2019-20 Japanese ladies' figure skating

Joekaz said:

Nationals are more important. I hope she didn't peak too early. It seems most of the Japanese were clearly aiming for nationals over GP, so Kihara will need to be her best there.

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She doesn't need Nationals. She is 100% lock for the National Team.

Even if Rika was to skip nationals, Japan would be crazy not to name her for the world team...
They gotta give her a pass and let her rest and heal.

zanadude said:

She doesn't need Nationals. She is 100% lock for the National Team.

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That's true. But being national champion is very prestigious, especially in Japan. Especially since she didn't win it last year.

Joekaz said:

That's true. But being national champion is very prestigious, especially in Japan. Especially since she didn't win it last year.

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It's also worth zero points in the international rankings. Kaori Sakamoto is the defending national champion; is she held in higher esteem than Kihira?

Unlike Hanyu, she does technically still have to show up at Nationals to be selected to the team, but she could literally do nothing but stand on the ice for her short program and fulfull that requirement.

zanadude said:

It's also worth zero points in the international rankings. Kaori Sakamoto is the defending national champion; is she held in higher esteem than Kihira?

Unlike Hanyu, she does technically still have to show up at Nationals to be selected to the team, but she could literally do nothing but stand on the ice for her short program and fulfull that requirement.

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Kihira is clearly recognized as Japans #1. But Sakamoto is held in much greater esteem than she was in Japan before because she won it. Nationals are HUGE in Japan. Especially this year with the Russians dominating the international comps.Unlike most countries skating is a huge sport in Japan.

Rika seems to be a bit of a nervy competitor. It could have been her change with trusova making costly errors

Joekaz said:

Kihira is clearly recognized as Japans #1. But Sakamoto is held in much greater esteem than she was in Japan before because she won it. Nationals are HUGE in Japan.

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I bolded the truly important words there. Nationals are huge in Japan. Just as every country's national competition is huge in that country. GPF/WC are huge throughout the world. To say that a national title is more important than a world title is absurd.

zanadude said:

I bolded the truly important words there. Nationals are huge in Japan. Just as every country's national competition is huge in that country. GPF/WC are huge throughout the world. To say that a national title is more important than a world title is absurd.

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I didn't say it was more important than WC. I said a national title in Japan was more important to the Japanese skaters than winning the GPF is. That is absolutely true, especially if you haven't won it before. I didnt say anything about WC. I don't know where you got that impression from. I was simply responding to comments that implied that nationals are only important because it qualifies you for WC. That is of course also absurd. Its important because of the the prestige of winning it and qualifying for WC. I hope you better understand now.

halulupu said:

Rika seems to be a bit of a nervy competitor. It could have been her change with trusova making costly errors

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Rikas biggest problem is she needs 3 Russians to make errors for her to win.

Joekaz said:

I didn't say it was more important than WC. I said a national title in Japan was more important to the Japanese skaters than winning the GPF is. That is absolutely true, especially if you haven't won it before. I didnt say anything about WC. I don't know where you got that impression from.

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Personally, I equate the Grand Prix Finals title with the WC. It's "another" world title, because the best skaters in the world compete in a tournament to determine the very best skaters in the world, and then they compete to determine the best of them all. In reality, it's a step down from the World Championships, but still the second most important thing you can win in a non-Olympic season.

I am actually in Japan, and the media attention that Rika got after winning last year's grand prix finals dwarfed that which Sakamoto got for winning Nationals. Kihira instantly vaulted herself into the position of #2 skater in Japan, behind only Yuzuru Hanyu. Sakamoto is still just one of the next tier of female skaters below Kihira. That won't change even if Sakamoto repeats as National Champion.

As I said, Nationals are important, Grand Prix Finals are more important. I hope you better understand now.

halulupu said:

Rika seems to be a bit of a nervy competitor. It could have been her change with trusova making costly errors

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She‘s been competing on an injury for months now. Even if the 4S and 3A hurt less, that’s still ultra-c elements, I can’t imagine they’re exactly good on an already weakened body from an injury. That‘s disaster waiting to happen. She needs to rest, skip a few competitions (don‘t care which ones) and then come back healthy for Worlds. GPs, even GPF, aren‘t as important in a non-Olympic season to ruin your health for them. I wish her all the best. If she could sneak in for a medal, that would be an amazing story but I‘m not sure how likely it is. Anyway, hoping she skates cleanly today. She definitely has it in her and has actually been remarkably consistent this season.

