2018-19 Ladies' power ranking

xeyra said:

Just a correction: a win in a Challenger competition is 300 points. 250 is for other international B competitions but if it has the CS title, a win gets 300.

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Thanks for pointing this out. The Communication that I found on the World Standings page wasn't updated to distinguish between an IC and a CS, and the CS ranking point information is actually found in the Challenger Series Communication. Post updated.

Here's my ranking that everyone's been waiting for. As a very very VERY casual ladies' FS fan you can expect my analysis to be CUTTING EDGE and nearly PERFECT in analysis so get ready:

1. Alina - she is unfortunately and unfairly unmatched in PCS and GOEs
2. Rika Kihira - breaking record TES and winning gold in her senior GP debut and she did that with a flawed SP. She has a MASSIVE scoring potential and proved that she can beat a nearly flawless Satoko without breaking a sweat. I'm terrified of her and am praying to the skating gods she stays healthy and consistent. Can you imagine her winning Worlds this year??? I would die and come back to life, completely revitalized
3. Satoko Miyahara - with a 1-2 finish and four (?) clean performances Satoko has raised herself to the level of a real podium threat. If Alina or Rika make multiple uncharacteristic mistakes, a clean Satoko has it in her to beat them. Hopefully with these last two amazing outings her PCS will start to rise and at least begin to match Alina's
4. Liza Tuk - consistency on the 3A and big 3Lzes make Liza a podium threat, though if everyone above her is clean the best she could do is probably 3rd or 4th depending on any UR calls on Satoko
5. Kaori/Evgenia - Kaori is so consistent but I think that a clean Evgenia beats her. Depending on how Evgenia's performs I might move her up a spot and keep Liza and Kaori tied
6. Um idk I only felt like doing the top 6 ladies because I don't know squat about anyone else oops

In short. I liked Rika Kihira. Good to see someone is making it more competitive and challenging for Russian ladies.

American and Canadian girls really should take a notice - Japanese girls are not complaining about raising age limit, about judging and about etc, but they humbly work, work and work. Much respect to the Japanese culture. Although I only heard Sakomoto complained once about that traditional "adult female figure skating" issue. Yet I bet when she was 15-16 years old she skated in seniors as well and won a lot of skaters a bit older her age.

Respect to Rika! I wish her health and more consistency! Ata girl. :clapper:

tokoyami said:

Here's my ranking that everyone's been waiting for. As a very very VERY casual ladies' FS fan you can expect my analysis to be CUTTING EDGE and nearly PERFECT in analysis so get ready:

1. Alina - she is unfortunately and unfairly unmatched in PCS and GOEs
2. Rika Kihira - breaking record TES and winning gold in her senior GP debut and she did that with a flawed SP. She has a MASSIVE scoring potential and proved that she can beat a nearly flawless Satoko without breaking a sweat. I'm terrified of her and am praying to the skating gods she stays healthy and consistent. Can you imagine her winning Worlds this year??? I would die and come back to life, completely revitalized
3. Satoko Miyahara - with a 1-2 finish and four (?) clean performances Satoko has raised herself to the level of a real podium threat. If Alina or Rika make multiple uncharacteristic mistakes, a clean Satoko has it in her to beat them. Hopefully with these last two amazing outings her PCS will start to rise and at least begin to match Alina's
4. Liza Tuk - consistency on the 3A and big 3Lzes make Liza a podium threat, though if everyone above her is clean the best she could do is probably 3rd or 4th depending on any UR calls on Satoko
5. Kaori/Evgenia - Kaori is so consistent but I think that a clean Evgenia beats her. Depending on how Evgenia's performs I might move her up a spot and keep Liza and Kaori tied
6. Um idk I only felt like doing the top 6 ladies because I don't know squat about anyone else oops

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Rika, Satoko, and Liza had some jumping passes that scored higher GOEs than Alina's at Helsinki.

