Have the Gang of Four Hit Their Peak?

I mean have Michelle, Irina, Sasha and Shizuka look anything different than they have for the past several years? Yes, they are using new choreography and maybe adding an extra air turn in a combo. But do you really expect anything special coming from anyone or all of them in the near future - or - is this it, and will it be the same in Torino?

Joe

Michelle: I think her best days are behind her and she's just hanging in there. Still my pick to win US Nats and place at worlds.

Irina: She's coming back strong, and like I said in another thread, I think her best performance may not have occurred yet. However, all this depends on how her health holds up. She mentioned in a GPF interview that she was tired, but would work hard to put out the performance of her life. The favorite, no doubt for worlds. Maybe since it is in Russia the nerves will get her? She mentioned she doesn't like competing in her home country because it makes her nervous.

Shizuka: I'm starting to think more and more that 2004 worlds was the performance of her lifetime. She may rebound from her troubles and put a couple of good ones out there, maybe good enough to medal this year, but I don't know if she'll repeat what happened last year.

I won't comment on Cohen.

Red Dog said:

Michelle: I think her best days are behind her and she's just hanging in there. Still my pick to win US Nats and place at worlds.

Irina: She's coming back strong, and like I said in another thread, I think her best performance may not have occurred yet. However, all this depends on how her health holds up. She mentioned in a GPF interview that she was tired, but would work hard to put out the performance of her life. The favorite, no doubt for worlds. Maybe since it is in Russia the nerves will get her? She mentioned she doesn't like competing in her home country because it makes her nervous.

Shizuka: I'm starting to think more and more that 2004 worlds was the performance of her lifetime. She may rebound from her troubles and put a couple of good ones out there, maybe good enough to medal this year, but I don't know if she'll repeat what happened last year.

I won't comment on Cohen.

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I think Irina's posture and arms are much better now. The extension on her flying camel is much improved. Considering her health situation has set her back so far I'd say she can still improve because as she said, she continues to train hard and plans to peak for future competition this season. She hasn't reached a point that she thinks she can't improve, so that is a good overall sign. She's debuted some new spin positions and spirals already this season, she's working on more. She hopes to be able to reach her past spin speed...lightning fast.

Irina is having the time of her life right now, and winning everything in sight, but has anyone noticed that she doesn't speak about anything beyond Worlds 2005? I think that's because she does have a chronic illness and there is no guarantee that her remission will continue indefinitely. When she says she gets up in the morning and she checks to see that everything is working the way it should, she is not joking. It has to be very hard for her to be so young and have to be concerned for her own health when her mother is so very ill and needing still another kidney transplant. But I think that is what motivates her to skate as well as she possibly can now, while she still can, and I have no doubt that she is the top candidate for 2005 World Champion.

Shizuka Arakawa is not the skater she was last year. She seems tentative and very unsure of herself. She's underrotating many of her jumps and she doesn't seem to relate to her music. Is it that she's reverting to the inconsistent Shizuka of previous years, that she finds being World Champion too big a burden to carry, or is it really just boot problems?

Sasha seems to be on the verge of changing coaches again. Her non-interaction with Robin at Marshall's was very noticeable. I'm not sure still another coach is going to make a difference. Either she will work out her technical problems, or she won't.

Kwan will do as Kwan will do. I expect her to win her 9th and 10th US Championships, finish on the 2005 World podium, and go to Torino, but I don't know if she will finally win that elusive OGM. I suppose she has just as good a chance as anyone else, but maybe she is a lot more emotionally invested than the younger skaters, and that could be her undoing once again. I sure hope that is not the case.

chuckm said:

Kwan will do as Kwan will do. I expect her to win her 9th and 10th US Championships, finish on the 2005 World podium, and go to Torino, but I don't know if she will finally win that elusive OGM. I suppose she has just as good a chance as anyone else, but maybe she is a lot more emotionally invested than the younger skaters, and that could be her undoing once again. I sure hope that is not the case.

