Name mixup. I will mark them as JGP
Who will be invited to 2019-20 GP series?
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Name mixup. I will mark them as JGP
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Can we expand the topic of the thread with predictions of actual assignments to gp events? I know it's quite early and we don't even know who will be invited (as a host pick), a lot of things can happen last moment, there might be withdrawals, we don't know who will return and who will get a second event, but I think maybe we can assume and hypothesize? 
so the top 12 can be divided in 4 groups, each of whom will not be at the same event
Ladies:
1. Alina Zagitova, Elizabet Tursynbaeva, Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Rika Kihira, Kaori Sakamoto, Satoko Miyahara
3. Braide Tenell, Sofia Samodurova, Mariah Bell
4. Eunsoo Lim, Gabrielle Daleman, Loena Hendrickx
All of the ladies will get 2 events, so let's assume how it might turn out:
I would assume Zagitova would choose Rostelecom Cup (home soil helps) and possibly Skate America or NHK Trophy (she said she never visited US before and that she loves performing in Japan). Let's say Tursynbaeva goes to IdF and Skate America (that's random) and Medvedeva will go to remaining events.
From there on, I would assume Rika won't visit the same events as Alina and will probably meet with both Evgenia and Elizabet. So I would assume she might choose Skate America and Cup of China. Let's say Kaori chooses NHK and Skate Canada, and Satoko will go to Rostelecom Cup and IdF
Bradie will probably go to SkAm and Gabi to Skate Canada. The rest is randomized.
RosT: Zagitova, Miyahara, Tenell, Daleman
NHK: Zagitova, Sakamoto, Bell, Lim
IdF: Tursynbaeva, Miyahara, Samodurova, Hendrickx
SkAm: Tursynbaeva, Kihira, Tenell, Lim
SkCan: Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Samodurova, Daleman
CoC: Medvedeva, Kihira, Bell, Hendrickx
The other girls who will/might get at least one event (assuming Kaitlyn and Carolina aren't competing):
Wakaba HIGUCHI, Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA, Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA, Yuna SHIRAIWA, Viveca LINDFORS,
Mai MIHARA, Alexia PAGANINI, Alexandra TRUSOVA, Maria SOTSKOVA, Laurine LECAVELIER, Mako YAMASHITA, Mae Berenice MEITE
Yelim KIM, Alena KOSTORNAIA, Ting CUI, Serafima SAKHANOVICH, Anna SHCHERBAKOVA,
Anna TARUSINA, Anastasiia GUBANOVA
I would guess Ting to go to SkAm as well and Meite getting IdF.
What are your thoughts? Did I get something wrong?
Where would you put the rest of the skaters?
What are your assumptions based maybe on preferences of skaters, possible politics etc?
so the top 12 can be divided in 4 groups, each of whom will not be at the same event
Ladies:
1. Alina Zagitova, Elizabet Tursynbaeva, Evgenia Medvedeva
2. Rika Kihira, Kaori Sakamoto, Satoko Miyahara
3. Braide Tenell, Sofia Samodurova, Mariah Bell
4. Eunsoo Lim, Gabrielle Daleman, Loena Hendrickx
All of the ladies will get 2 events, so let's assume how it might turn out:
I would assume Zagitova would choose Rostelecom Cup (home soil helps) and possibly Skate America or NHK Trophy (she said she never visited US before and that she loves performing in Japan). Let's say Tursynbaeva goes to IdF and Skate America (that's random) and Medvedeva will go to remaining events.
From there on, I would assume Rika won't visit the same events as Alina and will probably meet with both Evgenia and Elizabet. So I would assume she might choose Skate America and Cup of China. Let's say Kaori chooses NHK and Skate Canada, and Satoko will go to Rostelecom Cup and IdF
Bradie will probably go to SkAm and Gabi to Skate Canada. The rest is randomized.
RosT: Zagitova, Miyahara, Tenell, Daleman
NHK: Zagitova, Sakamoto, Bell, Lim
IdF: Tursynbaeva, Miyahara, Samodurova, Hendrickx
SkAm: Tursynbaeva, Kihira, Tenell, Lim
SkCan: Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Samodurova, Daleman
CoC: Medvedeva, Kihira, Bell, Hendrickx
The other girls who will/might get at least one event (assuming Kaitlyn and Carolina aren't competing):
Wakaba HIGUCHI, Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA, Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA, Yuna SHIRAIWA, Viveca LINDFORS,
Mai MIHARA, Alexia PAGANINI, Alexandra TRUSOVA, Maria SOTSKOVA, Laurine LECAVELIER, Mako YAMASHITA, Mae Berenice MEITE
Yelim KIM, Alena KOSTORNAIA, Ting CUI, Serafima SAKHANOVICH, Anna SHCHERBAKOVA,
Anna TARUSINA, Anastasiia GUBANOVA
I would guess Ting to go to SkAm as well and Meite getting IdF.
