2018 Olympic Season: Ladies Figure Skating

stormblade said:

Karen skated her international best at 2017 Worlds but the ladies field was arguably quite weaker there. Only three ladies broke 200+ in Helsinki compared to the seven ladies in Boston at 2016 Worlds. I love Karen and hope she makes the team since she saved the three spots for US ladies singlehandedly but her inconsistency and her constant program changes are worrying. I don't know what her team is doing.

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Arguably as you state, as each podium finisher in Helsinki, had a better total score per podium placement than in Boston. To be honest, I don't see the Boston Silver/Bronze medalists repeating their finishes, at the Olympics.

So, ...weaker, was it? :noshake:

Osmond4gold said:

Arguably as you state, as each podium finisher in Helsinki, had a better total score per podium placement than in Boston. To be honest, I don't see the Boston Silver/Bronze medalists repeating their finishes, at the Olympics.

So, ...weaker, was it? :noshake:

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Of course it was not my intention to discount Medvedeva, Osmond or Daleman's performances! They skated brilliantly at Worlds and easily had some of the most standout performances of the night. When I was talking about "strength of the field", I was simply referring to the greater number of skaters who broke the 200+, the minimum score threshold required for a podium finish in the ladies. 200 would have warranted an 8th place finish in Boston! Wagner and Pogorilaya were unfortunately unable to repeat their podium finishes in Helsinki. Wagner was not so much a surprise, Pogorilaya's meltdown definitely was .

Osmond4gold said:

To be honest, I don't see the Boston Silver/Bronze medalists repeating their finishes, at the Olympics.

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You can count Anna out since she said she isn’t going to compete this season. Who knows with Ashley who is always inconsistent but a tough one to count out entirely.

Anyone else feel that Carolina is building a lot of momentum and think she just might find a spot on what could be a very contested podium.

Sam-Skwantch said:

You can count Anna out since she said she isn’t going to compete this season. Who knows with Ashley who is always inconsistent but a tough one to count out entirely.

Anyone else feel that Carolina is building a lot of momentum and think she just might find a spot on what could be a very contested podium.

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Absolutely! She just did the triple flip, triple toe at Italian nationals and got 81 for the short!

If Carolina hits her 3-3 combinations in the short and the free, I see a mini chance for Gold. It depends on the form of Medvedeva when she returns. Carolina skating clean will bury Zagitova in PCS. I believe that a Russian Sweep is not wanted in PC. There are two skaters who can prevent it, imho, Carolina and Kaetlyn.

Ugh. Not looking forward to overscoring of non-Russians to break the sweep
Medvedeva had better win.

Osmond4gold said:

Arguably as you state, as each podium finisher in Helsinki, had a better total score per podium placement than in Boston. To be honest, I don't see the Boston Silver/Bronze medalists repeating their finishes, at the Olympics.

So, ...weaker, was it? :noshake:

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And I don’t see Daleman in contention, and if Osmond keeps up the I can’t skate a clean free skate, someone else will definitely beat out of the bronze in Pyeongchang

Spirals for Miles said:

Ugh. Not looking forward to overscoring of non-Russians to break the sweep
Medvedeva had better win.

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Im sorry, WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY?!?! RUSSIANS ARE OVERSCORED WAYYYYY MORE THAN EVERYONE ELSE IN THE WORLD!

AshWagsFan said:

And I don’t see Daleman in contention, and if Osmond keeps up the I can’t skate a clean free skate, someone else will definitely beat out of the bronze in Pyeongchang

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Well, Kaetlyn won her World silver with a popped 3L and a messy landing on another jumping pass. And she was around a point behind Maria at GPF, so she didn't need a totally clean FS for silver there, just a slightly cleaner one. I think she, Carolina and Maria are the favourites for the bronze, though others like Satoko and Wakaba could get in there too. Obviously, the more mistakes she makes in the free, the more her chances go down, but it's not accurate imo to say she can't get bronze unless she's totally clean in the free. She's getting better PCS and better GOE (she had ~0.5 more in GOE even with a messier skate) than Maria, and better SP scores, so she has a small margin there. Now if Carolina comes out and lands her increased tech content clean, she'll be difficult for any of them to beat.

