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Thread: 2018-2019 Ice Dance's Power Ranking

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    2018-2019 Ice Dance's Power Ranking

    The Ladies and Mens threads have been around for a while, so it's time for Ice dancers to join them. After the last olympic cycle some top teams decided to finish their competitive carreers (Virtue/Moir, Cappellini/Lanotte, Bobrova/Soloviev), some decided to sit out this competitive season (Shibutani/Shibutani) and some we haven't seen yet competing this season. Last year world champions Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA) and former world medalists and last year top 5 finishers Chock/Bates (USA) should back to the competition later in the season, but their past results are giving them a pass to this list (their placement in TOP 10 will be decided later with their first results). Weaver/Poje decided to skip Grand prix season and competed only in one challenger so their placement here should be taken as the least accurate.

    1. Hubbell/Donohue (USA) - They are current world silver medalist and they won all competitions they entered this season. They have the highest Rhythm dance score and they were awarded with the highest GOEs of all the teams on the list. But those other teams are very very close and some of them have already beaten them in the Free Dance portion.
    2. Stepanova/Bukin (RUS) - They started strongly this Olympic cycle - their average score is even a little bit higher than Hubbell/Donohue's average score (200.44 vs 199.67) and if they continue this momentum they can go just above them. They also have top scoring Choreo sequence this season (their choreo twizzles in Free dance).
    3. Weaver/Poje (CAN) - Current world bronze medalist with only one (but good) competition this season as a refference.
    4. Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS) - After the last season's injury they came back this season stronger than ever. They are the team with highest average Program components score so far this season, so if they up their Levels they could shoot right in the lead.
    5. Guignard/Fabbri (ITA) - Tied with Stepanova/Bukin and Weaver/Poje, they are one of the teams with the highest average Base Value in Free Dance. Also their twizzles from Free Dance are the top scoring twizzle element this season.
    6. Gilles/Poirier (CAN) - Their grand prix competition went with a big mistake in Rhythm Dance, but if they are skating without it they can go up in this list. Fans favorites cause their uniqness and originality.
    7. Hawayek/Baker (USA) - They have only one outgoing this season but that gave them a win at the Grand Prix.
    8. Zagorski/Guerreiro (RUS) - Their Rhythm Dance has the highest average base value for now, so they are good in hitting the Tango Levels. But they need to work on their Free Dance if they want to move up.

    Close to top 10 list, but still away so far - Mcnamara/Carpenter (USA), Lauriault/Le Gac (FRA), Fear/Gibson (GBR), Hurtado/Khaliavin (ESP), Parsons/Parsons (USA), Smart/Diaz (ESP), Carreira/Ponomarenko (USA).
    Last edited by Baron Vladimir; 11-12-2018 at 11:15 AM. Reason: Finishing the post

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    What criteria are you using for these rankings? It all seems very arbitrary without knowing HOW they are ranked.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Vladimir View Post
    8. Zagorski/Guerreiro (RUS) - Their Rhythm Dance has the highest base value for now, so they are good in hitting the Tango Levels.
    McNamara & Carpenter's Rhythm Dance from Skate America has the highest base value for now. Their Free Dance from Nepela has the highest base value also.

    I think your list is as good as anything for what we've seen so far. Adding that Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson have not skated internationally yet and should probably be in the mix among the teams you have listed in the final paragraph. Also we will never know what the top 10 are since only 3 U.S. teams and 2 Russian teams can qualify for Worlds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice Dance View Post
    McNamara & Carpenter's Rhythm Dance from Skate America has the highest base value for now. Their Free Dance from Nepela has the highest base value also.

