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Thread: 2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

  1. #1
    Skating is Art, if you let it be Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

    The Team event, considered a bit of a farce by many observers thus far, but an Olympic medal event nonetheless. What changes would you like to see to the event, and what is your forecast for 2022? There are 3 things I would like to see changed about the event, possibly 4:

    1. The Long Program should be worth more. It's always been the more important and higher scoring event, so why is it worth the same amount of points as the Short Program (and actually worth relatively less points right now, because of less teams competing in the LP)? Factoring the LP placements at 1.5 or 2 points instead of 1 point would make far more sense.

    2. Allow 8 teams to progress to the LP portion of the competition. It doesn't feel right to only have 5 teams competing for a medal.

    3. Allow 6 competition slots per country for both the SP and LP, meaning that countries need to double-up in two of the events, which rewards teams who have depth in multiple disciplines, while allowing for variety. Russia would most likely double-up in Ladies and Pairs (and use all 3 Ladies across the SP+LP; someone who doesn't have a 3Axel would sit the SP, but could be the better LP skater because of Quads). USA would likely double-up Dance and Men. China would likely double-up in Pairs and Men. Japan and South Korea would double-up in the Singles disciplines.

    (4.) open to debate about whether this would be better or not - Figure out a scoring range for each discipline and award Team points to each competitor based upon how they scored within that range, rather than this system of determining points by relative rankings in each segment, which seemingly goes against the idea of the CoP scoring system.

    Assuming none of these changes actually happen though, this would be my current prediction for how the 2022 event plays out (assuming Switzerland is the 10th country and France will have James/Cipres still competing):

    Ladies SP:
    1. Russia
    2. Japan
    3. USA
    4. South Korea
    5. Switzerland
    6. China
    7. Italy (maybe a Kostner comeback? She would automatically get higher PCS than many other ladies even if she is only doing easy jumps)
    8. Canada
    9. France
    10. Germany

    Ladies LP:
    1. Russia
    2. Japan
    3. USA
    4. China
    5. France

    Men's SP: (this event will likely be the biggest factor in which 2 teams between China/France/Japan/Canada advance to the entire LP phase)
    1. USA
    2. Japan
    3. China
    4. Russia
    5. France
    6. Canada
    7. South Korea
    8. Italy
    9. Germany
    10. Switzerland

    Men's LP: (assuming Nathan Chen competes, knowing he's probably needed for USA to have a chance at Gold)
    1. USA
    2. Japan
    3. China
    4. Russia
    5. France

    Pairs SP:
    1. China
    2. Russia
    3. Canada
    4. France
    5. Italy
    6. USA
    7. Germany
    8. Japan
    9. South Korea
    10. Switzerland

    Pairs LP: (assuming Sui/Han compete, knowing a medal chance is on the line)
    1. China
    2. Russia
    3. France
    4. USA
    5. Japan

    Dance SP:
    1. France
    2. Russia
    3. USA
    4. Canada
    5. Italy
    6. China
    7. South Korea
    8. Japan
    9. Germany
    10. Switzerland

    Dance LP:
    1. France
    2. Russia
    3. USA
    4. China
    5. Japan

    FINAL PLACEMENT:
    1. Russia (70 points)
    2. USA (64 points)
    3. China (60 points)
    4. France (55 points)
    5. Japan (54 points)
    ---
    6. Canada (23 points)
    7. Italy (19 points)
    8. South Korea (17 points)
    9. Switzerland (9 points)
    10. Germany (9 points)

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    1. The Long Program should be worth more. It's always been the more important and higher scoring event, so why is it worth the same amount of points as the Short Program (and actually worth relatively less points right now, because of less teams competing in the LP)? Factoring the LP placements at 1.5 points or 2 points instead of 1 point would make far more sense.
    I would say the LP is worth less than the SP. The top finisher can earn 9 points more than last place in the SP, but only 4 more than the last place finisher in the LP.

    If I could make one change, it would be to allow countries to count only the top 3 finishers towards the final standings in each segment. Too few countries can field a competitive lineup.

