Chen edges out Uno for gold in Japan

Tahuu said:

How many 3 point shots can we have in a game and how complicated is a 3 point shot? I don't think IJS creators were as idiotic as equating a quad jump or even a double as a 3 point shot. A 3 point shot needs no judges to score its execution from +3 to -3 or -4, but a figure skating jump does. Comparing skating jump to 3 point shot is nut.

Click to expand...

I'm exaggerating to make a point. Of course it's not comparable. Point is though, there is a sizable penalty if you miss a 3point shot or any number of sporting objective.

I'd argue there there could be a larger penalty if you miss a quad jump.

I think it's the question of scoring the parts of the sum vs. the whole. I think if you, for example, fall on one quad, but hit the other four (and SLAY the rest of the program), OK that's fine. But when you have a situation like GPF where a sizable of your jumping passes are messy, there's a case for a more overall penalty, which doesn't exist really. I know the ISU is kind of attempting that with the higher deduction for multiple falls thing,

I don't claim to have the answers and I'm just thinking out loud.

ETA: To answer your question, I think the record for an NBA game by a single player is 13, by Steph Curry of course. CDG is right about the 50 percent thing -- I think it's 13 out or 26, so that would 50 percent.

TL;DR: Nobody needs to worry. I am not asking for people to stop trying quads. But I don't think that's mutually exclusive with a system that could better account for other, just as valid characteristics of the spot.

NBA does not lower a 3 point to 2.5 or increase it to 3.5 from one season to the next. I don't think it's a good idea to mess with SOV all the time.

rabbit1234 said:

This is a thought experiment.
Probability of jump

Competitor X with many quads
Probability of a certain quad　33％

Competitor　Y with few quads
Probability of　3A　　　　　　　　　　　 33％

If people are complaining about the failure of the jump and you can reduce the quad for competitor X, they should stop 3A and do 2A for competitor Y.

However, those who complain about the failure of the jump do not say to competitor Y to do 2A instead of 3A.

Because they know that competitor Y loses competitiveness to fight at the top level by it.

After all, those complaining of the failure of the jump are not concerned about the failure of the jump, they just want to pull the feet of the high-level competitor. They are only criticizing competitorX with double standards.

Click to expand...

You keep missing the point everyone is trying to make.No one is saying that Nathan or any skater should downgrade to triples or doubles, what they are saying is that if you want to put a quad, make it good and land it. 33% success rate in your example is low, but can be raised with training (at least for most). However, if the skater decides to add a new jump rather than work on this one he will end up with two jumps with low success rate, which is bad since it is two chances for a mistake rather than one. Also, IMO it is not raising difficulty because landing a jump with difficult entry and exit as well as having good air position and running edge is more difficult than falling on a badly executed jump (at least technically since it is more painful to fall)

BTW, Nathan lost every single free skate in the GP series. He even lost to Adam who has only one quad that was downgraded. Can you explain how is this pushing for difficulty is good for him when it is obviously not. Nathan can do a 4 quad layout with two 4Lz and two 4F and it would still be very competitive program and something he can realistically do. No need to drop all his quads or whatever, he only needs to work on stabilizing what he already has and make sure to land those jumps.

Also, the ladies are definitely not boring. The ladies competition this season is very high level and not doing quads did not make it less exciting watching those talented ladies fight to the last point.

Neenah16 said:

You keep missing the point everyone is trying to make.No one is saying that Nathan or any skater should downgrade to triples or doubles, what they are saying is that if you want to put a quad, make it good and land it. 33% success rate in your example is low, but can be raised with training (at least for most). However, if the skater decides to add a new jump rather than work on this one he will end up with two jumps with low success rate, which is bad since it is two chances for a mistake rather than one. Also, IMO it is not raising difficulty because landing a jump with difficult entry and exit as well as having good air position and running edge is more difficult than falling on a badly executed jump (at least technically since it is more painful to fall)

BTW, Nathan lost every single free skate in the GP series. He even lost to Adam who has only one quad that was downgraded. Can you explain how is this pushing for difficulty is good for him when it is obviously not. Nathan can do a 4 quad layout with two 4Lz and two 4F and it would still be very competitive program and something he can realistically do. No need to drop all his quads or whatever, he only needs to work on stabilizing what he already has and make sure to land those jumps.

