2018 Olympic Season: Ladies Figure Skating
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GPF thoughts for Carolina Kostner
Carolina needs to decide if she wants to be competitive and go for the Olympic Gold medal or if she wants to coast and skate for the joy skating and let me know because she's giving me hard attacks. Unfortunately, it looks like she's decided to do the latter. Things is though, the judges are giving her clear hints that they would give her the Gold medal if she went for it.
Short program: Had she not popped that second triple toe in her opening she would have had about 5 more points in the technical, and more than likely 1 more point in the program components, for a total of 78.82 which would have put her first here. Were she to upgrade her opening to a triple flip, triple toe, she'd get a couple more points on top of that for a total of 80.82 and be more than competitve with Medvedeva.
Long program: Had she gone for the opening triple flip, triple toe and not doubled the triple salchow she would have had about 10 more points in the technical, and probably another 2 more points in the program components, for a total of 153.83 which, again, would have placed her first here. Were she to add the triple lutz to the long program, which she has been landing in practice, you can add another 6 points to her technical score for 159.83 and that would put her even ahead of Medvedeva.
It kills me that she was less than 2 points away from winning the silver medal here. The fact that she was able to do this with 3 pops in this competition, and no triple lutz, is amazing. My advise to her would be to upgrade everything for nationals, where she has nothing to lose, and see how it goes and then show up to Europeans with 2 new dresses and upgraded technical content. She's already got a bronze at the Olympics so I'd tell her to go for the gold medal- she has nothing to lose. She doesn't want to live her life wondering if she could have won it. No regrets, Carolina. Go for it!
Ps- I saw a video of her doing a triple lutz as the opening jump to this program so she may do that and then go for the triple flip/triple toe and keep the rest of the program like it was here. Put the hardest content at the beginning and the easier jumps in the second half after a breather. The key her is the triple flip/triple toe- it used to her money maker and very consistent. She really needs to focus and get this back in the next couple weeks.
Carolina needs to decide if she wants to be competitive and go for the Olympic Gold medal or if she wants to coast and skate for the joy skating and let me know because she's giving me hard attacks. Unfortunately, it looks like she's decided to do the latter. Things is though, the judges are giving her clear hints that they would give her the Gold medal if she went for it.
Short program: Had she not popped that second triple toe in her opening she would have had about 5 more points in the technical, and more than likely 1 more point in the program components, for a total of 78.82 which would have put her first here. Were she to upgrade her opening to a triple flip, triple toe, she'd get a couple more points on top of that for a total of 80.82 and be more than competitve with Medvedeva.
Long program: Had she gone for the opening triple flip, triple toe and not doubled the triple salchow she would have had about 10 more points in the technical, and probably another 2 more points in the program components, for a total of 153.83 which, again, would have placed her first here. Were she to add the triple lutz to the long program, which she has been landing in practice, you can add another 6 points to her technical score for 159.83 and that would put her even ahead of Medvedeva.
It kills me that she was less than 2 points away from winning the silver medal here. The fact that she was able to do this with 3 pops in this competition, and no triple lutz, is amazing. My advise to her would be to upgrade everything for nationals, where she has nothing to lose, and see how it goes and then show up to Europeans with 2 new dresses and upgraded technical content. She's already got a bronze at the Olympics so I'd tell her to go for the gold medal- she has nothing to lose. She doesn't want to live her life wondering if she could have won it. No regrets, Carolina. Go for it!
Ps- I saw a video of her doing a triple lutz as the opening jump to this program so she may do that and then go for the triple flip/triple toe and keep the rest of the program like it was here. Put the hardest content at the beginning and the easier jumps in the second half after a breather. The key her is the triple flip/triple toe- it used to her money maker and very consistent. She really needs to focus and get this back in the next couple weeks.
I do recall that she didn't have the 3Lz in 2013/14, but she rolled it out in Sochi and it was perfect. Maybe she'll surprise us again? Agreed that the 3F/3T combo is key.
I have a feeling she's building things slowly rather bringing everything out at once. Maybe she'll do it all in nationals and fine-tune for Euros / OG.
