Who will be the last six MEN to skate their LP?

mzheng said:

Buttle, properbaly will be on podium this worlds.

It was reported that he got his quad back, and his 3A is more consistant than ever.

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He never really *had* his quad (at least in competition) except for standing up on it twice in 2003 (4cc where he did a kick *** quad/triple and worlds where he put his hands down). He hasn't confirmed that he'll be doing it at Worlds, though he wants to, he says he's practicing very hard on it but will decide (with Raphael and Lee) closer to Moscow whether it will be included. Personally, I dont think he needs it to make top 5. If he skates cleanly he can do it, and the quad can affect his skating (whether he falls or lands it). But to medal he'll need a quad in the LP and 3 clean skates (QR, SP, LP)

screech said:

He never really *had* his quad (at least in competition) except for standing up on it twice in 2003 (4cc where he did a kick *** quad/triple and worlds where he put his hands down). He hasn't confirmed that he'll be doing it at Worlds, though he wants to, he says he's practicing very hard on it but will decide (with Raphael and Lee) closer to Moscow whether it will be included. Personally, I dont think he needs it to make top 5. If he skates cleanly he can do it, and the quad can affect his skating (whether he falls or lands it). But to medal he'll need a quad in the LP and 3 clean skates (QR, SP, LP)

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Well, I said 'properbaly', did I? Just a thought that without a quad he's been doing well the whole season. Considering he lost the quad earlier at the season, actually it was reported that this was the main reason he came to Rafael at the first place, I think it is good that he at least gets it back now. Will he include it in his program? I don't know. I guess as usual the way Rafael with his student it will depend on how consistant when he put into his program.

Besides, every thing has the first time, why can't this be the first time he stands up? Just like what I had said in another thread on another board why cant' Plushen be the first to break Olympic's Silver medalist curse at Turino.

I'm not a fan of Buttle, neither a fan of Plushen, just a thought to pass along what the 'rumore' has to say.

Plushenko
Weir
Buttle
Joubert
Goebel
Li


I'll post my thoughts on group 2 soon!

Laura_B said:

I'll post my thoughts on group 2 soon!

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Laura, I'm waiting for your goup 2 It's not easy to list twelve angry men

Joe

Plushenko
Joubert
Weir
Buttle
Li


Last spot a toss-up between Lambiel, Lindemann, Honda, Goebel, Sandhu and Lysacek. Like the ladies, it will be tough fighting just to get into the final 6.

I haven't seen Jeff do or even try a quad this season. I think he'll leave it out and, instead, focus on three solid skates.

Alright, here's my group 2!

Lysacek
Lambiel
Lindemann
Sandhu
Dambier
Griazev

This was tough! I can see Evan being in the top group with Li in the second, and I can also see Kevin VDP replacing either Dambier or Griazev in group 2. There are also some skaters that from this group that I like better and would prefer to be in group 1, but alas, it doesn't always work out the way I want it to!

For the last warm-up (and I think the final placements) it will be:
1. Plushenko--even if he makes a mistake his artistry and difficulty of elements (spins especially) will put him aboveJoubert
2. Joubert--as much as I love Brian, like I said he's definitely lacking in the presentation element
3. Goebel--I think that if he skates clean then his quad will put him up here
4. Li--one of the best technically, it will be an issue of his keeping his head together on the day of the event...once again, spins not the best but he has pretty good footwork and step difficulty
5. Weir--I think that his presentation could easily beat Goebel and Li but the lack of a quad is going to keep him off of the podium
6. Sandhu--I think he'll do well enough in short with fewer elements to worry about so he'll be put in this warm-up and if he keeps it together well enough he could stay


Second to last warm-up (and placements again):
7. Griazev--I've heard he's been landing a quad pretty consistently so I think he could be up here--presentation is an issue though
8. Lambiel--amazing spins...its that swiss thing? but he seems to have a habit of jumping all over the place (no pun intended) in terms of placement
9, 10, 11, 12. A mix of Buttle, Lindemann, Van Der Perren, and Dambier
These could go anyway (this whole warm-up could really go any way, it all depends on the programs that these guys do...)

Sorry that this is too long!

