Will all but mens be gold and bronze battle

eggnogkitty · Jan 9, 2018

medoroa said:
She was not. Suguri was the national champion

Regardless everyone knew Arakawa was the greater talent and regarded her the main threat from Japan with Asada out of the Games by the age rules. Suguri is just steady and solid, needed others mistakes to even maybe get a medal, never mind the gold.

Anyasnake · Jan 9, 2018

Never underestimate Boyang Jin, ever.
It is a bit clear that Nathan and Shoma are the favourite, maybe Nathan has a slight edge.Then, it's all about Yuzuru's state. Kolyada, Jin, Fernandez could land on that podium as well. It's just not predictable as of now.

I hope T/M didn't kill their chances for Olympic gold/podium with that stupid program, even though I want S/M or maybe S/H to win.

For Ice dance, P/C are the fractionnal favourite as of now, but both teams cannot afford any mistakes.

Ladies, it all depends on Alina's Short and Evgenia's injury. I could see a Carolina or a Kaetlyn (most likely ?) or even a Maria on that podium as well.

medoroa · Jan 9, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Regardless everyone knew Arakawa was the greater talent and regarded her the main threat from Japan with Asada out of the Games by the age rules. Suguri is just steady and solid, needed others mistakes to even maybe get a medal, never mind the gold.

That's, like, your opinion, man. Your opinion != general public perception, which is what we're discussing here. In Japan, the general public hype going into Torino was Miki Ando (pressure to which she succumbed). Not the least because Arakawa was 25.

I agree with you that Arakawa is a better skater than Suguri or Ando. That's not what we're discussing.

Procrastinator · Jan 9, 2018

Globetrotter said:
I think you missed the point that it was about overinflation. Nathan has better SS than Boyang for sure but is his PCS really deservin of 9s? Is his SS even at say Patrick Chan or Yuzuru or Shoma level? His P/E and IN deserves to be scored at Javi level? No I don't think so, not yet.

And when have they been scored as such? He gets scores just north of 8.75. Chan, Yuzuru, Shoma, Fernandez all get well above that.

eggnogkitty · Jan 9, 2018

medoroa said:
That's, like, your opinion, man. Your opinion != general public perception, which is what we're discussing here. In Japan, the general public hype going into Torino was Miki Ando (pressure to which she succumbed). Not the least because Arakawa was 25.

I agree with you that Arakawa is a better skater than Suguri or Ando. That's not what we're discussing.

Well I can only speak from the North American opinion but CBC and NBC were certainly talking way more about Arakawa than Suguri (and Ando wasnt even noted).

eggnogkitty · Jan 9, 2018

Procrastinator said:
And when have they been scored as such? He gets scores just north of 8.75. Chan, Yuzuru, Shoma, Fernandez all get well above that.

Uno barely got any higher PCS than Chen at the GPF, and lower GOE on even his clean elements, which lost him the event even with fewer mistakes and nearly the same base value as Chen. It is obvious you are a huge Chen fan so I dont bother reasoning with you further on him however. Unless you have been living under a rock you would be well aware I am very far from the first one who has remarked on him being overscored though dating back to even last season. :laugh:

Procrastinator · Jan 9, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Uno barely got any higher PCS than Chen at the GPF, and lower GOE on even his clean elements, which lost him the event even with fewer mistakes and nearly the same base value as Chen. It is obvious you are a huge Chen fan so I dont bother reasoning with you further on him however.

I'm a Fernandez fan, if anything, but I think Shoma will win. I just think Chen is better than the fans give him credit for. Certainly the judges and commentators seem to agree.

And Shoma was definitely above Chen by a significant enough margin:

SS 9.36 to 9.00 in SP, 9.36 to 8.96 in FS

TR 9.11 to 8.79, 8.96 to 8.61

PE 9.32 to 9.11, 9.00 to 8.86

CO 9.32 to 9.07, 9.18 to 8.93

IN 9.36 to 9.21, 9.18 to 8.86

Shoma's average PCS mark was 9.29 in the SP, 9.14 in the FS, and 9.22 across both segments.

Chen's average PCS mark was 9.04 in the SP, 8.84 in the FS, and 8.94 across both segments.

