Who is going to podium at US Nationals?

Tavi... · Nov 15, 2017

Manitou said:
Men: Nathan (obviously), then Aaron and Adam. I really hope Jason doesn't make it. It's Olympics, an athletic competition, not any artistic show.
Women: doesn't matter. I don't see anybody making any impact at OG. Mirai, please win the Nationals, so that there's no controversy this time! Other than that I guess sending Karen and Mariah would be most beneficial in the long term.
Dance podium is locked, obviously. I would like to see them in order: 1. H/D, 2. C/B and 3. S/S.
H/D are probably the most improved team with most chances for bronze at OG. OK, C/B too. So I guess first two in random order, then S/S.
Pairs: I don't care. It will be a tourist trip to Korea anyway.

So if the Olympics is “an athletic competition, not any artistic show,” why are you bothering to list predictions for ice dance? Did you notice they don’t jump?

And what, exactly, makes a male skater an “athlete” or not? If it’s not falling on 3As or quads, then neither Nathan nor our current world champion qualify. If it’s rotating lots of quads most of the time, Adam doesn’t qualify, and Vincent doesn’t either. If it’s consistently getting lots of +GOE on quads, Max doesn’t qualify.

So maybe you’d be better off saying you hope Jason doesn’t qualify because you don’t like him. Because frankly, you’re on thin ground dissing him as an athlete.

Ylyzybyth · Nov 15, 2017

I think Ashley, Karen, Mirai in no particular order.

Spirals for Miles · Nov 15, 2017

Manitou said:
Men: Nathan (obviously), then Aaron and Adam. I really hope Jason doesn't make it. It's Olympics, an athletic competition, not any artistic show.
Women: doesn't matter. I don't see anybody making any impact at OG. Mirai, please win the Nationals, so that there's no controversy this time! Other than that I guess sending Karen and Mariah would be most beneficial in the long term.
Dance podium is locked, obviously. I would like to see them in order: 1. H/D, 2. C/B and 3. S/S.
H/D are probably the most improved team with most chances for bronze at OG. OK, C/B too. So I guess first two in random order, then S/S.
Pairs: I don't care. It will be a tourist trip to Korea anyway.

Really? Shibs at 3rd? They were the only team to place at the GPF or Worlds last year...
They won their first event this year...
They're clearly doing quite well and on an upward momentum...

Manitou · Nov 15, 2017

Tavi... said:
So if the Olympics is “an athletic competition, not any artistic show,” why are you bothering to list predictions for ice dance? Did you notice they don’t jump?

My liking has nothing to do with it. And it's a subjective thread anyway. Dance is dance and I don't think it really qualifies as an athletic event, even though I love it. I can see some people question it as an Olympic discipline and I can see their points. However, by long tradition it has been an established Olympic sport, so it will stay this way. I am sure if it were not in the Olympics today and someone tried to introduce it right now then it would not pass. However, tradition is tradition.
Actually, I can even see the same trouble with the entire FS. But as I said: tradition is tradition. Who throws hammers today? But we have hammer throwing at OG. But I don't think cell phone throw would pass at OG. Again: tradition.

Tavi... · Nov 15, 2017

Manitou said:
My liking has nothing to do with it. And it's a subjective thread anyway. Dance is dance and I don't think it really qualifies as an athletic event, even though I love it. I can see some people question it as an Olympic discipline and I can see their points. However, by long tradition it has been an established Olympic sport, so it will stay this way. I am sure if it were not in the Olympics today and someone tried to introduce it right now then it would not pass. However, tradition is tradition.
Actually, I can even see the same trouble with the entire FS. But as I said: tradition is tradition. Who throws hammers today? But we have hammer throwing at OG. But I don't think cell phone throw would pass at OG. Again: tradition.

You misunderstood me. I have no issue with ice dance being in the Olympics. My point is that you’re being illogical when you say that (1) you hope Jason doesn’t make the Olympics because it’s an athletic competition; but (2) accept ice dance as part of the Olympics. And now you admit you actually like ice dance. I guess you can’t see the disconnect.

tosca · Nov 15, 2017

TBH I don't really follow anything other than singles (I know shame on me).

Men
What I think:
1. Nathan (obviously)
2. Adam Rippon (USFS loves a story and he has shown that he is so strong this season)
3. Vincent Zhou (he is the future)

What I want:
1. Nathan
2. Vincent Zhou
3. Max Aaron

Somehow Max has become a sentimental favorite. I also think that Vincent in the long run as well as this cycle has a higher ceiling of opportunity. I KNOW... the PCS are not there and he isn't clean... YET.