Also, the ladies are definitely not boring. The ladies competition this season is very high level and not doing quads did not make it less exciting watching those talented ladies fight to the last point.

Click to expand...

At least the Japanese people in the venue seemed to be interested in mens who had more mistakes than ladies who had few mistakes.
The men's rate is around 20%, and the average combined with the ladies SP in the first half is 14.4%, so you can read that the ladies' late is fairly low.
In Japan, the ladies are more popular than originally. From the era of midori ito ladies were popular.

2017　GPF
http://www.hochi.co.jp/entertainment...HT1T50127.html
https://news.infoseek.co.jp/article/...20171211_0086/

Men　SP　
12.6％（Maximum momentary rating　19.8％）

Ladies　SP　＆　men’s　FP
14.4％（Maximum momentary rating　　men’sFP　20.9％）

Ladies　FP
10.3％（Maximum momentary rating　15.9％）


Mens has a higher rating than ladies that have continued less mistakes.
There were no hanyu, Javier, Chan, etc this time.
However, it is high enough compared with the football's national team fight etc.

December 9, 2017
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2...000073-sph-ent

11.3％（Maximum momentary rating　17.4％)


I can not understand defending "but can be raised with training" against low probability 3A of competitor with small number of quads.
Because 3A is a jump that many competitors have been training for a long time since junior.
He has been training for a long time and this probability.
If that is the case, competitors who have many quads may put new quads, probability may increase by training.

For example,
Jason BROWN
Probability of jump

3A
10th Lombardia Trophy 2017
SP ×
FP　○　○
ISU GP 2017 Skate Canada International
SP　×
FP　○　○
ISU GP NHK Trophy 2017
SP　×　×
FP　×
Grand Prix Final 2017 Senior
SP　○
FP　○　×

Success　6
Failure　6
Probability of success　　50％


4T
10th Lombardia Trophy 2017
SP ×
ISU GP 2017 Skate Canada International
FP　×
Probability of success　　０％


People who complain about the failure of the jump do not mention 3A or 4T of Quad's fewer competitors.
They do not complain about a competitor with a small quad, even if putting it in a jump layout where the probability of 3A or 4T is low or which is hardly successful.
They do not criticize that they should be 2A or that they are making BVs with a jump that is almost unsuccessful.
They know that a competitor with a small number of quads can not fight the top if 3A is out of the layout.

They use double standards and I do not think that their claim is persuasive.

rabbit1234 said:

At least the Japanese people in the venue seemed to be interested in mens who had more mistakes than ladies who had few mistakes.
The men's rate is around 20%, and the average combined with the ladies SP in the first half is 14.4%, so you can read that the ladies' late is fairly low.
In Japan, the ladies are more popular than originally. From the era of midori ito ladies were popular.

2017　GPF
http://www.hochi.co.jp/entertainment...HT1T50127.html
https://news.infoseek.co.jp/article/...20171211_0086/

Men　SP　
12.6％（Maximum momentary rating　19.8％）

Ladies　SP　＆　men’s　FP
14.4％（Maximum momentary rating　　men’sFP　20.9％）

Ladies　FP
10.3％（Maximum momentary rating　15.9％）


Mens has a higher rating than ladies that have continued less mistakes.
There were no hanyu, Javier, Chan, etc this time.
However, it is high enough compared with the football's national team fight etc.

