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Thread: Who will make it to the JGP final?

  1. #106
    Mmmmm, tacos. Chemistry66's Avatar
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    After the SD, Polishchuk/Vakhnov are in 1st and look in easy contention to get their required 1st-4th to qualify.

    Ushakova/Nekrasov are in 2nd. If they stay there, they need at least a 79.57 in the FD to overtake Konkina/Yakushev and qualify. Their PB is 83.32 from earlier this season in Minsk, so they could certainly do so, but can't afford multiple errors.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemistry66 View Post
    Ice Dance chances now:

    (Above the line are in for sure)

    1) Carreira/Ponomarenko (USA) - 30, 1st + 1st
    2) Skoptcova/Aleshin (RUS) - 28, 1st + 2nd, 294.42
    3) Lajoie/Lagha (CAN) - 28, 1st + 2nd, 289.22
    4) Shevchenko/Eremenko - 28, 1st + 2nd, 285.96
    __________________________________________
    5) Konkina/Yakushev - 24, 2nd + 3rd, 283.57
    6) Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov - 24, 2nd + 3rd, 265.65
    7) Green/Green - 22, 3rd + 3rd

    Still to skate in Italy who could make the final:

    Polishchuk/Vahknov (RUS) - 15, 1st, 145.86
    Ushakova/Nekrasov (RUS) - 11, 3rd, 142.94

    (A few more teams could be alternates IF and only IF they won)

    Polishchuk/Vakhnov are in if they medal or get 4th (since they win the placement tiebreaker because of their gold in their first event). If they get 5th, they're out/likely an alternate.
    Ushakova/Nekrasov are in for sure with a 1st. If they're 2nd they're in IF they get a total higher than Konkina/Yakushev (regardless of Polishchuk/Vakhnov), OR IF they get at least higher than Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov (but not higher than Konkina/Yakushev) and something happens to Polishchuk/Vakhnov. 2nd with a lower total than Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov and they're out/alternates. 3rd and they're out/alternates.

    Final will most likely be Carreira/Ponomarenko, Skoptcova/Aleshin, Lajoie/Lagha, Shevchenko/Eremenko, and then Polishchuk/Vakhnov + one of Konkina/Yakushev and Ushakova/Nekrasov who have very similar scores this season.

    Too bad for Shpilevaya/Smirnov who are dealing with injury, and Corentin/Rahier who had to withdraw from their second JGP after the SD, who had chance of qualifying.

  2. #107
    Mmmmm, tacos. Chemistry66's Avatar
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    After the first, the free skate looks like it'll be very interesting. If placements stay the same, then for JGPF:

    - Hiwatashi and Murashov are both out (need to place at least 2nd to have any chance even before tiebreakers)
    - Ignatov is in
    - Torgashev would need at least a 123.01 to overtake Joseph Phan on the total score tiebreaker, which is doable based on his PB of 139.44

    The spoilers have seemingly done their jobs, making the FS really matter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chemistry66 View Post
    Men's chances now:

    (Above the line are in for sure)

    1) Alexey Erokohv (RUS) - 30, 1st + 1st, 454.68
    2) Alexei Krasnozhon (USA) - 30, 1st + 1st, 434.85
    3) Camden Pulkinen (USA) - 28, 1st + 2nd
    4) Mitsuki Sumoto (JPN) - 24, 1st + 4th
    _________________________________________
    5) Makar Ignatov (RUS) - 24, 2nd + 3rd
    6) Joseph Phan (CAN) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 404.74
    7) Luc Economides (FRA) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 386.55
    8) Roman Savosin (RUS) - 22, 2nd + 4th, 383.74

    Still to go in Italy:
    Andrew Torgashev (USA) - 13, 2nd, 212.71
    Tomoki Hiwatashi (USA) - 11, 3rd, 189.89
    Igor Murashov (RUS) - 11, 3rd, 186.76

    Torgashev is in with a 1st or 2nd. With a 3rd, he needs to beat Ignatov on the score tiebreaker and one of Hiwatashi/Murashov to get a low enough score OR if below Ignatov's total both others must get below Ignatov. With a 4th, he'd need to win the score tiebreaker over Phan AND hope both Hiwatashi/Murashov to get no better than bronze. 5th or lower, he's out.

    Hiwatashi is in with a 1st. With a 2nd, he's in if he beats Ignatov on the score tiebreaker and Torgashev wins or gets bronze without Murashov winning; if he beats Ignatov on the tiebreaker and Murashov wins, he's in only if Torgashev gets bronze with a low enough score or lower than bronze. With a 3rd, he's out because he loses the placement tiebreaker to Phan.