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But good thing for her she might have something else invested in her life now that she is less concern about the that elusive OGM. That in turn might help her go all the way out.

Hitting Peaks

Hi there Joesitz - Great question!

I have to say after watching Marshalls that I just don't see it in the cards for Michelle or Sasha to 'magically' master triple-triple combos in time for Torino, and also I can't imagine that I am the only one who feels this way. I am not a 3/3 fiend, but let's be realistic....... having 'smallish' 3/2 combos I don't think cuts it on the international level any longer.

I love both skaters and completely admire their competivness but I kept thinking how underpowered, and in the case of Sasha, how small their jumps were. I know its the beginning of their season after injuries, but I don't feel they have as yet untapped resources to energize their skating - at least at an Olympic level.

Have to agree with Chuckm, Kwan will do as Kwan will do. Nothing this season I believe can compare with Irina's dynamism....... I think this will take her far. I never was a fan of her style, but after watching her whip everyone elses' butts in the Grand Prix and Marshalls, I am a believer in the Slutskaya spring!

Tenorguy

Thanks for starting this thread Joe ... some interesting things to consider.

Irina ... I doubt we will see anything majorly different in her skating. Her jumps have always been spectacular, and she has already landed 3/3's. I don't see any other changes in that area. I see improvement in some of her positions, and she looks happy out there. I'm sure having a serious illness such as she does has given her a much better perspective on everything in her life, including skating.
That can only help her in whatever she chooses to do in life. If her health holds up, I expect her to be major player in Torino.

Shizuka ... I would guess there are a few things going on with her. Number one ... being a world champion is hard! It's much easier fighting to get to the top than it is staying there. I believe she feels the pressure and the expectations, especially with the other Japanese girls right behind her looking to knock her off the podium.
And I'm not so sure that her win last year wasn't partly due to the fact that Irina wasn't competitive at that point, and Michelle and Sasha made mistakes.
She certainly earned the victory, no mistake about that.

Sasha ... God only knows what her problem is. She has the perfect look ... perfect positions ... beautifully put together programs ... and she CAN do the jumps ... just not when it really counts. My feeling is that this problem should have been resolved by now. I kind of get the impression that desperation is starting to set in because noone seems to be able to fix this dilemma.
If she indeed is thinking about yet another coaching change, than I pretty much think you can kiss her chances goodbye.

Michelle ... obviously it's hard for me to separate my heart from my head where she is concerned. She has taken a real beating about the decisions she has made the last few years ... probably some of the criticisms were justified, others I think not. I think after SLC she honestly wasn't sure if she wanted to continue, but then had her incredible Aranjuez season and felt the love for skating that she had before. I think she knows that she couldn't possibly go out full force for 4 years, thus she has sort of nursed herself the past few years to try and give herself one more shot at the Olympics. I don't believe though that she will go to the Olympics with the same mindset as before. She knows the drill and the pitfalls, and I honestly think she has a reasonable shot at it if she can keep in this frame of mind.
She will need to compete in the GP next season, and she will need a 3/3 ... both I feel she is perfectly capable of. I sincerely hope people write her off because that's when she's at her best, when people count her out.
In my mind, if she lands on the podium at all in Torino, she will have accomplished an amazing feat ... and her legend is already secure.

The Four

nymkfan51 -

I love your take on Michelle - she has accomplished many amazing feats and her position in skating is set. I don't write her off, she has demonstrated continually that she posseses the resolve to rise to the occasion and set higher standards, but do you think she has the core - will have the core strength to get on top of a 3/3?

Her jumps are elegant and well-placed, but I don't think her run out on combos is so hot. The second jumps usually appear tacked-on and tuckered out, at least that's what I see. Her technique seems sure, but I wonder about the power in her center and her legs. Do you think she can improve her jumps by 2006?