Ladies
What I think: (this is actually so difficult bc I LOVE the ladies but they are all all over the place - so what I have three thoughts here)
Outcome A
1. Ashley Wagner (She cleans up... she will come from 4th and have an "amazing" FS to get 1st giving her momentum to be a "contender" for a medal in the Olympics)
2. Karen Chen
3. Mirai Nagasu

Outcome B
1. Karen Chen (after a rocky season, redeems herself both in the SP and FS to show that winning LY at nationals and 4th LY at Worlds was not a fluke setting herself up as a "contender" for an Olympic medal)
2. Ashley Wagner
3. Mirai Nagasu

Outcome C
1. Mirai Nagasu (riding on the waves of NHK, she misses her 3A in the SP but still has a clean skate putting her in the top 3; she lands the 3A and has a clean skate finally showing us the old Mirai performance-wise to win. The fed markets her as the comeback 10 years later)
2/3. Ashley Wagner / Karen Chen (in no particular order)

What I want:
1. Mirai Nagasu
2/3. Ashley Wagner / Karen Chen (in no particular order)

Miss Ice · Nov 15, 2017

Man, I actually would LOVE it if Mirai won Nats. I have almost stopped being a fan post-2011 because of the inconsistency but she has totally won me over with her guts and her determination to show everyone who they are are messing with. As someone wrote recently, she is actually one of the few ladies truly pushing the technical boundaries of the ladies, and it's truly remarkeable given how much work it must have taken to come to that state after so many fluke seasons.

Manitou · Nov 15, 2017

Tavi... said:
You misunderstood me. I have no issue with ice dance being in the Olympics. My point is that you’re being illogical when you say that (1) you hope Jason doesn’t make the Olympics because it’s an athletic competition; but (2) accept ice dance as part of the Olympics. And now you admit you actually like ice dance. I guess you can’t see the disconnect.

OK, I will focus on Jason. As I said, it's a subjective thread with subjective opinions and wishes.
I don't stand behind Jason's approach to FS, which is focusing on artistry while abandoning technical competitiveness. I am not blaming him, it's his choice and he has right to it. And if everybody fails at Nationals, while he succeeds with his own technical content, then that's the state of the US skating and so be it. But it's not what I wish for. I want FS to keep evolving into an athletically definable sport, where art is an extra. That's why I support other, technically focused skaters.
Well, exception is ice dance, which I love the most, but I never promised to be consistent in my opinions.

I understand it doesn't fall into the sports category, but that's what it is. I take it as an exception....

But why do I have to defend my own subjective opinion?

Sjs5572 · Nov 15, 2017

For Manitou's benefit, I hope Adam, Jason and Ashley podium at Nationals and Eric Radford wins Oly pairs.

Mrs. P · Nov 15, 2017

Manitou said:
OK, I will focus on Jason. As I said, it's a subjective thread with subjective opinions or wishes.
I don't stand behind Jason's approach to FS, which is focusing on artistry while abandoning technical competitiveness. I am not blaming him, it's his choice and he has right to it. And if everybody fails at Nationals, while he succeeds with his own technical content, then that's the state of the US skating and so be it. But it's not what I wish for. I want FS to keep evolving into an athletically definable sport, where art is an extra. That's why I support other, technically focused skaters.
Well, exception is ice dance, which I love the most, but I never promised to be consistent in my opinions. I understand it doesn't fall into the sports category, but that's what it is. I take it as an exception....
But why do I have to defend my own subjective opinion?

Of course, you aren't obligated to stand behind Jason's approach, really. And I get where you're coming from.
But I doubt figure skating as a sport is going to crumble because Jason because he does it a different way. It certainly hasn't stopped the massive attempts of quad jumps this season.

The question, at hand, is who is going to podium at U.S. Nationals? As it stands, Jason has just about the same season's best FS score (176+) as two skaters who have landed multiple quads. And those three are just behind Adam (177+) who landed a clean (w/UR 4Z) program at NHK. It's clear as mud at this point and even those SBs scores don't matter when it comes to Nationals results.

FWIW, here were the average scores for the U.S. men right before Nationals 2014:

Adam Rippon: 237.48 (Skate America, NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown: 234.18 (Nebelhorn, Skate America, Trophee Eric Bompard)
Max Aaron: 233.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate America, NHK Trophy)
Jeremy Abbott: 226.68 (Skate Canada, NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush: 213.58 (Finlandia Trophy, Cup of China, Rostelecom Cup)
Joshua Farris: 211.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate Canada)
Ross Miner: 203.88 (Ondrej Nepala Trophy, Skate Canada)

The Nationals result: Jeremy Abbott, Jason Brown, Max Aaron, Joshua Farris.