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    GS Supporter ladyjane's Avatar
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    Thank you Blades of Passion for starting this thread. Sounds like fun. I am one of those people who like the team event, I like it because there are more medals for the athletes (even if a Team event medal is different) and it's also nice to watch.

    One of the things I always wonder about is why the Team event is at the beginning. There exist pro's and con's for either doing it at the beginning or the end (all valid) but I would like to know what argument actually weighed the strongest to let it be the first.

    And now, obviously, your 3 points.

    1. I don't think it's necessary. The result of the SP has allready ensured that there are fewer participants than in the SP. That's enough. It is a team event after all so within the competitors in place per round, no need to also increase what the LP is worth.

    2. I agree. Good suggestion. In the single events, app. 80% of the SP skaters get to skate the LP. Why not do the same for the Team event except then it applies to the teams?

    3. I am not sure about this one. I've always thought the World Team Trophy is biased towards the single disciplines (and I still think that is the case) but your suggestion would even that bias out while still ensuring that any country can make use of its strengths in a discipline. Countries with good pairs/dancers could include more of those, countries with good singles those. Not sure about the organisation and logistics of all this or how it will work out in practice.

    Finally, I'm actually hoping Italy will finally get a medal in the Team event. They might not have the best skaters in every discipline but they've got good dancers, good pairs, and good men. Not so much good in ladies although Carolina might be back while Alessia Tornaghi does show promise. And Italy just missed the medals both in 2014 and 2018. They may not have the gold winning skaters but definitely good skaters, and that is what should count in the team event. You don't need individual gold medal winners, you need good skating allround (yeah, I hail from the Netherlands which has a history in allround speed skating).

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    Medalist vesperalvioletta's Avatar
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    I've wondered if Georgia could be a contender in the team event in 2022. They have Kvitelashvili and Maysuradze in men's, Alina Urushadze in ladies', Butaeva/Berulava in pairs, and Kazakova/Reviya in dance, assuming that all the athletes qualify.

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    GS Supporter Colonel Green's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    3. Allow 6 competition slots per country for both the SP and LP, meaning that countries need to double-up in two of the events, which rewards teams who have depth in multiple disciplines, while allowing for variety. Russia would most likely double-up in Ladies and Pairs (and use all 3 Ladies across the SP+LP; someone who doesn't have a 3Axel would sit the SP, but could be the better LP skater because of Quads). USA would likely double-up Dance and Men. China would likely double-up in Pairs and Men. Japan and South Korea would double-up in the Singles disciplines.
    This is a really bad idea, and would only exacerbate the inherent advantages of the top federations and make it harder for the small feds to compete. The countries with a ton of depth are already amply rewarded by their being able to swap out heavy-hitters and pace them better for both the team and individual competitions if they so desire.

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    Tripping on the Podium
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    I'd like to see 2. happen as well, maybe 7 or 8 teams.

    A change I would like to see is the team event being moved to after the individual events have taken place.

    Quote Originally Posted by vesperalvioletta View Post
    I'v wondered if Georgia could be a contender in the team event in 2022. They have Kvitelashvili and Maysuradze in men's, Alina Urushadze in ladies', Butaeva/Berulava in pairs, and Kazakova/Reviya in dance, assuming that all the athletes qualify.
    I agree with you!
    I would also think Ukraine - if the fed is supportive of their current skaters.
    Perhaps 2026 is a surer bet if not 2022.

    I don't think South Korea has a competing pair and not sure if the Swiss pair would qualify the minimum score, but a lot can happen in a year or so. Could there be a unified Korean team featuring North Korean pairs? They made it happen for women's ice hockey.