SnowWhite said:

Well, Kaetlyn won her World silver with a popped 3L and a messy landing on another jumping pass. And she was around a point behind Maria at GPF, so she didn't need a totally clean FS for silver there, just a slightly cleaner one. I think she, Carolina and Maria are the favourites for the bronze, though others like Satoko and Wakaba could get in there too. Obviously, the more mistakes she makes in the free, the more her chances go down, but it's not accurate imo to say she can't get bronze unless she's totally clean in the free. She's getting better PCS and better GOE (she had ~0.5 more in GOE even with a messier skate) than Maria, and better SP scores, so she has a small margin there. Now if Carolina comes out and lands her increased tech content clean, she'll be difficult for any of them to beat.

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I understand that I just wonder if the PCS will go down slightly as we’ve seen with so many other skaters when they lose consistency...

AshWagsFan said:

I understand that I just wonder if the PCS will go down slightly as we’ve seen with so many other skaters when they lose consistency...

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But she's never had consistency, at least not in the free. Someone like Maria's might rise if she remains consistent and close the gap a bit, but I've never seen Kaetlyn skate a totally clean free and that doesn't seem to have affected her PCS.

SnowWhite said:

But she's never had consistency, at least not in the free. Someone like Maria's might rise if she remains consistent and close the gap a bit, but I've never seen Kaetlyn skate a totally clean free and that doesn't seem to have affected her PCS.

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True, very true. It boggles my mind, but I guess the judges just really like kaetlyn lol. Btw I don’t hate her, it just frustrates me actually

SnowWhite said:

But she's never had consistency, at least not in the free. Someone like Maria's might rise if she remains consistent and close the gap a bit, but I've never seen Kaetlyn skate a totally clean free and that doesn't seem to have affected her PCS.

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Her focus is to skate to excellence not perfect Snow. When one skates that fast with that much Power, it can be exhausting versus a slower skater with smaller jumps. A program with limited imperfections is my hope. For the record, there have been few elite skaters that have skated 2 cleans all season.

AshWagsFan said:

Im sorry, WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY?!?! RUSSIANS ARE OVERSCORED WAYYYYY MORE THAN EVERYONE ELSE IN THE WORLD!

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I feel like that's not happening any more.
Others are starting to be overscored just as much now.
But we digress and I don't like infractions.

It's been a while since I posted one of these, but...
heading into nationals season:

Power List:
1. Medvedeva: still unbeaten, coming back, the queen.
2. Zagitova: won the GPF even with mistakes, clearly Russia's #2
3. Kostner: increasing her tech content --> much higher scores than even what she was getting before. Can she hit it all though?
4. Sotskova: consistent, gaining momentum, seems to be a clear pick for Russia's #3. Silver at GPF.
5. Osmond: still can't get a clean FS but her SP keeps her in contention. Bronze at GPF.
6. Miyahara: she either gets UR calls or she doesn't. When she doesn't, her scores are really high thanks to good spins, steps, and PCS
7. Higuchi: explosive, impressive skater but struggles with nerves. Last at GPF.
8. Tennell: ability to becomes US #1 this season
9. Tsurskaya: almost certainly not going to get a spot unless Sotskova bombs at nationals and she beats her. Very good jumps.
10. Daleman: still looking for her to regain form but once she does she'll be incredible. The question is: will she?

HM: Sakamato + Mihara: anxiously awaiting Japanese nationals to see if they can get on the team
Nagasu: seems to be fixing her UR issues somewhat, the 3A helps her, could easily get on the team if she performs like she did at NHK at Nationals, especially if others bomb
Tursynbaeva: finally cracked 200, on a upward momentum it seems
Wagner: if she comes back from her ankle infection and is somewhat clean, she'll get high PCS
Radionova: you can never count her out.