My thoughts on the GPF:
- Alina won easily. Her FS for once didn't have its usual polish, I just wonder if it's the physical toll combined with the pressure of being the favourite got to her a little bit. She still looks polished overall, and she just about nailed her SP, putting her in great shape for OG.
- Maria was the happy surprise of the day for me. She's often overlooked in conversation but today she was marvelous. There's a delicacy and sensibility in her musicality that is often overlooked, and she's established herself as the Russian lady who will be the most consistent. She's looking at a solid third place on her national team behind Zhenya and Alina. Well done!
- Kaetlyn looks somewhat more comfortable with the FS, but she needs to invest in an acting coach. She's not expressive facially even though she seems to have improved the posture and extension for her Black Swan. I still think that she doesn't wear the program, the program wears her. And I happen to think she's the best jumper in the world for height, speed and distance. She still needs to rely on her SP to keep herself in the conversation, she placed 3rd at IDF and GPF based on her lead.
- Caro was magnificent, plain and simple. She couldn't have done more to get on the podium, but as JackWalker said, she needs the 3Lz and her moneymaker 3F/3T combo to be taken more seriously. It's starting to become a little like an exhibition number if she doesn't go for broke. I'm optimistic she will get there in time.
- Satoko was sent a VERY big message today. The drop in her TES was steep. The fact that she was reviewed on just about every jump and downgraded, at a home competition, means she won't enjoy the same advantage in Korea. She skates beautifully but the judges did the same thing they did to Mao in 2016 worlds, who also saw a major drop in her TES when the score was actually posted. Satoko is looking at a top 5 finish in PyeongChang, but a medal will only happen if she's consistent and everyone else is a mess.
- Wakaba crumbled unfortunately, but it's her first GPF and even Masha found the occasion to be overwhelming last year. She's a solid 2nd nationally, especially since Mihara and Honda aren't up to this level internationally yet.
Takeaway: Alina established herself as OGM contender, but we haven't seen her head to head with Zhenya yet. It'll be a battle for the ages when it happens. Masha's placement is the judges telling everyone that guess what, the Russian ladies could very well sweep the podium. Kaetlyn is good but she needs to skate a clean FS for once. She still can't do it to save her life at this point, but I'm hopeful she will peak at PyeongChang. Carolina needs to up her technical content, her CPS is off the chart and at this point really unquestioned. She needs more to place or show, and not just compete for 5th. Satoko won't have time to increase the height of her jumps at this point, she just needs to stay consistent if she wants to get on the podium. This is a learning experience for Wakaba, who I think will be Japanese #1 a year from now. And all this is of course dependent on Zhenya and how well she's healing. Also, it'd have been nice to see how Ashley and her new La La Land program stack up.
- Alina won easily. Her FS for once didn't have its usual polish, I just wonder if it's the physical toll combined with the pressure of being the favourite got to her a little bit. She still looks polished overall, and she just about nailed her SP, putting her in great shape for OG.
- Maria was the happy surprise of the day for me. She's often overlooked in conversation but today she was marvelous. There's a delicacy and sensibility in her musicality that is often overlooked, and she's established herself as the Russian lady who will be the most consistent. She's looking at a solid third place on her national team behind Zhenya and Alina. Well done!
- Kaetlyn looks somewhat more comfortable with the FS, but she needs to invest in an acting coach. She's not expressive facially even though she seems to have improved the posture and extension for her Black Swan. I still think that she doesn't wear the program, the program wears her. And I happen to think she's the best jumper in the world for height, speed and distance. She still needs to rely on her SP to keep herself in the conversation, she placed 3rd at IDF and GPF based on her lead.
- Caro was magnificent, plain and simple. She couldn't have done more to get on the podium, but as JackWalker said, she needs the 3Lz and her moneymaker 3F/3T combo to be taken more seriously. It's starting to become a little like an exhibition number if she doesn't go for broke. I'm optimistic she will get there in time.