Dimly viewed in a highly imperfect crystal ball and alphabetically ordered:

Goebel-Joubert-Lambiel-Li-Plushenko-Weir;
Buttle*-Dambier-Griazev*-Sandhu(a)-vanderPerren-Zhang(b)
Lysacek into the top 10 from 13th or 14th.

(the last group I'd most enjoy would be JB-SL-EP-ES-JW-MZ. MZ is due to be ahead of CL, and it would be nice to see two clean programs from ES, but I'd most want to see JB, SL and JW all in one group. They could be quite a triumvirate in the next Olympic cycle; I've a little idea that SL and JW are almost polar opposites and that JB is almost right in the middle between them.)

Goebel: will likely be held up, though will probably reach the last-group standard of two quads in QR/SP.
Joubert: as the Annointed Alternative To Plushenko, will definitely be held up if necessary (but it likely won't be).
Lambiel: assuming few clean high-risk programs, SL will make a mistake, but will find it easier than most others to regain ground (true, he could make too many mistakes, but he's usually excellent in the QR).
Li: the most likely to land three quads in QR/SP, but will likely lose steam in FS and drop out of the top six.
Plushenko: looking in strong mental condition for the foreseeable future.
Weir: will he be safe or bold? Bold with good results could wrest the AATP spot from Joubert; safe might be enough to assure 3 Olympic berths.
Buttle: will deserve to be in the last group, and likely to skate beatifully after getting over the national title hurdle, but sadly he's my choice for Most Likely Victim of a Probable Judging Controversy.
Griazev: assuming the crowd is more help than hindrance.
Lysacek: might not get the benefit-of-the-doubt pass on a close call that he'll likely get when he's a bit more seasoned.

I visualize most of the North Americans making upward progress in the FS.
scenario a) Sandhu will settle himself after an unsatisfactory QR and move steadily up to jump into the top six while Buttle is still held down.
scenario b) Sandhu will have a good QR but a so-so SP and lose all interest in the LP, dropping out of the top ten. Buttle will go all out and move up. Zhang will respond well to the Olympic situation.

Though it isn't part of the thread, I'll add a guess about a third Olympic berth:

USA - will probably deserve it; will get it
Russia - the crowd may be worth key points; will get it
Canada - could outskate USA, but too close to call
France - on the bubble, I'm guessing someone cracks and they don't get it
China - will eight quads be enough?

I've a little idea that SL and JW are almost polar opposites and that JB is almost right in the middle between them.

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They're all insanely good skaters, and it's really hard for me to choose a favorite between them.

OK, here goes.....

Final 6:
Brian Joubert (obvious; skated well at Euros, so may be peaking at the right time)
Evgeny Plushenko (obvious; most likely on top of the podium, too)
Stéphane Lambiel (definitely in the final 6, but idk how close to the podium he'll be; kinda erratic at Euros plus he's coming off injury)
Johnny Weir (love him or hate him, he got the consistancy and the content; he'll be in the top 6 with a good shot to medal)
Timothy Goebel (this was a hard one; he usually does well in big competitions like this, and skated well at Nats. It all depend on whether he brings his jumps; I'd put him as a wild card)
Chengjiang Li (usually consistent for the short programme with a gorgeous 4toe-3toe and then blows it in the free programme. He can make it to the final 6, though)

Next 6:
Jeff Buttle* (for me, it all depends if he stands up in his short programme. If he does, both of his programmes are so wonderfully and difficultly choreographed, you can bet he'll be in the top 6)
Stefan Lindemann* (IMHO, he's looked kinda average this year on the GP. He did turn it in at Euros though, so maybe he's peaking at the right time)
Evan Lysacek* (Once again, the Lysacek conundrum will factor in: he will skate two wonderful programme that will be appreciated by none of the panel )
Emanuel Sandhu* (not as consistent leading up to Worlds, IMHO)
Kevin van der Perren (really want to put an asterisk next to his name or put him in the top 6, but he hasn't shown us anything this year to do that. The 3axel's back and if he has a Skate Canada 2004 moment, he could be higher)
Frédéric Dambier (same story as KVDP, would love to put him higher and if he skates well, I could. He was 8th last year, so I think he'll be in the penultimate 6)