Not looking so good for: Honda: unless she wins Nationals, she probably won't be going to the Olympics
Tuktamysheva: rough start to her season leaves her with barely any chance of making the team
Pogorilaya: ended her season due to injury, hope she recovers well and soon
Li: seems to be injured, not sure if she can go to the Olympics or not, probably not as her teammate has been looking stronger
Chen: rough skates and lots of program switching, always been inconsistent
Choi: struggling a bit but still good chances of making the team. Looking unlikely to repeat her success from worlds last year
Hicks: good start at SC but downhill from there, not a Nationals peaker either

Question: What’s up with the Korean ladies? Who is going and how many spots do they have? I’ve enjoyed watching them developing over the years and skaters like Da-bin and So-youn have really grown on me. A year or two ago I would have expected to see at least one of them somewhat in the mix. Now it’s all injuries and withdrawals I’m seeing. It’s making me sad...someone cheer me up...give me some hope

Sam-Skwantch said:

Question: What’s up with the Korean ladies? Who is going and how many spots do they have? I’ve enjoyed watching them developing over the years and skaters like Da-bin and So-youn have really grown on me. A year or two ago I would have expected to see at least one of them somewhat in the mix. Now it’s all injuries and withdrawals I’m seeing. It’s making me sad...someone cheer me up...give me some hope

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I think there are to potentials So Youn An and Hanul Kim.
So Youn An don't know much about her, but she did well in one Senoir B competion that she came in first in the Short program.
Hanul Kim was second the first qualifying competion and was fourth in the Shanghai Trophee and was 6th (above Soyoun ) in the second qualifying competition.

SnowWhite said:

But she's never had consistency, at least not in the free. Someone like Maria's might rise if she remains consistent and close the gap a bit, but I've never seen Kaetlyn skate a totally clean free and that doesn't seem to have affected her PCS.

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I second this. "High PCS due to consistency" has become a joke since we have Osmond (no clean FS) and Zagitova (no clean SP).

AshWagsFan said:

True, very true. It boggles my mind, but I guess the judges just really like kaetlyn lol. Btw I don’t hate her, it just frustrates me actually

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I don't have a problem personally with Kaetlyn Osmond components to be honest. People make it appear like she truly bombs her free program everytime, but that's not the case. The last time it happened was at 4CC in 2016 in international competition iirc. Sure she makes errors on her jumps here or there - sure, but even after fall she gets up quickly and recuperates well. Kaetlyn is fast (it makes skating more appealing to watch at least for me usually), still she's clearly connected with the music, her lines & choreography are objectively top-notch, she projects well (even if admittedly I am not a fan of her Black Swan LP), elements are placed in different parts of the rink, she makes me feel something when I watch her skate. There are multiple positive qualities in her skating that make her stand out otherwise and PCS are not supposed to be rewarded for your consistency, contrary to what people preach here. It can help you as in having more opportunities to compel judges to you but it's not prerequisite. It's not written down in any criteria for any component!

Sam-Skwantch said:

Question: What’s up with the Korean ladies? Who is going and how many spots do they have? I’ve enjoyed watching them developing over the years and skaters like Da-bin and So-youn have really grown on me. A year or two ago I would have expected to see at least one of them somewhat in the mix. Now it’s all injuries and withdrawals I’m seeing. It’s making me sad...someone cheer me up...give me some hope

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They have two spots.

Ares said:

I don't have a problem personally with Kaetlyn Osmond components to be honest. People make it appear like she truly bombs her free program everytime, but that's not the case. The last time it happened was at 4CC in 2016 in international competition iirc. Sure she makes errors on her jumps here or there - sure, but even after fall she gets up quickly and recuperates well. Kaetlyn is fast (it makes skating more appealing to watch at least for me), but still she's clearly connected with the music, her lines & choreography are objectively top-notch (even if admittedly I am not a fan of her Black Swan LP), elements are placed in different parts of the rink, she makes me feel something. There are multiple positive qualities in her skating that make her stand out otherwise and PCS are not supposed to be rewarded for your consistency, contrary to what people preach here. It can help you as in having more opportunities to compel judges to you but it's not prerequisite. It's not written down in any criteria for any component!

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What we often forget is that "normal" skaters often make mistakes: as fans of the very top skaters we are "spoiled", since we always expect them to skate clean. True, to be at the top you need clean performances, but this doesn't mean that a performance with one or two mistakes is a "bombed" one