What are your thoughts? Did I get something wrong?
Where would you put the rest of the skaters?
What are your assumptions based maybe on preferences of skaters, possible politics etc?
^^ I think Evgenia would quite like to do CoC, it's the one event she's never won. Also you need to avoid skaters doing back to back events unless they're in the same continent, and one of them is their home event, or effectively so.
Order for this year is SA, SC, IdF, CoC, ROS, NHK, so Sofia Samodurova would have to change, maybe Loena Hendrickx but then does she train in Belgium, it's where you train that would count from a travelling perspective, maybe also Alina, would she really want to do Rostelecom and NHK back to back even though the former is her home event. Everything else seems very plausible, though I have a feeling SkAm will go with 2 Host Picks and Ting Cui will do both her events abroad - the US have a number of skaters just missing out on invites according to my calculations and the more Host Picks the better to be able to accommodate them, plus returning skaters like Karen Chen who's already doing triple-triples from things people have been posting.
Order for this year is SA, SC, IdF, CoC, ROS, NHK, so Sofia Samodurova would have to change, maybe Loena Hendrickx but then does she train in Belgium, it's where you train that would count from a travelling perspective, maybe also Alina, would she really want to do Rostelecom and NHK back to back even though the former is her home event. Everything else seems very plausible, though I have a feeling SkAm will go with 2 Host Picks and Ting Cui will do both her events abroad - the US have a number of skaters just missing out on invites according to my calculations and the more Host Picks the better to be able to accommodate them, plus returning skaters like Karen Chen who's already doing triple-triples from things people have been posting.
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I'm fairly sure it's only 1-3 and 4-6 from Worlds who can't be in the same event. These are the "seeded" skaters. The others guaranteed two spots from Worlds are allowed to skate in the same event.
I can only look at the seeded skaters and host picks for the most part. The rest is just too hard to predict.
As Miller said, the order is SA/SC/IdF/CoC/CoR/NHK. And generally skaters only choose back to back events when it's SA-SC or CoC-NHK, especially for the seeded skaters. So I don't think we'll see any CoR-NHK assignments
For ladies we have:
1. Alina
2. Elizabet
3. Evgenia
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4. Rika K
5. Kaori
6. Satoko
I predict Alina will take either CoR or NHK, but not both, and Evgenia will get the other one. Let's say Alina gets CoR as World Champion. If Alina got NHK instead, I could imagine them going for Elizabet over Evgenia since she trains in Russia with Eteri, but I'm not sure on that. With Alina at CoR, I think NHK would pick Evgenia over Elizabet since she's a bigger name, and also because Elizabet with her quad is a bigger threat to their home skaters. After that, Alina's first could be any of SA, SC or IdF. Elizabet would get two of the first four events, likely nothing back to back unless it was SA and SC. I can see Evgenia getting either SC again, or CoC, but since she's the 3rd seed it may depend on what the others want. I could see something like Alina at IdF and CoR, Evgenia at SC and NHK, and Elizabet at SA and CoC. But I don't think much is certain in this group beyond Alina getting one of CoR and NHK (and probably Evgenia getting the other).
For the next group, I would say NHK will have either Rika or Kaori. I'll go with Kaori as National Champion. Then, I think Satoko is most likely to end up in Russia (I doubt they'd pick Rika). The US fed would probably prefer Satoko or Kaori to Rika for SA, and they were both there last year. So we could see Rika at say, SC and CoC. But again, not much sure in this group, especially since they all come from the same country.
The ladies is actually quite hard to predict because it's so many from the same countries. For other disciplines, I'm confident about several assignments for the seeded skaters, but not so much here.
As for host picks, I'll go by event:
For SA, they'll have Bradie for sure, and Mariah will do other events. Then I expect Ting to be the second American lady, but it is possible that they have her do her events somewhere else and use the spot for someone without any guaranteed events, since only the three US ladies I've mentioned have guaranteed events. Assuming Hanna Harrell stays in juniors, that 2nd spot could be for someone like Megan Wessenberg or Starr Andrews. The 3rd spot will be left TBD.
For SC, they'll have Gabby almost for sure. They could have her elsewhere so that they could give 3 other ladies spots, but I expect them to want at least one well-known women at SC. Then, I'm confident they'll give Aurora Cotop a spot. Normally, I'd be sure they'd have Alaine there as National Champion, but she skated badly at the next three events (yes she was sick at Worlds, but 4CCs and WTT were just as bad), and she's 23 compared to Aurora who's 16. So I think they'll prioritize Aurora over Alaine and either give Alaine the third spot straight up or leave it TBD for summer comps. If it's TBD, Alaine, Alicia Pineault, Larkyn Austman, Veronik Mallet, and maybe others could be in the mix.
