Ladies - Qualifying A - Comments

Mathman said:

But the bigger concern is that it looks like Michelle just laid an egg on this one. Not only the two missed jumps, but according to Rosaleen her spins were off. too, and the whole program just didn't click. It takes three good skates to win a world championship.

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Some of Michelle's practice reports said the was practicing a 3s2l, so that may have thrown her off going into the 3s as Rosaleen stated. I agree that Michelle may have an injury that is keeping her from trying the 3l, and I don't know why she was attempting 2 3flips and 2 3 lutzes which would prevent her from doing her 3t3t that she was confirmed to be landing in practice this week. THe first 3f is where she was reported to be attempting her 3-3. Something is strange about the way she keeps moving the jumps around in Bolero

brad640 said:

Some of Michelle's practice reports said the was practicing a 3s2l, so that may have thrown her off going into the 3s as Rosaleen stated. I agree that Michelle may have an injury that is keeping her from trying the 3l, and I don't know why she was attempting 2 3flips and 2 3 lutzes which would prevent her from doing her 3t3t that she was confirmed to be landing in practice this week. THe first 3f is where she was reported to be attempting her 3-3. Something is strange about the way she keeps moving the jumps around in Bolero

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I'm confused! wasn't one of the lutzes in combo? was the 2flip supposed to be 3flip in combo with something else? I was reading Rosaleen'sreport but how many jumps did Michelle complete? I got confused because I thought some of those were sequence... could someone please explain?

Mathman said:

But the bigger concern is that it looks like Michelle just laid an egg on this one. Not only the two missed jumps, but according to Rosaleen her spins were off. too, and the whole program just didn't click. It takes three good skates to win a world championship.

Fortunately, her Spartacus short program rocks. She will have a good chance to pull herself up to podium chances tomorrow night. She's still the Kween.
Mathman

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I haven't been crazy about Bolero all season. It seems the type of music to me that the skater has to totally hold up - the music doesn't thelp the skater. So...throw a couple mistakes in the mix, or just being a little "off" and kaplooey. It will also be interesting to see what levels her spins and footwork were called at. Rosaleen mentioned that Sasha's were all level 2. At COR (Irina's pb this year) she had 3 level 2's and 3 level 3's. I can't WAIT to see the detailed score sheets.

I hope that Joesitz and Rosaleen have some time to fill us in on their first hand thoughts about the way things are turning out. Mean time, YEAH FUMIE!! And you are right MM - I think Michelle will fare better in the SP. And as Buttle demonstrated yesterday, it's not the kiss of death it used to be ending up in the second to last warmup.

This is shaping up to be interesting, to say the least.

DG

Oh my, oh my. Michelle had a disastrous skate, so she deservedly scored low. She is a comeback queen so I would expect her to deliver in the later rounds.

That said, seeing how Irina was scored, the best Michelle could probably get with her current LP (unless Irina has a complete meltdown) is silver. Now I'm not implying Irina was or will be held up, nobody should unless they have actually seen the competition. I just feel Irina has been able to deliver the goods that the COP rewards, very smart of her and her coach and hey this is sport, if others still haven't figured out how to milk the COP to the best they can, then too bad for them (Michelle included), just too bad.

If Michelle can't win this year, I so want Irina to win not out of sympathy but out of huge respect for this great athlete. Nevermind, knowing Michelle's character, she'll be back next season to kick major asses, if she doesn't win this year.

apache88 said:

That said, seeing how Irina was scored, the best Michelle could probably get with her current LP (unless Irina has a complete meltdown) is silver. Now I'm not implying Irina was or will be held up, nobody should unless they have actually seen the competition. I just feel Irina has been able to deliver the goods that the COP rewards, very smart of her and her coach and hey this is sport, if others still haven't figured out how to milk the COP to the best they can, then too bad for them (Michelle included), just too bad.

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Very well put IMO. This is a sport, and using the rules to one's advantage is the way to win the game as Irina has shown us this year. I think there are a number of other skaters that are also being rewarded for what they are doing out there regardless of their history this year or in previous years. That's all good too IMO. At least the skaters that put down good technical content are being rewarded even if many of us still have a few ??? about the PCS side of things. I think that's a huge improvement.

DG

Michelle is in 7th place! What does this mean going into the short? I guess she won't be skating in the final six.

millie said:

Michelle is in 7th place! What does this mean going into the short? I guess she won't be skating in the final six.

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I'm not sure, don't they make some sort of draw for the short? or is it the top six after qualis go into the final group for the short?

SP Groups...

The top 3 from each group go into the last SP warm up group, and so on. So MK will be in the second to last group. 25% of the QR score counts toward the total event score.

They draw to determine skate order within the groups - at least I think I've got that right!! Should be very interesting!

DG

Doggygirl said:

The top 3 from each group go into the last SP warm up group, and so on. So MK will be in the second to last group. 25% of the QR score counts toward the total event score.