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    Tripping on the Podium IndiaP12's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vesperalvioletta View Post
    I'v wondered if Georgia could be a contender in the team event in 2022. They have Kvitelashvili and Maysuradze in men's, Alina Urushadze in ladies', Butaeva/Berulava in pairs, and Kazakova/Reviya in dance, assuming that all the athletes qualify.
    They’ve also got Nika Egadze, who has improved a lot, and he’s still got over a year to get his quads/3A more consistent and fix things up

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamer57 View Post
    A change I would like to see is the team event being moved to after the individual events have taken place.
    I think this would be better for the athletes. However, the ladies competition is arguably the most important event of the Winter Olympics, and the IOC probably wants to keep that as late in the Games as possible. By holding the team event last, the women would have to wrap up by Wednesday so they can have a day off before the Team competition Friday and Saturday.

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    Skating is Art, if you let it be Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vesperalvioletta View Post
    I'v wondered if Georgia could be a contender in the team event in 2022. They have Kvitelashvili and Maysuradze in men's, Alina Urushadze in ladies', Butaeva/Berulava in pairs, and Kazakova/Reviya in dance, assuming that all the athletes qualify.
    That does seem likely, I had forgotten about Georgia having a decent upcoming Pair team. Part of my prediction for Switzerland being the 10th team was the current good training environment they seem to having during these covid times, which could really benefit them. I was thinking their singles guy could improve a good amount, to secure a decent qualification score for the team (he already improved a lot from 2019 to 2020), plus Alexia Paganini bringing in a good qualification score.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamer57 View Post
    I don't think South Korea has a competing pair and not sure if the Swiss pair would qualify the minimum score.
    The rules allow teams to bring in 1 competitor who didn't qualify on their own individually. I assume South Korea will find some pair to throw out there, but they don't even need one to qualify. It's only required to qualify in 3 disciplines, and they would already have enough points to finish 8th without any pair.

    Quote Originally Posted by Colonel Green View Post
    This is a really bad idea, and would only exacerbate the inherent advantages of the top federations and make it harder for the small feds to compete.
    It's a team event. Depth should be rewarded, the same as in any other sport. No small fed has a chance at a medal anyway.

  10. #10
    GS Supporter Colonel Green's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    It's a team event. Depth should be rewarded, the same as in any other sport. No small fed has a chance at a medal anyway.
    Depth already is rewarded, as I said (not to mention, of course, that the federations that have depth also have disproportionate weight in the judging system).

    And it isn't just what we think of as the "small" feds. Medium-sized feds like France and Italy, which are plausible bronze medal contenders, would be seriously handicapped by this proposal. Changes that make the team event less competitive are not good for the sport or the event.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    What changes would you like to see to the event
    1. If the Olympic Movement isn't willing to incorporate a genuine team skating event, ie synchro - which is understandable given their desire to decrease athlete numbers and increase sustainability - then add to the sustainability of the Games overall by ditching the separate performances making up the 'team' event.

    2. Remodel the team competition along the lines of the team competition at Nebelhorn Trophy. Last place holder in the SP/SD for each discipline gets 1 point, second last place holder gets 2 and so on. Rinse and repeat for the FS/FD.

    3. The team with the biggest points total wins gold, second biggest total silver, third biggest total bronze. If a tiebreaker is needed, it's the combined scores of all competitors for each team across all programs.

    I don't care enough about the outcome to give a prediction, I'm just about the logistics.

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    GS Supporter Colonel Green's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harriet View Post
    1. If the Olympic Movement isn't willing to incorporate a genuine team skating event, ie synchro - which is understandable given their desire to decrease athlete numbers and increase sustainability - then add to the sustainability of the Games overall by ditching the separate performances making up the 'team' event.

    2. Remodel the team competition along the lines of the team competition at Nebelhorn Trophy. Last place holder in the SP/SD for each discipline gets 1 point, second last place holder gets 2 and so on. Rinse and repeat for the FS/FD.

    3. The team with the biggest points total wins gold, second biggest total silver, third biggest total bronze. If a tiebreaker is needed, it's the combined scores of all competitors for each team across all programs.

    I don't care enough about the outcome to give a prediction, I'm just about the logistics.
    This would make the competition pretty meaningless, and would also skew the competition even more toward countries with multiple entries.

