apple cart quite a bit or they could be a nonfactor. I think Japan will be fine except for Pairs. It's really Pairs for every team that isn't Russia, Canada or China that could be a real mess. The S-K/K could be great for the Americans, J/C could be great for the French, Japan has big pair problems and the Italians have a good couple of pairs but they too aren't consistent. I would expect Russia to send T/M, China to send S/H and Canada to send D/R to do the short. All three of those will be thinking about the pairs individually and probably won't want to skate the long. If France makes the cut will J/C want to skate the Long when they have a real chance to medal individually? I think this is where Russia, Canada and China have a huge advantage. Pairs depth. This is also why I think if they want to make the team event fair they need to switch around the order of individual events. Always having Pairs first will always give the advantage to feds who have 2 strong Pairs teams. If you put Dance or Ladies first that would shift the advantage around a bit.

Rambling.. Hope I was coherent.

See.. I'm thinking this: (off topic but I hope people will bear with me)

Russia: T/M or S/K for the short (probably based on Russian nationals and who has the better GP season) and then T/M or S/K for the long (which ever one doesn't skate the short because Russia will definitely want to set up one of their pairs to medal individually).
China: S/H for the short and then either Y/Z or P/J for the long (depending on who is skating better).
Canada: D/R for the short and then S/B or I/M (or even *gulp* MT/M) for the long depending on the GP season. I'd rather see S/B because they are usually more consistent.
U.S.A: You have to think S-K/K if they are healthy. But they will have to skate both and then skate both again individually. It's a lot to ask. If I were them, realistically, I'd focus on the team event. It's their best chance to medal.
Japan: Um..help me here..
France: J/C for the short and long would be ideal but.. will they want to skate the long if they feel they could medal individually?
Italy: They have 2 strongish pairs. I guess either would work.
Germany: S/M if they are willing to compete but are they? They didn't last time (S/S I mean)
???

Having Dance first would be a huge advantage for the Americans and Italians. Having Ladies first would be a huge advantage for the Japanese and the Americans.

ancientpeas, I take your point that countries depth with in pairs are advantaged.

But, perhaps they should be. :think:

Seriously.......One of the objectives of the Team event is to reward those countries that have well rounded excellence across all four disciplines in skating. Pairs is arguably the hardest discipline and certainly the most dangerous, and has the least depth in just about every country. So, how a country does in pairs can certainly be seen as a critical indicator of overall breadth and depth in its figure skating.

Even in Canada, which at the senior global level appears to have depth, there weren't enough teams qualified to fill out all the available slots for senior pairs at nationals 2017. And look at the impact of of a few key absences this past season on the ISU level competition. Developing pairs strength and depth seems to take a high degree of concerted effort by federations. To me, the ISU and IOC have done the right thing structuring the schedule such that depth in pairs is make or break.

And as ladies' singles depth often seems to develop ahead of men's in many countries [excluding Canada until recently ], one could argue that of the two the men's event should come first. Producing one great male skater seems to be different than having depth.

Frankly, looking at how the scoring works under the World Team Trophy model as hosted by Japan last week, what I saw was an event that strongly rewarded depth in singles skating alone. It allowed countries with weakness and pairs and dance to be relatively over-placed as they did not have to compete against the second ranked teams in pairs and dance. So, not really defensible as a team event that ranks countries on overall well-rounded excellence and depth.

In the end, I'm concluding that, it makes most sense for the Olympic team event to be as it is until the ISU's goal of incenting federations to develop strength in all four disciplines seems closer to being a reality.

olayolay said:

What have they said?

I really don't see any way V/M stay on until 2022.

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not necessarily 2022, but I remember at the beginning of 13-14, they sounds so certain about retiring after olympics. And now? everything they said sounds super vague. This "not sure about going to worlds after olympics" is one thing, and they never said they gonna retire after pyeongchang? and during one interview someone asked about 2022, scott was joking around and tessa said something like we were joking about pyeongchang at sochi but turns out we cameback, so we probably should not joke about beijing again.

