2019-20 U.S. Pairs Figure Skating
- Thread starter skylark
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^^^ We'll know that answer in a month or so. I'm not a fan of theirs, but they need to re examine their priorities. If competitive skating something they both still want to do, they have to refocus somehow. They've never been very consistent and they have to learn how to compete at their best quickly. Time is not on their side anymore.
U.S. Pairs has reached an exciting moment for the first time in like over a decade: Cain-Gribble/LeDuc, Knierims, Denney/Frazier, Kayne/O'Shea and Calalang/Johnson have all passed 190 points internationally this season and CG/L and Knierims have all managed to pass 200 points. But sadly for the Knierims, they are on a downward curve whereas the other 4 teams are on a generally upward curve. Attending Golden Spin was a risk that they decided not to take, but their rivals did and it really paid off: Both CG/L and K/O got some mojo back. It will be interesting to see at Nationals how the USFSA considers BOW among the top 4 teams alongside their performances at Nationals. C/J are my faves right now, but I don't think they will get to Worlds unless they blow everyone's minds at Nationals. The other 4 teams have more experience and obtained higher scores this past season.
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I totally agree that our pairs this year are exciting and the best group we’ve had for a long time. While I agree with you that Knierims struggled big time at their last event I’m still hoping it was an aberration and not a downward curve. I know I’m biased because they’ve long been my favorites, but I think these may be the best programs they’ve ever had and their elements are better than ever, minus the jumps of course. Their mental game though seems to be the real issue. Fingers crossed that they get their heads on straight for Nationals. C&J are also big favorites of mine and I’m excited to see their progress over the next few years. I could see them on the podium at Nationals this year if one or two of the other top teams falter. I think CG & LeDuc and Denny and Frazier have the edge right now for the top two spots because of their recent successes. If both teams went clean along with the Knierims I think it would be the most exciting event imaginable! WOW! I can’t even predict the order they would finish, but my wish would be for Knierims to be first. I think Kanye & O’ Shea fall into the fourth spot but could land anywhere on the podium if any of the top three falter.
I agree with your post. The Knierims' problem is mental and I also think they have the highest scoring potential of all teams. I was surprised by K/O at Golden Spin because they muddled thru their previous events but suddenly they are in the hunt [Darn. I hate that there were no videos from Golden Spin!]. I really would like my favorite team C/J to hit their SBS jumps and compete alongside the other 4 teams at Nationals. They are new and have more room to grow w/ huge potential.
I hope they fix whatever's ailing them. Last season's program was spectacular. Too bad about the injury.
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I think the pairs events at Nationals will be either thrilling or excruciating or both, depending on what sort of comp you enjoy. I like unpredictable, and our top pairs are so close and each so magnetic in their own way. I'm loving that several of our pairs are part of the international conversation this year. My favorites are Cain-Gribble/ LeDuc, and I feel that they're creating a pairs style that is so distinctive and a brand-new -- or maybe Retro -- pairs dynamic. The national and international judges seem to appreciate their efforts, too. It's surprising that many U.S. fans undervalue them. For instance, someone said on a comp thread this fall that C-G/L's twist was "subpar." And yet, their twist is usually level 3; it usually scores between 1.60 and upwards of 1.90 in GOE, which is only a half point or so behind what the Knierims earn for theirs. It seems there may be some sort of blindness going on. C-G/L often more than make up the difference (not just compared to the Knierims, but to other countries' pairs as well) with their combination jump, spins and step sequences, or some mash-up of the three. Also, their lifts are beautiful and getting very good levels and GOEs, especially their Axel Lift. Their new Reverse Lift scores respectably as well. I think two of their advantages are quality of individual elements, and attention to each category of components.
Denney/Frazier have such a boost in confidence going right now, and that's beautiful to see, since they've had all the potential and talent in the world for years but struggled with confidence after her serious injuries. C-G/L's and Kayne/O'Shea's upward trend has no doubt been great for their confidence as well. I've also been very happy to see how C-G/L, D/F, K/O and Calalang/Johnson have been great teammates as well as competitors at their fall comps. I'm not minimizing or underestimating the Knierims' chances or potential, but I actually don't agree that they presently have the highest scoring potential among U.S. pairs. I'm not counting them out .. they may well have made the right decision (for them), to have 6 or 8 weeks of uninterrupted training before nationals. And they may like going in under the radar (for a change!)
:hap57: 
Denney/Frazier have such a boost in confidence going right now, and that's beautiful to see, since they've had all the potential and talent in the world for years but struggled with confidence after her serious injuries. C-G/L's and Kayne/O'Shea's upward trend has no doubt been great for their confidence as well. I've also been very happy to see how C-G/L, D/F, K/O and Calalang/Johnson have been great teammates as well as competitors at their fall comps. I'm not minimizing or underestimating the Knierims' chances or potential, but I actually don't agree that they presently have the highest scoring potential among U.S. pairs. I'm not counting them out .. they may well have made the right decision (for them), to have 6 or 8 weeks of uninterrupted training before nationals. And they may like going in under the radar (for a change!)
:hap57: 
Skylark, I think folks might be remembering C-G/L’s twist from their early days & haven’t noticed how much it has improved in the past year (most likely due to their work with Mozer). They are my favorite current U.S. pair, for all the reasons you have named.
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Good point, Moxiejan. In fact, they only did a double twist for 6 months, IIRC. Ashley later said she didn't know what a triple twist felt like, since she and Josh Reagan had only skated as seniors at nationals the year they split, and had been juniors before that.
