Medvedeva vs Zagitova | Page 4 | Golden Skate

Medvedeva vs Zagitova

charlotte14

Medalist
Joined
Aug 16, 2017
Well, it’ll happen at some point. Sotnikova had an even worse record with free skates. The loop jump is her nemesis. If she gets past it, she may be good to go.

Lots of parallels between Sotnikova and Osmond. Huge jumps, respectable skating skills, compelling and consistent SP, less compelling and inconsistent FS, victim of YouTube harassment, etc.

It may come down to the judging panel. Sochi had four Eastern Europeans who skewer the PCS with lots of 9.75s for Adelina (though, as I’ve argued elsewhere, she might’ve won even without the boost), so if there’s a panel with mostly Asian and North American judges things might look good for Kaetlyn.

It’s hard to know how the behind the scenes lobbying is going with this. Canada is surely pushing for V/M gold but they have to realize that Kaetlyn could easily podium if not win, if a few of those +2s turn into +3s and the 9.25s become 9.75s.
I think Skate Canada want both V/M and Osmond to win gold but
1) Judges are loving P/C more, and V/M won Gold once so judges would prefer P/C at this point.
2) Osmond is inconsistent...
 

Procrastinator

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
I think Med will lead the SP and Zagi lead the LP. Total unknown.

The SP should be fairly close.

Zagitova and Osmond should peak in the 78s, and Medvedeva will be 79-80.

Free skate is harder to estimate because judges have a tendency to give automatic +3s once someone is skating clean.

Medvedeva’s score can go up to 154 (the 160 WTT score is a joke), Zagitova probably 152, and Osmond at least 150.

Reputation and scoring history favors Medvedeva, while base value favors Zagitova. Zagitova and Osmond should also have a GOE advantage over Med but that’s not how the judges have been scoring.

And finally, Carolina, who is like the reverse Zagitova.

A clean SP can get her ~77 and FS probably as high as ~148.

Conclusion: who knows what will happen! But the sport feels more fun now that we have at least four contenders. I hope the judges don’t just hand it to Medvedeva and let the numbers fall where they will.

- - - Updated - - -

I think Skate Canada want both V/M and Osmond to win gold but
1) Judges are loving P/C more, and V/M won Gold once so judges would prefer P/C at this point.
2) Osmond is inconsistent...

So was Sotnikova!
 

charlotte14

Medalist
Joined
Aug 16, 2017
The SP should be fairly close.
----
So was Sotnikova!
I think it is safe to say Med will lead SP with 80. It only has 3 jumps so it is easier for her to skate clean. And her BV in the SP is not too much lower than Zagitova.
But the BV in the LP is a huge difference. Med's BV is much much lower than Zagitova. I don't remember the clear number but I think at this point it is very much possible to say Zagitova can win Med in the LP if both skate clean.
 

Procrastinator

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
I think it is safe to say Med will lead SP with 80. It only has 3 jumps so it is easier for her to skate clean. And her BV in the SP is not too much lower than Zagitova.
But the BV in the LP is a huge difference. Med's BV is much much lower than Zagitova. I don't remember the clear number but I think at this point it is very much possible to say Zagitova can win Med in the LP if both skate clean.

She has around 4 points advantage, but Med. might have that in PCS (72 vs. 76)
 

chairmanmao

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Yeah, im just saying if someone will beat Zhenya, i think it will be Caro or Kaetlyn more probably than Zagi. Just my intuition tho

Kostner is not beating Medvedeva. Med is not losing to some junior level skater. Osmond meanwhile looks like a speed skater 80% of the time she is on the ice. She is like Zagitova except she has no transitions and her big jumps usually end up with her butt on the ice. If only that Kostornaia girl was eligible then I think the competition would have been more interesting.
 

charlotte14

Medalist
Joined
Aug 16, 2017
Kostner is not beating Medvedeva. Med is not losing to some junior level skater. Osmond meanwhile looks like a speed skater 80% of the time she is on the ice. She is like Zagitova except she has no transitions and her big jumps usually end up with her butt on the ice. If only that Kostornaia girl was eligible then I think the competition would have been more interesting.
Well remember when people said Sonitkova would never skate well then BAM? Osmond might have that moment too...
 

Shayuki

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 2, 2013
They have European and Olympic team event for the judges to even out that PCS and GOE gap.

If you think that's what they're going to do. I think that it's not going to become nearly as even. Even though many seem to completely ignore this, Medvedeva really is very good in all the PCS categories and does have a legitimate advantage over Zagitova in that regard. I just can't see them closing the gap. The only reason would be if they're tired of Medvedeva having issues like her lutz edge that keep her from being a "perfect skater" and see Zagitova as that much more marketable. But I just cannot see that.