- Satoko was sent a VERY big message today. The drop in her TES was steep. The fact that she was reviewed on just about every jump and downgraded, at a home competition, means she won't enjoy the same advantage in Korea. She skates beautifully but the judges did the same thing they did to Mao in 2016 worlds, who also saw a major drop in her TES when the score was actually posted. Satoko is looking at a top 5 finish in PyeongChang, but a medal will only happen if she's consistent and everyone else is a mess.
- Wakaba crumbled unfortunately, but it's her first GPF and even Masha found the occasion to be overwhelming last year. She's a solid 2nd nationally, especially since Mihara and Honda aren't up to this level internationally yet.
Takeaway: Alina established herself as OGM contender, but we haven't seen her head to head with Zhenya yet. It'll be a battle for the ages when it happens. Masha's placement is the judges telling everyone that guess what, the Russian ladies could very well sweep the podium. Kaetlyn is good but she needs to skate a clean FS for once. She still can't do it to save her life at this point, but I'm hopeful she will peak at PyeongChang. Carolina needs to up her technical content, her CPS is off the chart and at this point really unquestioned. She needs more to place or show, and not just compete for 5th. Satoko won't have time to increase the height of her jumps at this point, she just needs to stay consistent if she wants to get on the podium. This is a learning experience for Wakaba, who I think will be Japanese #1 a year from now. And all this is of course dependent on Zhenya and how well she's healing. Also, it'd have been nice to see how Ashley and her new La La Land program stack up.
Thanks for saying so many nice things about Masha! I am sure she will be flattered to read that!
She's earned it! And yes, I know she speaks excellent English after spending some time a couple of years back with Rafael Artunyan in California (she's also friends with Adam!), so if you're reading this: hi Masha, congratulations and good luck on the rest of the season!
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- Feb 4, 2017
Interesting though that at this moment Masha looks to be the most consistent russian lady, she had no serious mistakes at GP stages and in GP final as well, when both Zhenya and Alina had multiple mistakes. Who would have thought!
Maybe she'll win that OGM eventually... it seems that Buyanova has good luck at Olympics
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My takeaways from the GPF:
Zagitova:Could beat Med at Nationals and Olympics because of her super high scores even when she makes mistakes. Not my favorite skater by any means, just being realistic.
Sotskova:Still think about calling her Snoozekova while she skates. Very boring, but kudos to her for performing here and probably securing the third Olympic spot.
Osmond:Oh Kaetlyn, if you can’t hit a clean free skate, while are you still being scored so high? She has the potential, but for being unable to deliver time and time again, I really think her scores should be lowered so she gets the message that if she wants to be competitive, she needs to be clean.
Kostner:Still would be my dream for her to win an Olympic medal, but she needs to up the technical difficulty. She could even be up with Medvedeva if she added in the lutz and the triple triple! Best of luck to you Carolina, I hope the rest of your season goes well!
Miyahara:Still one of the most elegant skaters I’ve seen, it’s a shame her components aren’t higher. Her consistency is back, I just hope she can rotate everything in Pyeongchang! Good luck Satoko!
Higuchi:She imploded among everyone else’s strong skates here, which worries me for whether or not she can stay mentally checked in at Nationals and the Olympics. I think this makes her slightly more vulnerable going into Nationals, but the second spot still seems pretty much to be hers.
Everyone:Everyone should take away from this competition that we now know Zagotova and Medvedeva are going to be 1/2 in Pyeongchang(unless Carolina miraculously is flawless with difficult content). It’s a battle for bronze between Miyahara, Sotskova, Higuchi, Wagner, Kostner, and Osmond. Who gets it really depends on the skates of the night, the calls, and th3 judges... oh what a journey this will be!
Zagitova:Could beat Med at Nationals and Olympics because of her super high scores even when she makes mistakes. Not my favorite skater by any means, just being realistic.
Sotskova:Still think about calling her Snoozekova while she skates. Very boring, but kudos to her for performing here and probably securing the third Olympic spot.
Osmond:Oh Kaetlyn, if you can’t hit a clean free skate, while are you still being scored so high? She has the potential, but for being unable to deliver time and time again, I really think her scores should be lowered so she gets the message that if she wants to be competitive, she needs to be clean.