For IdF, I expect Laurine, Mae and probably Anna Kuzmenko if she moves up to senior. If she doesn't, maybe someone like Lea Serna gets that 3rd spot.
For CoC, I expect Hongyi Chen to get a spot. I read that Li Xiangning is back to training singles, so she could get a second spot. I'm not sure they'll use all three, but they could.
For CoR, I've already said I see Alina getting a spot. Beyond that, it's a bit hard to know. They have so many ladies to figure out for the GP. But Anna Shcherbakova is the national champion, so I'll go with her for the second spot. They may leave the 3rd open and sort that out later.
For NHK, I said earlier I'd put Kaori there. Then maybe Wakaba for the second spot, since she's only guaranteed one with WS (top 24 SB normally get 2 anyways, but not necessarily WS). And the third spot TBD. If Wakaba isn't here, then I expect to see Mai.
I can only look at the seeded skaters and host picks for the most part. The rest is just too hard to predict.
As Miller said, the order is SA/SC/IdF/CoC/CoR/NHK. And generally skaters only choose back to back events when it's SA-SC or CoC-NHK, especially for the seeded skaters. So I don't think we'll see any CoR-NHK assignments
For ladies we have:
1. Alina
2. Elizabet
3. Evgenia
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4. Rika K
5. Kaori
6. Satoko
I predict Alina will take either CoR or NHK, but not both, and Evgenia will get the other one. Let's say Alina gets CoR as World Champion. If Alina got NHK instead, I could imagine them going for Elizabet over Evgenia since she trains in Russia with Eteri, but I'm not sure on that. With Alina at CoR, I think NHK would pick Evgenia over Elizabet since she's a bigger name, and also because Elizabet with her quad is a bigger threat to their home skaters. After that, Alina's first could be any of SA, SC or IdF. Elizabet would get two of the first four events, likely nothing back to back unless it was SA and SC. I can see Evgenia getting either SC again, or CoC, but since she's the 3rd seed it may depend on what the others want. I could see something like Alina at IdF and CoR, Evgenia at SC and NHK, and Elizabet at SA and CoC. But I don't think much is certain in this group beyond Alina getting one of CoR and NHK (and probably Evgenia getting the other).
For the next group, I would say NHK will have either Rika or Kaori. I'll go with Kaori as National Champion. Then, I think Satoko is most likely to end up in Russia (I doubt they'd pick Rika). The US fed would probably prefer Satoko or Kaori to Rika for SA, and they were both there last year. So we could see Rika at say, SC and CoC. But again, not much sure in this group, especially since they all come from the same country.
The ladies is actually quite hard to predict because it's so many from the same countries. For other disciplines, I'm confident about several assignments for the seeded skaters, but not so much here.
As for host picks, I'll go by event:
For SA, they'll have Bradie for sure, and Mariah will do other events. Then I expect Ting to be the second American lady, but it is possible that they have her do her events somewhere else and use the spot for someone without any guaranteed events, since only the three US ladies I've mentioned have guaranteed events. Assuming Hanna Harrell stays in juniors, that 2nd spot could be for someone like Megan Wessenberg or Starr Andrews. The 3rd spot will be left TBD.
For SC, they'll have Gabby almost for sure. They could have her elsewhere so that they could give 3 other ladies spots, but I expect them to want at least one well-known women at SC. Then, I'm confident they'll give Aurora Cotop a spot. Normally, I'd be sure they'd have Alaine there as National Champion, but she skated badly at the next three events (yes she was sick at Worlds, but 4CCs and WTT were just as bad), and she's 23 compared to Aurora who's 16. So I think they'll prioritize Aurora over Alaine and either give Alaine the third spot straight up or leave it TBD for summer comps. If it's TBD, Alaine, Alicia Pineault, Larkyn Austman, Veronik Mallet, and maybe others could be in the mix.
For IdF, I expect Laurine, Mae and probably Anna Kuzmenko if she moves up to senior. If she doesn't, maybe someone like Lea Serna gets that 3rd spot.
For CoC, I expect Hongyi Chen to get a spot. I read that Li Xiangning is back to training singles, so she could get a second spot. I'm not sure they'll use all three, but they could.
For CoR, I've already said I see Alina getting a spot. Beyond that, it's a bit hard to know. They have so many ladies to figure out for the GP. But Anna Shcherbakova is the national champion, so I'll go with her for the second spot. They may leave the 3rd open and sort that out later.