December 9, 2017
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2...000073-sph-ent

11.3％（Maximum momentary rating　17.4％)

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First of all, I never said that the ladies event was more popular, what I did say is that it is not boring (because they are not jumping quads)
Second, with all due respect to the Japanese, they do not represent the entirety of the skating fans. Nevertheless, I am glad to know that the Japanese fans like the mens discipline and support it even though it is going through a bit of difficult transitional period
Third, The men's field is exciting due the men pushing the envelope and trying difficult program, there is no denying that. However, that doesn't mean that the fans should not worry about injuries or discuss the best strategies that can be followed to maximise those skaters chances. This is not a criticism or an attempt to pull the sport backwards but a genuine concern for the wellbeing and the chances of those skaters whom we love and respect.

I like Jason and Adam.
I think that their unique program and skating are precious.
And I think that under the current rules it is well appreciated.
That is why they entered the GPF in that layout.
However, I think that their layout is not suitable for the winner of the top competition.
I think that it is wrong to change the rules so that they will be the winners.
The difficulty of the layout should also be asked for the winner.

If they do not challenge 4Lz or 4T, I may not like them much.
Since there is a stance to not stop the challenge even if they fail, people will want to cheer.
Also, I think there is a moment of excitement as to whether it will succeed or not.
I think the excitement of competition will be created from the daring challenge

Mrs. P said:

I'm exaggerating to make a point. Of course it's not comparable. Point is though, there is a sizable penalty if you miss a 3point shot or any number of sporting objective.

I'd argue there there could be a larger penalty if you miss a quad jump.

I think it's the question of scoring the parts of the sum vs. the whole. I think if you, for example, fall on one quad, but hit the other four (and SLAY the rest of the program), OK that's fine. But when you have a situation like GPF where a sizable of your jumping passes are messy, there's a case for a more overall penalty, which doesn't exist really. I know the ISU is kind of attempting that with the higher deduction for multiple falls thing,

I don't claim to have the answers and I'm just thinking out loud.

ETA: To answer your question, I think the record for an NBA game by a single player is 13, by Steph Curry of course. CDG is right about the 50 percent thing -- I think it's 13 out or 26, so that would 50 percent.

TL;DR: Nobody needs to worry. I am not asking for people to stop trying quads. But I don't think that's mutually exclusive with a system that could better account for other, just as valid characteristics of the spot.

Click to expand...

Yup! And the bigger point I was trying to make is that athletes can't be expected to perform 100% clean or even 50% clean all the time.

I remember I was once in a job interview and the fact that I was a figure skater came up (since I was asked about extra curriculars). And the interviewer said something rather asinine like, "I don't get how figure skaters can fall. They practice so much!" And, rather annoyed, I think I said something snarky like, "Well, probably for the same reason basketball players don't make 100% of their free throws in spite of practicing so much!" (Still got the job, lol.)

I know we would like skaters not to have a splat fest but then we might as well just go back to the days of double jumps (and basketball players should only be awarded for 2-point shots) to avoid less missed jumps/shots - so sports become more appealing with less mistakes. And yes, I get that the system in skating confers grade of execution points too but my main OP point was about expectations of clean performances by athletes which is almost always rare for the purpose of making sport interesting. If every athlete performed 100% of their ability 100% of the time, sports would become rather boring and predictable IMO. It's why some people were so frustrated with Medvedeva... and for the longest time, ice dance.

rabbit1234 said:

If you think so, why do not you recommend Jason to stop 4T or 3A? Do not recommend Patrick to stop 3A?

Click to expand...

I think you went overboard with your interpretation of fireovertheice demands. He does not mean eradicating of those elements that are inconsistent / problematic for specific skaters, he just presented his suggestions that can make figure skating evaluation more genuine. He does not mean to make Jason Brown World Champion with this way of thinking & these changes. And yes I agree that this daring challenge is needed for our excitation and for it to stay as a sport, but how even the current less-than-stellar guidelines / rules are misapplied turns off many people (if not most of them).

Also, even if Yuzuru wasn't there, the majority of Japanese fans are attracted to men's discipline thanks to him. It's called watching the competence.