Tenorguy

I refuse to say any of them are past their prime. That is nearly impossible to gauge. Irina and Michelle have been written off many times, and Shizuka is experiencing her real first go-round with that. Irina is back with competitive fire and Michelle always seems to unleach brilliance when it is least expected. Shizuka is more of a question mark, but I would not be so quick to say that Dortmund was the ultimate Arakawa performance. They all three are tremendously talented and capable, and it is only natural they experience highs and lows in their careers. Perhaps I am just a far too much of an optimist, but it makes it more exciting to believe that the best is yet to come for Kwan, Slutskaya, & Arakawa.
I think Michelle has been making vast improvements in jump technique for the past 1-2 years. For instance, look at her 3t/2l combination this season. The 2l is much higher and flows much better than it did when she performed it in combination with the 3lz in 2002. I also think she may be planning to upgrade that combo to a 3/3. I think she is capable, and I also believe she may just take more risks as the Olympic year approaches.

Tenorguy ... actually I do think she has it in her to do a 3/3. From reports we have heard several that she has been working on. And she has improved her technique ... the biggest problem for her is going to be actually just putting them in her programs ... taking that risk with the possibility of messing up. She seems to expect perfection from herself and obviously adding harder things like 3/3's creates more of a chance for errors. And the longer she goes without trying them, the more scary they seem.
I could be way off base here, but I think she will throw it all out there next year. If you listen closely to her, she realizes that her body isn't what it once was. Years of pounding have taken it's toll, and I firmly believe she would not still be competing if she had tried to do full seasons the past three years. Next year I think she will push herself as much as she can without causing injury, and I see no reason why one 3/3 is beyond her capability. Maybe it will just be the 3T/3T, but I believe she will go for it.

The Four

nymkfan51 - I wish Michelle the absolute best! In my heart, I want that OGM for her, I can't deny that; she means so much to the sport. Let's jope in the pursuit of strengthening her combos, she remains healthy. I would love to see her create the kind of sp/lp that she deserves.

Tenorguy

Tenorguy said:

nymkfan51 - I wish Michelle the absolute best! In my heart, I want that OGM for her, I can't deny that; she means so much to the sport. Let's jope in the pursuit of strengthening her combos, she remains healthy. I would love to see her create the kind of sp/lp that she deserves.

Tenorguy

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You know, the day (if there is one) she finally decides to step it up and really go for it, I'll root for her to win in Turin.

Joesitz said:

I mean have Michelle, Irina, Sasha and Shizuka look anything different than they have for the past several years? Yes, they are using new choreography and maybe adding an extra air turn in a combo. But do you really expect anything special coming from anyone or all of them in the near future - or - is this it, and will it be the same in Torino?

Joe

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Joe, IMHO, Irina will win the World title in 2005, and if she's healthy, she stands a good chance to win at Torino. The judges love her - always have, always will. I recently watched my videotape of the 2002 Olympic long program, and several of the judges awarded Irina 5.9 for technical merit, despite the fact that she did not land any 3/3 combinations, and she fell out of her triple flip. Clearly, they were ready to crown her Olympic champion. If Irina skates cleanly, she's going to win, regardless of what anybody else does. IMHO!

Michelle Kwan has reached a plateau at this point. Granted, it's a majestic, wonderful plateau, but I do not see any improvement or anything new in her skating. Her "Bolero" program still needs a lot of work in order to win high points from the judges. While I expect to see Michelle on the podium at Worlds and at the Olympics, I expect to see her win silver or bronze, not gold.

Sasha Cohen, to me, is a skater who just doesn't have the competitive drive and/or the confidence to go out there and nail her programs. Frankly, I think her jumping technique has declined, not improved, during the past three years. And then there's the issue with her recurring back injury. In my view, it's doubtful that she'll win a medal at Worlds or the Olympics.

Shizuka skated the performance of her life to win Worlds this year, but that may have been the best competitive performance she'll ever turn in. Perhaps she's feeling the weight of the World title, and she's nervous about defending her title. Can she defend her title? Absolutely. Will she - who knows? I think she's a beautiful skater, and I hope she medals, at the very least.

