Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020 | Page 4 | Golden Skate

Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
The gap between Kihira's and Trusova's planned BV won't be wide probably. So it will be really a matter of who lands the most things cleanly.
There is a lot of talk about Kihira's consistency but she improved on that since her last junior season. She was a completely different competitor this season and she can improves again. No one is rock solid, not even Trusova. Otherwise she would have won JGPF and Rusnats. Difficult to deliver a planned BV with risky elements.
I won't be suprised if quadless skaters win major titles.
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
The gap between Kihira's and Trusova's planned BV won't bee wide probably. So it will be really a matter of who lands the most things cleanly.
There is a lot of talk about Kihira's consistency but she improved on that since her last junior season. She was a completely different competitor this season and she can improves again. No one is rock solid, not even Trusova. Otherwise she would have won JGPF and Rusnats. Difficult to deliver a planned BV with risky elements.
I won't be suprised if quadless skaters win major titles.

Whole post! Agree! Anyway, next season will be awesome!
 

mrrice

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 9, 2014

I still believe that solid 3/3's in the bonus are the way to get on the podium. If a skater has a beautiful quad and solid 3/3's......Hand them the gold. Med was "quadless" and she had a great year and made the world podium.
 

oatmella

陈巍
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
At Worlds, only Elizabet attempted and landed a quad. So 2/3 of the podium were “quadless”.

Next season, at least Elizabet, Sasha, Anna, and Rika will be including quads in their programs. Not sure if Alina is likely to include 4F, and Evgenia 4S. While it remains to be seen how successful all these quad attempts will be, it appears that quads will be a more significant factor in the ladies field next season.
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
I still believe that solid 3/3's in the bonus are the way to get on the podium. If a skater has a beautiful quad and solid 3/3's......Hand them the gold. Med was "quadless" and she had a great year and made the world podium.

I think mostly about the luck of competition. Favorite or strongest skaters bomb while the ones with less potential scoring are clean or don't see their flaws called by TP (like flutz, UR, etc.). That's how for example Medvedeva made the world podium. Because let's be true, a skater with no 3A/quad, just the usual 7 triples program has no chance against Trusova and Kihira if they are cleans. But since they will probably be clean with those free skate layouts just once or twice in the season (i would like an higher number), other skaters have all their chances.

I agree that one quad + all 3-3s in bonus can be the right layout. Less risk but hight reward even if there is a fall on the quad (if everything else is landed cleanly). That's how Lilbet got that rise. She could have scored 153 at least if she had landed the 3T at worlds. For someone who has 70+ PCS, close to 75, that kind of layout is perfect.

That's why i bet we will see many attempts of quads (UR quads, that won't be called for chosen ones anyway). ISU even gave her blessing by raising the BV of UR quads.
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
I feel like right now is exactly the right time for Rika to pull her quad. Given hers are still UR, this new regulation will 100% give her more incentive to go for it.
If she's lucky and not called - good for her, if she isn't as lucky - she'll still have a good advantage.
But who knows, maybe she'll manage to rotate it by the time next season comes, I think she's capable of it.

When calculating her possible score with UR quad and -1 goe for it, I still got around 164, which is incredible.
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
With the new regulation a lot of skaters will get a motivation to go for quads and even quads in combination but they may not be enough, as there is also a chance for those without quads to throw extremely difficult combos and extremely difficult entry jumps in their programs + score very high on components and beat the quad skaters. It'll will be interesting to see how things turn out next season.
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
In national competitions maybe we will see skaters without quads beat clean quadsters. I mean 79 PCS and +5GOE on almost everything can do that. When you have the right person to push you it's possible...
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
It can happen at the worlds, and it did happen before when a technically superior skater lost in overall score. When you have a right coach it can happen...
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
It can happen at the worlds, and it did happen before when a technically superior skater lost in overall score. When you have a right coach it can happen...

Not when that technically superior skater was clean.
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
If technically superior skater is clean and is higher on components, of course, that's a winner but technically superior although clean can be way down on components, so overall score can end up in favor of quadless skater.
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
In national competitions maybe we will see skaters without quads beat clean quadsters. I mean 79 PCS and +5GOE on almost everything can do that. When you have the right person to push you it's possible...

I think skaters like Jason Brown show how powerful great SS and performance can be even in international competition. But, he also shows their limits . He frequently beats skaters with multiple quads. He doesn't beat skaters with multiple well executed quads and good (if not excellent )components.

Rika Kihira has the technical goods and the PCS potential. Sasha has amazing.BV. But, they can be beaten if they are messy/ their programs aren't good by cleaner skaters even internationally.
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
If technically superior skater is clean and is higher on components, of course, that's a winner but technically superior although clean can be way down on components, so overall score can end up in favor of quadless skater.

True. But i don't think that Kihira,Trusova or even Scherbakova (whom i'm mainly talking about) will get 65 PCS while others top skaters 75+.
Now, if Ayaka Hosoda lands a 4T + two 3A at NHK but ends off podium i won't be surprised because she can get 60 PCS.
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
Zagitova and Sakamoto can without a quad if they skate their sp and fs both clean and if their programs are heaped with difficult combo jumps and entries + scoring higher on comps but it’s a hypothesis, of course. It’s a wild guess at this stage, who of those favorites will come on top next season as they all have equal chances...
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
I know I already did it 3 times or so, but once more the math on why Rika won't dominate unless quadsters lose their quads. ...

Your numbers aren't accurate.

Moriel's numbers are not wrong, it's just that Moriel is taking a different approach to using statistics to make predictions. Moriel is incorporating probabilities of success in order to come up with a notion of "expected base value" of a program. This will be different from just adding up the listed base values from a skater's jump card.

Still, as much as I love numbers, I wouldn't bet the farm. :) All the numbers in the world are not going to make someone skate better or worse at a particular competition.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
1.Rika
2.Lilbet
3.Anna S
4.Bradie T
5.Kaori S.
6.Sasha T.

So hard it seems like Russia has again all sorts of issues with puberty. Alina, Sasha even Anna we just don't know if the jumps will hold up. Looks like Sofia, Maria S, are an afterthought. Alina and Evgenia will have trouble making the team if the Eteri girls can land their 3A's and quads. Ditto for Liza T. I would give some credence that Alina, Evgenia or Liza - one would make the team but entirely possibly none. I wonder if Russia has a 13 or about to turn 14 year oldl who would be 15 or 16 for Bejing to challenge Lilbet and Rika?
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
1.Rika
2.Lilbet
3.Anna S
4.Bradie T
5.Kaori S.
6.Sasha T.

So hard it seems like Russia has again all sorts of issues with puberty. Alina, Sasha even Anna we just don't know if the jumps will hold up. Looks like Sofia, Maria S, are an afterthought. Alina and Evgenia will have trouble making the team if the Eteri girls can land their 3A's and quads. Ditto for Liza T. I would give some credence that Alina, Evgenia or Liza - one would make the team but entirely possibly none. I wonder if Russia has a 13 or about to turn 14 year oldl who would be 15 or 16 for Bejing to challenge Lilbet and Rika?

Rika is 16, the same age as Alina, so I don't really get your post why only Russian skaters seem to have puberty problems:)
 
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