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In the 4-5 quad era, a layout that *no one* can do consistently, I think it's basically random who among Chen, Uno, Fernandez, or Hanyu wins. The upset would be if Kolyada sneaks the win.
2018 Olympic Upsets
- Thread starter fredtx121
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In the 4-5 quad era, a layout that *no one* can do consistently, I think it's basically random who among Chen, Uno, Fernandez, or Hanyu wins. The upset would be if Kolyada sneaks the win.
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Still, isn't that the whole point? That the judges are ready to give Papadakis and Cizeron the higher scores this year? It is hard to win the Olympics twice. Plushenko couldn't do it. Yuna Kim couldn't do it.
To tell the truth, I would not regard any of the scenarios of the OP to be shocking. Hanyu and Medvedeva have been injured. Will they be able to skate their best?
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If both Medvedeva and Zagitova skate cleanly, I think Alina will come out on top. I believe Medvedeva's absence at GPF helps Alina (but doesn't necessarily harm Evgenia). A true upset would be if either of those two don't win.
In men, it's anyone's game. Right now, Nathan is the frontrunner only if he cleans up his FS and gets actual costumes.
S/M winning over S/H would be a slight upset, only because S/H is better in many compartments.
For ice dance, the only upset is if an American team wins which won't happen.
In men, it's anyone's game. Right now, Nathan is the frontrunner only if he cleans up his FS and gets actual costumes.
S/M winning over S/H would be a slight upset, only because S/H is better in many compartments.
For ice dance, the only upset is if an American team wins which won't happen.
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Would be amazing, I would cry so much.
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If T/M get on the pairs podium with that ridiculous Candyman free program and yellow polka dots, I’ll be upset.
Hah, oh that’s not what you’re asking?
I came up with a funny conspiracy theory this weekend in the GPF FP thread: Robin Szolkowy, who is one of T/M’s coaches, is secretly batting for Aljona’s OGM, so he’s convinced them to stick with this ridiculous program. Nina Mozer has no idea of this diabolical scheme and approves.
Don’t take me too seriously guys, I’m just a jerk.
Hah, oh that’s not what you’re asking?
I came up with a funny conspiracy theory this weekend in the GPF FP thread: Robin Szolkowy, who is one of T/M’s coaches, is secretly batting for Aljona’s OGM, so he’s convinced them to stick with this ridiculous program. Nina Mozer has no idea of this diabolical scheme and approves.
Don’t take me too seriously guys, I’m just a jerk.
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Upsets? Hmm
I think Satoko or Kostner could win gold especially with Evgenia injured - I think she will try to compete regardless.
In pairs it would be a major upset if Duhamel and Radford beat Sui and Han and or the GErmans ditto if Ksenia and Fedor win gold
I think in dance the judges favourites which is what counts are by far P/C - it's their's to lose so the upset would be if Virtue and Moir win
In men's the upset would be if Uno or hanyu don't win. I see Chen doing it. But with the quad craze the front runners are Hanyu, Uno, Chen, Fernandez, Kolyada and boyang. It is highly possible we will not see Chan even in the final group.
I think Satoko or Kostner could win gold especially with Evgenia injured - I think she will try to compete regardless.
In pairs it would be a major upset if Duhamel and Radford beat Sui and Han and or the GErmans ditto if Ksenia and Fedor win gold
I think in dance the judges favourites which is what counts are by far P/C - it's their's to lose so the upset would be if Virtue and Moir win
In men's the upset would be if Uno or hanyu don't win. I see Chen doing it. But with the quad craze the front runners are Hanyu, Uno, Chen, Fernandez, Kolyada and boyang. It is highly possible we will not see Chan even in the final group.
Asides from Zag beating Med, I don't think any of the above really qualifies as upsets. Everyone else is vulnerable depending on the day.
Here are some upsets:
- Men: neither Javi nor Hanyu medal. We see a combo of Chen, Uno, Kolyada, or Jin make it instead.
- Ladies: Med loses, but not to Zag ... to Osmond. That'll really rile up the anti-Canadian posters, who will then make Kaetlyn the new Adelina on social media. Or, Gabby Daleman or Ashley Wagner win bronze.
- Pairs: D/R come back and beat both S/M and S/H, or no Russian pair makes it. Or the French skate clean in a splatfest and land on the podium.
- Dance: C/L, W/P and / or B/S shutting out EVERY American team for the bronze. Gold is between P/C and V/M. Anyone else claiming the top two spots is a total shocker and this forum would melt.
