Hiwatashi is a very good skater but he is 17 and still jump girl's content (even without 3A), so i don't think he can win in Italy.
He looks to have watered down his jumps while coming back from injury. He attempted and struggled with both a quad & axel all last season. (Had a beautiful 3 axel just at the tail end of 2015-2016 during Nationals & Juniors Worlds--prior to leaving Ouriashev). Tomoki may still be in the recovery process, in which case it is an achievement for him just to earn the second event.
Even if he upgrades, he is still a longshot based on what we saw from him last season. But it isn't that he isn't capable of more than he has. He has the second mark and bested a lot of far better skaters than are in this field back at Junior Worlds in 2016.