    I think your list is as good as anything for what we've seen so far. Adding that Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson have not skated internationally yet and should probably be in the mix among the teams you have listed in the final paragraph. Also we will never know what the top 10 are since only 3 U.S. teams and 2 Russian teams can qualify for Worlds.
    I meant Highest Average Base Value (from all the international competitions they entered this season so far). Mcnamara/Carpenter average is lower! (Those informations are taken from reliable site which is dealing with scores of the skaters). Also, number of slots for competitions was not a factor in my list (like it isn't in any other Power Ranking list). And I'm waiting for Fournier Beaudry/Sorenson debut too Positions of the skaters will change depend of the course of the season, but you can add your own list with your own thoughts. It will be highly appriciated, and maybe taken in consideration with future changes

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    Quote Originally Posted by WeakAnkles View Post
    What criteria are you using for these rankings? It all seems very arbitrary without knowing HOW they are ranked.
    Based on the scores and results they got this (2018-2019) season (average scores, best results, head to head results and reputation - some of the past results), like all the other Power Rankings in this forum (Ladies and Men). You are free to debate the ranking, maybe propose something to consider etc

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    Medalist Hyena's Avatar
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    Based on their SB scores thus far this year, right now I'm seeing 4 distinct groups of upper tier Ice Dance teams

    Group 1 (SB 200+)
    Hubbell / Donohue - 200.82
    Stepanova / Bukin - 200.78

    Group 2 (SB mid-upper 190s)
    Weaver /Poje - 197.27
    Sinitsina / Katsalapov - 196.42
    Guignard / Fabbri - 196.29
    Gilles / Poirier - 194.12

    Group 3 (SB mid 180s)
    Hawayek / Baker - 184.63
    Zagorski / Guerreiro - 183.05

    Group 4 (SB low 180s)
    Parsons / Parsons - 180.95
    McNamara / Carpenter - 180.57
    Lauriault / LeGac - 180.32
    Smart / Diaz - 180.07

    What's interesting to me is the way the teams seem to be clustering around certain scores - AFAIK there is no one between Weaver/Poje and Stepanova/Bukin or between Hawayek/Baker and Gilles / Poirier. You could make an argument for putting G/P in a group below W/P, S/K, and G/F, but they are also far above the next two down at this point.

    There are two teams around 177, Carreira / Ponomorenko and Fear / Gibson. C/P I would not be surprised to see top 180+ next week as the likely second place finishers at Rostelecom Cup.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Vladimir View Post
    Positions of the skaters will change depend of the course of the season, but you can add your own list with your own thoughts. It will be highly appriciated, and maybe taken in consederation with future changes
    Have to head elsewhere at the moment, but maybe tonight. I think of it more in sets of who is competitive with who? Obviously, things are different in competitions. Scores run differently. Quality of performances are different. We can't know how the head-to-heads will go until they happen. And I ALWAYS think the head-to-heads are more important than score comparisons. There are some really intriguing questions at the moment for this season. For example, those super tight RD scores in Finland.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice Dance View Post
    Have to head elsewhere at the moment, but maybe tonight. I think of it more in sets of who is competitive with who? Obviously, things are different in competitions. Scores run differently. Quality of performances are different. We can't know how the head-to-heads will go until they happen. And I ALWAYS think the head-to-heads are more important than score comparisons. There are some really intriguing questions at the moment for this season. For example, those super tight RD scores in Finland.
    Ice Dance - agreed! That was my thought process behind my post above. I'd love to hear what you think about how I broke the groups down. I do expect these to shift after the GP final.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hyena View Post
    C/P I would not be surprised to see top 180+ next week as the likely second place finishers at Rostelecom Cup.
    Hurtado & Khaliavin outscored them in Finland.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice Dance View Post
    Have to head elsewhere at the moment, but maybe tonight. I think of it more in sets of who is competitive with who? Obviously, things are different in competitions. Scores run differently. Quality of performances are different. We can't know how the head-to-heads will go until they happen. And I ALWAYS think the head-to-heads are more important than score comparisons. There are some really intriguing questions at the moment for this season. For example, those super tight RD scores in Finland.
    Well, some of the teams are really close to each other, and i think a lot of them can medal depends of the day of the competition, but the point of Power rankings is to try to make a differentiation (to rank them somehow)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hyena View Post
    Group 3 (SB mid 180s)
    Hawayek / Baker - 184.63
    Zagorski / Guerreiro - 183.05