For NHK, I said earlier I'd put Kaori there. Then maybe Wakaba for the second spot, since she's only guaranteed one with WS (top 24 SB normally get 2 anyways, but not necessarily WS). And the third spot TBD. If Wakaba isn't here, then I expect to see Mai.
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Shcherbakova, Kostornaya and Trusova are all getting 2 spots, right?
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It’s not guaranteed but I am sure RusFed will do everything they can to make it happen. Worst case scenario they will have to use their host picks for 1-2 of them.
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You're correct about this part, but the top 6 skaters from worlds also actually get to pick which GP events they go to (other than numbers 3 and 6 who are stuck with whatever the other two above them didn't pick). So for example, Alina gets to pick where she goes, Elizabet picks from whats left, and then Evgenia gets the two that are left. Same thing with Rika, Kaori and Satoko. Because of this, I think Alina will choose CoR (even if she doesn't want it, the fed will probably push her to choose it), and then maybe IdF (NHK and CoC are only a week apart from CoR, and SA/SC are really far and would cause a lot of jet lag). Rika will probablly choose NHK because she gets to choose 1st out of the Japanese girls, and the federation probably agrees with this since she was such a big star this season and has the biggest scoring potential. As for the others, I have no idea what they'll choose. It's too bad Lilbet can't go to CoR since she trains there, that would have been very convenient for her.
Provided the athletes in #2 & #3 or #5 & #6 do not have a host spot and/or are not excluded from a host spot by their host federation (the latter of which can happen if a country doesn't want to pit their #2 against their #1, for example, or wants to reserve host spots for athletes without 2 guaranteed berths). Athletes with host spots would be prioritized even before the 1st place finisher states his/her/their wishes. Also, I'm not 100% clear on whether athletes' wishes are generally followed for the invites of athletes ranked #4-6. I think the athletes are generally asked where they want to go, but I've not heard that federations are as big on prioritizing those athletes' wishes as they are with #1-3. It's not likely to matter in the ladies' event.
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I doubt that Sotskova and Gubanova would get even one spot. Despite that they have guaranteed spot - there are too many ladies with guaranteed spots for Russia. It's not beneficial for Rusfed to have so many 1-spot ladies in GP - so most likely they won't submit some of them - to make more space for potential 2-spots participants. And the most likely candidates for dropping out are those with less SB score among them.
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As Ice Dance said, host picks come before the seeded skaters. So it's entirely up to the Japanese federation which of their ladies gets NHK - if they want their National champion, it doesn't matter what Rika wants.
And there's plenty of discussions and negotiations between the federations for spots, so it's not as simple as the top skaters just pick what they want. I remember top seeded skaters express their preferences before the selection publicly and not end up with those events. IIRC, V/M said something about wanting to go to Russia but it probably wouldn't happen in 2017 (and it didn't, even though there was no Russian team in their seed bracket).
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For those three to get two spots each, either Liza (and every other Russian lady except the 3 from Worlds) get only one spot, or the federation has to not submit some girls with guaranteed spots. Just using the host picks wouldn't be enough.
If everyone gets their guaranteed spots, that leaves only 3 more spots for Russian ladies, so one of Liza, Sasha, Anna S and Alena only get 1 spot. Which is why I'm sure someone won't be submitted (if I had to guess, Serafima and Maria).
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For pairs we have:
1. Sui/Han
2. Tarasova/Morozov
3. Zabiiako/Enbert
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4. Peng/Jin
5. James/Cipres
6. Boikova/Kozlovskii
The three totally obvious ones to me are S/H getting CoC, T/M getting CoR and J/C getting IdF. S/H would likely get NHK as their second event, since it works geographically, it's not back to back, and they're the World Champs. Skaters tend to like Japan and NHK tends to have a lot of the WCs every year. That leaves SA, SC and IdF. Z/E could do the SA/SC back to back, but I think it's more likely that they would get SA and IdF, leaving SC for T/M. That would also avoid T/M going up against J/C at home. The Russian fed would likely avoid Z/E having to do Canada/France back to back.
In the 4-6, all three teams are from host countries, but J/C are the only ones I'm sure will get their home event. I'm sure Russia wouldn't want J/C, so their 2nd event would be either SA or NHK. My only hesitation with putting P/J in for CoC is that I suspect they'll have Yu/Zhang there if they're ready to compete, and I'm not sure they'd want their top three pairs all there (they didn't do that in 2017-18). I'd guess they'll take them though, since in 2017 S/H and Y/Z came 4th at Worlds, and both were at CoC 2017. And if that does happen, then B/K should get CoR, since it won't be J/C and it would be a back to back for P/J (and not at all close together). Then there are a few possibilities for the final spots. I'll say P/J get NHK, since they're the highest seed and it's not too much travel (but I could see it going to J/C as well). Then J/C at SA and B/K at SC.
