Ladies - Free Program - Notes

Fossi said:

Yay for Emily Hughes! Another of the AWESOME Hughes girls getting the respect they deserve from International judges. I suspect Emily will have the same fights Sarah did. She basically got passed over at US Nationals, but the International judges scored her much better. Props Emily. You will shine in the future, just like Sarah. Never, ever, ever count out the Hughes girls!

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I figured you would like this result, Fossi, LOL.

Is Mao THAT good?

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Maybe Mao will be the next Sarah Hughes! I mean the next Emily Hughes. Assuming Emily wins in Torino, that will set Mao up for 2010! Or does Emily have a younger sister?

MM:agree:

I watched Mao Asada on CBC today. She was unbeliveable. She is the youngest girl ever to do a triple axel. Paul and Barb said that if she skated against any of the senior ladies at worlds, she would beat them; I agree with them also. She can out jump and out skate any of the senior girls, most of them can't do a triple triple and she even did a perfect triple axel. The senior ladies have a lot to be scared of with the young skaters, if they don't up the ante, they are going to be blown right out of the water if they don't retire.

Hooray for Emily Hughes. Once again there vvwill be huge fight for those spots on the US Olympic team next year.

millie said:

Paul and Barb said that if she skated against any of the senior ladies at worlds, she would beat them;

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Barb and Paul did NOT say this. They said that her skate could challenge and be in the last group at senior Worlds.

I havn't had the priveledge of watching Mao skate but her dress is absolutely gorgeous!

Lucy25 said:

Jumps, yes. Mao's jumps are technically more difficult than anyone's out there, not just Michelle's.
Spins, maybe. Mao is very flexible and can get into more positions. She is no faster than Michelle and Michelle's spins are more centered. Mao's leg position (in the traditional position) on her layback is terrible
Steps, absolutely not. Michelle wins hands down here. As do all the other top Ladies.

Mao is an incredible talent, but let's not get carried away just yet. Keep in mind that she did not even win Japanese Nationals this year, she was third.

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Do you think that if Michelle and Mao skated together in a competition together that the judges would give Michelle higher marks than Mao? With the triple triples and the triple axel that Mao has, I think she would beat Michelle by a long shot. Like I said in a previ ous thread that the senior ladies are doing the same old same old hoping to win on reputation alone. If the senior ladies don't up their ante, they are going to be left behind by the younger skaters.

Long Shot????

millie said:

Do you think that if Michelle and Mao skated together in a competition together that the judges would give Michelle higher marks than Mao? With the triple triples and the triple axel that Mao has, I think she would beat Michelle by a long shot. Like I said in a previ ous thread that the senior ladies are doing the same old same old hoping to win on reputation alone. If the senior ladies don't up their ante, they are going to be left behind by the younger skaters.

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I'm not sure what you're basing that on (the "long shot" part). I would prefer to use a more relevant example since Michelle has never skated under COP, so we don't really know how she would have done, or how her program may or may not be changed for COP at Worlds.

So to me anyway, it's more relevant to look at how Mao's scores stacked up with the top ladies who have been judged under COP this year. Aside from the obvious disclaimers (different judging panels, etc.) we also need to consider that there is one less non-jump element in the Jr. program (When I looked at Irina's LP content from COR, Mao did one less spin at Jr. World's).

Mao's TES score just for jump elements was 47.62. This would have ranked her second in terms of high LP jump element score for the year behind Miki Ando who scored 48.2 for jump TES elements at NHK.

Mao's non-jump TES score was 15.11. That would put her 6th in terms of "best LP's this year, however there is one less element. Not sure which element she will add for Sr.'s, and what the value will be so it's pure speculation. I'm guessing maybe she would be in the top 4 or so. Behind Irina, Fumie, Shiz in this regard.

Mao's PCS score was 56.4. This would have put her 5th compared to the top LP programs and their PCS score this year behind Shiz, Irina, Fumie and Miki.