To make my post more interesting/consistent according to you I'm going to attach a random statistic of pandas:

"According to the Fourth National Giant Panda Survey, 1246 wild giant pandas live within nature reserves, accounting for 66.8% of the total wild population size and 53.8% of the total habitat area. There are currently 67 panda nature reserves in China, an increase of 27 since the last survey.

The report found the total area inhabited by wild giant pandas in China now equals 6,370,000 acres, an expansion of 11.8% since 2003."

https://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/wild-giant-panda-population-increases-nearly-17

rabbit1234 said:

Competitor　Y with few quads
Probability of　3A　　　　　　　　　　　 33％

Click to expand...

To me, all this is irrelevant to this thread. The skater we are talking about is Nathan Chen. Nathan Chen does not have "few quads." Nathan Chen has many quads, including a very fine quad Lutz.

Here's what I think. I would be disappointed if Nathan did not score the maximum points total that he is capable of at the Olympics. His challenge is to score as many points as possible. Quads are the big point getters. But other skaters will be doing multiple quads as well, for instance Uno who just beat Nathan in the long program at the grand prix final. There is also Hanyu, who is an unknown factor at the present moment.

What can Nathan do to get the edge on his competitors? He has three choices.

(1) He can do one more quad than the others. This will get him some extra points and put him over the top, unless he gives the points back by presenting jumps of lesser quality or by neglecting other small opportunities to squeeze out a few extra points.

(2) He can work to improve the quality of his jumps. This is where Hanyu in particular has an advantage over Nathan. Hanyu at his best can get +2 and +3 GOE on every element.

(3) He can try to gain points by improving his spins, or his speed and flow, or his artistic components.

Which strategy will result in more points and the Olympic gold medal? Only Nathan and his coaching team can decide what strategy to follow. But I remember the Quad King, Tim Goebel, who in 2002 was the first man to do three quads in an LP at the Olympics and the first man to do a quad Salchow. Alexei Yagudin and Evgeni Plushenko did a mere two quad toes. But Yagudin got the gold and Plushenko the silver, with Goebel in third place. As was reported in the U.S. press:

There was little controversy [about the results] at all. It was hardly surprising that Russians Alexei Yagudin, who won the gold, and Plushenko, who earned the silver, awed the judges with their classic artistry and graceful jumping -- each landed a pair of quadruple jumps, and each won significantly higher scores than Goebel for presentation.

Click to expand...

Anyway, Go Nathan!

Mussique said:

Also, even if Yuzuru wasn't there, the majority of Japanese fans are attracted to men's discipline thanks to him. It's called watching the competence.

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The popularity of men's is from around honda, takahashi.
Even with hanyu, the rating of the ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2017 that he challenged to 4Lz is better than the rating of the world that did not mistake.

After all people would like to see a challenge.

The three most popular Yuzuru videos (4,8 M; 2,4M; 1,9M) are from his WR in GP2015 and his two performances in Sochi (Olympics effect obviously, on these last two, but they are brilliant performances). Clean.
That being said, of course people are attracted to morbid videos. The 6th most popular one is his crash with Han Yan.

I guess we should include an accidents competition too then. Add some spiciness to the sport.
(no)

Tonya Harding

For popularity, drama is also necessary.
It is also necessary to make people think what happens there.
If you exclude failures from competition, the result will be known beforehand.
If results have been decided in advance by reputation, excitement and tension will be diminished.

rabbit1234 said:

Tonya Harding

For popularity, drama is also necessary.
It is also necessary to make people think what happens there.
If you exclude failures from competition, the result will be known beforehand.
If results have been decided in advance by reputation, excitement and tension will be diminished.

Click to expand...

Still not the point, you see, risk is always going to be there. Gymnasts fall all the time, they're just punished for it.

It's not about erasing quads, it's about making sure that winning performances don't have eye-tearing mistakes. Specially towards the casual viewer. At least when there are clean performances in the pool too. Falling on our butts is the only ability even the sloppiest human has on ice. Even me, I am great at it...