    Group 4 (SB low 180s)
    Parsons / Parsons - 180.95
    McNamara / Carpenter - 180.57
    Lauriault / LeGac - 180.32
    Smart / Diaz - 180.07
    I decline to place McNamara & Carpenter and Hawayek & Baker in separate groups until they skate an actual head-to-head. They have split SB scores in the RD and the Free. They both split results with Zagorski & Guerreiro. M&C finished closer head-to-head with Z&G than Z&G did head-to-head with H&B. Both M&C and H&B have defeated the Parsons this season. I want the head-to-head. I wanted an international one first, but I will have to take Nationals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Vladimir View Post
    Well, some of the teams are really close to each other, and i think a lot of them can medal depends of the day of the competition, but the point of Power rankings is to try to make a differentiation (to rank them somehow)
    Totally understood; and as I said above, I think your list is as logical as any. If I put one together per your recommendation, though, mine would probably wind up with likely "battles" rather than a straightforward ranking at this point. Clearly it would have to be a more than one day process, however. Since I typed a few thoughts for about an hour after I got home this evening, and I'm still only on the 4th team from the top. LOL.

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    Battles could be an interesting thing to do. Mortal combat fans will love it too

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    What are the benchmarks of the world ice dance hierarchy with the evolution of rules and notations for this new season?
    Season 2017-2018: SD = 85.3, FD = 124.7, Total = 210.0
    This season 2018-2019: RD = 91.52, FD = 137.84, Total = 229.36.
    This is a significant change, the ISU statistics are archived, new ones are starting this year.
    There is, however, a method for understanding the evolution of scores as the rule changes; it is the translation of the score obtained as a percentage of the maximum theoretical score (perfect).
    Thus, a pair that skates 90% of perfection scored 189 last season ... and will get a score of 206.4 this season.
    Out of curiosity, I made this comparison for 20 couples of Ice Dance.
    Postulate: I compared the scores of the 1st GP between the 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 seasons ... except for W/P where I took, as an element of comparison, the CS Autumn classic 2018 score.
    All that is missing is the C/B and P/C scores.
    Couples are ranked in descending order of this season's score (1st GP, except W/P).

    -------------------------------------------- 1st GP17 / % ----- 1st GP18 / % ----/ Evolution

    HUBBELL / DONOHUE ----------------- 189.43 / 90.2% ---- 200.82 / 87.6% ----/ -2.65%
    STEPANOVA / BUKIN ------------------ 179.35 / 85.4% ---- 200.09 / 87.2% ----/ 1.83%
    WEAVER / POJE ------------------------ 190.01 / 90.5% ---- 197.27 / 86.0% ----/ -4.47%
    SINITSINA / KATSALAPOV ------------ 177.15 / 84.4% ---- 195.17 / 85.1% ----/ 0.74%
    GUIGNARD / FABBRI ------------------ 171.37 / 81.6% ---- 192.30 / 83.8% ----/ 2.24%
    GILLES / POIRIER --------------------- 172.29 / 82.0% ---- 186.97 / 81.5% ----/ -0.52%
    HAWAYEK / BAKER -------------------- 165.20 / 78.7% ---- 184.63 / 80.5% ----/ 1.83%
    ZAGORSKI / GUERREIRO ------------- 164.41 / 78.3% ---- 181.43 / 79.1% ----/ 0.81%
    MCNAMARA / CARPENTER ------------ 157.61 / 75.1% ---- 180.52 / 78.7% ----/ 3.65%
    LAURIAULT / LE GAC ------------------ 147.19 / 70.1% ---- 180.32 / 78.6% ----/ 8.53%
    PARSONS / PARSONS ----------------- 148.75 / 70.8% ---- 178.54 / 77.8% ----/ 7.01%
    SMART / DIAZ ------------------------- 154.81 / 73.7% ---- 176.57 / 77.0% ----/ 3.26%
    HURTDAO / KHALIAVIN --------------- 165.03 / 78.6% ---- 172.09 / 75.0% ----/ -3.56%
    FEAR / GIBSON ----------------------------------------------- 170.70 / 74.4% ----/ --------
    CARREIRA / PONOMARENKO --------------------------------- 167.28 / 72.9% --- / --------
    WANG / LIU ---------------------------- 151.17 / 72.0% ---- 165.88 / 72.3% ----/ 0.34%
    POPOVA / MOZGOV ------------------- 164.02 / 78.1% ---- 157.56 / 68.7% ----/ -9.41%
    SOUCISSE / FIRUS -------------------- 150.27 / 71.6% ---- 156.74 / 68.3% ----/ -3.22%