Assuming we can draw any conclusions at all from this (for the reasons already stated) I think it might be fair to say that even at her young age, Mao would be competitive among the top ranks IF she were age eligible, which she is not. But I think it's NOT a reasonable conclusion to say she would "blow Michelle (or the other top ladies mentioned) away" just based on the facts we have in hand.

Mao has already made an incredible accomplishment just to get into this league in terms of scoring. I guess we will all have to wait another year to see what we shall see when she is age eligible for seniors. I hope the puperty monster doesn't get her, but we won't know that one way or the other for awhile yet.

DG

Millie, now you've got my curiosity up. How do you think Mao Asada would do against Joanne Rochette and Cynthia Phaneuf?

Mathman

Mathman said:

Millie, now you've got my curiosity up. How do you think Mao Asada would do against Joanne Rochette and Cynthia Phaneuf?

Mathman

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Matman, Mao Asada score was 179.20--They said that this was a new bench mark. I went back through the post to see what Joanne and Cynthia scores were but I couldn't find them. Same goes to all the skaters, if they want to be lazy and not try to up their ante and do the same old same old, I think the young skaters will out jump and out skate them. That goes for all the senior ladies.

I just looked up Joannie's and Cynthia's scores at the Canadian Championship. Rochette skated the performance of a lifetime and scored at total of 183.93.

Phaneuf had some problems in the long and finished with 147.95 total.

In the 2003 Grand Prix season Sasha Cohen got three straight 197s in three Grand Prix performances.

It's kind of hard to compare these numbers, since there were changes -- not so much in the stated rules, but in how the judges interpreted them -- after 2003. And the judges may judge the juniors by different standards thatn the seniors, especially in the presentation marks (component scores). It is hard for me to imagine that any junior skater, however excellent, can legitimately aspire to the aristic maturity of a skater like Michelle Kwan.

Still, the bottom line -- Mao definitely seems to be in the mix with the top skaters in the world.

Mathman

Ziggy said:

And I am someone who believe that huge pressure, either mental or physical shouldn't be placed on young people. Having a light and short body of a child (like Lipinski, for example) makes it easier for you to jump.

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Whether or not pressure is put on young people is the responsibility of their parents, not the ISU. There are probably millions of little league players who get as much pressure from their parents to excel in their little baseball league as Mao does to win major titles, and many of them are a lot younger than she is. This happens in all levels of sport, not just the Olympics level. If you were to take your argument to its logical conclusion, no child under 16 should play any sport in which he or she is subject to any pressure to win. Do you think none of those little 12 year old boys in the little league world series are under a ridiculous amount of pressure to win the title? Probably lots of them are.

And as for the pressure--what if Mao felt no pressure at all in the Olympics? What if her parents, coach, and federation all just wanted her to go and have a great time? Would you change your opinion?

I also don't get your argument about body size. So what if a smaller body makes it easier to jump? If that's the case, that is an argument against your own opinion. All sports have an optimal body type, and an optimal age window for peak performance. If you don't want skaters at the Olympics while they are at their peak, that's like saying men shouldn't play professional football until they get older, gain weight, and slow down. You wouldn't want the younger, fitter, faster guys taking advantage of the old goats.

If Michelle and Mao were to compete against each other-

I believe under the 6.0 system Michelle would beat Mao hands down on her maturity, but under COP Mao could actually gain enough points to win.

While I like Mao's skating, I don't think she can beat the top seniors. I definitely don't think she's better than Miki Ando. And for all those crying about Mao remaining in juniors, I think juniors is where she and Kimmy need to be. Mao has nice jumps but what really bothers me is the cheats on most of her jumps. The cheats aren't big enough to downgrade the jump but they definitely impede the flowout from the jump. As for Mao's triple axel, it's a lot better than Kimmie's but she still has a cheat on the jump and it's not exactly Tonya Harding or Midori Ito quality (not in a long shot).