[email protected] said:

#5 Evgenija Medvedeva -1 No news. Her spot in the team still looks safe but she has to win in France with a good margin. Not making GPF might become the turning point in her career. And don't tell me about Kostner and Bejing.

#8 Mai Mihara Mai will fight with Mako for the place in the team - looks like she reached her potential and it is lower than Satoko's

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About Medvedeva's career, it's better to make the Leonova's example than the Caro's one. Being russian will change everything.
Medvedeva still has chances to skate for years on GPs, the question is if she can stay next to the better ones without improve the value of her TES. Don't making the GPF may not be a turning point for her, if after the nationals we'll than still see her at euros and worlds. Just as be on the GPF wasn't enough for Voronov, on the past season, to skate on the following competitions.

What team are you implying about Mai ? Right now the fight for the japanese's third spot is also with Sakamoto

tokoyami said:

1. Alina - she is unfortunately and unfairly unmatched in PCS and GOEs

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The other ladies are closing the gap and earning PBs on their own merits, as seen at NHK. Reputation scoring can only last so long. However, I predict we can expect some very generous scoring at Rostelecom next week including: higher SS and IN than Satoko at NHK and the judges will shower Alina's 3Lz combos (if cleanish) with +5 GOEs, which even Liza Tukt doesn't get .

BillNeal said:

The other ladies are closing the gap and earning PBs on their own merits, as seen at NHK. Reputation scoring can only last so long. However, I predict we can expect some very generous scoring at Rostelecom next week including: higher SS and IN than Satoko at NHK and the judges will shower Alina's 3Lz combos (if cleanish) with +5 GOEs, which even Liza Tukt doesn't get .

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Yep, shame on NHK judges for not showering Liza with +5 GOEs on her jumps.

hasn't alina's jumps been declining in quality and rotations? if that's the case then shame on any judge that would ever shower such a jump with +4s or 5s

*I don't watch alina too much so I cant speak to the quality of her jumps and I am admittedly very biased against the scores she receives

to be honest, when I said that Alina was being unfairly given big GOEs I mean in the Choreo and Steps sequences. Compared to what the other girls are putting out Alina is terribly overscored in that regard. I can't speak too much about the jumps as it is my understanding she's typically a good jumper

tokoyami said:

hasn't alina's jumps been declining in quality and rotations? if that's the case then shame on any judge that would ever shower such a jump with +4s or 5s

*I don't watch alina too much so I cant speak to the quality of her jumps and I am admittedly very biased against the scores she receives

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She grew up 6cm since Olympics of course her jumps will change but I wouldn't say they’re declining since she somehow managed to keep them and it says a lot about her.

tokoyami said:

hasn't alina's jumps been declining in quality and rotations? if that's the case then shame on any judge that would ever shower such a jump with +4s or 5s

*I don't watch alina too much so I cant speak to the quality of her jumps and I am admittedly very biased against the scores she receives

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her 3Lz is shaky now, which leads to shaky 3T and 3Lo in combo after 3Lz. Judges shower her +4s and 5s only in Nebelhorn while in Helsinki its mostly 3s. But her next event is in Russia, we can expect 235-240 again if she went clean, i think her UR also might get ignored unless it's that obvious.

sweetice said:

About Medvedeva's career, it's better to make the Leonova's example than the Caro's one. Being russian will change everything.
Medvedeva still has chances to skate for years on GPs, the question is if she can stay next to the better ones without improve the value of her TES. Don't making the GPF may not be a turning point for her, if after the nationals we'll than still see her at euros and worlds. Just as be on the GPF wasn't enough for Voronov, on the past season, to skate on the following competitions.

What team are you implying about Mai ? Right now the fight for the japanese's third spot is also with Sakamoto

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Leonova is an outstanding professional with big love for figure skating. But she started competitive career in different times. She was lucky this time to get a GP spot as a replacement skater and she delivered. Will she get another one next year? May be yes - her season's best is already higher than 190. And we have the previous generation (Pogo, Radionova, Sotskova, Tsurskaya) vanishing. The season after the next? I have serious doubts. The coming junior generation is the strongest ever. That's the main concern and not to Leonova (she already proved everything to everyone) but to Medvedeva.