My opinion is that the GPF PCS got inflated because of Medvedeva not being around. I predict that her PCS might go down when Medvedeva is around, or alternatively Medvedeva's PCS will reach ridiculous heights(78-79).
 

charlotte14

Medalist
Joined
Aug 16, 2017
If you think that's what they're going to do. I think that it's not going to become nearly as even. Even though many seem to completely ignore this, Medvedeva really is very good in all the PCS categories and does have a legitimate advantage over Zagitova in that regard. I just can't see them closing the gap. The only reason would be if they're tired of Medvedeva having issues like her lutz edge that keep her from being a "perfect skater" and see Zagitova as that much more marketable. But I just cannot see that.

My opinion is that the GPF PCS got inflated because of Medvedeva not being around. I predict that her PCS might go down when Medvedeva is around, or alternatively Medvedeva's PCS will reach ridiculous heights(38-39).
Of course Zagi will not get Med's PCS. But her PCS keeps going up. I think it might reach the point that her FS score might even out Med's FS score due to the difference in BV. So what if Zagi gets 4 points less in PCS, her TES can make it up.
 

Shayuki

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 2, 2013
Of course Zagi will not get Med's PCS. But her PCS keeps going up. I think it might reach the point that her FS score might even out Med's FS score due to the difference in BV. So what if Zagi gets 4 points less in PCS, her TES can make it up.

And honestly, I consider a 4 point PCS gap extremely unlikely. I'd predict it to be around 7. In my opinion, the gap should be around 12 points.


But again, this is just FS. Medvedeva's SP is far stronger.
 

russianfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 4, 2017
Am I alone to feel that Alina's jumps are quite small, comparable to those of Satoko's? On the other hand, Zhenya's are bigger, though not as big as Kaetlyn's.

what? :jaw:
there are no other jumpers comparable to Satoko :biggrin: tbh comparison with Satoko's jumps is almost an insult
 

Shayuki

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 2, 2013
what? :jaw:
there are no other jumper comparable to Satoko :biggrin:

That's true. But I wonder where Zagitova would place here, though. Satoko is in a category of her own, as expected.

Well, this season. Looks like she was tied with Med last season.


So actually, that's middle of the pack and nowhere near Satoko. In fact, better than I expected. I thought Zagitova would have been below Pogorilaya.
 

charlotte14

Medalist
Joined
Aug 16, 2017
That's true. But I wonder where Zagitova would place here, though. Satoko is in a category of her own, as expected.

Well, this season. Looks like she was tied with Med last season.


So actually, that's middle of the pack and nowhere near Satoko. In fact, better than I expected. I thought Zagitova would have been below Pogorilaya.
Do you have the full links of the article in Russian, which compared their jump height? Thanks
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
Am I alone to feel that Alina's jumps are quite small, comparable to those of Satoko's? On the other hand, Zhenya's are bigger, though not as big as Kaetlyn's.

Nobody can beat Satoko at tiny jumps.
 

Ares

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 22, 2016
Country
Poland
IMO, no one can beat Med. Just my opinion.

They could if only Medvedeva was scored fairly (she's not) regarding "no one can beat Med" ascertainment. I want to see credible judging for once and see what happens when they somehow regain sanity and give reality check. That impression of being impossible to beat is partly because of that overscoring, It's not just because she remains unbeaten for 2 years albeit those two things have correlation as well. There are skaters who have higher BV than her just to start with among which is Zagitova or Mihara (but we won't see her at the Olympics).

Sure we know & understand the strategies used by which she collects the points and her general, fierce ability to compete but this scoring for her in particular is still too lenient & generous. She's a very good skater but not great enough to score this kind of advantage in points everytime. It gives her this clout of being invisible that gives her even bigger self-confidence (cushion for errors). I do wonder whether she'd be laughing after her 2A fall at Cup Of Russia if she were to face Zagitova there. Something tells me that she would not react in the same way. That having said Zhenya is overall well-rounded skater, has bigger jumps (I disagree with those claiming it's otherwise) with better flow and has polish and skating skills that Alina right now lacks so I think she'll be favourite when they face each other and as I like Medvedeva more I hope she wins (over her at least).

None of them represents what I love in ladies' figure skating (duh) but their rivalry makes me more intrigued than usually as far as tension and unpredictability goes.
 

treeloving

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
On pcs side Medvedeva is better in everything by a mile. I will be so upset if I she lost to Zagitova at OG.
 

yoloaxel

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2017
In my opinion, IF Osmond can skate a clean short and a clean long program, she will take it all. May the skating Gods be watching over her. The Russian girls are great but can't beat a clean Osmond. Now listen, this all depends on IF...lol

If EVERYONE skates completely clean, considering the scores this season it would probably be
1. Evgenia
2. Alina
3. Kaetlyn\Carolina\Satoko
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
In my opinion, IF Osmond can skate a clean short and a clean long program, she will take it all. May the skating Gods be watching over her. The Russian girls are great but can't beat a clean Osmond. Now listen, this all depends on IF...lol

It depends on how clean. Osmond's "clean" jumps can get anywhere from -1 to +3 on GOE, depending on the landing and whether she is leaning in the air. If she can do all her jumps as well as she does them at the start of her programs, she will be hard to beat. If she has to save a few landings, even a clean program won't come close to Medvedeva.
 
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