On another note, I really appreciate 4everchan's point on how the need to fill the berths at 4CC may create opportunities for the 3rd-8th ranked men to get international profile and get on the podium at major ISU events.

The rankings are very tight, and all of the men are developing and transitioning. Nam, Nic and Roman are all still managing and training through the impact of growth and height. Keegan is developing in program components while pushing the tech envelope training a 4Lz-3T. And we will be looking to them post 2018 for Canadian strength in the discipline so these opportunities are key for future.

What Liam or Elladj will do is unknown, but we've not had any announcement.

Regarding women, one hopes that the opportunities that 3 berths will create can incent younger skaters to make the leap forward. But we need their coaches to take the lessons from Kaetlyn and Gabby's successes -- that neither strong clean technique nor program components are negotiable, or can be left for later....

The opportunities for pairs and dance teams are fantastic, but in both cases I wonder if we have more than 6 teams that will be able to meet the TES.. In pairs, one wonders if some of our stronger juniors, who are doing senior level elements and scoring in the range of the seniors will be encouraged to go to ISU seniors events to get the TES just in case. In the way that Roman and Nic went to Golden Spin last December.

In dance, I share the concern elsewhere that the the sheer number of break-ups and retirements in the past 14 months at the junior and senior level has severely compromised Canadian depth. One can hope that the number of international berths available will incent teams [and coaches] to go for it. Some lower ranked teams truly have the opportunity to get the experience that will serve them and Canadian skating well in future.

TGee said:

ancientpeas, I take your point that countries depth with in pairs are advantaged.

But, perhaps they should be. :think:
(snip)

In the end, I'm concluding that, it makes most sense for the Olympic team event to be as it is until the ISU's goal of incenting federations to develop strength in all four disciplines seems closer to being a reality.

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Yes I see what you are saying. But I still think it would be fairer to move around either the team event itself or the individual disciplines.

I don't think the WTT way of scoring is the best way either. I guess it depends what the ISU and IOC want from the team event. If they want ratings it would make sense to skew it toward singles to give both Japan and the US more of a chance to win. If they want it to be fair then they need to move around the individual events so that pairs is not always first and therefore giving an advantage to those teams with two strong pairs. If they want to reward teams with a well rounded pairs program then I guess they should leave it as it is.

Has anyone ever stated what the goal of the Team event is?

TGee said:

On another note, I really appreciate 4everchan's point on how the need to fill the berths at 4CC may create opportunities for the 3rd-8th ranked men to get international profile and get on the podium at major ISU events.

The rankings are very tight, and all of the men are developing and transitioning. Nam, Nic and Roman are all still managing and training through the impact of growth and height. Keegan is developing in program components while pushing the tech envelope training a 4Lz-3T. And we will be looking to them post 2018 for Canadian strength in the discipline so these opportunities are key for future.

What Liam or Elladj will do is unknown, but we've not had any announcement.

Regarding women, one hopes that the opportunities that 3 berths will create can incent younger skaters to make the leap forward. But we need their coaches to take the lessons from Kaetlyn and Gabby's successes -- that neither strong clean technique nor program components are negotiable, or can be left for later....

The opportunities for pairs and dance teams are fantastic, but in both cases I wonder if we have more than 6 teams that will be able to meet the TES.. In pairs, one wonders if some of our stronger juniors, who are doing senior level elements and scoring in the range of the seniors will be encouraged to go to ISU seniors events to get the TES just in case. In the way that Roman and Nic went to Golden Spin last December.

In dance, I share the concern elsewhere that the the sheer number of break-ups and retirements in the past 14 months at the junior and senior level has severely compromised Canadian depth. One can hope that the number of international berths available will incent teams [and coaches] to go for it. Some lower ranked teams truly have the opportunity to get the experience that will serve them and Canadian skating well in future.

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I wonder if skate canada will send Alaine to 4CC. I'd also think sending G/P would be a good idea. They aren't going to win a medal at the Olympics and they aren't going to be in the team event (I figure V/M will either skate both or W/P will be given the nod). I'd like to see them send all the 3rd placers and then development talent.