Also, I'm looking at the protocols and Shoma's are littered with mostly +2s while Chen's are littered with mostly +1s. Again, I don't know what you're looking at, but it's not the actual judging.

medoroa · Jan 9, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Uno barely got any higher PCS than Chen at the GPF, and lower GOE on even his clean elements, which lost him the event even with fewer mistakes and nearly the same base value as Chen. It is obvious you are a huge Chen fan so I dont bother reasoning with you further on him however. Unless you have been living under a rock you would be well aware I am very far from the first one who has remarked on him being overscored though dating back to even last season.

The deductions for his fall and going over time lost Uno the event. If he hadn't had those, Uno would have won GPF based on PCS (as far I remember from the protocols). Chen might have been overscored last season but I don't think he is this season (with the caveat that all the top men are overscored, so we're talking relatively here). I actually find his choreography and presentation on par with Uno, and the only thing separating them is personal taste, where the judges tend to favor the warhorses. I like Uno but his presentation of Turandot is holding his hands up in front of his face as if he's going "Whyyyyy?" and while I don't think Chen has skated his FS to its full potential (and I'm starting to think he never will, sadly), neither has Uno.

Everyone is well aware that you're not the first one to criticize Chen's presentation, which is probably the reason you're getting pushback. People are kind of sick of it because it's starting to sound like people are basing their criticism on reputation more than anything. I agree with Procrastinator that the judges are being more fair to Chen than the fans (who'd have thought this would ever happen?). But I agree this is a worthless discussion to continue.

Sugarpova · Jan 9, 2018

I see all the disciplines not that set
even Med isnt a shoo in imo (before the injury I was almost sure she's in to get it)

If I had to bet I'd only bet for P/C for Gold

puremagic · Jan 9, 2018

Sugarpova said:
If I had to bet I'd only bet for P/C for Gold

Great time to become a richman, or a richgirl in your case! I know who will win Ladies' gold medal, and I'll make a bet. Finally I can afford to buy a yacht, and then will never show up online! :yes:

Ares · Jan 9, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Agree with all of that although unlike you I like Kolyada a lot, and would love to see him with a big result at the Games. Especialy since the mens event this year has been garbage anyway, despite the seemingly super deep field.

I'd not even mind Kolyada to win it all actually but only if it would not result in massive outrage a la Sotnikova. People already dislike him for scoring and winning medals at GPs / GPFs. While PCS are more debatable ... he scores well technically despite the errors but it makes sense, his programs are well designed for that, he has quads and he does not have a carrot problem at all. Elements alone are judged accurately for the most part after delving into criterias & protocols - and they add up this way for him. His skating skills are also not to be sniffed at.

Criticize the system if it bothers you.

Li'Kitsu · Jan 9, 2018

Sam L said:
Am I the only one who thinks the men’s event isn’t as open as we’d like to think? As much as I want Patrick to win, or Javi to medal, I think it’s between Nathan and Shoma. Yuzuru has had the injury and I’ll be surprised if he wins.

I'm actually happy every time people kind of write Yuzu off, but.... Yes he's been injured, but he sadly has a history of that, and he still often delivered under these circumstances.
We all know what happened in the 2014 GP, the crash with Han Yan, ending up in a wheelchair for a while - yet a few weeks later he ended up winning the GPF, and that with a score that would have won this years final as well. Despite the score inflation we've seen in recent seasons.
I by no means want to say that Yuzu is the clear favorite for gold, but I'm honestly surprised when people say he is less so then the youngsters.

Writing off Javi for a medal is equally weird to me. He still won JO over Shoma & Nathan and Idf over Shoma again. And he's enough of an established figure that he won't need any momentum to get huge scores when clean.

IMO the contest in men is quite open. Yuzu, Nathan & Shoma have a slide edge in terms of being the gold favorites, but I'd honestly not count out Javi, or Patrick, Mika or Boyang. If the men continue to skate like they did at the final, the gold will simply go to the one who kind of doesn't mess up I'm afraid.

schizoanalyst · Jan 9, 2018

Li'Kitsu said:
IMO the contest in men is quite open. Yuzu, Nathan & Shoma have a slide edge in terms of being the gold favorites, but I'd honestly not count out Javi, or Patrick, Mika or Boyang. If the men continue to skate like they did at the final, the gold will simply go to the one who kind of doesn't mess up I'm afraid.