This would give us:
SA: Z/E, J/C
SC: T/M, B/K
IdF: Z/E, J/C
CoC: S/H, P/J
CoR: T/M, B/K
NHK: S/H, P/J
For host picks:
For SA, they'll have Cain/Leduc. Maybe Denney/Frazier, since they were 2nd at Nats (but this could be someone else like K/O or SK/K). Then a TBD, which will have plenty of options depending on who picks up non-guaranteed spots (teams like Calalang/Johnson, Lu/Mitrofanov, Feng/Nyman, etc.).
For SC, they'll have Moore-Towers/Marinaro for sure. Then likely Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau, if they think I/B will be ready for it. Third spot could be a 2nd spot for Walsh/Michaud, or a spot for a team like Ruest/Wolfe, Matte/Ferland or Brasseur/Bardei. This may be left TBD to see who gets non-guaranteed spots, and look at summer results.
For IdF, they'll have J/C and Hamon/Strekalin if they go senior. I'm not sure it there are any other teams who could get a spot.
For CoC, I put S/H and P/J there earlier. Then it could be Y/Z. But if Y/Z have two other events (comeback rule) or they go with B/K instead of P/J, we could see Tang/Yang or maybe Wang/Wang get the 3rd spot.
For CoR, I put T/M and B/K there. I'd guess they'll leave the third spot open for now, but I also think they might want the WJ champs there. If P/J end up at COR instead of B/K, then I think Mishina/Galiamov are there for sure. Otherwise it could be a 2nd spot for a team like Efimova/Korovin, or a first spot for a team like Kudriavsteva/Spiridonov or Poluianova/Sopot. I'm assuming Stolbova/Novoselov won't be competing since I haven't heard about him being released yet.
For NHK, they'll have Miura/Ichihashi if they're going senior, and I think that's it since Suzaki/Kihara split.
1. Sui/Han
2. Tarasova/Morozov
3. Zabiiako/Enbert
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4. Peng/Jin
5. James/Cipres
6. Boikova/Kozlovskii
The three totally obvious ones to me are S/H getting CoC, T/M getting CoR and J/C getting IdF. S/H would likely get NHK as their second event, since it works geographically, it's not back to back, and they're the World Champs. Skaters tend to like Japan and NHK tends to have a lot of the WCs every year. That leaves SA, SC and IdF. Z/E could do the SA/SC back to back, but I think it's more likely that they would get SA and IdF, leaving SC for T/M. That would also avoid T/M going up against J/C at home. The Russian fed would likely avoid Z/E having to do Canada/France back to back.
In the 4-6, all three teams are from host countries, but J/C are the only ones I'm sure will get their home event. I'm sure Russia wouldn't want J/C, so their 2nd event would be either SA or NHK. My only hesitation with putting P/J in for CoC is that I suspect they'll have Yu/Zhang there if they're ready to compete, and I'm not sure they'd want their top three pairs all there (they didn't do that in 2017-18). I'd guess they'll take them though, since in 2017 S/H and Y/Z came 4th at Worlds, and both were at CoC 2017. And if that does happen, then B/K should get CoR, since it won't be J/C and it would be a back to back for P/J (and not at all close together). Then there are a few possibilities for the final spots. I'll say P/J get NHK, since they're the highest seed and it's not too much travel (but I could see it going to J/C as well). Then J/C at SA and B/K at SC.
This would give us:
SA: Z/E, J/C
SC: T/M, B/K
IdF: Z/E, J/C
CoC: S/H, P/J
CoR: T/M, B/K
NHK: S/H, P/J
For host picks:
For SA, they'll have Cain/Leduc. Maybe Denney/Frazier, since they were 2nd at Nats (but this could be someone else like K/O or SK/K). Then a TBD, which will have plenty of options depending on who picks up non-guaranteed spots (teams like Calalang/Johnson, Lu/Mitrofanov, Feng/Nyman, etc.).
For SC, they'll have Moore-Towers/Marinaro for sure. Then likely Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau, if they think I/B will be ready for it. Third spot could be a 2nd spot for Walsh/Michaud, or a spot for a team like Ruest/Wolfe, Matte/Ferland or Brasseur/Bardei. This may be left TBD to see who gets non-guaranteed spots, and look at summer results.
For IdF, they'll have J/C and Hamon/Strekalin if they go senior. I'm not sure it there are any other teams who could get a spot.
For CoC, I put S/H and P/J there earlier. Then it could be Y/Z. But if Y/Z have two other events (comeback rule) or they go with B/K instead of P/J, we could see Tang/Yang or maybe Wang/Wang get the 3rd spot.