    You can compare from one season to another the evolution of this or that couple.
    In the end, we note a certain stability of performance on this perimeter of competitors (reminder: couples with high scores, do not compete this year: V/M, S/S, C/L, B/S ...): average of 78% in both 2017/2018 and 2018/2019.
    Finally, let's turn the 2017/2018 score of C/B and P/C into a 2018/2019 score (postulate: zero evolution rate) ... We get the two best scores. These WDs are unfair, for couples obviously in the first place, for us fans too.

    PAPADAKIS / CIZERON ---------------- 200.43 / 95.4% ---- 218.90 / 95.4% ----/ 0.00%
    CHOCK / BATES -------------------- --- 184.50 / 87.9% ---- 201.52 / 87.9% ----/ 0.00%

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    Quote Originally Posted by Escarbille View Post
    You can compare from one season to another the evolution of this or that couple.
    It's interesting what you've done, and kudos for all the hard work.

    A few observations: I think you've used Europeans for Hurtado & Khaliavin's score? They had no GP last season, and their early Challenger score would have been much lower. My guess is that if you used Finlandia from last season, their percentage would be up quite a bit.

    Likewise, I'm looking at the list & feeling like a lot of these numbers have more to do with how & where teams performed in their first GP last season than how they performed in general last year. Cup of Russia was full of mistakes: the Parsons, Lauriault & Le Gac, Gilles & Poirier, Guignard & Fabbri all had issues. It was the first event last season. Not surprising to see those teams' percentages up for their first event this season. Skate Canada was a high scoring event last year. Hubbell & Donohue, Weaver & Poje, Soucisse & Firus all were there. Not surprising to see those teams' percentages down for their first event this season. (Interesting that Smart & Diaz's is up despite some issues in their FD this year. He missed the twizzles last year so I'd have thought it might be a wash). And then, of course, there were a few big mistakes at the opening GP events this season. Soucisse & Firus and Gilles & Poirier. And of course, Weaver & Poje don't have a first GP for this season.

    So again, kudos for the hard work. Just thought I should mention some of these things based on the actual performances in some of those competitions.

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    So I guess the biggest surprise this year is now Fear and Gibson’s (GBR) FD score of over 113pts at NHK That’s the 8th best score this year. If they get their RD scores to rise, they could seriously put some pressure on some very good teams.

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    So really the best was saved for last, as the final set of dances was unveiled, from Papadakis and Cizeron at TdF. I think they have the tango expression nailed down, especially Cizeron, and just need to work on cleaning up the pattern. Their free dance was a pleasant surprise, a different direction for them. It feels fresh and the seamless integration of their moves has even improved from their previous programs. They even improved their spin, which although had great speed before, was pretty much the same two positions during the past quad. P/C are far ahead of the pack on the GP. Unfortunately, Hubbell/Donohue's programs are too inferior in comparison to challenge them. The only team that I see coming even close to them is perhaps Weaver/Poje, who have great programs this season and are looking good executing them, from the fancams of the TTYCT.