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    Skating is Art, if you let it be Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colonel Green View Post
    Depth already is rewarded, as I said
    It's barely rewarded. Having a substitution between SP and LP isn't nearly as impactful as needing to count scores from 6 separate performances. The argument of "resting" skaters between the Team event and Individual event is completely irrelevant to how it should operate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Colonel Green View Post
    And it isn't just what we think of as the "small" feds. Medium-sized feds like France and Italy, which are plausible bronze medal contenders, would be seriously handicapped by this proposal.
    Then they should work on building up a more robust program. It's a sport and the best should be rewarded. Should we limit it to 2 entries per discipline in the individual events, just because these countries can't field as many solid skaters as other countries? The entire concept of countries being this big dividing line is quite silly anyway, and "small feds" already have the benefit of their lower-skilled skaters being allowed to compete over higher-skilled skaters from more crowded countries. I find it much more unfair that very strong competitors are not allowed to compete, because of the restrictions in place.

    TEAM competition generally means a sizable group of people competing together. Right now it feels a bit too small to me; technically you only have to qualify for 3 disciplines anyway, and could theoretically win a Team medal by only competing in 3 disciplines, with just 1 same entry in each of those 3 disciplines (or by just having some total throw-away entry in the 4th discipline, who scores dead last and lower than a Novice-level competitor, but gets the minimum Team points for that segment via the rules anyway). That definitely isn't sufficient to me for what a Team format should be.

    This also brings much more strategy to the event by having that setup, introducing a different aspect to competitive skating that isn't seen otherwise. Teams could game which disciplines they are going to use multiple entries in, and have further options of substituting between the SP + LP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vesperalvioletta View Post
    I'v wondered if Georgia could be a contender in the team event in 2022. They have Kvitelashvili and Maysuradze in men's, Alina Urushadze in ladies', Butaeva/Berulava in pairs, and Kazakova/Reviya in dance, assuming that all the athletes qualify.
    INteresting but they would need to improve a lot in pairs and dance. And a team like Canada which is struggling continue to dive. Though other than ladies they have hope. The poor Canadian women what a disaster. unless Gabby regains her form they are in so much trouble. The men are interesting. Keegan would appear to be their best hope but he is most likely to retire before the olympics due to age and life. That leaves you Nam who has never developed as fast or as well - quads and speed and power, Roman and Gogolov whose great hope has come crashing to an end. He might be like Nam but then again Nam has not regained his Jr world status or even no. 5 in the world senior. All it takes is a few slip ups or good skates and who knows?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    INteresting but they would need to improve a lot in pairs and dance. And a team like Canada which is struggling continue to dive. Though other than ladies they have hope. The poor Canadian women what a disaster. unless Gabby regains her form they are in so much trouble. The men are interesting. Keegan would appear to be their best hope but he is most likely to retire before the olympics due to age and life. That leaves you Nam who has never developed as fast or as well - quads and speed and power, Roman and Gogolov whose great hope has come crashing to an end. He might be like Nam but then again Nam has not regained his Jr world status or even no. 5 in the world senior. All it takes is a few slip ups or good skates and who knows?
    Alison Schumacher is promising for Canada.

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    Bona Fide Member plushyfan's Avatar
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    I agree with the op, BoP! That is the most likely scenario

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    I’m not sure about more slots per country in each event, but maybe more substitutions? That means there will still be only one per country per event but more skaters can medal. The 2 substitutions per country rule can be restrictive.

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    in Emergency Backup Mode karne's Avatar
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    when it became apparent that Krasnopolski and his latest disposable partner, in combination with the utterly stupid ISU rules, had made sure Israel was going to be in the team event for Korea instead of us, I had a horrible foreboding that we had lost our only chance.

    Now I am certain of it.

    Two things I would like to see change in qualification for the team event for the next Olympics:

    1. The ISU JGPF must count. The fact that the JGP events, SGP events, and SGPF all counted but JGPF didn't was complete and utter lunacy.

    2. If a country's entry in a discipline is competing both Junior and Senior Worlds, they should be free to choose which event counts towards the ranking points. The fact that Katia and Harley would have been better off skipping Senior Worlds is just stupid. Of course, appropriate caveats must be attached; that this rule is only to count for countries who only have one skater/pair/couple who can compete.