They draw to determine skate order within the groups - at least I think I've got that right!! Should be very interesting!

DG

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right you are! this will be a must see with popcorn lol!

Doesn't look to me like anyone skated particularly well in the qualifying - including Slutskaya. This makes me think they're getting ready to hand this thing to Irina on a golden platter. She already has a lead that's fairly substantial over everyone but Cohen, basically. The other qualifying group was marked harder, I think, though I'm perfectly willing to swallow my words once I've actually seen it. However looking at Rosaleen's reports and the scores it looks as if the judges for Qual. B were tougher. Take Rochette and Phaneuf - just for example. Rochette skated not well, but OK. One fall and a big popped jump, while Phaneuf fell three times, I think it was - yet they're only two points apart? But Phaneuf was in Qual. A, while Rochette hit the harder B judges. I'm still really hoping for Rochette to put down a great short and long and pull herself into medal contention - eminently possible, as we saw after the mens qualifying. Like them, the ladies are all bunched together, with very similar scores.

Seems like nobody skated extremely well. This is good for Michelle. She still has room to move up. You never know.
A fall by any lady in the short program will take you out of the top 3.

With Michell in what, 7th place and being 4.78 (I think) points behind Slute after the qualifyings, I can't decide if its as bad as we/I think.

Yes, 7th place is uncharachteristic of Kwan and under the old scoring system, I'd say that standing on the Podium much less winning was not possble but the points carry over not the placement correct? so, if she's less than 5 points behind Slute after the qualifying, would it not be reasonable to think she could make it up by the end of the SP much less the LP?...

I'm not great with the new scoring system but with jumps earning 12 + points ect., I'd think the between her jumps, spins and in-betweens, she could make it up.....

Any thoughts?

Since you asked... Here is my opinion...

dwiggin3 said:

With Michell in what, 7th place and being 4.78 (I think) points behind Slute after the qualifyings, I can't decide if its as bad as we/I think.

Yes, 7th place is uncharachteristic of Kwan and under the old scoring system, I'd say that standing on the Podium much less winning was not possble but the points carry over not the placement correct? so, if she's less than 5 points behind Slute after the qualifying, would it not be reasonable to think she could make it up by the end of the SP much less the LP?...

I'm not great with the new scoring system but with jumps earning 12 + points ect., I'd think the between her jumps, spins and in-betweens, she could make it up.....

Any thoughts?

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I think it's flawed to compare Michelle's planned jump content to other people's actual jump content in the QR. I'm guessing it's very rare for any skater to execute their jump plan flawlessly, and I don't think any of the top contenders did that today. (from the sound of their interviews anyway)

Now it's always possible that a given skater, MK in this instance, could skate an essentially flawless jump content program to everyone else making mistakes. (Sarah, Tara) But I don't think that's something a skater can count on. As one example, I've never heard that MK was planning 3 jump combos or combo's / sequences, and several people actually executed those today, even though they might not have completed every jump as planned. So I'm sort of left thinking that MK's plan might not be up to the other top skater's plans, very generally speaking.

As far as the rest of the technical content, I can't imagine how one could upgrade a program in the midst of a competition like World's. (i.e. upgrade an element from level 1 to level 2 or 3) I'm sure that's possible, I'm just thinking it would be very challenging. Unless MK also made mistakes on those elements where doing them as planned would breed a different result in the calling of the level.

So...I don't think a less than 5 point spread is insurmountable under certain circumstances. But I think Irina's technical content is proven and secure (at least in terms of the plan and technical calling) over numerous competitions. Unless she does a complete Zamboni in the SP and or LP, I'm not convinced MK can catch up without help from Irina.

I might have more confidence in Sasha's chances as she has at least had experience with program elements being graded under CoP. And while it sounds like Sasha had all level 2 non-jump elements today to a probably 1/2 level 2 and 1/2 level 3 jump elements for Irina, that's a lot closer in terms of plan than MK's 1/2 level 1 and 1/2 level 2. At least for the LP. Who knows about the SP. I actually think MK might fare better in the SP. At any rate Sasha, for the USA, STAY ON YOUR FEET!!!!

Just my thoughts...

DG

Nicly written!..

I agree with you "on paper"....but I think we all know that MK is able to do better than what was reported she did (granted, the entire discussion is based on most of us, if not all of us, never seeing the ladies skate) and that she has taken less than great programs and turned them around...or at least been able to turn the "switch" on if she's started a compitition off less that ideally....

I'm also not convinced that she didn't make some errors on the in-betweens to recive such low marks.....but then again, this Bolero program has been criticized as lacking artistry and I was not impressed with what I saw in Portland.....

Given what has happend and what I think I understand about COP, I think a silver medal is still within reach. I think a gold is less likly unless Slute really falls apart and even then, she could still win....ala Europeans.....

