2019-20 Ladies' power ranking | Page 4 | Golden Skate

2019-20 Ladies' power ranking

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Sasha said warming up 3 quads was too much last season, but I’m wondering if now that her quad toe has become much more consistent she will be able to do this in the future.
 

colormyworld240

Medalist
Joined
Dec 9, 2017
I think of the Russian ladies, Sasha will definitely win everything barring major meltdown. No amount of PCS from the others is going to make up that gap. It gets more interesting with Alina/Rika - both have had amazing skates and bad skates. Rika will depend on her new layout and quads and how her ankle holds up for that lutz. Alina looks to be in good shape and her jumps look a lot better. I also think she deserves the highest PCS (under Anna but that'll never happen as she looks set to get the lowest) as skating skills are only one component and from test skates her interpretation and performance is beautiful and I don't really see how she can do more. She also has complex transitions that are held for longer now and 2 beautifully choreographed programs. And she definitely has far better spins than Sasha and Rika which will make more of a difference when it gets close. Those three look like the solid bets for top 3.

The most uncertainty comes from everyone else Liza, Evgenia, Alena, and Anna. I think Anna is probably the disadvantaged here. She doesn't get the hype for quads (not when Sasha is doing 3 that are infinitely more consistent), 3As, reputation, or skating skills. Imo she's the best artist by far but that's never won over the others things. My biggest wish for this season is that by some miracle the judges will see the superior artistry and I see and she'll get the best PE/IN scores for high PCS to make it to GPF/Euros/Worlds but it doesn't look like it, sadly.
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
Sasha said warming up 3 quads was too much last season, but I’m wondering if now that her quad toe has become much more consistent she will be able to do this in the future.

I'd love to see her 4S again, it looked so good in the most recent practice videos of it! And she could get the record for first to do three different quads in a free program in ladies.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I don't think it's PR when you say that you won't add quads to your layout or when someone ask you if you are training quads and that you say that it's pointless to talk about a jump if you have not landed it yet.

There are more obvious cases of PR imo.

Anyway, i only have a top 2:
1) Trusova. 170+ potential in the free
2) Kihira. Can score close to Trusova if clean but can't win. Japan always lose at the political game.

Zagitova, Kostornaya, Scherbakova, Tuktamysheva can all fight for the third place.
Zagitova can and will have big GOEs and strong PCS.
Kostornaya with her less risky program can score high. I won't be surprised to see her get 35+ and 70+ PCS at Nebelhorn.
Scherbakova needs to improve her pcs but her 4lz is a strong weapon.
Tukt needs can score big thanks to three 3A.


There’s nothing political about Rika (or anyone) being unable to match Trusova’s base value. Trusova put in the effort to learn the quads, which the Japanese and other ladies are more than welcome to try to do themselves. So let’s not dismiss her earned advantage and likelihood of winning as merely Russia playing a better political game. At the end of the day, federations don’t land the jumps or execute the programs for these skater - the skaters do that themselves.
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
There’s nothing political about Rika (or anyone) being unable to match Trusova’s base value. Trusova put in the effort to learn the quads, which the Japanese and other ladies are more than welcome to try to do themselves. So let’s not dismiss her earned advantage and likelihood of winning as merely Russia playing a better political game. At the end of the day, federations don’t land the jumps or execute the programs for these skater - the skaters do that themselves.

Okay.
 

yume

🍉
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 11, 2016
As much as I want Rika to be number 1, realistically Sasha's components aren't being scored particularly lowly, even though her program design is fairly lacklustre (you've seen one or two programs, you've seen them all) and her skating isn't all that interesting. The main points of contention between the two are (plus means base value advantage to Rika etc)

SP:
3A vs 2A (+4.70)
3T vs 3Lo(x) (-1.19)

FS:
2x3A vs 2x4T (-3)
4S vs 4Lz (-2.2)
2T vs 2A (-2)
3Lo(x) vs 3F(x) (-0.44)

This sums to an overall -4.13, which means if both skaters get an average of +3 GOE on their elements, Rika is at a TES deficit of about 5.3 points. In principle, she should be able to make up 5 points difference in PCS, but Sasha's PCS would have to stagnate, while Rika's would need to improve. In fact, Rika scored 33.64 + 68.96 = 102.60 PCS in total, whereas Sasha scored 32.20 + 65.44 = 97.64, which gives a difference of amazingly 4.96 points. Therefore, had Rika and Sasha skated clean programs with planned content with average of +3 GOE for each element, with the PCS given to them at the first competition, the final result becomes far too close to call.

I have made several assumptions here, including Rika landing a 4S with +3 GOE and actually landing all three 3As. In return, I have assumed Sasha does not mess up either 3Lz-3Lo and lands all three quads. What's a stronger assumption? I guess we'll find out.

