Without her 3A Kihira doesn't beat any of the top Japanese ladies. She is still very young though.
2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating
- Thread starter yume
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- Mar 28, 2014
I think 1-2 will be Rika and Kaori with 3rd going to a surprise medalist. Perhaps Sofia, the third Russian, or Eunsoo. I don't see Alina winning a medal at Worlds.
Personally, I would be thrilled with a Japanese sweep or 1-2 like above with Eunsoo coming in third.
Side note: Did Kaori already start working on the 3A? I've noticed her axel in the second half of the free has had some issues this season?
I don't think you quite have a grip on the definition of "talent", so let me try restating.
Kihara's natural aptitude and physical ability are greater than any of the top Japanese ladies.
I would say Wakaba is superior in both aspects. Wakaba is faster and more powerful with quicker feet and better upper body control and natural rhythm. Right now Kihira is basically Mei Mihara with a 3A, which isn't a bad thing btw. This year Wakaba has been dealing with injuries and had a terrible year so it doesn't really matter right now. But at Worlds if all 3 Japanese ladies are clean and Rika doesn't do any 3A, It would be Satoko, Kaori, then Rika in that order and I doubt you would argue that.
Let's debate this. Rika scores 68.85 at 4CC without an axel jump. Give her a decent +3 GOE 2A and she's on about 73. She scores 153.14 with a 3A, 2A+3T, so if we downgrade the 3A, that's about 6 points lost, so about 147. Rika thus still manages to score 220 without 3As, and this is including a dodgy 3Lo landing.
How many Japanese ladies have season's bests of 220? Satoko gets very close, although her jumps are easily scrutinised. Kaori hasn't hit 215 yet. Mai hasn't hit 210. So, what makes you think Rika doesn't beat any of the other top Japanese ladies without a 3A? Indeed, who can beat a clean Rika even without any 3As? Clean Alina, Liza and Satoko (if NONE of her jumps are called UR) can, but not many others. (bear in mind that at Nationals, Rika popped a 3T and double-footed her 3Lz, which cost her 10 points)
To elaborate on Rika's insane talent. How many female skaters can put off a 3Lz combo to the second last jumping pass? Look at how many ladies fumble on opening 3Lz combos. Rika does her 3Lz+2T/3T fourth and 3Lz+2T+2Lo sixth. This is often AFTER two 3A attempts and a 3Lo. At NHK, for instance, her 3Lz was her fifth triple, after a 3A+3T, 3A, 3Lo. Then, her very last element is a 3S, about five seconds before the end of the program. How many skaters have the stamina to end their programs on a high quality triple?
You make some good points. However you do admit without a 3A she loses to clean Satoko. That's one. I would say a clean Kaori would probably beat her also because of her superior speed and jumps. Clean Wakaba in last years form would definitely beat her. So that would put her more or less on Mihara's level as I said. On top of that the reality is Rika's scores are inflated due her season long success because of her 3As. Without the 3As she doesn't have as much success during the year and her current scores would drop a few points for sure. Her stamina is impressive, but dont forget Wakaba did 2 3Lz3T combos, 1 in second half with a more aerobicly demanding program last year. So in conclusion you make good points but I stand by what I said. She is young and very good, but needs her 3A to win. But since she hits it pretty often I dont understand why that's bad to say.
If you take Rika's 4CC skates, replace all of her 3A attempts with clean 2As, then yes, Satoko has season's bests that are close. Give Rika the extra point or so lost on her 3Lo for the awkward landing and I don't think Satoko can beat that score anymore; 221, I believe, isn't something I can imagine Satoko scoring due to her jump deficiencies. Even if clean, it'll be hard to get high GOEs for her jumps to match Rika.
As for Kaori, internationally she's not currently getting scores near the 220 mark, which is what she would need to challenge a Rika without 3As. In an idealised situation, take her 4CC short of 73.36, take her GPF free of 141.45 and take away the fall on her combo; that gives her an extra 3 for the 2A+3T+2T GOE and another 1 for the fall deduction, putting her on roughly 219. That would also get close to Rika skating without 3As, except as above, still not quite enough. Now, Kaori has to be able to do that cleanly over both programs.
Rika has shown repeatedly that her only real issue is the 3A. She's quite capable of skating cleanly otherwise; NHK, GPF, 4CC were competitions where she only messed up the 3A, so considering Rika skating cleanly without 3As is quite realistic.
Whether or not Rika's PCS would drop significantly without 3As is another story, although it's going to be impossible to gauge as we probably won't see this scenario. I would agree that a PCS drop would be possible, although the magnitude is hard to gauge.
As for jumps, how does doing two 3Lz+3T, one in the second half, even compare to a 3A+3T, 3A, 3Lz+2T all in the first half, and then a 3Lz+2T+2Lo in the second half? Half of Rika's jumping passes across both programs involve a 3A or 3Lz. Wakaba did all her jumps first, with one spin after the first 3Lz+3T, and then did all the remaining spins, step sequences and choreo sequence after her final 3F. Rika does everything except the 3S and ends on that. I don't see how you can compare the difficulties of the two programs, even though I thoroughly enjoy watching both of them.