I think people say that because of the quality of Knierims elements. When they do them right, it's divine. (They had a huge breakthrough after training with Savchenko.)
Too bad they don't often do them right.
As far as I can see, all the top U.S. teams typically make at least one major error on one major element, and most make more than one. I've seen precious few clean skates or approximately clean skates or fully realized skates or performances competitive with medalists from any of these teams. It doesn't matter to me who has the highest "ceiling" if they can't deliver it in competition. And arguing over whether the Knierems or Cain-Gribble & Le Duc have a higher ceiling when they don't actually reach it has never felt worth it to me. Send whoever delivers at Nationals, IMO. I don't care what age they are. I don't care how much "potential" people claim they have. Just send the teams that deliver in the competition. If any of them do, which has certainly not been happening two programs in a row for any of the teams consistently.
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I'm with you on this one. With chances next to zero that any US team can make the podium, USFS should strategize for the next best goal: trying to get 3 spots for next year. A tough prospect, but not out of the question with the right two teams. The top two placements at Nationals should be ONE factor, not the only factor. While none of the US teams are rock solid consistent, if you bother to look, there are definite indications of which teams are trending upward and which aren't.
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Good points, everyone.
I'm interested in other aspects of the sport, and the competition, besides solely who wins, who comes out on top overall, etc. Although of course I do care.
When I wrote my post, above, I was thinking about the fact that certain pairs elements are valued, in the fandom at least, more than others. In part, I wanted to point out that single jumps, combination jumps, side-by-side spins are also pairs elements. As well as intangibles like unity of purpose, commitment to every move, and performance. And the judges are rewarding all those things, which I'm so glad to see.
So I was thinking more of a conversation, rather than who will win. I don't think I communicated that very well before. My apologies. It was late at night and I was sleep deprived, those are my only excuses!
I'm interested in other aspects of the sport, and the competition, besides solely who wins, who comes out on top overall, etc. Although of course I do care.
When I wrote my post, above, I was thinking about the fact that certain pairs elements are valued, in the fandom at least, more than others. In part, I wanted to point out that single jumps, combination jumps, side-by-side spins are also pairs elements. As well as intangibles like unity of purpose, commitment to every move, and performance. And the judges are rewarding all those things, which I'm so glad to see.So I was thinking more of a conversation, rather than who will win. I don't think I communicated that very well before. My apologies. It was late at night and I was sleep deprived, those are my only excuses!
Exactly. Nationals must be a significant factor, but the USFSA should measure the performances at all ISU events since last September of each of the top 4 or 5 US teams, and weigh that against what happens at Nationals.
I will say that if CG/L, SK/K and D/F are top 3 at Nationals in any order, then the US should just send the top 2 finishers to Worlds and the top 3 to 4CCs, since they are so evenly matched. But, if K/O and / or C/J sneak in to a top 2 finish at Nationals, BOW will have to be considered: The grit and determination from K/O and the potential of C/J should not be discounted. Perhaps the #2 finisher of either of those teams should be sent to 4CCs to prove themselves, since their BOW lags the other 3 teams a little.
I will say that if CG/L, SK/K and D/F are top 3 at Nationals in any order, then the US should just send the top 2 finishers to Worlds and the top 3 to 4CCs, since they are so evenly matched. But, if K/O and / or C/J sneak in to a top 2 finish at Nationals, BOW will have to be considered: The grit and determination from K/O and the potential of C/J should not be discounted. Perhaps the #2 finisher of either of those teams should be sent to 4CCs to prove themselves, since their BOW lags the other 3 teams a little.
I feel like Alexa and Chris will either win or have an NHK-esque meltdown. If they perform like they did at Skate Canada I think it would be tough to put anyone ahead of them, C/L included.
Personally I'm really pulling for Haven and Brandon to give us a Nationals moment with their Lion King program.
Personally I'm really pulling for Haven and Brandon to give us a Nationals moment with their Lion King program.
Totally agree with you because I remember how Tara Kayne and Danny O'Shea claimed National title in 2016 and then at 4CC and Worlds Knierims proved who was real US pair #1.
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I’m still not sure it was a meltdown and not an injury. I sure hope they don’t have a meltdown. I almost didn’t survive last year.
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USFSA doesn't just make up the rules at this late date, though, do they? There's a system for measuring and deciding. I believe the "Body of Work" system says that the skaters' international and national performances from the previous January are all taken into account and tallied up. All the events are ordered and weighed. i.e. Nationals 2020 results will have 1st weight or priority, then other events are prioritized and the results counted, including 2019 Nationals, Worlds and 4CC results.
The reason I remember this is that a year or two ago I read up on how the decision was made to send Zhang/Bartholomay to the 2014 Olympics. Denney/Coughlin had withdrawn from 2013 Nationals due to his injury/needing surgery, were assigned to go to Worlds 2013 but withdrew from that event as well. Z/B won 3rd at 2013 nationals and went to 4CC, where they were 4th. Their autumn 2013 GP results weren't as good as D/C's, but the 2013 nationals medal and 4CC result held priority over the the GP results, IIRC. (In case anyone has forgotten - ha! - Z/B won silver at Nationals 2014, while D/C won bronze.)
Denney/Coughlin were assigned Worlds 2014, but had to w/d due to Caydee's injury this time. So Z/B went to Worlds as well. IIRC, the system details exactly how the choices are made, whether it's for the Olympics or for Worlds in a non-Olympic year.
Whoever wins Nationals gets sent to Worlds, unless they have to w/d for some reason. The BOW system is for deciding if there's a question between whoever is 2d, 3d, etc.