The top men with the number and difficulty quads being done are so inconsistent, I'm convinced this is going to come down to who just sleeps best the night before.

xeyra · Jan 9, 2018

schizoanalyst said:
The top men with the number and difficulty quads being done are so inconsistent, I'm convinced this is going to come down to who just sleeps best the night before.

Let's hope everyone has a good SP because that might help them sleep better.

icybear · Jan 9, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Yes I agree. I think long term they will be better than Yu & Zhang though. Hao Zhang is probably in his mid to late 30s now (I know he is listed at 32 or 33 but lets be real, his age is clearly falsified, I remember what he looked like in SLC supposably at 17) and isnt going to get any better than he already is, and does not have the presentation or performance abilities or overall abilities to ever win a big title, even if he is physically strong.

What is it with western people and their huge obsession with the idea that all Chinese fake their age. Just think for a second what good does it make to have a younger age number? And your only proof is because he doesn't look his age to you. Larkyn AUSTMAN from Skate Canada this year looked like she was 35 yrs old not 19 yrs old, don't see anyone suspecting her of falsifying her age.

soogar · Jan 9, 2018

I remember that time really well- Ando with her quadruple salchow was the one the Japanese were behind. The boards were crazy with Ando supporters and she was heavily covered and followed by the Japanese media. Shizuka did not have the same attention even though she had won a world title two years prior. Her past season was difficult and I believe she had finished 8th at worlds.

NBC wasn't talking much about Shizuka until it became clear that she could sneak in there. It was all about Sasha. Also Japanese skaters aren't going to care about North American press - it's what happening at home that matters.

Leppis · Jan 9, 2018

eggnogkitty said:
Ladies is almost as sure. Medvedeva vs Zagitova for the gold and silver, unless Medvedeva is so injured she misses the game or is extremely hurt while competing. Medvedeva if reasonably healthy and ready is still the heavy favorite, and would need to make major mistakes for even Alina to beat her, but rustiniess and pressure could be a factor. Then the bronze is pretty close between Maria (presumably 3rd Russian at Games), Kaitlyn Osmond, possibly Miyahara, and possibly a couple others, although IMO those are the main hopefuls.

I think there is a really strong chance that if Carolina is clean, she will medal. Judges love her and she now has a Lutz in her program and hopefully will add a triple-triple in both ones. And personally, i don't think Osmond will medal. She just doesn't have the nerves and almost never delivers two solid programs. I'd love to be wrong, though.

icybear · Jan 9, 2018

Procrastinator said:
That's a bit unfair. He's not a bad performer and has good body tension and carriage; his skating skills are also decent. There's no comparison to Boyang. Nathan is on his way to becoming an artist, Kolyada is basically there,and Boyang will probably never get there.

Not sure what you mean by Nathan becoming an artist but generally the artists are the ones like Yuzuru, Jason Brown or maybe even Uno and Nathan will probably never get there. I don't think his 89pcs or whatever truly reflect his actual artistry more like the federation he's competing for

icybear · Jan 9, 2018

Putina said:
After watching the Nationals, I think Vincent Zhou is a better all around skater than Boyang Jin. The gap between Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou is not that big. We can have two American men on the podium.

If Zhou can actually fully rotate a quad that is to say. Besides his pcs are way too low to challenge the top (nationals pcs doesnt count)

yume · Jan 9, 2018

Leppis said:
I think there is a really strong chance that if Carolina is clean, she will medal. Judges love her and she now has a Lutz in her program and hopefully will add a triple-triple in both ones. And personally, i don't think Osmond will medal. She just doesn't have the nerves and almost never delivers two solid programs. I'd love to be wrong, though.

Osmond will do a "Yuna Kim". Never clean in both programs but will be at the biggest event.

Will all but mens be gold and bronze battle

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

Anyasnake

medoroa

Procrastinator

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

eggnogkitty

Match Penalty

Procrastinator

medoroa

Sugarpova

#EmpressAirlines #SinKatsapologist

puremagic

-

Ares

Li'Kitsu

schizoanalyst

xeyra

Constant state

icybear

soogar

Leppis

icybear

icybear

yume

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