Tavi... · Nov 16, 2017

Manitou said:
OK, I will focus on Jason. As I said, it's a subjective thread with subjective opinions and wishes.
I don't stand behind Jason's approach to FS, which is focusing on artistry while abandoning technical competitiveness. I am not blaming him, it's his choice and he has right to it. And if everybody fails at Nationals, while he succeeds with his own technical content, then that's the state of the US skating and so be it. But it's not what I wish for. I want FS to keep evolving into an athletically definable sport, where art is an extra. That's why I support other, technically focused skaters.
Well, exception is ice dance, which I love the most, but I never promised to be consistent in my opinions. I understand it doesn't fall into the sports category, but that's what it is. I take it as an exception....
But why do I have to defend my own subjective opinion?

You don’t have to defend your opinions, you’re choosing to.

But if you express your opinions, you have to expect that people will respond to them by expressing their own opinions. Isn’t that kind of the raison d’être of this forum?

Manitou · Nov 16, 2017

Tavi... said:
You don’t have to defend your opinions, you’re choosing to.

But if you express your opinions, you have to expect that people will respond to them by expressing their own opinions. Isn’t that kind of the raison d’être of this forum?

I don't mind defending my opinion, and if somebody quotes me then I feel it's impolite not to respond.

That's what this thread is about. In fact, 99% of this forum - subjective opinions.

Mathman · Nov 16, 2017

It is hard to see any other podium in ice dance besides the U.S. BIg Three.

Fpr ladies, Mirai, Ashley and Karen

Men, Nathan, Vincent and Max

Pairs: don't know. Hoping for Kayne and O'Shea.

SarahSynchro · Nov 16, 2017

Manitou said:
OK, I will focus on Jason. As I said, it's a subjective thread with subjective opinions and wishes.
I don't stand behind Jason's approach to FS, which is focusing on artistry while abandoning technical competitiveness. I am not blaming him, it's his choice and he has right to it. And if everybody fails at Nationals, while he succeeds with his own technical content, then that's the state of the US skating and so be it. But it's not what I wish for. I want FS to keep evolving into an athletically definable sport, where art is an extra.

Do you know for a fact that Jason has completely abandoned training any sort of quad jump solely to focus on artistry?

I find it hard to believe that Kori and her team would completely scrap this?

Tavi... · Nov 16, 2017

SarahSynchro said:
Do you know for a fact that Jason has completely abandoned training any sort of quad jump solely to focus on artistry?

I find it hard to believe that Kori and her team would completely scrap this?

I don’t think there’s any evidence that he’s abandoned training quads - he had a poor outing at NHK, but there is YouTube footage from practice two weeks earlier, at Skate Canada, where he lands a beautiful 4T during a run through.

Without trying to put words in Manitou’s mouth, I’d guess he was saying that Jason has never made it a priority to learn multiple quad jumps in the same way Shoma, Hanyu, Nathan and Vincent have, and that he prefers that kind of content in men’s singles programs. I’m sure if he means something else, he’ll correct me.

To say just a bit more (and this is a general comment, not in response to you, and pretty OT): from my perspective, most people play to their strengths - and while Jason’s jumps are generally good, he has definitely struggled with the 3A and 4T. He once said that he starting working on spins and other things in an attempt to remain competitive despite his 3A issues. That he’s succeeded as much as he has is actually pretty amazing. I just wish more people would recognize that his programs, even without quads, are athletically very difficult.

Mathman · Nov 16, 2017

The thing about Jason is that he can score well even without a quad and even if he makes mistakes. Max Aaron can't. Max will have be go clean with all his content in order to make the podium. I think that he will, though -- he holds his fate in his own hands.

Vincent Zhou also can score big even with a so-so skate, in Vincent's case because of his base value.

I had pretty much written Adam off this year until his performance at NHK. For me, he skated himself back into the mix.

sheetz · Nov 16, 2017

From their interviews both Max and Adam sound very, very hungry this year. I would not be surprised to see either or even both of them in the top 3 at Nationals.

Mrs. P · Nov 16, 2017

Tavi... said:
To say just a bit more (and this is a general comment, not in response to you, and pretty OT): from my perspective, most people play to their strengths - and while Jason’s jumps are generally good, he has definitely struggled with the 3A and 4T. He once said that he starting working on spins and other things in an attempt to remain competitive despite his 3A issues. That he’s succeeded as much as he has is actually pretty amazing. I just wish more people would recognize that his programs, even without quads, are athletically very difficult.

The judges recognize the difficulty the programs. I don't think going from mid-80s last season to high-80s/low-90s is simply because he's from the US (especially since he's not even No. 1 at this point).

I certainly don't underestimate the other man I agree all seem really hungry. However, I wouldn't be fooled by Jason's positive attitude -- there's some grit behind it.

Who is going to podium at US Nationals?

Tavi...

Ylyzybyth

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion

Manitou

Tavi...

tosca

Miss Ice

Let the sky fall~

Manitou

Sjs5572

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Tavi...

Manitou

Mathman

SarahSynchro

Tavi...

Mathman

sheetz

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Similar threads

Connect with us