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- Jan 2, 2017
Tsurskaya made mistakes in FS (one was hard but atypical for Polina) so her #5 instead #3 is her own fault.
General talk and questions on top ladies
- Thread starter skateluvr
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Tsurskaya made mistakes in FS (one was hard but atypical for Polina) so her #5 instead #3 is her own fault.
To answer your question on the Olympic panel and under rotated jumps, they seem pretty hard on skaters with under rotated jumps. I counted 25 under rotation calls just in the ladies freeskate in Sochi.
Polina lost 5.34 points of base value by singling the Lutz, and if we assume that she could have had at least +1 GOE on it had she completed it as planned, let's say that was 6 points left on the table.
The other area where Polina left some points on the table as well is losing points on the step sequence (she got level 2) so that was another 1.3 points, which inclusive of +1.5 GOE would be almost another 3 points, so that makes up around 9 points of TES difference already.
Stasya lost around 6 points of TES on the doubled Lutz in the short, so both of them left some points on the table but Polina's mistakes were slightly costlier - taking a quick and dirty assumption that both skaters' BV should be fairly close without mistakes, the TES difference accounts for approximately 3 of the 4 points' differential.
From a PCS point of view, Stasya beat Polina by 2 points in the free, but Polina beat Stasya by around 1 point in the short, so PCS is making up only 1/4 of Stasya's eventual gap over Polina.
My guess is that we may not have to think too much about conspiracy theories in the scoring. Had Polina landed the 3Lz as planned, she would be rightfully taking 4th place ahead of Stasya.
That being said, agree about Polina's international resume being strong enough that the Fed should have put her ahead in priority as an alternate. Even though this is her first senior season, she had dominated the junior scene in the 2015-16 season and was the favourite to win JW until she was sidelined by injury. That should also be counted in her overall potential, in addition to her GP results this season (3rd and 4th with a 210 SB).
Regarding the poor showing of both at last season's JW -- IIRC Stasya had been ill for several weeks after Jr Nats and gone into a downward momentum after, and Polina was still struggling with injury. Both performed abysmally, but then neither was at 100% physically at the time.
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- Oct 26, 2016
If you consider the trend of average scores for Turskaya and Konstantinova (in order to pick up if a skater is improving across the season and weigh that more heavily), they are basically identical. To be cute I quickly computed an exponential moving average with parameter=0.7 and found their moving average scores to be 205.31 for Tsurkaya and 206.61 for Konstantinova. Given that their moving averages are basically the same, Turskaya should be sent because her *potential* to score high is greater than Konstantinova's. But the team is obviously Medvedeva, Sotskova, Zagitova unless someone has to withdraw.
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I object on the basis of the unlikelihood of a skating federation using statitistical logic to reach a decision.
I contend that Masha, Polina, and Stasya should go to Euros and entertain us all in a battle of winner takes all!! I’ll pop the corn!
Its not that simple, since the type of competitions should be considered too.
For instance, Konstantinova never scored over 200 outside russia. Her ONLY scores above 200 are at russian nationals and russian junior nationals.
Take only international competitions, and re-do your analysis
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- Feb 4, 2017
I contend that Masha, Polina, and Stasya should go to Euros and entertain us all in a battle of winner takes all!! I’ll pop the corn!
with this line-up Kostner would win...
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- Feb 4, 2012
Wow, thanks so much for answering. I really didn't expect that high a number. Because the Olympics are usually watched by so many people who don't understand how a 'clean' program scores less than one with a fall, I'd thought they wouldn't be that harsh. I wonder what that means for the ones who usually get underrotations.
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- Nov 28, 2015
??? Is somebody taking senior B competition scores seriously? If any "international" competition counts let's place Radionova over Sotskova because she won at the Shanghai Trophy and that's the most recent international competition Elena competed in.
The scores can be weird everywhere.
Well, to start with, Shanghai Trophy is not even a B.
And imho, senior B competitions count as a corp of work. Id say the medals do not count, since senior B's commonly dont have the same lineup as, lets say, GPF, but the scores totally count.
but even though Shanghai trophy is not even a senior B, lets include it in our analysis.
Radionova:
SP: 70 (CoC) - 68 (Rostelecom) - 64 (Nepela)
FS: 131(Shanghai) - 136 (CoC) - 126 (Rostelecom) - 117 (Nepela)
Sotskova:
SP: 74 (GPF) - 67 (France) - 66 (SC) - 67 (Finlandia)
FS: 142 (GPF) - 128 (Shanghai) - 140 (France) - 126 (SC) - 137 (Finlandia)
Lets compare now:
Radionova scores 64 to 70 in SP, safe bet of 68.
