2017-2018 Canadian Road to the Olympics

^^ where is the spanking emoji?

For the team event, I don't see D/R doing both unless no other pair is at all solid. Though I suppose it depends on how the season plays out a bit too. I just feel like, if they bounce back, they're strong contenders for a medal/gold and with pairs right after the team, they won't want to risk it. Last time, Chan didn't want to do both, but he might feel differently this time. If so, I think they split pairs for sure, then one of dance or ladies, who all have more rest time.

Maybe:

Pairs: I/M (SP), D/R (LP) - D/R's tech advantage is greater in the long, depending on GP season, S/B could do the short instead
Mens: Chan (both) - if he's willing, this is where we have the least depth so him doing both would be really good
Dance: V/M (S/D or both), W/P (FD?) - if France makes the free and uses P/C, you'd probably want V/M doing both
Ladies: Kaetlyn (SP or both), Gabby (LP?) - which of them or dance splits depends on athlete preference and the seasons they've all been having

I wouldn't be surprised to see Tessa and Scott skate both if Chan doesn't want to or SC prefers to split ladies, especially since they said the team event was some of their favourite memories from Sochi, though I would like to see W/P get a medal. The stronger their GP season, the more likely they get to skate the free imo.

I don't see any way Canada wins without Patrick skating twice. Maybe Kevin Reynolds has another dream performance like in Sochi....but I'm not betting on it.

Keep in mind that the short program is way more important that the free skate - the likelihood is that if a country has built a lead after the short program they will win.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Haha Same with Osmond/Daleman -- they will win silver and bronze IF they are healthy. Chan's also going to skate a clean SP and FS --- but only IF he's healthy too.

And V/M will lose to P/C... but only IF they're not healthy.

Click to expand...

Hmm, I am still thinking given her trajectory that Kaetlyn could rival for OGM. Not out of the question yet CSG, IF she remains healthy.

olayolay said:

I don't see any way Canada wins without Patrick skating twice. Maybe Kevin Reynolds has another dream performance like in Sochi....but I'm not betting on it.

Click to expand...

to elaborate on tennisguy's statement...

let's say Patrick only skates the short program...

after the short... a few countries get eliminated. Only the top 5 continue. One of these countries is certainly going to be Japan. As far as we know, their dance team isn't competitive enough yet thought improving, and they have no strong pairs (Suto/Boudreau-Audet are skating for Japan and helping them qualify but they aren't eligible for the Olympics)... So, in light of that, they could easily be out of the LP..

That means that USA, Russia, Canada, and most likely China + either France or Italy would be in Final 5.

Worst case scenario, Canada earns6 points for finishing last. Most likely, the Canadian #2 man would beat either the French or Italian man. so 7 points for 4th place.

Depending on other assignments, it is not impossible that Canada would also beat the #2 Chinese man for instance (keep in mind that they can use a sub in pairs but they don't have any other subs available but in men... so if they want to rest Boyang, ... they are vulnerable).
Other countries could do the same... Russian men can be hot or not.... American men : who will it be #1 or #2...

So in the worst case Scenario, Canada would earn 6 points but could also be close to the top with man #2...

Let's say Patrick skates the LP and other countries send #1 men, he would most likely beat France/Italy but nothing is guaranteed for the rest.. He could be beaten by a spectacular Kolyada, a Chen or a Jin... He could also beat them but nothing is 100% sure... so the ranking points in the LP here matter but are more in control than in the SP.

The most important thing for Canada to win gold is that all the SP skaters get into the top 3-4.... Dance could be #1, Pairs will need a clean program whoever skates it, Ladies, Osmond or Gabby will only have one Russian girl to face, (one of each country) so she could get close to the top and probably in top 3-4 at worse, Patrick would have a Japanese, and American and a Chinese man to fear here but could place in top3-4... So that's how Canada could do it...

After the SP : if Canada is in top 3-4 in each discipline, other countries will have lost more points against Canada than won them against Canada... for instance, Chinese ladies would potentially be in the bottom, Japanese Dance and Pairs too, American Pairs could be very low... Russian men or dance could be in mid range...

It's the no weakness part that matters the most in the SP.

ancientpeas said:

If Montreal is chosen I say we all crash at 4eversuspenders place

Click to expand...

Yah no ancientpeas, I already made that suggestion, but a balcony in Montreal in March, ...4everchan may get a bit of frost bite if we restrict him to the terrace

4everchan said:

to elaborate on tennisguy's statement...

let's say Patrick only skates the short program...

after the short... a few countries get eliminated. Only the top 5 continue. One of these countries is certainly going to be Japan. As far as we know, their dance team isn't competitive enough yet thought improving, and they have no strong pairs (Suto/Boudreau-Audet are skating for Japan and helping them qualify but they aren't eligible for the Olympics)... So, in light of that, they could easily be out of the LP..

That means that USA, Russia, Canada, and most likely China + either France or Italy would be in Final 5.