Presentation wise Mao and Yu Na are absolutely precious and Mao really reminds me a lot of Naomi Nari Nam. I just hope the Japanese federation doesn't suck out whatever joy Mao takes in her skating by putting too much pressure on her.

Unbelievable program done by Mao!?

However, I still think she needs to qualify for the Japanese team on her own.
She does skate well technically, but Fugumi or Kostner carry much better speed than her, and when they are on, they are better jumpers and faster spinners too. Ando and Arakawa can beat her hands down on technical scores as well, and Mao's perforance needs even more improvement too. I dont think she could be ranked in the top 10 region if she indeed goes to compete in Moscow. Joannie Rochette is also a better skater right now than Mao.

As for the age limiting issues, actually a few years back in Canada, there was some talks about Nicole Watt competing for Canada as a 14 year old. That was when Nicole had a lead over Jennifer Robinson, but then she fell to 2nd that year, and it was also funny that Jennifer qualifed for 2 spots pretty much every year except that year. Otherwise Nicole could ahve competed somehwere.
Though she didnt do too well iun GP tournaments she was assigned.

Why not compare Mao to Irina? Irina is CoP queen this year in senior internatinal level so far. And both of them have CoP points there to compare.

Then after worlds, lets see how Mao's CoP points compares up to Sasha and Michelle. And how Sasha and Michelle's points compare to Irina and Joanie?

Hi Mzheng..

I made an attempt to do just that (compare Mao's scores to the other top senior ladies who have been judged under COP this year) earlier in this thread.

I will insert my standard disclaimer again that these comps involve different judging panels, etc. so it's not "gospel." Also, the juniors have one less element in the LP, and as Mathman pointed out, who knows if the judges are really trying to apply the standards in the same way at the junior level v. the senior level.

It's problematic to figure out how Michelle might fare under COP compared to the other Senior ladies since she's not been judged under the new system. IMO, it's really not possible to figure out how to compare Michelle's "possible" scores to a Junior when there is no data to look at.

EDITED TO ADD: I did not review any specific national championships. Only the GP series, Euros and 4CC.

DG

I don't remember the exact scores, but in the Japanese championship Ando won with a total in the 180s. I think she did a triple Axel and a triple Lutz/triple toe/double loop. But her component scores weren't great.

Mao was second (in the 170s, I believe) and Fumie third. Arakawa won the short but then dropped out because of blisters on her feet.

Anyway, this was a senior competition against high-level competition, and Mao held her own. I think her component scores were higher than Ando's, and her tech scores were much higher than Suguri's.

Somebody (Miki_tan?) can correct me if this is wrong.

Mathman

http://www.skatingjapan.jp/National/2004-2005/Figure/AllJapan/E/index.htm
73rd National Figure Skating Championships
Dec.24-26, 2004

Ladies - - Final Results
1. Miki ANDO Chukyo Senior High School 3 1 172.47
2. Mao ASADA Grand Prix Tokai Club 4 2 166.82
3. Fumie SUGURI DYNACITY 2 3 166.54

Short Program Results
1 Shizuka ARAKAWA Prince Hotel 67.68 36.51 31.17
2 Fumie SUGURI DYNACITY 65.18 35.36 29.82
3 Miki ANDO Chukyo Senior High School 63.23 34.37 28.86
4 Mao ASADA Grand Prix Tokai Club 60.46 32.90 27.56

Free Skating Results
1 Miki ANDO Chukyo Senior High School 109.24 54.34 55.90
2 Mao ASADA Grand Prix Tokai Club 106.36 50.56 55.80
3 Fumie SUGURI DYNACITY 101.36 45.72 57.64

Ando didn't attempt 3A.

Thank you, Miki_tan. Japan certainly has the most competitive field in ladies skating. Any of the top six or so are capable of winning on any given day.

Did Mai Asada skate?

Mathman

Mathman said:

Did Mai Asada skate?

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Just click the link in previous post, then you can get whole results