In the GPF so far, there have been a few cases where the SP combination jump didn't work out; Shcherbakova, Miyahara, Chen come to mind. Two of them had already done a solo jump and were thus screwed, essentially being a jump short. Is it worth doing the combination last, if just for the 10% bonus? 10% on a lutz combo is 1.02-1.08 BV. 10% on a solo flip is 0.53 BV. The difference is 0.49-0.55 BV. Missing a whole 3T or 3Lo is 4.3-4.9 BV. I don't think it's worth it, personally, especially with quads; who would have a 90% success rate with any given quad, besides maybe Hanyu when fit?
Doing combination jumps second in SP: worth it?
- Thread starter lzxnl
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- Joined
- Feb 14, 2018
A note on Shcherbakova: the juniors don’t have a choice. The flip is the mandatory jump this season and has to be performed as the solo jump. The Axel jump also cannot be performed in combination. So for the juniors, it doesn’t matter whether the combination is put in the backhalf or not — they only get one shot at it regardless.
I didn't know that about the flip. Thanks for the info! My comment holds for the others still, and indeed in any scenario when a jump is done twice. It seems better to do it in combination first almost always.
I think it’s a bad idea too (unless you’re a junior, for the reasons Metis stated above). Even if someone is really confident that they’ll land a combination, they can’t 100% guarantee it, so they need room for a backup plan in case things go wrong.
On a separate note: It seems that Satoko does not have a separate 3-3 planned, which may be a problem. There were reports on her doing 3T-3T in practice, so I thought she’d at least try that, since the point loss for doing a double is quite costly. But she only did a 3Lo-2T here, and also in 2016 NHK when a similar incident happened. Even if it was a 3T-3T<, she still would’ve received a point higher. (or maybe she has a backup 3-3, but was too nervous to risk it?)
For example, I remember there was a time when Elizabet Tursynbaeva planned a 3Lz-3T and then a 3Lo. If she made a mistake on the 3Lz she would do a 3S-3T later (rather than the unpopular and more difficult 3Lo-3T).
On a separate note: It seems that Satoko does not have a separate 3-3 planned, which may be a problem. There were reports on her doing 3T-3T in practice, so I thought she’d at least try that, since the point loss for doing a double is quite costly. But she only did a 3Lo-2T here, and also in 2016 NHK when a similar incident happened. Even if it was a 3T-3T<, she still would’ve received a point higher. (or maybe she has a backup 3-3, but was too nervous to risk it?)
For example, I remember there was a time when Elizabet Tursynbaeva planned a 3Lz-3T and then a 3Lo. If she made a mistake on the 3Lz she would do a 3S-3T later (rather than the unpopular and more difficult 3Lo-3T).
Something I've seen happen with novices, where either doubles or triples are allowed:
The skater plans solo 3T and 3S+2T. They pop the solo to a double and then repeat the double in the combination and therefore get no credit for it. Until recently, they would have lost all credit for the perfectly good 3S as well if the combo came later in the program, but that rule changed a couple years ago IIRC.
This could also happen with solo 3Lo and 2Lo at the end of the combo, or with a different first jump at the beginning of the combo.
And it could also happen to senior men if they were planning 3T in the combo followed by solo 4T that comes out as 3T by mistake. Or if they tripled a planned 4T earlier in the program, they'd need to remember to double the planned 3T in the combo later if they want credit for it.
The skater plans solo 3T and 3S+2T. They pop the solo to a double and then repeat the double in the combination and therefore get no credit for it. Until recently, they would have lost all credit for the perfectly good 3S as well if the combo came later in the program, but that rule changed a couple years ago IIRC.
This could also happen with solo 3Lo and 2Lo at the end of the combo, or with a different first jump at the beginning of the combo.
And it could also happen to senior men if they were planning 3T in the combo followed by solo 4T that comes out as 3T by mistake. Or if they tripled a planned 4T earlier in the program, they'd need to remember to double the planned 3T in the combo later if they want credit for it.
Sounds like Javier in Sochi.
If you look at Rika's program, putting 3A-3T first is a good idea. It's paid off as twice, she's had to move the combination second
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2018
I call that The Aliev — WC18, SP: he opened with 4Lz-3T, then popped his intended 4T into a 3T. It’s actually the purest example of this issue in senior men: anything other than a 4T was doom for Aliev. 3T is a Zayak, 2T isn’t sufficient for the single jump. He finished 13th in the short after entering as a medal contender. It was over the moment he didn’t get enough rotations on the 4T, as every other option (save a 5T, I suppose) was going to bring in 0 points. Not the best decision from a risk-reward standpoint.
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- Apr 13, 2017
Yes, it offers a lot of flexibility. Depending on how badly she messed up / how high a score she needs, she can either go for a second 3A+2T and a 3Lz+3T or play it safe with a 2A+3T. I can tell you for a fact that her PCS here would not have been this high if she hadn't gone for the second 3A.
Seeing such a smartly managed jump layout makes me weep for the missed opportunities of a skater like Wakaba.
Whenever I imagine Rika's jump layout next year with 4S and 4T, I always plan it so that she doesn't need any doubles (she would just have enough jumps for that; only needs to repeat 3A and 3Lz stillthat would be so cool; the first senior lady's program in history without doubles, excluding the trivial cases when all jumps were singles), but I feel it does kill some flexibility unless she pops some triples into doubles.
Is that why the men do quad-double when they're not sure now in SPs? Just in case their quad toe fails? How do you even manage the risk of such a program? Not do a 4T and learn a 4S? If you put the 4T first, then messing up the 4Lz becomes extremely painful.