Worst case scenario, Canada earns6 points for finishing last. Most likely, the Canadian #2 man would beat either the French or Italian man. so 7 points for 4th place.

Depending on other assignments, it is not impossible that Canada would also beat the #2 Chinese man for instance (keep in mind that they can use a sub in pairs but they don't have any other subs available but in men... so if they want to rest Boyang, ... they are vulnerable).
Other countries could do the same... Russian men can be hot or not.... American men : who will it be #1 or #2...

So in the worst case Scenario, Canada would earn 6 points but could also be close to the top with man #2...

Let's say Patrick skates the LP and other countries send #1 men, he would most likely beat France/Italy but nothing is guaranteed for the rest.. He could be beaten by a spectacular Kolyada, a Chen or a Jin... He could also beat them but nothing is 100% sure... so the ranking points in the LP here matter but are more in control than in the SP.

The most important thing for Canada to win gold is that all the SP skaters get into the top 3-4.... Dance could be #1, Pairs will need a clean program whoever skates it, Ladies, Osmond or Gabby will only have one Russian girl to face, (one of each country) so she could get close to the top and probably in top 3-4 at worse, Patrick would have a Japanese, and American and a Chinese man to fear here but could place in top3-4... So that's how Canada could do it...

After the SP : if Canada is in top 3-4 in each discipline, other countries will have lost more points against Canada than won them against Canada... for instance, Chinese ladies would potentially be in the bottom, Japanese Dance and Pairs too, American Pairs could be very low... Russian men or dance could be in mid range...

It's the no weakness part that matters the most in the SP.

Click to expand...

Math! I stand corrected then. (but I'd still feel better having Patrick doing both)

Osmond4gold said:

Hmm, I am still thinking given her trajectory that Kaetlyn could rival for OGM. Not out of the question yet CSG, IF she remains healthy.

Click to expand...

Well, IF Osmond/Daleman is healthy, they will 100% skate both programs cleanly. But ONLY if they are healthy.

tennisguy said:

Keep in mind that the short program is way more important that the free skate - the likelihood is that if a country has built a lead after the short program they will win.

Click to expand...

Tennisguy, how'd you get so smart so soon? And agreed BTW . Welcome to GS and this Thread!

Osmond4gold said:

Tennisguy, how'd you get so smart so soon? And agreed BTW . Welcome to GS and this Thread!

Click to expand...

Thanks - I've been posting to the ISU Board for many years but it is crawling along with little happening so I'm branching out.

^^ That's why your handle looked familiar. Yes, not too many left on the ISU site. I know a few are regular posters here also.

It will be really weird if one of our other men are skating so well be the time the Olympics comes around that we are practically begging Patrick to only skate one part so Skater B can skate the other. Or if two of the other pairs are skating better than D/R so we will want them to skate the SP and LP. We are a fickle bunch.

ancientpeas said:

It will be really weird if one of our other men are skating so well be the time the Olympics comes around that we are practically begging Patrick to only skate one part so Skater B can skate the other. Or if two of the other pairs are skating better than D/R so we will want them to skate the SP and LP. We are a fickle bunch.

Click to expand...

fickle bunch of pickles

ancientpeas said:

It will be really weird if one of our other men are skating so well be the time the Olympics comes around that we are practically begging Patrick to only skate one part so Skater B can skate the other. Or if two of the other pairs are skating better than D/R so we will want them to skate the SP and LP. We are a fickle bunch.

Click to expand...

To be honest i don't see that considering that Kevin is still the odds on favorite to go back to the Olympics which says that other Canadian men since 2014 haven't stepped up their game. The younger guys under 20 are going to have to start showing what they can do because after 2018 it will be up to them top carry the ball for the future of Canadian men internationally. Basically you have to two groups of men in Canada the older guys 24 and up who will most likely be done after 2018 and skaters like Nic, Roman and Nam who represent the future and are all under 20. What Canada lacks is skaters in the middle age group 20-23 who have some experience and can help keep Canada relevant until the up and comers make their mark.

Jammers said:

To be honest i don't see that considering that Kevin is still the odds on favorite to go back to the Olympics which says that other Canadian men since 2014 haven't stepped up their game. The younger guys under 20 are going to have to start showing what they can do because after 2018 it will be up to them top carry the ball for the future of Canadian men internationally. Basically you have to two groups of men in Canada the older guys 24 and up who will most likely be done after 2018 and skaters like Nic, Roman and Nam who represent the future and are all under 20. What Canada lacks is skaters in the middle age group 20-23 who have some experience and can help keep Canada relevant until the up and comers make their mark.

Click to expand...

well, here is how i see things

Nam Nguyen : got up to 5th in the worlds... grew up 3 feet taller and had to relearn everything from scratch... wasn't doing well in toronto, moved to california and came back to Canada.... now that he has been at YRSA, not only he has recuperated his jumps and readded the 4T, (4S was already back) he is working on the 4F and has increased his speed : I would say that he has done well considering his growth spurt and two coaching changes.