halulupu said:

Rika seems to be a bit of a nervy competitor. It could have been her change with trusova making costly errors

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I would have agreed with you a couple of years ago but I think we have seen Rika grow a huge amount over the last few seasons in her competition mindset. I would not call her a nervy competitor. However, I also don't think performance was caused by injury (although I hope she takes time off after the GPF and rests for worlds). Her run-through earlier in the day was perfectly clean. I think she just had a really bad day. She might be coping with jet lag (she was competing at about 3am Japanese time) or perhaps she was just not feeling great. All competitors have the occasional bad day. Hopefully, she will do better in the FS.

I think taking time off to rest before World's is very smart because if she comes back with a fully healed tendon then she will be able to compete a SP with a 3Lz which will increase her scoring potential to 83.5/84 in the short and a free skate with both 4S and her 3Lz will increase she scoring potential to over 170 in the free. It would make her a lot more competitive with Trusova.

Fluture said:

She‘s been competing on an injury for months now. Even if the 4S and 3A hurt less, that’s still ultra-c elements, I can’t imagine they’re exactly good on an already weakened body from an injury. That‘s disaster waiting to happen. She needs to rest, skip a few competitions (don‘t care which ones) and then come back healthy for Worlds.

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Well, she's certainly not skipping Nationals in two weeks time. Otherwise there's no Worlds to go to.

zanadude said:

Well, she's certainly not skipping Nationals in two weeks time. Otherwise there's no Worlds to go to.

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I don‘t get that. She‘s the only Japanese female skater who made the final. She‘s the only one who has shown to reliably land a 3A and challenge the Russians. Who are the other contenders for the team? Kaori, Satoko and Wakaba. Alright, I‘m a Satoko and Wakaba fan but let’s be honest.. Satoko may be incredibly consistent but her small jumps just don‘t let her challenge for the golds. Wakaba has got her 3A back, it seems, but her other performances the last two seasons just weren‘t on par with Rika. Kaori‘s very good but had some problems this season as well and didn‘t even come close to making the final. Whereas Rika‘s skated clean programs all season and won major medals, even without a lutz. I‘d say Rika has earned her spot on the team fair and square, whether she competes at Nats or not. Having her compete injured there again would only make things worse. One has to think a bit strategic here too. Worlds are the most important. Japanese fed wants someone who can challenge for the podium/gold? Let Rika rest and get back her lutz. It‘s two years till the OG. Competing injured for months now is just unnecessarily risky.

Fluture said:

I don‘t get that.

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The only exception for missing Nationals and being chosen to the National team is for people that have finished on the podium at a prior Senior World Championships and cannot compete at Nationals for some unavoidable reason. Even if she had the latter, she has not the former.

Fluture said:

I‘d say Rika has earned her spot on the team fair and square, whether she competes at Nats or not.

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As explained, she has not yet earned her spot by the rules that everyone must follow.

I don't make the rules, I just know them.

zanadude said:

Personally, I equate the Grand Prix Finals title with the WC. It's "another" world title, because the best skaters in the world compete in a tournament to determine the very best skaters in the world, and then they compete to determine the best of them all. In reality, it's a step down from the World Championships, but still the second most important thing you can win in a non-Olympic season.

I am actually in Japan, and the media attention that Rika got after winning last year's grand prix finals dwarfed that which Sakamoto got for winning Nationals. Kihira instantly vaulted herself into the position of #2 skater in Japan, behind only Yuzuru Hanyu. Sakamoto is still just one of the next tier of female skaters below Kihira. That won't change even if Sakamoto repeats as National Champion.

As I said, Nationals are important, Grand Prix Finals are more important. I hope you better understand now.

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Kihira is more popular because she was clearly the best skater all year and obviously has the highest scoring potential. She also had a much bigger reputation coming out of juniors. The fans realize she didn't do her best at Nationals. I've been to Japan several times, my wife if from Japan and we watch skating on Japanese TV, (even though Nationals is the only event they show live). The skaters, the fans and the tv networks all consider Nationals more important than GPF. I guess we agree to disagree. We seem to be wasting alot of time basically because WE disagree over the importance of GPF vs Nats.