Also, it must be said that unless Sasha adds a 3A to her program, Rika will benefit more from both of them adding new quads to their free programs. If Rika adds a 4T and Sasha adds a 4F, Rika can swap the 4T for a 2T in the 3A-2T, make it a 3A-3T, and then change her 3Lz-3T to a 3Lz/3F-3Lo (she's landed both in practice before: https://jumpitwithashuulanditwithap...ka-kihira-x-3-3-combo-3a3t-3lz3t-3lz3lo-3f3lo), in effect swapping a 2T for a 4T, whereas Sasha has to swap out a triple for a 4F, like, (ironically) a 3F. Rika gains 9.5 - 1.3 = 8.2 BV but Sasha gains 10.5 - 5.3 = 5.2 BV, and thus Rika with 3 3As + 2 quads would actually tie with Sasha with 4 quads. Hence the importance of a 3A to Sasha, to swap out the 2As in both the short and the free.

That said, Sasha has said that warming up three quads is almost impossible under competition conditions. I wonder if that includes a 3A too; would warming up two quads and a 3A also be too much?

Good analysis.
Skate Canada will be interesting to watch. Or Japan open, but i prefer the scoring of GP instead of the scoring of a commercial event. Little chances imo that both will go clean there but if they do we will be fixed about the gap. I'm more interested about overall TES (three quads + two loops combos VS 1 quad + three 3As), and the average GOE.

She already had to stabilize her 3A but it would have been interesting for Rika to keep working on her -loops combos.

Maybe we will see a 4T for Rika and a 4F for Sasha next season, in preparation for oly season.

Good news from Lilbet.
https://www.sports.kz/news/otets-tu...avme-planah-na-olimpiadu-i-trenere-tutberidze
She is already actively training and preparing for competitions, and they are optimistic about her full recovery. So far, all this is vague and so far it is like a dark horse. But given its potential and the success of last season, she can go in to the top of any list here. We'll see.
I hope that her injury will be fully healed before SA. She started slowly last season so i don't expext to see her throw big guns or be consistent. But if she can be near clean with 3-3s it's enough for top 5 in GPs imo.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
This week update

#1-2 Alina Zagitova[/B] (235 - 240)


#1-2 Alexandra Trusova (230 - 245)

Japan Open showed that as of now Alina and Alexandra are in the league of their own well ahead of competition. Sasha made a feat of 4 landed quads. Yet, her FS score was only 6 points higher than that of Alina. I think that the difference in their SP will be about the same in Alina's favor. It means that so far they are about the same score wise. However, Sasha's potential upside is higher. She can introduce a triple axel, she can improve the landings, she may improve her pcs. Hence, 75+170=245 is feasible even without a 3A. Alina's ceiling is 240 (83+157). On the other hand, Sasha's layout is much much riskier.

#3 Rika Kihira (225 - 235)

Rika's triple axel looks quite strong now. However, without a quad she is not competitive with Trusova. For me the pcs gap between her and Alina is clear if she keeps skating like she did at JO and in the States. People say that she is still recovering from an injury. Then the upside is also there.

#4 Anna Scherbakova (220 - 230)


#5 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (215 - 235)

#6 Evgeniya Medvedeva (215 - 225)

Evgeniya was reported sick. However, she delivered the short program at Shanghai Trophy quite well. What happened during the free program raises a lot of questions. But I won't go to conclusions yet. Let's wait for GP series.

#7 Alena Kostornaya (215 - 220)

#8-10 Bradie Tennell (205 - 215) -1

I like how she skated at JO. However, her score of 124 means that she will not have easy time competing with Kaori and Satoko.

#8-10 Kaori Sakomoto (205 - 215) +0.5


#8-10 Satoko Miyahara
(205 - 215) +0.5

Satoko is still around.
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
Japan Open showed that as of now Alina and Alexandra are in the league of their own well ahead of competition. Sasha made a feat of 4 landed quads. Yet, her FS score was only 6 points higher than that of Alina. I think that the difference in their SP will be about the same in Alina's favor. It means that so far they are about the same score wise. However, Sasha's potential upside is higher. She can introduce a triple axel, she can improve the landings, she may improve her pcs. Hence, 75+170=245 is feasible even without a 3A. Alina's ceiling is 240 (83+157). On the other hand, Sasha's layout is much much riskier.

I believe Sasha was purposefully lowballed on her jumps GOEs. If you compare her protocol with other skaters and then compare quality of their jumps - it will become obvious. Any man with the same quads would get at least +2. They were huge, effortless, with good body position etc. - there were enough plus criterias to offset slightly not ideal landings. Yet they still gave her only +0 for clean quads. Question is - will she be judged in the same "Jin Boyang treatment" way in other comps as it was here? If she won't - I think it will be hard for Alina to win because even medium GOEs on quads gives lots of points.
 

skatergurl7

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 29, 2019
World top 3 rankings imo:
1. Sasha
2. Alina
3. Rika (could move up to 2 depending on the 4S and if she adds back the lutz, but I don’t see her overtaking Sasha if they both skate relatively clean).