For CoR, I put T/M and B/K there. I'd guess they'll leave the third spot open for now, but I also think they might want the WJ champs there. If P/J end up at COR instead of B/K, then I think Mishina/Galiamov are there for sure. Otherwise it could be a 2nd spot for a team like Efimova/Korovin, or a first spot for a team like Kudriavsteva/Spiridonov or Poluianova/Sopot. I'm assuming Stolbova/Novoselov won't be competing since I haven't heard about him being released yet.
For NHK, they'll have Miura/Ichihashi if they're going senior, and I think that's it since Suzaki/Kihara split.
Actually, Calalang/Johnson are guaranteed one spot because they are 24th on the SB list. Also, I think Lu/Mitrofanov will be 24th in the WS after the data recalculation, so they would get a guaranteed berth as well.
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My thoughts for the seeded skaters (i.e., top six in each discipline)
Men
1. Chen - Skate America, obviously. Second event is very hard to predict because he can't pick the other event that fit his schedule last season, because instead of France that's NHK, which will go to Hanyu. So instead his second choice will be dictated by whichever week he feels it best fits his schedule to skip Yale. Somebody should hack his school calendar and figure out what that is.
2. Hanyu - NHK Trophy, obviously. I think that, all things being equal, his second event would Skate Canada International, which he's gone to a number of times but never won; will depend on if Nathan picks that (I normally would say he wouldn't do back-to-back events, but it might make sense for Nathan to just get it out of the way early, and the two events are geographically proximate, and both close to Raf's training facility).
3. Zhou - he gets whatever's left over after the first two. France and Rostelecom would probably be the most hospitable schedule, travel-wise, but a lot depends on what Nathan does.
4. Uno - going first in the second tier, I expect the JSF will try to get him into the same events as Vincent, and there'll likely be one such matchup. If Vincent gets Cup of China or Rostelecom, though, that won't be possible, since other skaters in the same bracket as Shoma will get those events. So I'd guess there'll be one Shoma vs. Vincent (France?) and then the JSF has to chose between, say, having Shoma at NHK for a real home ice spectacular alongside Yuzuru or sending him to one of Nathan's events on a dice roll just to see what happens.
5. Jin - Cup of China, obviously. I don't think there are any obvious preferences for his other event.
6. Kolyada - Rostelecom Cup, obviously. I don't think there are any obvious preferences for his other event.
Ladies
The ladies are in a lot of ways the most difficult to talk about, because the first tier of seeding is two Russian skaters and another skater who has a Russian coach, and the second tier is entirely Japanese, so nationalistic concerns really don't apply at all. And RusFed also has to think about where its skaters go relative to Eteri's big three first-year seniors.
1. Zagitova - I'd normally say both NHK and Rostelecom, the latter as a home event and the former because Japan is fun and she's especially big there. But that would also involve back-to-back events, not ideal, especially since at NHK she's likely facing Rika Kihira and at least one of the aforesaid Eteri juniors.
2. Tursynbaeva - no home event. No real idea how she factors into RusFed and Team Eteri's plans.
3. Medvedeva - might prefer Skate Canada International, if it's available, since it's proximate to her training facility.
4. Kihira - will likely get NHK as the top Japanese lady. I don't have any especially strong sense of where else she might go, beyond that I expect the JSF will probably want her other event to be against Medvedeva (though Tursynbaeva's not exactly super-consistent with the quad either, so in a pinch that would also do).
5. Sakamoto - as discussed above, JSF owns this whole bracket. She has a history at Skate America, so maybe there for old time's sake?
6. Miyahara - she also has a Skate America history, though.
Pairs
1. Sui/Han - Cup of China, of course, and NHK Trophy, because Japan is fun.
2. Tarasova/Morozov - Rostelecom Cup, of course, and Skate Canada International, because RusFed will be putting Zabiyako/Enbert in France so their second event will be Skate America rather than back-to-back.
3. Zabiyako/Enbert - as mentioned above, these two will be sent to France to face James/Cipres on home ice, the bad draw; they'll get Skate America as their first event to avoid back-to-back skates in very disparate areas.
4. Peng/Jin - for China, the big calculation is how they're going to juggle Peng/Jin and the returning Yu/Zhang. Do they have P/J at Cup of China, or Y/Z? I think it's comparatively low-risk to not have them here, because James/Cipres won't choose to face Sui/Han and Boikova/Kozlovski (much as I like them) are not a threat to the champs. So they might send these two to other events and clear the way for a Yu/Zhang silver at home.
5. James/Cipres - France, definitely. These two like to compete in Canada, but since Canada and France are back-to-back, probably not this year. I think the French Fed will want them at Skate America to try to run the table against Zabiyako/Enbert; whether they get that will depend on whether Peng/Jin take SA first, which they well might (for the same reason).