    Murashov is in with a 1st. The other situations mirror Hiwatashi's possibilities exactly, just with slightly different score tiebreaker totals needed.

    Likely final is Erokhov, Krasnozhon, Pulkinen, Sumoto, and then Torgashev and one of Ignatov or Hiwatashi (since Hiwatashi has higher PB than Ignatov but Ignatov has the higher scores this season)

    (ETA to put Sumoto in as mentioned below by another poster, because his gold ensures he'll win any tiebreakers and only two of Torgashev/Hiwatashi/Murashov could beat him by total placement points anyway)

    (ETA again: Also, if Russia decides to replace Samoilov with Rukhin, Rukhin's qualification path is the same as Hiwatashi or Murashov.)

  3. #108
    Medalist SnowWhite's Avatar
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    For ice dance, we have:

    Qualified
    1. Carreira/Ponomarenko — 30
    2. Skoptcova/Aleshin — 28
    3. Polishchuk/Vakhnov — 28
    4. Lajoie/Lagha — 28
    5. Shevchenko/Eremenko — 28
    6. Ushakova/Nekrasov — 26

    Subs
    1. Konkina/Yakushev — 24
    2. Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov — 24
    3. Green/Green — 22

  4. #109
    Mmmmm, tacos. Chemistry66's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SnowWhite View Post
    For ice dance, we have:

    Qualified
    1. Carreira/Ponomarenko — 30
    2. Skoptcova/Aleshin — 28
    3. Polishchuk/Vakhnov — 28
    4. Lajoie/Lagha — 28
    5. Shevchenko/Eremenko — 28
    6. Ushakova/Nekrasov — 26

    Subs
    1. Konkina/Yakushev — 24
    2. Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov — 24
    3. Green/Green — 22
    Yes, and I started a Qualifiers thread in the actual JGPF subforum for ease.

  5. #110
    On the Ice
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    Men JGPF

    Qualified:

    Alexei Krasnozhon 30p
    Alexey Erokhov 30p
    Camden Pulkinen 28p
    Mitsuki Sumoto 24p
    Makar Ignatov 24p
    Andre Torgashev 22p

    Substitute:
    Joseph Phan 22p
    Tomoki Hiwatashi 22p
    Luc Economides 22p

    Rizzo would be 5th subs with 20p (Roman Savosin is 4th subs with 22p), sad that he bombed his first event, otherwise he could go to JGPF

  6. #111
    Mmmmm, tacos. Chemistry66's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatenewbie View Post
    Men JGPF

    Qualified:

    Alexei Krasnozhon 30p
    Alexey Erokhov 30p
    Camden Pulkinen 28p
    Mitsuki Sumoto 24p
    Makar Ignatov 24p
    Andre Torgashev 22p

    Substitute:
    Joseph Phan 22p
    Tomoki Hiwatashi 22p
    Luc Economides 22p

    Rizzo would be 5th subs with 20p (Roman Savosin is 4th subs with 22p), sad that he bombed his first event, otherwise he could go to JGPF
    Already mentioned this in the Qualifiers thread in the JGPF subforum, and I know you saw it, but just so people don't get confused:

    Tomoki Hiwatashi would be the 4th alternate because Phan/Economides/Savosin have 22 points and a 2nd place to win the placement tiebreaker.

  7. #112
    Mmmmm, tacos. Chemistry66's Avatar
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    Ladies

    JGPF qualifiers:

    1) Alexandra Trusova (RUS) - 30 (1st [AUS] + 1st [BLR], 394.01)
    2) Sofia Samodurova (RUS) - 30 (1st [CRO] + 1st [ITA], 380.05)
    2) Alena Kostornaia (RUS) - 30 (1st [POL] + 2nd [ITA], 390.06)
    3) Daria Panenkova (RUS) - 28 (1st [LAT] + 2nd [POL], 382.35)
    5) Anastasia Tarakanova (RUS) - 26 (1st [AUT] + 3rd [CRO], 362.25)
    6) Rika Kihira (JPN) - 24 (2nd [LAT] + 3rd [ITA], 366.27)
    __________________________________________________ _____________________
    R1) Mako Yamashita (JPN) - 24 (2nd [CRO] + 3rd [AUT], 356.79)
    R2) Nana Araki (JPN) - 22 (2nd [BLR] + 4th [ITA], 364)
    R3) Eunsoo Lim (KOR) - 22 (2nd [AUT] + 4th [POL], 348.92)

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