2018 Olympic Season: Ladies Figure Skating

My three picks - assuming Osmond brings two A-game performances and Daleman doesn't change a thing from her performances in Vancouver:

Osmond
Daleman
Medvedeva

There. If Kaetlyn Osmond so much as flubs one landing, it's anybody's fight for the Gold. Could easily be Gabby Daleman's to go grab, very easily. But there's something in Katelyn that's about to go off in South Korea and no, it's not an anti-ballistic missile defense!

karakaka said:

6. Sotskova. Will there be URs? Will they be called?

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This question should concern Miyahara even more than Sotskova...

AvgeekJoe said:

My three picks - assuming Osmond brings two A-game performances and Daleman doesn't change a thing from her performances in Vancouver:

Osmond
Daleman
Medvedeva

There. If Kaetlyn Osmond so much as flubs one landing, it's anybody's fight for the Gold. Could easily be Gabby Daleman's to go grab, very easily. But there's something in Katelyn that's about to go off in South Korea and no, it's not an anti-ballistic missile defense!

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have you forgotten the wonderful talent named Alina Zagitova??
or the one named Kaori Sakamoto??
are you underestimating the awesome powers of Evgenia Medvedeva??
#realquestions

Spirals for Miles said:

have you forgotten the wonderful talent named Alina Zagitova??
or the one named Kaori Sakamoto??
are you underestimating the awesome powers of Evgenia Medvedeva??
#realquestions

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Kaori is more of a dark horse imo. She got 214.21 in Asia with two very clean skates. Kaetlyn got 215.16 at the GPF with an !, a 2Lo and a 3S< fall. Different panels and all, but my point being that Kaori will likely be there to take advantage of other skater's mistakes, but there are ladies who can beat her without being totally clean. Gabby is a bit in the same category - not the most refined skater ever (not absolute top SS, spins, etc), but great jumps and capable of being a great competitor. Kaori has the higher BV, but I still see them as in the same position. Kaori has been more consistent, but Gabby has done much better in the later part of the season in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if she keeps up her Nationals performance.

I see it as Evgenia and Aline fighting for gold, with the other still on the podium (likely silver, unless Alina struggles with nerves because she is less experienced that Zhenya, then she could slip to bronze). Then all of Kaetlyn, Carolina, Maria, Satoko, Kaori and Gabby being in contention for bronze, with some more likely that others. Kaetlyn and Carolina aren't consistent, but get very good GOE and PCS (whether you agree with that or not, they do). They are probably the only two who don't have to skate totally clean to get the bronze. And they are likely to be in good position after the SP. I've already talked about Kaori and Gabby, and I think their biggest advantage is that they are the only ones of these girls coming in with tons of confidence. The others all had rough last events (although for Kaetlyn, more so than the others that could be a good thing, since she had her worst event at 4CC last season and then her best at Worlds - she said it helped her refocus mentally). Satoko and Maria are both somewhat dependant on the panel, because they have a tendency to UR more than the others. But it's the panel from SA and they weren't too hard on Satoko. With Maria, it's hard to know. The judges were really with her at GPF and really not at Euros, though she also skated quite a bit better at GPF. Also, last season she skated best in the first half, then struggled a bit more at Euros and Worlds, and she has now had rough skates at both Nationals and Euros, so I'm not sure what to expect from her.

Also, who knows how the team event will play into things. I would guess that we'll see Evgenia/Alina, Kaetlyn/Gabby, Satoko/Kaori (if Japan makes the FS). Maria won't do it, and I don't know what Carolina will decide.

ETA: reposted on another thread

[email protected] said:

My thoughts about the final group if everyone is cristal clean with the planned content:

1. Medvedeva Her pcs and GOE will make up for the BV deficit. 81+160=241
2. Zagitova The highest BV and fast pcs rise. But I think she maxed it at the Europeans 80+158=238
3. Kostner She has Medvedeva level pcs (basically near 40 and 80). The key difference is inability to backload 79+153= 232
4. Osmond She has high but not exactly Kostner's pcs and she does not backload big combos 78+152=230
5. Miyahara URs will be neglected, skating skills and spins will be appreciated 76+149=225
6. Nagasu If she delivers clean 3A at SP she is in the last group. But pcs will not allow her to get higher place than that 77+143=220

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I understand where you’re coming from, but I have to disagree. If most everyone skates crystal clean with the planned content, Nagasu and Miyahara only have a slight chance of making the final group. It’s been proven that satoko’s spins and SS will definitely not be appreciated as much as others’. I believe that if the short program portion were skated crystal clean by most everyone, the final group is
Alina
Evgenia
Carolina
Kaetlyn
Maria
???

Spirals for Miles said:

have you forgotten the wonderful talent named Alina Zagitova??
or the one named Kaori Sakamoto??
are you underestimating the awesome powers of Evgenia Medvedeva??
#realquestions

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ICYMI: I'm a Yank for (Kaetlyn) Osmond.