- Team: USA wins silver. Take your pick of either Canada or Russia for gold.
- Men: neither Javi nor Hanyu medal. We see a combo of Chen, Uno, Kolyada, or Jin make it instead.
- Ladies: Med loses, but not to Zag ... to Osmond. That'll really rile up the anti-Canadian posters, who will then make Kaetlyn the new Adelina on social media. Or, Gabby Daleman or Ashley Wagner win bronze.
- Pairs: D/R come back and beat both S/M and S/H, or no Russian pair makes it. Or the French skate clean in a splatfest and land on the podium.
- Dance: C/L, W/P and / or B/S shutting out EVERY American team for the bronze. Gold is between P/C and V/M. Anyone else claiming the top two spots is a total shocker and this forum would melt.
- Team: USA wins silver. Take your pick of either Canada or Russia for gold.
Actually many gold medalists were able to re-win OGM, in figure skating too, although that happened much more in track and filed, alpine and cross country ski, swimming, i.e. sports were there are no jugdes, but only an impartial stopwatch .
My gut tells me that Medvedeva will be upset. There's something worrying to me in how she started the season with that extremely backloaded LP with all those rippons that just screams "insecurity". She seems very nervous. Then you have the hurt foot, the attention from being the favorite, and the whole "Olympic Athlete from Russia" business. And there have been a lot of Olympic upsets.
I put Medvedeva's chance of winning gold at about 50%, Zagitova's at 25%, Osmond's at 20%, and someone else at 5%.
I put Medvedeva's chance of winning gold at about 50%, Zagitova's at 25%, Osmond's at 20%, and someone else at 5%.
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I agree with your thoughts and would even put Zag's percentages as higher.... although she's incredibly rough around the edges, I think Zagitova's energetic, backloaded program will play much better with the general public than Med's. To avoid scoring controversy if both go clean, I could see the judges putting Zag first since they can justify that choice from a technical, performance perspective since Zag's program builds more.
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If T/M get on the pairs podium with that ridiculous Candyman free program and yellow polka dots, I’ll be upset.
Hah, oh that’s not what you’re asking?
I came up with a funny conspiracy theory this weekend in the GPF FP thread: Robin Szolkowy, who is one of T/M’s coaches, is secretly batting for Aljona’s OGM, so he’s convinced them to stick with this ridiculous program. Nina Mozer has no idea of this diabolical scheme and approves.
Don’t take me too seriously guys, I’m just a jerk.
:agree2:
And you're not a jerk.
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:agree2:
And you're not a jerk.
Just like beauty, the amount of jerk-like behaviour is in the eye of the beholder.
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Just like beauty, the amount of jerk-like behaviour is in the eye of the beholder.
Hahahah I <3 you!
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But to be honest, anyanka, there is a huge difference from being the 9th placed skater at the previous Worlds as Adelina (@ 176 total score), versus a Silver medalist from the last Worlds (@ 218 total score), to an OGM. This was a surprise in 2014, ...heck, the Russian Federation didn't even select her to compete in the Team event.
Should this happen for KO, I would think that fans would be accepting of the judging, based on previous competitive results. Additionally, of the current Top 6 skaters as per the GPF this year, none of them are skating in their home country.
The circumstances are much different for Kaetlyn than Adelina.
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I actually started my first thread on GS about the possibility that Adelina could win the Olympic Gold. It wasn't a big surprise for me in the least. Her and Yulia sort of rode a wave into Sochi. She had been a player on the international scene for many years with several National Titles and had just won another title. Her only issue was that she was so inconsistent away from home but she was the darling of the federation. Her and Yulia basically skated to a draw at Nationals that year and Adelina won. :furious: We all know Yulia was all momentum that season (I think it helped carry both honestly) with the only real exceptions being at Sochi in the individual event.
As for the team selection.....Yulia's consistency in the FS was the reason she was chosen. It was decided that pairs and ID would bring two teams each due to the schedule of Pairs and Dance being up first after the team event.....maybe even the next day and so the singles skaters had to do both.
Obviously there are very unique circumstances at play here but certainly you can see some similarity. If Kaetlyn goes clean at the olympics I think a lot of people will be at least a little surprised and it's looking like she is going to have to do that to win. Even Masha has caught her as of late when she makes mistakes and I certainly would consider Masha winning to be an upset. Not for me of course