  19. #19
    Bona Fide Member yume's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    The Team event, considered a bit of a farce by many observers thus far, but an Olympic medal event nonetheless.
    It's a joke. An unfair way to give medals. You can call yourself an olympic medalist because you have strong teammates. Not because you're strong enough to win that medal by yourself. While others who don't have strong teammates but can beat you night and day can finish without a medal or won't be called "two-time" medalists.
    Skaters can't chose their teammates. It's something out of their hands. They have 0 choice. The result doesn't depend on them (at least by 90%) like in the individual competition. It's unfair to win or not win a medal for something on which you don't have any influence.
    And the intellectual dishonesty of some skaters who have olympic medalist on their SM or in advertisements, without the word "team", is infuriating.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post

    1. The Long Program should be worth more. It's always been the more important and higher scoring event, so why is it worth the same amount of points as the Short Program (and actually worth relatively less points right now, because of less teams competing in the LP)? Factoring the LP placements at 1.5 or 2 points instead of 1 point would make far more sense.
    I don't see the issue. Both programs should worth the same imo.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    2. Allow 8 teams to progress to the LP portion of the competition. It doesn't feel right to only have 5 teams competing for a medal.
    I agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    3. Allow 6 competition slots per country for both the SP and LP, meaning that countries need to double-up in two of the events, which rewards teams who have depth in multiple disciplines, while allowing for variety. Russia would most likely double-up in Ladies and Pairs (and use all 3 Ladies across the SP+LP; someone who doesn't have a 3Axel would sit the SP, but could be the better LP skater because of Quads). USA would likely double-up Dance and Men. China would likely double-up in Pairs and Men. Japan and South Korea would double-up in the Singles disciplines.
    I don't know if i understand this correctly, but i would be more favorable to constrain each country to make compete two skaters per discipline. One for SP and another for LP. This will show real depth.
    But this will probably reduce the number of countries qualified.

    With the current rules my prediction is this:

    1. Russia : podium contenders in ladies, pairs and ice dance. Ok men.
    2. USA: Podium contenders in men and ice dance, ok ladies. Weak pairs.
    3. China: Boyang will have to find a way to step-up his game and i think he will. Fed will make sure. S/H the strongest in pairs now. They won't finish last in ice dance thanks to Wang/Liu. Hyongyi Chen had to start to fully rotates to be a top 10 worthy skater.
    So podium contenders in men and pairs. Weak in ladies and ice dance (but better potential than some countries).
    4. Canada: No podium contenders now. But fed can maybe do a better politicking for G/P and Daleman can maybe come back from wherever she went. A miracle can happen in pairs. Men can become more consistents.
    5. Italy: Interesting men and ice dance. But unless Kostner comes back with a quad as she said she wants and that pairs rise, i don't see Italy finishing higher.

    Edit: I forgot Japan and France. Strong ladies and men. In need of a pair. Two ice dance couples. Singles can place well enough to reduce the gap made by the likely last places of pairs and ice dance.
    J/C won't comeback. P/C and Aymoz are the hopes. No hope in ladies and pairs.
    So:
    1. Russia
    2. USA
    3. China
    4. Japan
    5. Canada
    6. France
    7. Italy
    8.Georgia.

  20. #20
    Bona Fide Member macy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yume View Post
    It's a joke. An unfair way to give medals. You can call yourself an olympic medalist because you have strong teammates. Not because you're strong enough to win that medal by yourself. While others who don't have strong teammates but can beat you night and day can finish without a medal or won't be called "two-time" medalists.
    Skaters can't chose their teammates. It's something out of their hands. They have 0 choice. The result doesn't depend on them (at least by 90%) like in the individual competition. It's unfair to win or not win a medal for something on which you don't have any influence.
    And the intellectual dishonesty of some skaters who have olympic medalist on their SM or in advertisements, without the word "team", is infuriating.
    wow.

    would you say the same about gymnastics?

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