AvgeekJoe said:

ICYMI: I'm a Yank for (Kaetlyn) Osmond.

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Quite a catchy phrase it is. :dance:

AvgeekJoe said:

My three picks - assuming Osmond brings two A-game performances and Daleman doesn't change a thing from her performances in Vancouver:

Osmond
Daleman
Medvedeva

There. If Kaetlyn Osmond so much as flubs one landing, it's anybody's fight for the Gold. Could easily be Gabby Daleman's to go grab, very easily. But there's something in Katelyn that's about to go off in South Korea and no, it's not an anti-ballistic missile defense!

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Let it be so!

klutzy said:

Bradie Tennell's scores will go up now that she's U.S. champion--she scored 200 with minimal backing/boosting from her federation. That said, it would take a ton of luck for her to get the bronze. She's not getting gold unless a massive break of food poisoning takes out the Russians, Canadians, Japanese and Carolina Kostner. However, the fed boost, if she skates clean, will get her higher than eighth.

She has speed, spins and fully rotated jumps. She's also in sync with her music and has choreography that tells a story. Her "lack" of artistry is mostly poor arms and not enough facial interpretation, but I think she's being overcriticized in this area because she hasn't been a fan-favorite.

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Bradie ISU standing is 11... 11, Carl! Between her & the first 3 is 30+... 30+, Carl!!
Her last ISU points at Skate America FS 72.68/64.41=137.09+SP 67.01=204.10
US FS Ch 219.51 - where did they get 15.41 more in 1,5 month?

ISU EFSC
Zagitova FS Base 66.01+GOE16.66=82.67 + 75.30=157.97 + SP 34.97+GOE9.02=43.99+36.28=80.27=238.24
Medvedeva FS Base 62.76+GOE14.39=77.15 + 77.14=154.29 + SP 33.10+GOE7.33=40.43+38.14=78.57=232.86

Bradie's lack of "artistry" is related to her skating style— very "junior" looking. I would say most top 8 U.S. ladies at the national are have better expressions. She rotates her jumps but her jumps are not in the "spectacular" league like some of Gabby or Osmond's. Her skinny build adds more to her junior look. She is around 20 but if you don't tell me I would think she is at most 17. So overall, after watching her the entire season, I still tend to think her jumps are fine because she is pre-puberty. That being said,she will probably be the top ranked American lady in South Korea.

How many skaters will get “cut” after the SP and not make it to the FS?

Sam-Skwantch said:

How many skaters will get “cut” after the SP and not make it to the FS?

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I believe 6. Top 24 move on just like Worlds.

I'd guess that 4 of those cut will be:
- Larkyn AUSTMAN CAN
- Aiza MAMBEKOVA KAZ
- Diana NIKITINA LAT
- Giada RUSSO ITA

Just based on SP scores this season. Then maybe Emmi Peltonen and one more.

I think the cuts will be:
Larkyn Austman
Aiza Mambekova
Anna Khynchenkova (sp?)
Isadora Williams
Giada Russo
and one more. I think Diana's euros was a fluke.

brens78 said:

Very good assessment! I had a dream several months ago ( even put it in my dream scenarios thread ) that Caro won gold when she nailed everything, Evgenia got silver when she had a fall and Satoko got bronze with a clean program. It’s a possible outcome but not sure, we will find out in less than a month

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Did Zagitova took the wrong flight to Pyeongyang, North Korea instead of Pyeongchang, South Korea in your dream?

Out of all the women, I cannot see Mambekova, Williams, or Austman making it to the free skate.
I'd then say Khnychenkova and Russo are unlikely to make it to the free skate.
Then I'd say any of Peltonen, Ostlund, Paganini, or Nikitina could be the last girl to not make it to the free skate.

Spirals for Miles said:

I think the cuts will be:
Larkyn Austman
Aiza Mambekova
Anna Khynchenkova (sp?)
Isadora Williams
Giada Russo
and one more. I think Diana's euros was a fluke.

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I said her because her CS score was also under 50. She got 48.37 at ONT, 48.40 at Golden Bear, 48.46 at Cup of Tyrol and 36.71 at Euros. ~48 won't be good enough.

I think it will probably be the four I named then two of Isadora Williams, Anna Khynchenkova, and Emmi.

rlopen said:

Out of all the women, I cannot see Mambekova, Williams, or Austman making it to the free skate.
I'd then say Khnychenkova and Russo are unlikely to make it to the free skate.
Then I'd say any of Peltonen, Ostlund, Paganini, or Nikitina could be the last girl to not make it to the free skate.

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I agree.
But I do love Mambekova and Russo

Is anybody following Medvedeva's practices?

I have this fear that she'll change the element order of her FS to have all the jumps in the second half
Thus making it annoying to watch but that much more rewarded by the judges...

I don't think that those who have been annoyed by Zhenya over the last seasons can be annoyed even more but, of course, I can be wrong.