Sotskova scores 66 to 74 in SP, safe bet of 67.
Radionova scores 117 to 136 in FS, a safe bet of 126 to 131.
Sotskova scores 126 to 142 in FS, 128 to 140.
Comparing those scores, if i had to pick one skater out of those 2, it would be Sotskova, with or without Shanghai Trophy.
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- Mar 26, 2014
That's how I see power ranking of top ladies after Europeans. 4CC is the last frontier left before the Olympics but it hardly will bring changes as some of the top skaters won't be there.
1. Zagitova (+1) - that's the biggest change. With the world record of 238 and 2 powerful programs which she skated clean she is the main OGM contender now. She has not lost a single senior competition with only 1 competition she did not win in her international career including juniors.
2. Medvedeva (-1) - no one can beat clean Medvedeva. I would still hold to that slogan. But this time it means that she has to be crystal clean: no stumbles and only secure landings. After the injury she is trying to get her famous consistency back. To win over Zagitova she might need to enhance her TES which is risky.
There is a big gap between those two and the rest of the field.
3. Miyahara (+2) - she is at the mercy of a technical panel in any competition she enters because of her multiple URs. But she is consistent and artistic. As the Games are in Asia and Satoko is the leading Japanese lady I would think that she will be judged leniently.
4. Osmond (-1) - same as with Gracie a while ago: if she skates 2 clean programs she can get any podium. But she never skated 2 clean programs.
5. Kostner (-1) - big brand equity, very strong SP. But if she has another disastrous FS like in Moscow she might struggle to get into top-10 at the Olympics.
6. Daleman (+3) - winning the Nationals with 2 clean programs improved Gabby's ranking. Still no successful international competitions this season.
7. Tennel (+1) - clear US #1 lady now. Very consistent. Still has many areas for development to become a podium contender.
8. Sakamoto (-1) - good jumps, strong SP. If the panel gets tough about Satoko's URs Kaori might be pushed up. Otherwise, her FP is not that good as it shows that she is still a skater in progress.
9. Sotskova (-1) - she has the third team spot. She is GPF medalist. But after she was judged the way she was judged in Moscow I think that getting into top-10 is the maximum she can think of.
10. - 12. Chen, Nagasu, Tursynbaeva. I think that those three can bring a good fight to be in top-10 but top-5 is out of question unless there are multiple major meltdowns by others.
1. Zagitova (+1) - that's the biggest change. With the world record of 238 and 2 powerful programs which she skated clean she is the main OGM contender now. She has not lost a single senior competition with only 1 competition she did not win in her international career including juniors.
2. Medvedeva (-1) - no one can beat clean Medvedeva. I would still hold to that slogan. But this time it means that she has to be crystal clean: no stumbles and only secure landings. After the injury she is trying to get her famous consistency back. To win over Zagitova she might need to enhance her TES which is risky.
There is a big gap between those two and the rest of the field.
3. Miyahara (+2) - she is at the mercy of a technical panel in any competition she enters because of her multiple URs. But she is consistent and artistic. As the Games are in Asia and Satoko is the leading Japanese lady I would think that she will be judged leniently.
4. Osmond (-1) - same as with Gracie a while ago: if she skates 2 clean programs she can get any podium. But she never skated 2 clean programs.
5. Kostner (-1) - big brand equity, very strong SP. But if she has another disastrous FS like in Moscow she might struggle to get into top-10 at the Olympics.
6. Daleman (+3) - winning the Nationals with 2 clean programs improved Gabby's ranking. Still no successful international competitions this season.
7. Tennel (+1) - clear US #1 lady now. Very consistent. Still has many areas for development to become a podium contender.
8. Sakamoto (-1) - good jumps, strong SP. If the panel gets tough about Satoko's URs Kaori might be pushed up. Otherwise, her FP is not that good as it shows that she is still a skater in progress.
9. Sotskova (-1) - she has the third team spot. She is GPF medalist. But after she was judged the way she was judged in Moscow I think that getting into top-10 is the maximum she can think of.
10. - 12. Chen, Nagasu, Tursynbaeva. I think that those three can bring a good fight to be in top-10 but top-5 is out of question unless there are multiple major meltdowns by others.
238 isn’t the world record. Evgenia received a (ridiculous) 241 at the 2017 World Team Trophy.
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- Apr 24, 2017
Let me add, she lost to Marin Honda that one time.
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- Jun 9, 2014
Let me add, she lost to Marin Honda that one time.
"Let me add, she lost to Rika Kihara* that one time"
Fix it for you