6. Boikova/Kozlovski - Given that Russia has so many pairs teams I debated whether RusFed might depart from standard practice and not have these two at Rostelecom, but since both of the other teams above them are genuine threats to Tarasova/Morozov, I expect they will invoke the hometeam card; second event, whatever else is left over.
Ice dance
1. Papadakis/Cizeron - France and NHK. They've been trying to win NHK for three of the last four seasons, twice having to drop out due to injury, and the one time they did get to go, Tessa and Scott crashed the party. There'll be no one to stop us this time!
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov - Skate Canada and Rostelecom; the latter as a home event, the former because once P/C have made their choices and Hubbell/Donohue take Skate America, the only remaining possibilities are SCI or doing back-to-back with Cup of China.
3. Hubbell/Donohue - Skate America and Cup of China; see above for reasoning.
4. Stepanova/Bukin - with the relative rigidity of ice dance rankings, there are a few different strategies that RusFed could pursue here. Obviously they won't beat P/C, pitting them against S/K is pointless from a nationalistic perspective; H/D would be their best bet to actually take gold, but that would also be uphill (especially at Skate America, for obvious reasons). Do they take the "honourable" route of losing to the reigning World Champs? Go for broke against H/D?
5. Weaver/Poje - Skate Canada International, obviously. No particularly firm ideas as to what their second event would be.
6. Chock/Bates - since it doesn't look like the Shibutanis will be back, I expect these two will do Skate America, and second event will be whatever's left over.
Men
1. Chen - Skate America, obviously. Second event is very hard to predict because he can't pick the other event that fit his schedule last season, because instead of France that's NHK, which will go to Hanyu. So instead his second choice will be dictated by whichever week he feels it best fits his schedule to skip Yale. Somebody should hack his school calendar and figure out what that is.
2. Hanyu - NHK Trophy, obviously. I think that, all things being equal, his second event would Skate Canada International, which he's gone to a number of times but never won; will depend on if Nathan picks that (I normally would say he wouldn't do back-to-back events, but it might make sense for Nathan to just get it out of the way early, and the two events are geographically proximate, and both close to Raf's training facility).
3. Zhou - he gets whatever's left over after the first two. France and Rostelecom would probably be the most hospitable schedule, travel-wise, but a lot depends on what Nathan does.
4. Uno - going first in the second tier, I expect the JSF will try to get him into the same events as Vincent, and there'll likely be one such matchup. If Vincent gets Cup of China or Rostelecom, though, that won't be possible, since other skaters in the same bracket as Shoma will get those events. So I'd guess there'll be one Shoma vs. Vincent (France?) and then the JSF has to chose between, say, having Shoma at NHK for a real home ice spectacular alongside Yuzuru or sending him to one of Nathan's events on a dice roll just to see what happens.
5. Jin - Cup of China, obviously. I don't think there are any obvious preferences for his other event.
6. Kolyada - Rostelecom Cup, obviously. I don't think there are any obvious preferences for his other event.
Ladies
The ladies are in a lot of ways the most difficult to talk about, because the first tier of seeding is two Russian skaters and another skater who has a Russian coach, and the second tier is entirely Japanese, so nationalistic concerns really don't apply at all. And RusFed also has to think about where its skaters go relative to Eteri's big three first-year seniors.
1. Zagitova - I'd normally say both NHK and Rostelecom, the latter as a home event and the former because Japan is fun and she's especially big there. But that would also involve back-to-back events, not ideal, especially since at NHK she's likely facing Rika Kihira and at least one of the aforesaid Eteri juniors.
2. Tursynbaeva - no home event. No real idea how she factors into RusFed and Team Eteri's plans.
3. Medvedeva - might prefer Skate Canada International, if it's available, since it's proximate to her training facility.
4. Kihira - will likely get NHK as the top Japanese lady. I don't have any especially strong sense of where else she might go, beyond that I expect the JSF will probably want her other event to be against Medvedeva (though Tursynbaeva's not exactly super-consistent with the quad either, so in a pinch that would also do).
5. Sakamoto - as discussed above, JSF owns this whole bracket. She has a history at Skate America, so maybe there for old time's sake?
6. Miyahara - she also has a Skate America history, though.
Pairs
1. Sui/Han - Cup of China, of course, and NHK Trophy, because Japan is fun.
2. Tarasova/Morozov - Rostelecom Cup, of course, and Skate Canada International, because RusFed will be putting Zabiyako/Enbert in France so their second event will be Skate America rather than back-to-back.
3. Zabiyako/Enbert - as mentioned above, these two will be sent to France to face James/Cipres on home ice, the bad draw; they'll get Skate America as their first event to avoid back-to-back skates in very disparate areas.
