Michelle will not win Worlds

Since you RUINED our record setting attempt....

Mathman said:

Does Tara have a boyfriend?

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I will now have to reveal my Big Secret about the Personal Lives of skaters. I have it on good authority that Tara prefers Purple People Eating Space Aliens to mere Ordinary Mortal Boyfriends.

Now back on topic.....thanks for the links. I'm so behind the times.

DG

Yes...thanks for the practice report....Is it me, or are there way fewer practice reports, interviews, etc. leading up to this year's worlds??? I feel starved for information!

Tara will appear in 3/7 Monday's episode of still standing 8 p ET

DoggyGirl said:

JOE - we're out to set a world record on this thread. Think we can do it??? :agree:

DG

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Ain't gonna happen. Tara got into the act. On the long Sasha book thread, just about every skater got into the act

I think there should be an award for a thread that gets 5 pages and keeps to the topic

Joe

I would hate to see her go to worlds and not come home with anything. It seems to me she is capable enough to do it and accustom herselfr to COP's. The anticipation is killing me.

Kathy said:

Doggygirl...There is a first hand report of Michelle's practice now at MKF in spoilers. The reporter is known for accuracy and is only giving a brief report. Saying that Michelle looks "solid." Also said she saw possible new fw into the flip in the short and that MK was practicing 2 3/3s and 2 3/2s, with the loop as the ending to one of the combo's - no word on how successful she was with them.

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Here is exactly what was said about her footwork into 3flip:"her sp...no changes, just hitting all the required elements with ease...she then did several set ups into the 3flip separately w/o the music...landed 3 of 4 attempts; then her FW sequence separately." I think that anyone reading this as "possible new fw" might be misinterpreting that. Saying that someone "did several set ups into the 3flip" to me means just that -- she did several, not that she did several DIFFERENT setups. Of course, I guess I'm the one who could be misinterpreting things, but saying that there were "no changes" in the SP seems to me to be just that -- no changes.

Joesitz said:

Ain't gonna happen. Tara got into the act. On the long Sasha book thread, just about every skater got into the act

I think there should be an award for a thread that gets 5 pages and keeps to the topic

Joe

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Yeah, well, at first I blamed Mathman for messing up our World Record Attempt. But now I'm just blaming Tara. It's not Mathman's fault that she dates Purple People Eating Space Aliens.

But we will gratefully accept the Five Page Award anyway...

DG

Michelle Kwan will not win Worlds!!!

I think you are making early predictions. Do you believe in miracles? I do!!

diamond

GO MICHELLE GO!!!!!!

If Michelle wins, the detractors will say-"Of course she won. She wasn't as tired as the other competitors because she only competed a couple of times this season."

If Michelle lose, the same detractors will say-"Of course she lost. She didn't compete as much as the other competitors this season hence she didn't get CoP feedback first."

Win or Lose, there will be D-Day on the boards!

Irina might be faster on the ice than Michelle and probably get more ice coverage but Irina has more reststops than Michelle. Also, the fact that Bolero is not the type of music you can paste a reststop to.


Crizzy's top ten reason why Irina will win at Moscow:


1) Moscow

2) Comeback story

3) Illness story

4) Reputation

5) Pimping the Biellman for points

6) GPF/Euros champion

7) Beat the reigning Worlds Champion

8) No jet lag, no travel

9) More practice time on the stadium

10) Above all, Irina has MOMENTUM on her side.

But I hope that Michelle kick butt gold or no gold as long as she's on the podium. That will let her to stand one in good stead for next season.

Crizzy said:

If Michelle wins, the detractors will say-"Of course she won. She wasn't as tired as the other competitors because she only competed a couple of times this season."

If Michelle lose, the same detractors will say-"Of course she lost. She didn't compete as much as the other competitors this season hence she didn't get CoP feedback first."

Win or Lose, there will be D-Day on the boards!

Irina might be faster on the ice than Michelle and probably get more ice coverage but Irina has more reststops than Michelle. Also, the fact that Bolero is not the type of music you can paste a reststop to.


Crizzy's top ten reason why Irina will win at Moscow:


1) Moscow

2) Comeback story

3) Illness story

4) Reputation

5) Pimping the Biellman for points

6) GPF/Euros champion

7) Beat the reigning Worlds Champion

8) No jet lag, no travel

9) More practice time on the stadium

10) Above all, Irina has MOMENTUM on her side.

But I hope that Michelle kick butt gold or no gold as long as she's on the podium. That will let her to stand one in good stead for next season.

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Crizzy's sound of reasoning! :agree:

5) Pimping the Biellman for points

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Anyone know how many points she could rack up if she just velcroed hand to blade for the entire program? What's next Cohen doing her program in the BC or Charlotte position? I guess the best we can hope for are modest costumes?

oh, the articles are starting to come....

http://us.f418.mail.yahoo.com/ym/login?.rand=8u232gv6sml0f


we'll see how kwan fares very, very soon. in less than 2 weeks. i'm curious myself. i have no idea really. some say she's done obviously. what i do know though is that her long progrom 'bolero' will not help her any for sure. this is the one program that has not caught on to me out of all of her programs... now that's unusual. didn't much like tosca either..but bolero is just plain unsuitable. many people seem to agree with me it seems. haven't heard much positive about her long this year. wish spartacus was her long... her short rocks!

gracefulswan said:

oh, the articles are starting to come....

http://us.f418.mail.yahoo.com/ym/login?.rand=8u232gv6sml0f


we'll see how kwan fares very, very soon. in less than 2 weeks. i'm curious myself. i have no idea really. some say she's done obviously. what i do know though is that her long progrom 'bolero' will not help her any for sure. this is the one program that has not caught on to me out of all of her programs... now that's unusual. didn't much like tosca either..but bolero is just plain unsuitable. many people seem to agree with me it seems. haven't heard much positive about her long this year. wish spartacus was her long... her short rocks!