If someone pushes for a 7 quads SP+FP good, but if he falls then people who """"""only""""" have a clean 5 quads SP+FP should be able to """"""easily"""""" win. Even if they're rotated. Edit: even 4, even 3. Just, don't give points for rotated falls

And thus the sport still has risks, because people like Boyang Jim (please rest) that doesn't have PCS to cut it are going to push their BV, threatening the top contenders. But they need to be reliable.

The winner shouldn't be able to win with a sloppy performance. It makes the whole sport look absolutely terrible. It's all about finding the balance, and with the technical growth the sport has been having lately that's still obviously not there yet. I mean, it's a pity because everyone can have a bad day, but that's sports for you.

That's my point, I'm not going to argue any further, sorry for the rants.
Again, gratz to the podium and looking forward to see improved (clean please) performances at Olympics

Mussique said:

Still not the point, you see, risk is always going to be there. Gymnasts fall all the time, they're just punished for it.

It's not about erasing quads, it's about making sure that winning performances don't have eye-tearing mistakes. Specially towards the casual viewer. At least when there are clean performances in the pool too. Falling on our butts is the only ability even the sloppiest human has on ice. Even me, I am great at it...

If someone pushes for a 7 quads SP+FP good, but if he falls then people who """"""only""""" have a clean 5 quads SP+FP should be able to """"""easily"""""" win. Even if they're rotated. Edit: even 4, even 3. Just, don't give points for rotated falls

And thus the sport still has risks, because people like Boyang Jim (please rest) that doesn't have PCS to cut it are going to push their BV, threatening the top contenders. But they need to be reliable.

The winner shouldn't be able to win with a sloppy performance. It makes the whole sport look absolutely terrible. It's all about finding the balance, and with the technical growth the sport has been having lately that's still obviously not there yet. I mean, it's a pity because everyone can have a bad day, but that's sports for you.

That's my point, I'm not going to argue any further, sorry for the rants.
Again, gratz to the podium and looking forward to see improved (clean please) performances at Olympics

Click to expand...

The fact that the number of deductions has not increased has already been demonstrated with data.
Also in the 2017 world TOP 3 makes almost no mistakes.
Rather, there were many mistakes when Chan won the world championship.
And you are not dissatisfied with the fact that fewer quads competitors make a lot of mistakes.
Your argument is not persuasive.

If you can not forsake a mistake, you should recommend 2A instead of 3A for Javier.
Because Javier 's 3A probability for this season is only 35%.
Javier's probability of 4s in the last two seasons is also 50%.
You should recommend Javier 3s.

Mathman said:

Here's what I think. I would be disappointed if Nathan did not score the maximum points total that he is capable of at the Olympics. His challenge is to score as many points as possible. Quads are the big point getters. But other skaters will be doing multiple quads as well, for instance Uno who just beat Nathan in the long program at the grand prix final. There is also Hanyu, who is an unknown factor at the present moment.



Anyway, Go Nathan!

Click to expand...

As a Nathan's fan, it's good to know that his PCS of the LP with a sub-par and multiple mistakes performance is only less 3 points behind Shoma's.
So I hope Nathan and Raf can focus more on the GOE and technic-wise cleaner jump layout. And yes, I also found his spins deteriorated after Rostelecom Cup.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Yup! And the bigger point I was trying to make is that athletes can't be expected to perform 100% clean or even 50% clean all the time.

I remember I was once in a job interview and the fact that I was a figure skater came up (since I was asked about extra curriculars). And the interviewer said something rather asinine like, "I don't get how figure skaters can fall. They practice so much!" And, rather annoyed, I think I said something snarky like, "Well, probably for the same reason basketball players don't make 100% of their free throws in spite of practicing so much!" (Still got the job, lol.)