Kihira is more popular because she was clearly the best skater all year and obviously has the highest scoring potential. She also had a much bigger reputation coming out of juniors. The fans realize she didn't do her best at Nationals. I've been to Japan several times, my wife if from Japan and we watch skating on Japanese TV, (even though Nationals is the only event they show live). The skaters, the fans and the tv networks all consider Nationals more important than GPF. I guess we agree to disagree. We seem to be wasting alot of time basically because WE disagree over the importance of GPF vs Nats.

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I have never heard anyone say that Nationals is more important than Grand Prix Final until now, but last year at Nationals was a classic example of Rika and Mai being held to a higher standard in scoring. Who else than Rika landed two triple axels one in combination with a triple toe combined with proper triple lutz edge jumps at Nationals, won every Grand Prix event including the Final, and then received a lot of PCS deflation relative to Satoko and Kaori at their own Nationals? Kaori skated very well at Nationals and Satoko skated well too, but the deciding factor was PCS not tech, even more so with Mai, and the fact that Kaori's triple lutz edge and or ur was overlooked in the LP. Rika received PCS deflation at home in the LP for a more impressive tech performance than she had in the Grand Prix Final when at any other Nationals she woud have received a PCS increase instead. The total difference in points across both the SP and LP was ony about 4 points, almost all in higher PCS for Kaori. The overlooked e and or ur call on Kaori's triple lutz which was mentioned in a number of comments is one important factor. Plus, Rika went from having a 4 point advantage in the LP compared to Kaori's best PCS score during the Grand Prix season to having over a 1 point lower score at Nationals, which is a net deflation in PCS for Rika of 5 points. In total, the PCS discrepancy and overlooked tech call add up to at least double the overall difference of 4 points.

Quid pro quos are a common way to make scoring arrangements and in this case one skater from Hamada's team Satoko over Rika received preferential scoring, while Kaori received preferential scoring from the other coaches' team over Mai. In each case, seniority took preference regardless. In my opinion, the final result should have been 1. Rika 2. Kaori 2. Mai and 4. Satoko.

Anyway, I hope Rika skates great in the long program and that she gets a chance to rest and recover after the Grand Prix Final since she can't wish her injury away. I also hope that Kaori and Satoko skate well and that Mai can get healthy and return to competition next season.

zanadude said:

The only exception for missing Nationals and being chosen to the National team is for people that have finished on the podium at a prior Senior World Championships and cannot compete at Nationals for some unavoidable reason. Even if she had the latter, she has not the former.


As explained, she has not yet earned her spot by the rules that everyone must follow.

I don't make the rules, I just know them.

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That is exactly the problem Elizaveta Tuktamysheva ran into when she couldn't go to Russian Nationals because of Pneumonia, she had no "free pass" despite earning herself Bronze at the 18/19 GPF. And she did not even make the World team in 2018.

gotoschool said:

I have never heard anyone say that Nationals is more important than Grand Prix Final until now, but last year at Nationals was a classic example of Rika and Mai being held to a higher standard in scoring. Who else than Rika landed two triple axels one in combination with a triple toe combined with proper triple lutz edge jumps at Nationals, won every Grand Prix event including the Final, and then received a lot of PCS deflation relative to Satoko and Kaori at their own Nationals? Kaori skated very well at Nationals and Satoko skated well too, but the deciding factor was mainly PCS even more so with Mai, and the fact that Kaori's triple lutz edge and or ur was overlooked in the LP when Rika had received higher PCS in ther LP at the Grand Prix Final going into Nationals. Quid pro quos are a common way to make scoring arrangements and in this case one skater from Hamada's team Satoko over Rika recieved preferential scoring, while Kaori received preferential scoring from the other coaches' team over Mai. In each case, seniority took preference regardless. In my opinion, the final result should have been 1. Rika 2. Kaori 2. Mai and 4. Satoko.

Anyway, I hope Rika skates great in the long program and that she gets a chance to rest and recover after the Grand Prix Final since she can't wish her injury away. I also hope that Kaori and Satoko skate well and that Mai can get healthy and return to competition next season.

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Actually the deciding factor last year was that Rika blew the the short program. Lol

Joekaz said:

Actually the deciding factor last year was that Rika blew the the short program. Lol

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Rika absolutely deserved to win the FS but Kaori won overall with two consistent programs. There was more to the event than the FS and I feel that was overlooked in the post you quoted.