But then we have no idea yet about who will be going to the Olympics. Upsets and injuries could all change the look of the team. I'm figuring that only D/R, Chan, Osmond, Daleman, V/M, W/P and G/P are a lock to go. I/M, S/B and MT/M could be a dogfight and 3rd place for women and 2nd for men could be an upset. I know everyone thinks Kevin R. but to me Nam is a real contender if he gets back into form. He was once 5th in the world.

For dance, I'd like to see Lajoie/Lagha at 4CC. I'm pretty sure they'll be in junior next season, but it would be great experience for them. V/M went to 4CC during their last junior season when other teams were at the Olympics. If they get the minimums, I'd bet on them, Soucisse/Firus and another team for 4CC. For pairs, there's potentially whichever of the top four teams doesn't make the Olympic team, maybe Jones/Reagan. Ruest/Wolfe are a new team and they were pretty good this year. Maybe Walsh/Michaud if they get minimums.

ancientpeas said:

I worry about the French. Sure P/C will be at least 2nd (if not 1st) but J/C, while great, are not consistent. They could skate lights out or it could be Helsinki again. Laurine could skate great or not and who knows about the men? I like Chafik but he's hardly consistent either. To me the French are the real wild cards. They could upset Canada's apple cart quite a bit or they could be a nonfactor. I think Japan will be fine except for Pairs. It's really Pairs for every team that isn't Russia, Canada or China that could be a real mess. The S-K/K could be great for the Americans, J/C could be great for the French, Japan has big pair problems and the Italians have a good couple of pairs but they too aren't consistent. I would expect Russia to send T/M, China to send S/H and Canada to send D/R to do the short. All three of those will be thinking about the pairs individually and probably won't want to skate the long. If France makes the cut will J/C want to skate the Long when they have a real chance to medal individually? I think this is where Russia, Canada and China have a huge advantage. Pairs depth. This is also why I think if they want to make the team event fair they need to switch around the order of individual events. Always having Pairs first will always give the advantage to feds who have 2 strong Pairs teams. If you put Dance or Ladies first that would shift the advantage around a bit.

Rambling.. Hope I was coherent.

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very coherent the only reason I would like D/R do the LP is that this is where they usually can win based on TES. They have the SBS advantage and the harder throws...

In the SP, their only advantage is their lutz... however other teams get higher points on their twist.....so if everyone is clean, S/H would beat D/R in the short IMHO.... S/M also get huge points for their elements (rightfully so except that they don't deserve benefit of the doubt on their throws anymore... i don't remember the last time Aljona didn't two foot a throw... i think i was in grade 3 okay fine that's impossible LOL but yeah) and T/M did do well in the short as well... but yeah... we will have to see : i used to think that S/B were Canada's #2 team but now i am leaning towards i/M... they get HUGE PCS.... and they deserve them.
You have a very valid point about pairs... for instance, Germany and France may decide not to compete in the team event just to save J/C and P/C.... USA will have a very tired pair team....

ancientpeas said:

I wonder if skate canada will send Alaine to 4CC. I'd also think sending G/P would be a good idea. They aren't going to win a medal at the Olympics and they aren't going to be in the team event (I figure V/M will either skate both or W/P will be given the nod). I'd like to see them send all the 3rd placers and then development talent.

But then we have no idea yet about who will be going to the Olympics. Upsets and injuries could all change the look of the team. I'm figuring that only D/R, Chan, Osmond, Daleman, V/M, W/P and G/P are a lock to go. I/M, S/B and MT/M could be a dogfight and 3rd place for women and 2nd for men could be an upset. I know everyone thinks Kevin R. but to me Nam is a real contender if he gets back into form. He was once 5th in the world.