We'll all just have to wait and see..... We don't get coverate untill tormoroww night....

Kwan's Spartacus program was great at Nationals, but empty by COP standards. It might be a risk for her to upgrade any elements in her SP and better if she just skates the program like she did at Nationals and hope that the performance will sway the judges in the PCS marks.

The only thing I am worried about with Irina is that this is a very gruelling competition, with three programs in five days under pressure-packed conditions. In both the Russian nationals and Europeans she seemed to tire as the competion progressed. I hope she stays on top of her medical challenges for the remainder of the week.

Mathman

Thank you Dwiggin...

dwiggin3 said:

Nicly written!..

I agree with you "on paper"....but I think we all know that MK is able to do better than what was reported she did (granted, the entire discussion is based on most of us, if not all of us, never seeing the ladies skate) and that she has taken less than great programs and turned them around...or at least been able to turn the "switch" on if she's started a compitition off less that ideally....

I'm also not convinced that she didn't make some errors on the in-betweens to recive such low marks.....but then again, this Bolero program has been criticized as lacking artistry and I was not impressed with what I saw in Portland.....

Given what has happend and what I think I understand about COP, I think a silver medal is still within reach. I think a gold is less likly unless Slute really falls apart and even then, she could still win....ala Europeans.....

We'll all just have to wait and see..... We don't get coverate untill tormoroww night....

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And ITA with all of your points. It's been refreshing to even be able to discuss anything related to MK without the Board Errupting!! And I do respect her accomplishments. She's also got that certain X-factor that NO skater can plan or buy...which goes to your point. There is a LOT that can still happen. I am SO hoping that ESPN (are you in the states??) broadcasts a little bit about the QR tomorrow night.

As for the Ladies SP, I will be tuned in to the Russian on-line thing at 4AM on Friday.

DG

CoP Experts: Please help the lost & confused

Alright CoP experts... Please help me understand what is going on with the QR scores...

This morning I read that Michelle was like 20 points behind Irina. Now she's 5, but sitting in 7th place overall. I assume this is based on the QR counting for 1/4th of the total score. Is this correct?

Last year, under 6.0 & QR counting for a lot more, she was in 6th place (I think) going into the SP & only moved up to 5th because of the timing issue and finished 3rd.

If the above is true, what are her realistic chances of finishing on the podium? Have the judges been marking similiar scores for the LP & QR? Is she penalized more for doubling jumps vs. falling on a jump? (the one thing I hate the most about CoP) With the scores relativly close what needs to happen?

I know this is rambled but I'm so confused & cannot get a straight answer anywhere because on the other sites its all: "The Kween is Dead, Long Live the Queen" and "That's ok, we'll just eat chicken & she'll win the whole thing!"

I don't have that kind of patience to sort through all the propaganda right now. I just want to understand what's going on.

Thanks,

Kwanford Wife

Doggygirl said:

It's been refreshing to even be able to discuss anything related to MK without the Board Errupting!!

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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/250px-Volcano_q.jpg

That's just because us Kwanies are temporarily stunned. But don't worry, we'll be back for the SP.

Hi, KwanfordWife. I'm not an expert, but, yes you are right about the factor of 1/4 accounting to the differnce between the 20 points and the 5 points. Irina got 119 actual points to Michelle's 99. But the points that are carried over is only 25% of this.

In the short program the weight is .50 for the component scores, while the tech scores are also about half of the tech scores for the LP just because skaters do more in the LP. (OK, for the nit-pickers: For ladies the component scores are multiplied by .8 for the short and by 1.6 for the long. This is to try to keep them roughly equivalent overall to the tech scores. For the men, with higher tech scores, the factors are 1.0 and 2.0. But anyway, what's important are the ratios: the component scores for the SP count half as much as for the LP, and the total qualifying scores, both component and (factored) component scores count 1/4 as much as for the LP.)

This makes the qualifying round count for about 1/7 (14%) of the total score, with the SP counting about 2/7 (29%) and the LP 4/7 (57%).

I don't remember the exact percentages for the three parts last year, but it wasn't all that different. Except, of course, it was only the placements that were factored under ordinal judging, so it was harder to move up or down than it is under the new judging system.

About being penalized more for doubling than for falling, it seems to work out about the same. For instance if you complete the rotations for a triple Lutz, but then fall on the landing, you get a base mark of 6 points, with a -3 GOE and a -1 fall deduction, so you end up with 2.0 points. For a double Lutz the base mark is 1.9, so if you get a 0 GOE, that's about the same.

Can Michelle make the podium? Well, she is about 5 points behind Irina, so that is about the value of one jump. So I would say anything can happen. However, Irina is certainly in the driver's seat for now. Plus, to win, Michelle cannot just hope for Irina to mess up, because Michelle also has to catch up to Sasha, Fumie, Shizuka, Carolina, and Miki!

Mathman