2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

R.D. · Nov 11, 2017

Mrs. P said:
I'd argue that Karen is less of a front-runner than either Ashley or Mirai considering her VERY poor performances as of late, especially at Skate Canada. She can still turn it around at SkAm. But she's probably in a more favorable position that Mariah or Courtney.

Exactly - While Chen may have a bit more to prove than Wagner* or Nagasu this season (she needs to trend in the right direction!), no one else is making a clear case over her at this point. Remember, best of the worst as I said earlier...and also keep in mind for the Committee that Chen was 4th at Worlds last year. Now, of course if she stinks it up at SA that may very well be negated.

*Wagner also needs to step it up at SA to keep herself in position

Disclaimer: Preliminary assessment - will change as we get deeper into season

Mathman · Nov 11, 2017

IMHO no one has got a sufficient lead over anyone else yet to make much of a difference to "The Committee." They should just go with 1,2, 3 at Nationals and avoid outsmarting themselves. :yes:

R.D. · Nov 11, 2017

^ Yes, that's what it's coming down to at this point. May as well just go with the top 3 (unless, say, Wagner goes to GPF and medals).

frida80 · Nov 11, 2017

mrrice said:
I think Mirai did quite well here. My disappointment still lies with Mariah Bell. She was so promising last year and to see her struggle is a bit sad. I really think she should dump this new free program and go back east of eden before its too late.

Mariah was on the up swing last year until she got silver at SA. Then it felt like USFS wanted her to be a top skater when she barely had time to get use to becoming more consistent. She's very good, but I worry that she was expected to do too much to soon.

yyyskate · Nov 11, 2017

I think Mariah has started changing her technique. Her prep into combo looked different.

frida80 · Nov 11, 2017

yyyskate said:
I think Mariah has started changing her technique. Her prep into combo looked different.

She worked on changing her technique all summer with Raf. It takes a long time to allow new technique to settle.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 11, 2017

R.D. said:
^ Yes, that's what it's coming down to at this point. May as well just go with the top 3 (unless, say, Wagner goes to GPF and medals).

If Ashley makes the GPF, I'd almost say that alone would be good enough. Her peers are all going to be miles away from qualifying, and participating does take away training time from her preparations for Nationals. On the other hand, if Ashley bombs at Nationals, would the USFSA twice bye her to the Olympics? That would be unprecedented. It probably should be the top 3 finishers at Nationals going.

R.D. · Nov 11, 2017

drivingmissdaisy said:
If Ashley makes the GPF, I'd almost say that alone would be good enough..

:scratch: But if Wagner is last there with a non-competitive score, I don't see how that *really* makes her better off than the others. She was 3rd at SC, which is fine: she would have been 8th at NHK with that same score FWIW, behind Nagasu. And looking at the SA field, 183 could possibly be enough for a medal once again. But any score under 200 would likely bury her in last place once in the GPF.

I think total scoring, not just placement, needs to be looked at if more than just Nationals will be taken into account for the Oly Team.

Blades of Passion · Nov 11, 2017

Making the GPF would secure Ashley an Olympic spot, just like last time. She would again be in the position of "most consistent American lady for the last several years" and if she doesn't skate well at Nationals, then the argument of "everyone else had more training time while I had to compete at GPF" will be used.

Eeyora · Nov 11, 2017

Feline Feeder said:
I feel sort of relaxed, actually, knowing that there is actually 0% chance of a US "Lady" getting any sort of a medal in the Olympics, except perhaps in the team competition (are they still having that)? In the previous two Olympics, there was perhaps a 10% chance with Rachael Flatt and young Mirai and maybe 33% in 2014 with Ashley at her peak and Gracie on the upsurge. But this year? Absolutely nil.

It's depressing watching "Return to Sochi" on the new Olympic Channel. Both of the skaters who were expected to be the top contenders for 2018 are out with eating disorders (Gracie and Julia/Yulia). So sad.

I kind of feel like it’s a competition at this point of Who Can Make the Top 10? Even though Karen was 4th last year at Worlds.

frida80 · Nov 11, 2017

R.D. said:
:scratch: But if Wagner is last there with a non-competitive score, I don't see how that *really* makes her better off than the others. She was 3rd at SC, which is fine: she would have been 8th at NHK with that same score FWIW, behind Nagasu. And looking at the SA field, 183 could possibly be enough for a medal once again. But any score under 200 would likely bury her in last place once in the GPF.