4. Peng/Jin - for China, the big calculation is how they're going to juggle Peng/Jin and the returning Yu/Zhang. Do they have P/J at Cup of China, or Y/Z? I think it's comparatively low-risk to not have them here, because James/Cipres won't choose to face Sui/Han and Boikova/Kozlovski (much as I like them) are not a threat to the champs. So they might send these two to other events and clear the way for a Yu/Zhang silver at home.
5. James/Cipres - France, definitely. These two like to compete in Canada, but since Canada and France are back-to-back, probably not this year. I think the French Fed will want them at Skate America to try to run the table against Zabiyako/Enbert; whether they get that will depend on whether Peng/Jin take SA first, which they well might (for the same reason).
6. Boikova/Kozlovski - Given that Russia has so many pairs teams I debated whether RusFed might depart from standard practice and not have these two at Rostelecom, but since both of the other teams above them are genuine threats to Tarasova/Morozov, I expect they will invoke the hometeam card; second event, whatever else is left over.
Ice dance
1. Papadakis/Cizeron - France and NHK. They've been trying to win NHK for three of the last four seasons, twice having to drop out due to injury, and the one time they did get to go, Tessa and Scott crashed the party. There'll be no one to stop us this time!
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov - Skate Canada and Rostelecom; the latter as a home event, the former because once P/C have made their choices and Hubbell/Donohue take Skate America, the only remaining possibilities are SCI or doing back-to-back with Cup of China.
3. Hubbell/Donohue - Skate America and Cup of China; see above for reasoning.
4. Stepanova/Bukin - with the relative rigidity of ice dance rankings, there are a few different strategies that RusFed could pursue here. Obviously they won't beat P/C, pitting them against S/K is pointless from a nationalistic perspective; H/D would be their best bet to actually take gold, but that would also be uphill (especially at Skate America, for obvious reasons). Do they take the "honourable" route of losing to the reigning World Champs? Go for broke against H/D?
5. Weaver/Poje - Skate Canada International, obviously. No particularly firm ideas as to what their second event would be.
6. Chock/Bates - since it doesn't look like the Shibutanis will be back, I expect these two will do Skate America, and second event will be whatever's left over.
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- Nov 30, 2016
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I know. But they may not get two spots. That was the point. The SA spot could give them a second event if they don't end up with one elsewhere.
I think they may prefer back-to-back at Cup of China rather than flying across the ocean (and head-to-head against Canada's national champions in W&P's backyard). Same as Hubbell & Donohue preferred to do back to back SA and SC this year. Depends, though, probably on whether S&K want the earlier feedback & more time to respond between events.
With Stepanova & Bukin, I think the big question is whether Russia will want both top teams. (Hedging their bets for both and clearing out the rest of the field via control over invitations). It's quite uncommon to invite two top homefield dance teams that are closely ranked. But Russia did invite it's two top-ranked teams during the Olympic season with Bobrova & Soloviev and Stepanova & Bukin, and it is a viable means for trying to get a team into the Final. Plus, then they have less chance of fallout if S&K royally muck up.
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- Nov 30, 2016
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Maybe, although it's not as though Moscow and Chongqing are anywhere near each other (closer than Kelowna/Moscow, but still over 6000 km). That's more than twice as far as Everett to Laval (although maybe not a huge difference in travel time, depending on connecting flights), and last season SA/SC was only a 3 hour time difference, vs 5 for CoC/CoR.
I don't think S/K should worry too much about facing W/P at home. Given where the scores were at by the end of the season, right now it looks like they would win that if both skate well. If they mess up, they could lose to them for sure, but that would be true of whoever is in China as well. Obviously things can change a lot by next season, but I'm not sure that's a reason to not do SC. But they/the fed may feel differently.
SA: Nathan, Mikhail
SC: Yuzuru, Boyang
IdF: Vincent, Shoma
CoC: Yuzuru, Boyang
CoR: Vincent, Mikhail
NHK: Nathan, Shoma
+ Kevin at IdF, Matteo at IdF/CoR.
Tried to account for home countries, training locations, events already won and not having back-to-back competitions. I personally think that NHK would like to have Yuzuru there but I think that Nathan requested the last event in the 2018-19 season.
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- Jan 31, 2019
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Oh, this would make me a sad puppy (I really hope to see ZE at SC) but it is so complicated to position everyone...
Also, the thought of Hanyu at SC freaks me out - it is a small arena, in a small town... it feels like too big ticket item for it. I am taken completely by surprise by this prediction.
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- Mar 3, 2018
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Host countries’ picks are the lone exception to the traditional champion’s right to pick their assignments, so Nathan cannot take NHK over Yuzuru unless Hanyu and the JSF agree.
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