Russia world team:
1. Sasha
2. Alina
3. Anna (depending on a clean skate) or Evgenia. I think Liza is out just due to her lack of PCS and program quality/structure which isn’t maximizing her points at all. Alena I have a feeling will get lowballed in scores this year since she doesn’t have a 3A or quad, or the reputation of Alina/Evgenia.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
I believe Sasha was purposefully lowballed on her jumps GOEs. If you compare her protocol with other skaters and then compare quality of their jumps - it will become obvious. Any man with the same quads would get at least +2. They were huge, effortless, with good body position etc. - there were enough plus criterias to offset slightly not ideal landings. Yet they still gave her only +0 for clean quads. Question is - will she be judged in the same "Jin Boyang treatment" way in other comps as it was here? If she won't - I think it will be hard for Alina to win because even medium GOEs on quads gives lots of points.

I'd argue that both Rika and Sasha were underscored relative to Alina, for sure. All three deserved a similar amount of GOE on their clean jumps; obviously Rika's 3Lo and one of her 3As weren't perfect, while Sasha deservedly lost points on her improvised 4T-Eu-3S (but perhaps she should have lost more on the 4T-3T? Landing on 4T quite suspect), but everything else...hmm...
 

colormyworld240

Medalist
Joined
Dec 9, 2017
This week update

#1-2 Alina Zagitova[/B] (235 - 240)


#1-2 Alexandra Trusova (230 - 245)

Japan Open showed that as of now Alina and Alexandra are in the league of their own well ahead of competition. Sasha made a feat of 4 landed quads. Yet, her FS score was only 6 points higher than that of Alina. I think that the difference in their SP will be about the same in Alina's favor. It means that so far they are about the same score wise. However, Sasha's potential upside is higher. She can introduce a triple axel, she can improve the landings, she may improve her pcs. Hence, 75+170=245 is feasible even without a 3A. Alina's ceiling is 240 (83+157). On the other hand, Sasha's layout is much much riskier.

#3 Rika Kihira (225 - 235)

Rika's triple axel looks quite strong now. However, without a quad she is not competitive with Trusova. For me the pcs gap between her and Alina is clear if she keeps skating like she did at JO and in the States. People say that she is still recovering from an injury. Then the upside is also there.

#4 Anna Scherbakova (220 - 230)


#5 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (215 - 235)

#6 Evgeniya Medvedeva (215 - 225)

Evgeniya was reported sick. However, she delivered the short program at Shanghai Trophy quite well. What happened during the free program raises a lot of questions. But I won't go to conclusions yet. Let's wait for GP series.

#7 Alena Kostornaya (215 - 220)

#8-10 Bradie Tennell (205 - 215) -1

I like how she skated at JO. However, her score of 124 means that she will not have easy time competing with Kaori and Satoko.

#8-10 Kaori Sakomoto (205 - 215) +0.5


#8-10 Satoko Miyahara
(205 - 215) +0.5

Satoko is still around.

In terms of the the first two, I'd switch them and have Sasha first. Alina should and will outscore Sasha by quite a bit in the SP, but Sasha is unlikely to have all the same messy landings as she did at JO. And if they're just a bit better, the score will rise quickly as all those quads get quad GOE factoring; even getting 1 more GOE on all her passes will make a huge difference. With Alina this is close to her maximum TES as all her jumps were executed well. She did lose some in spins and step sequence, but so did Sasha. So the way it looks to me is that Alina will have to continue being close to perfect to maintain her place, while Sasha only has to perform a little better to widen the gap by a considerable amount. Though, it is a bit more than "only" because we're talking about quads, but this is Sasha and we've seen her jump better than here.
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
I believe Sasha was purposefully lowballed on her jumps GOEs. If you compare her protocol with other skaters and then compare quality of their jumps - it will become obvious. Any man with the same quads would get at least +2. They were huge, effortless, with good body position etc. - there were enough plus criterias to offset slightly not ideal landings. Yet they still gave her only +0 for clean quads. Question is - will she be judged in the same "Jin Boyang treatment" way in other comps as it was here? If she won't - I think it will be hard for Alina to win because even medium GOEs on quads gives lots of points.

I'd argue that both Rika and Sasha were underscored relative to Alina, for sure. All three deserved a similar amount of GOE on their clean jumps; obviously Rika's 3Lo and one of her 3As weren't perfect, while Sasha deservedly lost points on her improvised 4T-Eu-3S (but perhaps she should have lost more on the 4T-3T? Landing on 4T quite suspect), but everything else...hmm...