As for Mai, I was not precise. I think that the team is Rika, Satoko, Kaori and Mai will fight with Mako for the replacement spot like Stasya with Sofia in Russia.

tokoyami said:

hasn't alina's jumps been declining in quality and rotations? if that's the case then shame on any judge that would ever shower such a jump with +4s or 5s

*I don't watch alina too much so I cant speak to the quality of her jumps and I am admittedly very biased against the scores she receives

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Then watch her Nebelhorn free skate (or better the Japan open one). The only jump that is suspect is the 3lo. Everything thing else is top notch, including her spins. The only thing that receive to much GOE IMO is her choreo sequence.
She may not have the biggest jumps but they are not tiny either. They are on average and her flip is a bit higher than average i think. Rotation speed is good when she's on. She has transitions in and out, rippons, most of jumps match the music. Honestly she is not really overscored in GOEs. She's mostly overscored in PCS.
I think that in Finland nerves and her knee made her jumps look less good than usual. It can be different at Rostelecom.

I can see ISU allows quads in SP before 2022 olympics.

yume said:

I can see ISU allows quads in SP before 2022 olympics.

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nah
look at how the rule develop.
they will rather increase the age to 17 than to allow quads in SP

In fact i see them restricting the 3As because "senior girls"

I think people are getting overly excited about the upcoming juniors to the point that they think the current senior ladies are apprehensive about their own competitive futures, which I'm sure they aren't to the degree that they make them out to be. The skaters are thinking about this season, first and foremost. Their long term plan would consider their strengths/weaknesses, their goals, and their own motivations for competing. Skaters don't simply 'vanish' because of the potential BV of juniors that aren't even competing with them yet. Who knows how many of these juniors will actually make a successful transition to seniors? Medvedeva and Zagitova had success right away but there's also Tsurskaya, Sakhanovich who aren't as successful. Higuchi struggled somewhat on her first senior season, then had her breakout season. Skaters' careers have different trajectories, with so many unknown factors. The seniors should focus on what they should work on now to improve themselves rather than worry about the projected career paths of others.

FS101 said:

1. Alina Zagitova (obvious, and has very good jumps and a huge scoring capacity)
2. Rika Kihira (if she goes cleans, she has a good chance of beating Zagitova)
3 Satoko Miyahara, beautifully skates and gets a bit underscored on the PCs. But her technical difficulty in her jumps isn’t enough to beat Kihira or Zagitiva if they goes clean.
4. Evgenia Medvedeva (will struggle a bit this season, but it in long run she’ll improve)
5. Kaori Sakamoto (has good jumps, but her best when clean is only around 210-220 range
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva lacks consistency generally (well SP, bad FS and opposite) and also with the triple axel, but when she lands it she’ll score high, and she needs higher technical difficulty on the rest of her jumps.
7. Sofia Samodurova (good consistency, but has low PCs because it’s her 1st Senior Year. But if she continues to be cleanish, then her PCs will rise.
8. Mai Mihara, Ok jumps, gives a decent performers, ok scoring capacity in 205-220 range. But doesn’t have anything big that will her ahead of other skaters.
9. Bradie Tennel, Has a Lutz-Loop combo that isn’t consistent like the rest of her jumps. Also she does have good jumps and good scoring capacity but not enough to be at the top.
10. Carolina Kostner, She hasn’t competed yet but she always gives an amazing performance and gets fairly high PCs always. Also last season she scored in the 205-215 range often. The only thing is that she doesn’t have the technical difficulty which put her behind.
(11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th would be Loena Hendriccx, Mariah Bell, Mako Yamshita and Wakaba Higuichi)