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I think I'm one of the few that actually like bolero but when she skates it well, and here I'm not talking about jumps or any other technical element, but about interpretation. I have said it before, this is a type of music that because it is repetitive, that to keep the audience's attention, Michelle has to sell the program. She did not do that at Nationals, IMO, she seemed tense, hardly smile at the beginning of the program, and this is a sensual, flirtatious type of music, and she can do it, but at Nationals she seemed to be off. At the beginning of the season she was more relax, she played with the audience, and although the program was not up there in the technical part yet, it was more enjoyable. If she wants the program to rock, she has to put everything in the interpretation, imo.

Gracefulswan, was your link supposed to be to an article about Michelle and Worlds? All I got was an invitation to sign up for a Yahoo email account.(?)

About Bolero, for some reason Michelle got into the spirit of the piece only once in three tries. That was the season opener at the Campbell's event. Marred only by a fall on the closing footwork, that performance did give a hint of the program's potential.

Under CoP judging, it seems possible that a skater can win without giving a knock-em-dead emotional and artistic effort. You get the same number of points for a well-executed triple Lutz whether you are into your music or not.

As to the component scores, it remains to be seen how the judges will use them in determining the winners.

Mathman

Coming in on the end of this thread, I'll just say that I'm hoping Michelle will do well at Worlds, and I certainly believe she *can* do well.

Michelle has so much experience at Worlds that I'm sure she'll be able to adjust to skating in Moscow. I agree it's not as favorable to her as skating in the States, where she has such an incredible fan base, but she can certainly do it.

I personally feel Michelle's main challenge is the qualifying round. She's in a very tough group (facing both Shizuka *and* Irina, as well as Fumie), and she really needs to go for it strongly. The last few years, she's skated pretty conservatively in qualifying, as if she were nervous or not taking it seriously, and she needs to break out of that and really do well this time--especially because the ISU is ticked off at her right now for skipping the Grand Prix. My feeling is that she's going into Worlds with a slight disadvantage because of that political issue, so that makes it doubly important for her to go out there in qualifying and skate big. To really set herself up, it would be nice to see her beat either Shiz or Irina or both in QR. That would give her some momentum going into the next 2 phases of the competition.

I think if she does well in qualifying, she'll be well positioned to make the podium and possibly win. I'm not worried about the short program. Michelle is strong in the short; she rarely makes major mistakes there. If she comes out of qualifying well, I think she'll be top three in the short, and could win it.

I also like her chances in the long program. The main questions there are how important it will be to have a triple/triple and whether she can be with the music and really skate full out. Since we haven't seen a triple/triple from her all season, I'm not expecting one at Worlds. And I think she can win without it, but she must at all costs skate with emotion and land at least 6 triples. And also, hope that no one has a performance like Shizuka's last year, because if they do, then her lack of a triple/triple would probably ruin her chances to win.

My intuition, and her record so far this year, makes me feel like Michelle will skate very well, but not great, at Worlds, and will probably win silver this time.

But, last year, I was completely off with my Worlds predictions (only got one or two placements right out of the top 15!), so this is just purely a hunch, and is most likely wrong!!

sorry guys... but here's the link. it's mostly about the new CoPs.. but has a nice pic of kwan's new spin, LOL.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/other_sports/11079569.htm

On Pfenning...

While I think some of his concerns are valid, he really needs to think about what he says to the press. Comments like this one:

"Added Pfenning: ``They'll probably be fixing it on the night of the Olympics in Turin. And that is sort of scary.'' end quote from article

Are not only speculative, but make him sound like sour grapes. For someone of his stature to have a real impact, he needs to discuss the judging topic using facts and logic, not emotional rants.

That is a cool pic of MK!

DG

Doggygirl said:

While I think some of his concerns are valid, he really needs to think about what he says to the press. Comments like this one:

"Added Pfenning: ``They'll probably be fixing it on the night of the Olympics in Turin. And that is sort of scary.'' end quote from article

Are not only speculative, but make him sound like sour grapes. For someone of his stature to have a real impact, he needs to discuss the judging topic using facts and logic, not emotional rants.

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Well, I think his comment about "fixing it the night of the Olympics" could be scarily accurate -- especially considering the recent 0.25 mark that the secret computer allowed for Kimmie Meissner at Jr. Worlds (and the dozen and a half other errors that have been documented during the GP season). We can all hope that such things are fixed before Turin, but I don't think it's unreasonable to be concerned that they won't be addressed. I suspect that if a similar situation would arise with the COP system or computer next week in Moscow -- especially if it involves a high-ranking skater -- there might be more immediate action. If not, it seems to be an attitude of "accidents/mistakes will happen" on the part of the ISU.

The judges know that if they enter a wrong value (0.25) it will be seen as a 'mistake'. So if a couple of judges just happen to make that 'mistake' on a medal candidate that keeps the competitor off the podium, they know they will get away with it. Skater "A" who gets two zeros instead of 8s could lose enough points to fall behind Skate "B".

Crizzy said:

Crizzy's top ten reason why Irina will win at Moscow:
1) Moscow

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I'm not sure that skating in Moscow will be a huge advantage for Irina. It will help her that she does not have to travel and deal with jet lag, but I don't know how much of a boost she will get from the crowd. I remember at Cup of Russia Terry Gannon commented that the crowd went crazy for Plushenko, but Irina only got polite applause. Irina has never been one to reach out and connect with the audience, so she is not really a crowd favorite even in her home country.