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i don't think Kevin is the top dog anymore....
What I believe for men is actually based on my analysis of Patrick's current season.. he has improved in both TES and PCS during the season. To me, the skater who will keep improving both aspects will get the nod. Kevin is up and down.... very hard to trust his quads will be rotated... and then, when he does so brilliantly like at worlds, he no longer gets the kind of PCS he needs to stay in the pack. He would need to work really hard on that make it work...

Nam, on the other end, seems to be improving his speed and power... His quad flip looks like beauty!!! He could really challenge again if PCS are improved.

Keegan impressed me very much at Nationals. I hope he gets his quad stable because he has so much srping!!!!

And Nic: enough said

i mean,,, it will be a war

SnowWhite said:

For dance, I'd like to see Lajoie/Lagha at 4CC. I'm pretty sure they'll be in junior next season, but it would be great experience for them. V/M went to 4CC during their last junior season when other teams were at the Olympics. If they get the minimums, I'd bet on them, Soucisse/Firus and another team for 4CC. For pairs, there's potentially whichever of the top four teams doesn't make the Olympic team, maybe Jones/Reagan. Ruest/Wolfe are a new team and they were pretty good this year. Maybe Walsh/Michaud if they get minimums.

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yup... J/R, R/W are candidates as well as Deschamps and K? ( i forgot her name , new partner from usa)

one question : what about Lubov's citizenship?

4everchan said:

i don't think Kevin is the top dog anymore....
What I believe for men is actually based on my analysis of Patrick's current season.. he has improved in both TES and PCS during the season. To me, the skater who will keep improving both aspects will get the nod. Kevin is up and down.... very hard to trust his quads will be rotated... and then, when he does so brilliantly like at worlds, he no longer gets the kind of PCS he needs to stay in the pack. He would need to work really hard on that make it work...

Nam, on the other end, seems to be improving his speed and power... His quad flip looks like beauty!!! He could really challenge again if PCS are improved.

Keegan impressed me very much at Nationals. I hope he gets his quad stable because he has so much srping!!!!

And Nic: enough said

i mean,,, it will be a war

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I almost feel sorry for every Canadian man who is not Patrick Chan. You know I have a soft spot for Balde. I'd love to see him at least go to 4CC.
May the best 2nd man go the Olympics!

ancientpeas said:

I almost feel sorry for every Canadian man who is not Patrick Chan. You know I have a soft spot for Balde. I'd love to see him at least go to 4CC.
May the best 2nd man go the Olympics!

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everyone has a soft spot for Elladj.... even his fellow competitors.. but damn it.. he always screws up nationals... he almost qualified for sochi.. but nope... he used to have the best 3A and a decent 4t... where were those jumps this year???

honestly, i think he is in the same kind of boat as jason brown... however, we have more guys in canada who have more than one quad...

just look at nam... he has a 4s and a 4t and now working on a 4f.... if he skates clean, he could even beat patrick if he were to do 4-5 quads in his lp...

so how can i imagine elladj getting ahead of him or guys like nic nam, kevin keegan, who all have 2 different quads etc...

4everchan said:

yup... J/R, R/W are candidates as well as Deschamps and K? ( i forgot her name , new partner from usa)

one question : what about Lubov's citizenship?

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Not sure what you mean... Do you just mean in terms of who I said for pairs? If she doesn't have it, I guess they're the top 4 team who doesn't go to South Korea, and they'd definitely get 4CC/Worlds if they wanted it (unless they were fourth at Nats, then maybe not worlds, but I don't see that happening). But the impression I've gotten is that she's likely to get it in time.

OT, but people think Dylan might retire after 2018 right? What do we think she'll do?

SnowWhite said:

Not sure what you mean... Do you just mean in terms of who I said for pairs? If she doesn't have it, I guess they're the top 4 team who doesn't go to South Korea, and they'd definitely get 4CC/Worlds if they wanted it (unless they were fourth at Nats, then maybe not worlds, but I don't see that happening). But the impression I've gotten is that she's likely to get it in time.

OT, but people think Dylan might retire after 2018 right? What do we think she'll do?

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skate with mervin? lol

i have no clue... she's young. i think he may keep going