Nic : was injured... still managed a 4Loop at Nationals... he has a gorgeous 3A.... used to have 4t and landed 4Lz in training. We will see what the summer does for him because this season is not a reflection of what he can do.

Roman : still growing, still learning.. instead of popping the big jumps now, at least he is rotating them... we will see...

Among these 3, Roman seems a bit less competitive RIGHT NOW... but that could change quickly.

Add to this list of youngsters : Conrad Orzel, 4t, 4lz, great 3A... needs to work on skating skills and choreo

So, as you said, that up and coming group needs growing up but one of these guys could have by Nationals, developed further ahead of the others and clearly a contender for the second spot...

Middle age guys : it is true... we don't have a lot of guys in that group.... Bennet Toman is 20 (just turned 20)... beautiful skating skills, but jumps are not all there yet though he does in his programs, 4t, 4ts and very nice 3A. I wouldn't place him as a favourite for the top 2... but I could see him land in the top 4-6 and get to go to 4CC and gain some more experience.

Where it gets interesting is in the 24-26 age group....
Patrick, always improving at each competition despite always trying to upgrade his layouts! KUDOS!!! I don't think anybody expected him to be able to add that much content to his programs... and yet, doing so, he has matured his skating style... even people who didn't like him before, and there are way too many IMHO, are admitting how beautiful his programs are and how nice his big jumps are when landed.
Kevin, is for me, the biggest question mark among ALL Canadian men... Capable of the best and the worst... I know Kevin is at University and my first question to him would be, "are you planning to take the semester off to focus on the games or are you going to try to manage everything?" If he is in school, I don't think he will improve enough to be competitive for the games... he may qualify but he would be a weak second man... Why : he needs more speed and power and stamina, which is normal after the kind of injury he had... He peaked at worlds... he was very good there... but judges didn't give him much credit PCS wise.... he has been away from sight and hasn't improved his skating skills... but IMHO he shouldn't be in low 7s... sorry. To get to 8s, he would need to compete a lot and be consistent... we will see.

Liam and Elladj : as much as I like their smooth skating, I do not think they will be factors next year to qualify for the games. They are both struggling with what we call now basic jumps 3a and 4t.... Elladj used to have a gorgeous 3A.. perhaps he was recuperating from injury this year but at Nationals he was quite underwhelming.

For me, the most exciting skater from this group, and the one I think will make the Olympic team is Keegan Messing. Who knew I would grow to like him that much... I am surprised myself but I saw him twice live last year and he was so fun to watch. He is super fast, his spins are incredible. He rotates very fast and has great jumps. What he needs : a bit more experience and belief that he is the one going to the games with Patrick... We will see if his brand new and gorgeous 4lz-3t will help him there.

Where I disagree with you Jammers is that the way the schedule is done next year, almost all these men could receive an assignment, meaning that they will have a chance to develop and do better.

I believe Conrad will stick to Juniors... so that's done

As I have explained earlier, the Olympics are too close to 4CC which means that 5 men even are guaranteed a berth. I would think that 1-2 men will go to Olympics... and that 3-4-5 but most likely 4-5-6 will go to 4CC.... I think the plan will be for man #3 to be the substitute so no 4CC, and will then get a berth for Worlds, especially if man #3 is Kevin... or if Men #1-2 are Patrick and Kevin (most likely retiring after games). So in that scenario, 5-6 men would go to ISU championships/olympics next year.

This means that the federation will need to get these guys out there so they can get their TES minimums. One of the issues in the past is that very few skaters from Canada were getting Senior B assignments but this is changing....

in the end, yes, maybe the 5-6 older guys, which I can see 2 or 3 as competitive at this point may retire after the games/wc 2018... but then, with the great opportunities lined up for Canadian men next year, and the depth within the younger boys, it could lead to developing those younger men right in time for 2019... by 2022, they could all be at their peak...

I think the situation here is not bad at all...

From 4everchan For me, the most exciting skater from this group, and the one I think will make the Olympic team is Keegan Messing

I was just about to say the same thing. Has he been written off by the fans? I just loved him when he was skating for the US and I remember saying to my friends.." If that cute kid who played the hulk gets a good choreographer, he's gonna be Champion one day." Then poof....He moved to Canada. :hslap: By the way...Does Keegan actually live in Canada or is his permanent home still in Alaska? Look at how happy he was after his Hulk LP. I will never forget seeing his giant smile. http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Figure+Skating+Championships+ZJb3wpMADbwm.jpg

Same here. It confused me that he moved and then I never heard about him. He really zipped across the ice.

all i know about Keegan is that this year, he is on the National team... and that will mean that we will see him more

I would agreed, that Patrick and Keegan are the men to watch in 2018. You know what Monty Python would say, "always look on the bright side of life".