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1. Alina Zagitova- no change
2. Rika Kihira- no change
3. Satoko Miyahara and Elizaveta Tuktamyshaeva Tied, since comparing them on the technical and peformance wise, one excels in one and while one in the other pretty equally and this was reflected at NHK
4. Evgenia Medvedeva- no change
5. Kaori Sakamoto- no change
6. Mai Mihara and Sofia Samodurova- I really like these two skaters, and both are very consistent and will do well.
7. Carolina Kostner- still has not competed yet but I have a feeling she's going to do somewhat well this season
8. Bradie Tennel- no change
9. Mako Yamashita and Mariah Bell- Although these two skaters are not very similar technical and performance wise, I think they will score in the same range.
10. Loena Hendriccx- had a good outing at GP Finland and I really like her FS and has so much potential
(11th to 14th would be Wakaba Higuchi, Yuna Shirwaira, Eunsoo Lim, and Elizabet Tursynbaeva)

Sorry about the misspelling!!

Bravo to Gracie Gold today ! She is showing all of us that skaters don’t just retire or ‘vanish’ because they are afraid of competition from juniors or seniors. She is facing competition head on, in a stadium full of people, on her own terms. It’s not always about the results. Skaters like Gracie and Caro should be respected for coming back after a two year break to skate for the love of the sport. A commendable effort indeed!

I'm going to go out on a limb and include juniors in my power ranking. The purpose of the ranking, after all, is to identify potential talents for 2022 and rank who is likely to skate the best up until then. This is my personal opinion of if we had a competition right now, no restrictions, who would get the highest score.

1. Alina Zagitova - I wouldn't call her a favorite for anything other than Worlds 2019. But the junior's quads translating into seniors which is 1 year in the future is still dubious. Alina has shown she can weather changes to her body, and maintain a level, that will necessitate the current juniors to skate clean with quad(s) and get PCS boost to beat.
2. Alexandra Trusova - Quad, quad, quad, that is all. I will be hesitant to move her to the first spot until she executes quads at the senior level and shown that they can last. But I have a feeling she will be number 1 soon.
3. Rika Kihira - mainly based on her performance at the NHK. But her 3A seems quite consistent and is more useful than any one quad since it can be done in the short. Her PCS will go up too if she puts in a few more NHK like performances.
4. Alena Kostornaia - Beautiful skating skills and incredibly consistent too. She NEEDS a triple axel though.
5. Anna Shcherbakova - quads also. and PCS are not too bad also, and triple jumps that will get high GOEs
6. Satoko Miyahara - Jumps are small, but curiously has been getting more GOEs this season. At big events urs tend to be overlooked which is good for Satoko. But I can't see judges letting her tiny jumps win a major event, and they do hinder her PCS score also. And her tiny jumps preclude her from trying 3A/4s.
7. Elizaveta Tuktymysheva - She is looking stronger than ever. Jumps amazing, maybe get a 3F and second 3A. She has a low PCS ceiling (68) though. Really nothing she can do about that.
8. Evgenia Medvedeva - With her e jumps and URs being called, and her jumps more inconsistent than ever, Evgenia is in a precarious position. Her performance at her next GP will be very important for her to save her PCS cushion, if she bombs, I think moving forward her PCS will drop considerably. Her PCS is already a lot less than Alina...if perfectly clean probably a 72 compared to 75 for Alina.
9. Carolina Kostner - Judges will throw PCS to her, she will get the highest PCS at any event she goes to, even if she bombs. She will probably have an easier program than most, and make more mistakes on average, but it's not like no one else will make mistakes either]. Respect to her though, her longevity is unparalleled, especially in this day and age.
10. Kaori Sakamoto - relatively consistent but has got a low ceiling, nothing too special

Also notice the country diversity here...not much. In a real event there can only be max 3 Russians. Such is the nature of figure skating.

Hmm pending results next week I might put Rika above Alina now. Seems like Alina is still be actively growing and adjusting throughout this season, so there's less room for error than she used to have. When she gets tight during competitions mistakes are more frequent.