SkateFan4Life said:

Joe, IMHO, Irina will win the World title in 2005, and if she's healthy, she stands a good chance to win at Torino. The judges love her - always have, always will. I recently watched my videotape of the 2002 Olympic long program, and several of the judges awarded Irina 5.9 for technical merit, despite the fact that she did not land any 3/3 combinations, and she fell out of her triple flip. Clearly, they were ready to crown her Olympic champion. If Irina skates cleanly, she's going to win, regardless of what anybody else does. IMHO!

Michelle Kwan has reached a plateau at this point. Granted, it's a majestic, wonderful plateau, but I do not see any improvement or anything new in her skating. Her "Bolero" program still needs a lot of work in order to win high points from the judges. While I expect to see Michelle on the podium at Worlds and at the Olympics, I expect to see her win silver or bronze, not gold.

Sasha Cohen, to me, is a skater who just doesn't have the competitive drive and/or the confidence to go out there and nail her programs. Frankly, I think her jumping technique has declined, not improved, during the past three years. And then there's the issue with her recurring back injury. In my view, it's doubtful that she'll win a medal at Worlds or the Olympics.

Shizuka skated the performance of her life to win Worlds this year, but that may have been the best competitive performance she'll ever turn in. Perhaps she's feeling the weight of the World title, and she's nervous about defending her title. Can she defend her title? Absolutely. Will she - who knows? I think she's a beautiful skater, and I hope she medals, at the very least.

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I agree with your assessments on Shizuka, Michelle, and to some degree Sasha. Maybe saying she doesn't have the competitive drive is going a bit far IMO. I would say more like she feels the outside pressure and buckles under it. But then, how many other skaters does this happen to? Only because she's a "top skater" and supposedly "talented" does she get more heat than anyone else for this. IMO, of course.

As for Irina, I may not like her so much, but she IS good this year. As for the Olympics I'm not too sure as she still has to deal with her condition. But right now, she seems unstoppable.

SkateFan4Life said:

Sasha Cohen, to me, is a skater who just doesn't have the competitive drive and/or the confidence to go out there and nail her programs. Frankly, I think her jumping technique has declined, not improved, during the past three years. And then there's the issue with her recurring back injury. In my view, it's doubtful that she'll win a medal at Worlds or the Olympics.
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I don't think Sasha lacks of competitive drive. But I do she lacks of some type of confidence to some extend. Like she gave me impression she is too much concern as of what her competitors dose. That reflected in her skating.

As for jump technique, I heard she worked with Nick for two jumps, one is double axel the other my source forgot the name. lol. Was she having problem of 2a in Marshalls? I don't remember.

And I totally agree someone up thread said, I do hope ppl written off MK. She always rebound higher when this happened.

Tenorguy; NyMKfan, Bronze G - Regarding Michelle. If you recall the season leading up the SLC, Michelle was competing with triple lutz/double loop and she was making that combo quite easily each time. California fans who watch the practice sessions out there were saying she is working on 3z3r. We MK fans were all excited for the SLC but there was no 3z3r and now we are only getting 3toe2loop. To beat Irina in the next two years she will need two triple combos of some sort. As Skatefan mentioned, the judges love Irina and will place her first on those jumps. PCS are easy to manipulate. Michelle skates rings around Irina but will not get more than a couple of points ahead in the PCS.

RedDog - I think Sasha has the drive to win but I see her as a hyperactive person who puts to much into winning and it shows in her 'rushed' skating. I believe she would land those jumps if she worked on Yoga and just relaxed. They are not difficult for her. And it has nothing to do with all her coaches. I think I noticed a big improvement in the lutz thanks to Robin. It's a question of taking a lesson from Irina who takes her time for each element (boring for me, but big points because she makes all her elements.)