Yep. Just to illustrate that: https://i.ibb.co/GWRtqx8/1570314404589.jpg :rolleye:
 

Seruleane

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
Time for some new power rankings! Since Alena K unveiled her triple axels, and judges showed us that they will not deny her the deserved PCS for her pristine skating, I think she should move up a bit.

1-3: Trusova, Scherbakova, Kostornaya in any order- as last year showed, any of them could get first place depending on how well they skate vs. the others. If Sasha or Anna land their quads, then they are at an advantage but I have a feeling Kostornaya will have the highest PCS (deservedly so) and if she lands her triple axels, well then...it will be very exciting to see who ends up on top!

4: Zagitova- she is still the Queen as far as I'm concerned, and it will be interesting to see how judges score her on PCS when she is skating with Kostornaya (I expect relatively high PCS for both), but without a quad or triple axel, she is at a slight disadvantage. It's too bad, esp since I think her skating skills, posture and expression have improved greatly. Regardless, I wish her the best season possible, and who knows, she might have a surprise for us like Kostornaya.

5: Kihira- really, I debated putting her at 1-3 or even tied at 4 with Alina. I think she will most likely to move up, depending on her upcoming performances. Without the lutz, her triple axels do not put her at that much of an advantage (like Tukt). However, she is training a quad as well, so that may very well end up putting her in the top 3 with the 3A.

6-7: Tuktamysheva, Medvedeva - Tukt looks very strong this season, and I anticipate she will stay strong and is a dark horse for the podium if the ladies ranked above don't perform to their full potential. Medvedeva is a threat as well- I anticipate she will continue to improve throughout the season just like last year, and her programs this year are infinitely better IMO.


It's crazy to think I didn't even get to rank Satoko or Kaori, but I love seeing both of them skate, and hope they will get on some podiums as well.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
Concerning Alena I would wait until tomorrow. Alina on the other hand is still #1 in my rankings. Her last season score of 237.5 is a benchmark. Before any of 3A surpasses it I would not place her behind them. And whether any of them but Trusova can actually receive such a score is an open question.
 

Fluture

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 26, 2018
Concerning Alena I would wait until tomorrow. Alina on the other hand is still #1 in my rankings. Her last season score of 237.5 is a benchmark. Before any of 3A surpasses it I would not place her behind them. And whether any of them but Trusova can actually receive such a score is an open question.

Didn't Trusova surpass that score already? As far as I know her score from Nepela is 238.69. I would rank Sasha firmly in first. Of course, if we're judging by Japan Open, then Alina is close on her heels, ready to beat her when she makes the smallest mistakes. She will have a lead from the SP as well but Sasha's PCS will inevitably rise (we all know that) and 3-4 quads is not something Alina can beat on GOE and PCS alone when both are absolutely clean.

Agreed on Aliona. She's one of my faves but she hasn't even landed the 3A yet. Let's wait for tomorrow at least.
 

Vandevska

U don't have to build the end of the world out it.
Medalist
Joined
Dec 18, 2017
Imo Sasha might have struggles throughout the year, but I believe Worlds this year is hers.
 

Seruleane

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
Well, personally I think judges will award Aliona the highest PCS of the 3A (comparable to Alina). In this case, she barely needs the 3A. Also, as a junior, she was competing against Trusova's and Scherbakova's quads and still had some wins over them. However, showing the 3A in practice was a very smart strategy IMO, as it lets the judges (and competitors) know she is practicing and landing the harder jumps. It is similar to what Alina and Evgenia used to do with their 3lutz+loop+loop+loop and 3S+3T+3T+3T and so on. Remember that judges watch the practice sessions too, and I would bet that it has an effect on competition scores. But yes, let's see about tomorrow. I don't think my predictions will change.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Well, personally I think judges will award Aliona the highest PCS of the 3A (comparable to Alina). In this case, she barely needs the 3A. Also, as a junior, she was competing against Trusova's and Scherbakova's quads and still had some wins over them. However, showing the 3A in practice was a very smart strategy IMO, as it lets the judges (and competitors) know she is practicing and landing the harder jumps. It is similar to what Alina and Evgenia used to do with their 3lutz+loop+loop+loop and 3S+3T+3T+3T and so on. Remember that judges watch the practice sessions too, and I would bet that it has an effect on competition scores. But yes, let's see about tomorrow. I don't think my predictions will change.

The difference now is that Sasha has four quads, and one of the quads replaces a 2A, and her quad consistency appears to be higher than last year. Alena only really had a shot last season if Sasha missed her jumps, which is becoming less likely (somewhat scarily). She also doesn't have an edge in the short over Sasha yet until she puts a 3A in the short too. Until that happens, it's only really Alina and Rika that have the potential numbers to possibly catch Sasha unawares. I'm not sold on Anna yet.
 
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