I know we would like skaters not to have a splat fest but then we might as well just go back to the days of double jumps (and basketball players should only be awarded for 2-point shots) to avoid less missed jumps/shots - so sports become more appealing with less mistakes. And yes, I get that the system in skating confers grade of execution points too but my main OP point was about expectations of clean performances by athletes which is almost always rare for the purpose of making sport interesting. If every athlete performed 100% of their ability 100% of the time, sports would become rather boring and predictable IMO. It's why some people were so frustrated with Medvedeva... and for the longest time, ice dance.

Click to expand...

I feel like there's a happy medium between demanding no quads for "clean programs" (and yes I get the argument that no-quad programs have errors too) and doing quads to the point where it's just plain sloppy on a consistent basis. I get that skaters can't peak all the time and I'm not expecting even perfect or fully clean programs.

Also when Steph or Klay miss their 3-pointers, thankfully there are other things Golden State has to save them in a game and still make the game memorable for spectators. They have a Draymond Green to do kill it on defense and they have a whole bench of players who can score points. I think what's probably unsatisfying to some about these messy quad-filled programs is that they isn't much there to make people forget about the quad mistakes.

Honestly, I'm starting to think I just responded on this thread because I wanted an excuse to talk about basketball instead.

rabbit1234 said:

The fact that the number of reductions has not increased has already been demonstrated with data.
Also in the 2017 world TOP 3 makes almost no mistakes.
Rather, there were many mistakes when Chan won the world championship.
And you are not dissatisfied with the fact that fewer quads competitors make a lot of mistakes.
Your argument is not persuasive.

If you can not forsake a mistake, you should recommend 2A instead of 3A for Javier.
Because Javier 's 3A probability for this season is only 35%.

Click to expand...

While what you are saying about deductions not increasing might be true, it is not the full picture. Not all mistakes incur deductions so you will have to look into the performances and the protocols to get the whole story. Your data is missing pops, step outs, hand downs, iffy landings, and under rotations, which we have been seeing a lot lately. Non of these mistakes have set deduction but they all can be very costly and disruptive

After the accidents we had this season so far and the horrible injuries that resulted from it, I am now very scared when a skater falls or has to save a landing in an acrobatic way. I don't know about you, but this is not fun at all to me.

Neenah16 said:

While what you are saying about deductions not increasing might be true, it is not the full picture. Not all mistakes incur deductions so you will have to look into the performances and the protocols to get the whole story. Your data is missing pops, step outs, hand downs, iffy landings, and under rotations, which we have been seeing a lot lately. Non of these mistakes have set deduction but they all can be very costly and disruptive

After the accidents we had this season so far and the horrible injuries that resulted from it, I am now very scared when a skater falls or has to save a landing in an acrobatic way. I don't know about you, but this is not fun at all to me.

Click to expand...

As for the number of GOE minus, I gave data that I verified before.
In the 2017 world, the top 3 has hardly made a mistake, so it will not be data that it is increasing compared with any year.
At the same time, if you do not like to make such mistakes, you should recommend 2A to Javier.
Yuzuru's 4Lo and 4S have many pops and are not stable. You should recommend Yuzuru to quit 4S and 4Lo too.

Data before GPF

Number of POP / 1competition

2.50 ： Yuzuru HANYU
1.33 ： Javier FERNANDEZ
1.33 ： Nathan CHEN
1.00 ： Vincent ZHOU
0.50 ： Mikhail KOLYADA
0.33 ： Boyang JIN
0.00 ： Jason BROWN
0.00 ： Shoma UNO
0.00 ： Adam RIPPON
0.00 ： Patrick CHAN
0.00 ： Sergei VORONOV

Fans might grumble but I do think it was a sound strategy for the top guys to go for aggressive layouts at the GPF, all things considered. The skaters need to see how far they can push themselves under the pressure of competition, and it's a trivial matter to dial back the technical difficulty later on. OTOH, had they been successful Brian Orser would be waking up in a cold sweat every night.

Nathan needs to drop 4S ASAP because every time he pops it his program goes into a downward spiral. I think it would reasonable for him to attempt a 5 quad, 1 3A program with 2x4Lz, 2x4T, 4F.