Regarding Shizuka - We all need to have another look. If she could do one Dortmund, she could do a Moscow. Don't forget she won her Quali and placed second in SP before the LP in Dortmund. That's something! One of these gals is not going on the podium. I don't think it will be Shizuka.

Joe

The one thing that all these skaters have on their side - especially, Michelle and Irina - is experience. In figure skating and all things for that matter - experience is "the greatest teacher." There may be some new bright talent on the horizon, and someone may come from out of nowhere and wow us - like Sarah did in the Olympics, but that is the name of the game - "Expect the unexpected." Still the seasoned vets don't give up so easily and they can handle the pressure because of their experience. They may each surprise us yet!!!

The Top 4 Ladies

Shizuka Arakawa seems to be experiencing what Lu Chen did in 1996, Michelle in 1997 and Sarah Hughes in 2003 -- a struggle the year after winning the big one. While equipment is certainly partly to blame, I suspect there is more to it than that. This is the first season Shizuka has skated with a big, red bullseye on her back and the Japanese media tailing her like a pack of unwanted dogs. She seems underconfident and I think this year will be a struggle for her. But by 2006, she very well may have recovered and interesting things could happen in Turin.

Irina is my pick to win Worlds. Not only is it in Moscow, but she looks fit, strong and solid, if still sloppy at times. She is burning through the competition like a house on fire. The judges love her big jumps and great basics. Personally, her mediocre presentation still bothers me. However, Turin is still a question mark due to her chronic condition.

At the end of last season, Sasha seemed on the verge of a breakthrough -- her first Worlds Medal (a silver) and a perfect, winning skate at the Spring Challenge to cap the season. But this year she has gone backwards in a major way. Some of it is certainly health related. But in spite of all her talent, I am beginning to think she doesn't have that intangible x-factor (of which luck certainly plays a part) to strike gold in a major event. A program with showstopping moves and perfect positions but errors is enough to get her on the podium -- but not at the top step. I see more major event medals in her future, but probably not championships. She may surprise us and have a clean, perfect skate in a major -- but it will be a "once in a lifetime" thing, not a harbinger of continued dominance.

Years come and go and Kwan is still here. She continues to greatly limit her competitions during the season and given the implementation of CoP one must question if that is a wise decision. Irina, Shizuka and Sasha have all shown they can adapt to CoP. Can Michelle? For this reason I feel she is the biggest question mark. Because she has been at the top for the longest, CoP is a bigger adjustment for her than any of the other ladies -- she was nurtured under the 6.0 system. Given her long-term ability to stay competitive, one would hope she will be able to adjust. I think she will win U.S. Nationals (which still uses 6.0), but Worlds in Moscow will be the real test. We shall see how CoP judges Kwan.

but Worlds in Moscow will be the real test. We shall see how CoP judges Kwan.

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ITA with this statement. I am very interested to see how Michelle will be scored under COP. I would have to think rather well, but it is somewhat of a mystery. Her spins are not as difficult as Irina's, but the footwork and the jumps are solid. And, I'm sorry, but as for Kwan needing 2 3/3s to beat Irina...I don't think so. Irina has never shown that she can reliably uncork one 3/3. Nor has Shizuka, Sasha, etc. 3/3s can decide a title, but no female champion since Tara has been able to so adeptly master one and bring it to almost every competition. No matter what, I hope she can give 3 solid performances at Worlds and be proud of herself!

I'm not so sure how Arakawa will do for the rest of the season and next year if she competes. I'm quoting a poster by the login of MINAM from FSU at this thread http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=19846

Arakawa looked worn out and pissed off. Said that she was not prepared for the season, not quite in the 'zone' for competing.
And in her interview in the newpapers she says that since she was planning to retire after Dortmund, but won, and she just went on with the schedule, she's not in the state of skating. She hasn't trained much.

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This poster also gave a link to some Japanese interviews Arakawa gave for those who speak Japanese.

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2...0000517-yom-spo


It would explain a lot of her season so far.