Again you make good points but I think our disagreement stems from the fact that I base my opinions on skaters ability more on watching the skaters than judges scores, which in the ISU are dubious at best. And in Rika's case I would say her scores this year are heavily influenced by the 3A obviously. Without the 3A, which is the reason for her wins this year, she wouldn't be getting the level of respect from the judges she does. Other than her 3A I dont see anything particularly outstanding from her skating compared to other top skaters other than rotation speed on jumps and lack of edge issues. The reason I bring up Wakaba on the difficulty issue is because she generally skates to higher tempo more demanding programs, not the jump content per se. Basically everything in skating is very subjective, even the basis for the numbers from the scoring, which can be affected by many things. So listing scores from programs I've already watched isnt going to change my opinion on the abilities of the skaters.
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- Jan 25, 2013
Not necessarily - her PCS is now higher than most, and she has good difficulty and no edge or UR issues. Her PB is 20 points higher than Sakamoto (when Kihira had a 3A<< at that). And IMO, even as a fresh-out-of-juniors, her current programs and artistry are second to only Miyahara. Mai needs better programs, Honda needs better jumps, Sakamoto needs better artistry and still looks a bit clunky (although has shown improvement), Wakaba needs to get her groove back in general.
I personally think it is rather pointless to discuss who is the most naturally talented, when all of them reached a level at which talent alone isnt enough anymore.
This sport will always be subjective and different people prefer or see more talent and potential in different skaters than others.
From my perspective, since I just watched both Rika and Wakaba live at the challenge cup, I personally prefer Rika, although Wakaba is charming and sells her Step Sequence really well.
Sad that both girls nailed their elements in the warm ups but failed in the program.
Rika did 2 gorgeous 3As in warm up and Wakaba landed both the 3Lz+3T and the 3F in warm ups as well.
Im excited to see their free skates tomorrow! Wishing them both well!
This sport will always be subjective and different people prefer or see more talent and potential in different skaters than others.
From my perspective, since I just watched both Rika and Wakaba live at the challenge cup, I personally prefer Rika, although Wakaba is charming and sells her Step Sequence really well.
Sad that both girls nailed their elements in the warm ups but failed in the program.
Rika did 2 gorgeous 3As in warm up and Wakaba landed both the 3Lz+3T and the 3F in warm ups as well.
Im excited to see their free skates tomorrow! Wishing them both well!
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2017
I think Joekez made a good point. Without 3A, Rika might not have got such PCS and GOE boost, she might have got lowballed in GOE like Kaori or PCS like other Japanese girls.
Good points. I should have prefaced it by saying if all are clean( which admittedly isn't realistic). I do think her PCS are inflated because of her success do to the 3A however. But without the 3A, I believe Sakamoto's superior speed and jumps and Miyahara's artistry would beat her. But it isnt a sure thing I agree. They would be pretty close. Kihira's biggest strength is a lack of major weakness. Speaking of Wakaba, I honestly think she is the most all around talented of the Japanese ladies, but her jumps have been a real mess this year and I hope she can fix things next year.
I agree to a point. But this whole line of comments started because a person commented that if Kaori got a 3A next season she would be unbeatable. I responded that Wakaba would be the best if she could get 3A and regain last years form. But this really boils down to how special you think Rika is if you take away the advantage she gets from 3A. I think she is about Mihara level. That is very good, but not the best. If Mie Mihara had 3A instead of Rika she would be number 1.I personally think it is rather pointless to discuss who is the most naturally talented, when all of them reached a level at which talent alone isnt enough anymore.
This sport will always be subjective and different people prefer or see more talent and potential in different skaters than others.
From my perspective, since I just watched both Rika and Wakaba live at the challenge cup, I personally prefer Rika, although Wakaba is charming and sells her Step Sequence really well.
Sad that both girls nailed their elements in the warm ups but failed in the program.
Rika did 2 gorgeous 3As in warm up and Wakaba landed both the 3Lz+3T and the 3F in warm ups as well.
Im excited to see their free skates tomorrow! Wishing them both well!
Sure Rika without her 3A might not be as phenomenal as she is now. However, she would've been able to devote the time she spent on her 3A on her other jumps, spins, or components. You can't necessarily just remove her 3A and look at everything else the same way.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
But that's a moot point now... Kihira's PCS is at a point where even without the 3As she'd probably score above 70+ if everything else is clean. Yes, the 3As helped her get to this point but if she suddenly lost them it's not like the rest of her skating doesn't make up for it (no shade to skaters that legit depend on the 3A like Tukt and Nagasu to be in the running).
That could be true. But judges are strange. They might start to expect 3A from her and actually punish her if none are tried. No telling with judges.
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- Feb 25, 2014
You can't always trust PCS at Senior Bs because they artificially set the ceiling lower. See: Satoko's PCS at Bavarian Open.
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Satoko was also majorly lowballed at the Bavarian Open, so I guess these late-season senior Bs aren't interested in providing big PCS.
Obviously not going to be an issue at Worlds.
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