Kostner:Still would be my dream for her to win an Olympic medal, but she needs to up the technical difficulty. She could even be up with Medvedeva if she added in the lutz and the triple triple! Best of luck to you Carolina, I hope the rest of your season goes well!
Miyahara:Still one of the most elegant skaters I’ve seen, it’s a shame her components aren’t higher. Her consistency is back, I just hope she can rotate everything in Pyeongchang! Good luck Satoko!
Higuchi:She imploded among everyone else’s strong skates here, which worries me for whether or not she can stay mentally checked in at Nationals and the Olympics. I think this makes her slightly more vulnerable going into Nationals, but the second spot still seems pretty much to be hers.
Everyone:Everyone should take away from this competition that we now know Zagotova and Medvedeva are going to be 1/2 in Pyeongchang(unless Carolina miraculously is flawless with difficult content). It’s a battle for bronze between Miyahara, Sotskova, Higuchi, Wagner, Kostner, and Osmond. Who gets it really depends on the skates of the night, the calls, and th3 judges... oh what a journey this will be!
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I'm sorry, how is Wagner in the mix for an individual Olympic medal?
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I'm sorry, how is Wagner in the mix for an individual Olympic medal?
Sorry guys, gotta support my girl... also if they all mess up and she’s flawless she has a chance, ik it’s a long shot but I’m hoping for the best, no need to rain on my parade!
Sorry guys, gotta support my girl... also if they all mess up and she’s flawless she has a chance, ik it’s a long shot but I’m hoping for the best, no need to rain on my parade!
Now, let's see that La La Land number!
I thought that too, but then I looked back at some of the medalists from literally decades of figure skating. There's always a major surprise in every games:
* 1992: Paul Wylie places 2nd after a rather unremarkable career
* 1994: G/P beat both U/Z and T/D for ice dance OGM
* 1998: Lu Chen fights back to win her second bronze, after being 25th in worlds the year before and written off for good, despite her being #1 and #2 in the world just the two season prior
* 2002: Sarah Hughes bested both Michelle and Irina, which I think shocked everyone with a pulse
* 2006: Shizuka winning OGM, she was in the mix (being also a former world champion), but not many pundits had her there
* 2010: the Russians missing the pairs podium entirely
* 2014: I/K in dance, S/K in pairs, Adelina winning ladies
I myself have Wagner as a dark horse (but in line to win a second team bronze), but just saying that anything could happen! That's why we love and hate the Olympics, they always come up with at least one result no one accounted for!
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Exactly, she’s a total dark horse. Even in 2016, everyone thought that Boston’s podium would be Evgenia Gracie and Satoko/Elena. Ashley really likes being the dark horse as well, so we’ll see how it goes. GOOD LUCK ASHLEY!!!:agree:
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I think this is why people seem put off by her scores. Not everyone thinks her skating skills are so heavenly that she should be able to coast thru the season and beat people who are actually performing much harder programs and performing them arguably better. I like Caro a lot actually and I would love to see her win a medal in any event but I don't think she needs the judges to do her any favors to do it. YMMV.
Not sure it will be Wagner in the mix but rather who ever is the top USA lady at the time. The USA champ will certainly be in the top 6 after the short there is no doubt of that!
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- Nov 2, 2013
67.01 points is the highest score for an American skater's SP this season, right? That wouldn't even have placed anywhere near the top 6 in grand prix finals, which only had 6 participants.
True, but Karen Chen did not score or place well in her GP events in 2016 and was only 12 at 4CC, yet she was in the top 6 after the short at 2017 worlds and went on to finish in 4th place! So the main thing she had going for her was the fact that she was the new USA Champ!
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Karen skated her international best at 2017 Worlds but the ladies field was arguably quite weaker there. Only three ladies broke 200+ in Helsinki compared to the seven ladies in Boston at 2016 Worlds. I love Karen and hope she makes the team since she saved the three spots for US ladies singlehandedly but her inconsistency and her constant program changes are worrying. I don't know what her team is doing.