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    Papadakis/Cizeron are back so it's time for relisting. They went straight to the lead. Teams ranked from 2nd to 5th are really really really close and their placements could go eather way on a competition day. With no Chock/Bates on the side i decided to put another team in the top 10 list.
    1. Papadakis/Cizeron FRA NEW - They are in a poll position based on the highest total score, highest average GOE, highest average component score (9.75), highest free dance base value with top scoring step sequence and one-foot step sequence.
    2. Hubbell/Donohue USA (-1) - They still have the highest average Rythm Dance score from the rest of the pack mainly because the highest average GOE they recieved. However, other 3 teams behind them all have better scored Free Dance.
    3. Stepanova/Bukin RUS (-1) - Can go up if they perform better their Rhythm Dance.
    4. Sinitsina/Katsalapov RUS (--) - Tied with Stepanova/Bukin their average components score (9.2) is just behind P/C, and their average score is just ahead of W/P.
    5. Weaver/Poje CAN (-2) - Maybe it was not the best decision to skip Grand Prix season cause two other teams came to be noticed.
    6. Guignard/Fabbri ITA (-1) - Their Free Dance twizzles are still top scoring twizzle element.
    7. Gilles/Poirier CAN (-1) - Can go up if they start to get higher levels and GOE. Not for now
    8. Hawayek/Baker USA (-1) - Will be in the Grand Prix final.
    9. Zagorski/Guerreiro RUS (-1) - They still have the highest average Rhythm Dance base value, so there is a potental to go up.
    10. Mcnamara/Carpenter USA NEW - Based on the average total score they win (by a hair) this place over Lauriault/Le Gac (FRA), Hurtado/Khaliavin (ESP), Fear/Gibson (GBR), Carreira/Ponomarenko (USA), Parsons/Parsons (USA) and Smart/Diaz (ESP).

  19. #19
    Medalist Hyena's Avatar
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    Going mainly on Season Bests again:

    Papadakis/Cizeron - 216.78
    They are clearly the class of the field and will continue to be unless they falter in their next couple competitions and another team REALLY steps it up.

    Hubbell/Donohue - 200.82
    Stepanova/Bukin - 200.78
    Sinitsina/Katsalapov - 200.38
    All have scores within 0.50 of each other and will want to be on top of their game at the GPF (and for S/B and S/K, at Russian Nationals too). S/K has the momentum of a 4-point SB jump after France. S/B got a huge score in the FD last week at Rostelecom but struggled with the pattern in the RD. It's been the longest since we've seen Hubbell/Donohue, so it's tough to say what they'll look like in a couple weeks.

    Guignard/Fabbri - 196.29
    G/F have been consistently scoring between 192-196 all season and, ranking wise, are in their own bubble right now.

    Gilles/Poirier - 194.12
    So, their SB came from their Challenger event. At Skate Canada and IdF they scored 186.97 and 188.74, respectively, with some big swings in the RD and FD scores. At Canada, they obviously had the huge mistake right between the patterns, and in France they didn't seem to get the levels or the GOE they wanted in their FD. While IMO they have the absolute best FD of the season and a good RD too, they're lagging behind the top teams and might be vulnerable to one of the teams below rising.

    Hawayek/Baker - 184.63
    Zagorski / Guerreiro - 183.05
    These two are pretty much even with each other in ever way. Both have only completed twice, at their two GPs, and both scored 181 and change at their non-SB GP. Z/G probably have more momentum since their second GP was their higher score, plus better scores from the RD.

    Parsons/Parsons - 180.95
    McNamara/Carpenter - 180.57
    Lauriault/Le Gac - 180.32
    Smart/Diaz - 180.07
    I would say McNamara/Carpenter are the "leaders" of this group since they're the only ones consistently scoring 174+ (I totally agree with them rounding out your top 10, Baron). The others have at least two scores each, including a GP event, that are below 171.50. Lauriault/Le Gac have the next highest season average, 174.72.

  20. #20
    You Know I'm a FS Fan... BillNeal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baron Vladimir View Post
    5. Weaver/Poje CAN (-2) - Maybe it was not the best decision to skip Grand Prix season cause two other teams came to be noticed.
    They may have skipped the Grand Prix but they have been alternating showing their RD and their FD for the TTYCT. Essentially, they have been doing multiple runthroughs of their programs in front of an audience every week. Some nice fancams I found:

    RD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyLzbafH0fA
    FD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1RK9Wws3gE

    They're looking superb I see them winning Nationals, 4CC and placing Top 2 at Worlds.

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