I think total scoring, not just placement, needs to be looked at if more than just Nationals will be taken into account for the Oly Team.

Now that Polina has shown how strong she can be in comp, Ashley will have to pull out her best skates to get to the GPF. If she gets silver, she will lose the tie breaker. In order to beat Polina T she needs a SP score of 70+ and a FS of 140. Very tall order. But if she can get the crowd into her MR performance against, she can still pull off the win.

R.D. · Nov 11, 2017

Anyway, I wonder if deep down, Wagner would rather have the extra training time between SA and Nats. The other US women will have that time after all, so...

Of course, in that case she can DEFINITELY forget about any sort of automatic Oly berth. She will have to earn it the "old-fashioned" way. :yes:

mrrice · Nov 11, 2017

frida80 said:
Now that Polina has shown how strong she can be in comp, Ashley will have to pull out her best skates to get to the GPF. If she gets silver, she will lose the tie breaker. In order to beat Polina T she needs a SP score of 70+ and a FS of 140. Very tall order. But if she can get the crowd into her MR performance against, she can still pull off the win.

Did Polina compete somewhere??? The way that Mariah looked this weekend, I think Ashley would have to crash and burn NOT to make the US team. I'm still holding out for Angela Wang to impress the US judges and I know she has the talent get on the team.....I just hope she can hold it together under pressure.

zanadude · Nov 11, 2017

mrrice said:
Did Polina compete somewhere???

I think the poster is confusing Polina Edmunds with Polina Tsurskaya.

frida80 · Nov 11, 2017

mrrice said:
Did Polina compete somewhere??? The way that Mariah looked this weekend, I think Ashley would have to crash and burn to make the US team. I'm still holding out for Angela Wang to impress the US judges and I know she has the talent get on the team.....I just hope she can hold it together under pressure.

I was talking about Polina Tsurskaya. She just competed this weekend and competes against Ashley and Karen in SA in two weeks. Polina Edmunds competes next week in France.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 11, 2017

R.D. said:
But if Wagner is last there with a non-competitive score, I don't see how that *really* makes her better off than the others. She was 3rd at SC, which is fine: she would have been 8th at NHK with that same score FWIW, behind Nagasu. And looking at the SA field, 183 could possibly be enough for a medal once again. But any score under 200 would likely bury her in last place once in the GPF.

I think total scoring, not just placement, needs to be looked at if more than just Nationals will be taken into account for the Oly Team.

To a certain extent that's true, but that technical panel in Canada was brutal and the rotation calls were especially severe. What's important is that Ashley beats Americans that she's facing head-to-head to establish herself as the strongest US woman.

R.D. · Nov 11, 2017

zanadude said:
I think the poster is confusing Polina Edmunds with Polina Tsurskaya.

As this is the US Ladies thread it may be easier to refer to the latter by her full name or last name as I was initially confused as well...

R.D. · Nov 11, 2017

drivingmissdaisy said:
To a certain extent that's true, but that technical panel in Canada was brutal and the rotation calls were especially severe. What's important is that Ashley beats Americans that she's facing head-to-head to establish herself as the strongest US woman.

To make her case for the Team, yes.

Having said that, she's said she wants a medal at the Olys...

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 11, 2017

R.D. said:
To make her case for the Team, yes.

Having said that, she's said she wants a medal at the Olys...

Well she will presumably get another one in team! :biggrin:

Individually Ashley just doesn't have the firepower. I'm a longtime advocate for we and love how she sticks it to the haters, but I think she already seized her opportunity in Boston and now in Korea the podium in individual will be near impossible. But then again she could surprise us... she's still hungry for the US title, and can still definitely better her Olympic placement from last time. And of course there have been surprises like Kostner in Sochi, so who knows!

mrrice · Nov 11, 2017

R.D. said:
To make her case for the Team, yes.

Having said that, she's said she wants a medal at the Olys...

Well, every skater wants a medal at the Olympics but, in reality, I think Ashley would be thrilled to make the US team and finish in the top 5 in Korea. I know that I'd be thrilled if that happened. If any US lady makes the final flight, I will consider it a huge deal!!!!

2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

R.D.

Mathman

R.D.

frida80

yyyskate

frida80

drivingmissdaisy

R.D.

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

Eeyora

frida80

R.D.

mrrice

zanadude

frida80

drivingmissdaisy

R.D.

R.D.

CanadianSkaterGuy

mrrice

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