Michelle was over-confident, IMHO

I have always thought it's wrong and very risky to participate in too few competitions because the athlete will lose a sense of the competition atmosphere. Especially when there's a completely new system in play, skipping competitions is a big no-no. The fact that she was quoted as saying she was mechanically thinking through the whole performance in the QR such as counting revolutions, consciously executing the moves ...etc indicates that she was trying to familiarize herself a little too late.

Because she still did very well in 2003-2004, she was willing to continue to take the risk. The healthy body she gets in return is a good bet after all. Cutting down on competitions is good for athletes who have been competing too long, but to totally skip competitions and not have themselves evaluated under the new system at all before the big one is a huge mistake. This gets me thinking that she became over-confident (not in a negative way), she probably didn't know she did. I'm not criticizing her for the choice she made. everyone makes an important choice in a certain stage of their lives and it's ok to make mistakes as long as they learn from them.

From a report by USFSA, Michelle was quoted “One change is huge in skating,” Kwan said. “I don't look back. I made a choice and I feel good. A lot of people came in here with injuries. I am fine 100 percent. It just didn't happen.”

That's my girl. Never regret, just move on.

In addition to not competing, earlier in the season Michelle showed a reluctance -- even a defiance -- fully to embrace the new scoring system. She made some comments to the effect that she regarded adapting her programs to milk the CoP as kind of a sell-out of her artistic integrity.

To me, there is something attractive about this kind of "arrogance." But I think that this stubbornness is still keeping her from jumping in with both feet.

Very interesting and insightful post, Apache. And to paraphrase Mathaman, "Not fully embracing the COP is keeping her from jumping in with both feet"--I love that analogy, both the content and the wording.

However, I thought Michelle's SP at Nationals was VERY strong. She did a lot of interesting and difficult things with different kinds of stroking and I am very curious to see if the judges reward her for that, which I think they should. Then there's also the finals. I can feel Michelle's competitive juices flowing full steam ahead as I write. I can feel her mind and heart developing a strategy to make the most of every moment of both her short and long programs. I sure ain't counting Michelle off the podium yet, including the top of it.

Rgirl

I can agree on this but, then again. She knows what is best for her body. She is older, her bones are more mature than the younger field. Just take a look at the mens skating. 3 years ago I was looking forward to another Yagudin & Plushenko showdown. But, Yags had to retire because of a bad hip. & Plushenko who knows what is going on with him. He hasn't been healthy in really in 3 years. It's his knees, it's his back & it's now always something with him. The skating events & the very growning demand of more jumps & more jumps & more jumps. Tara & her team in their obession with beating michelle kind of forced her too into early retirement( Hip surgery on 18 year old). Namoi Nari Nam. Another Beautiful skater with pure talent. What happen to her. Injuries.

I can agree with michelle on cutting back on the competition. She knows that her body can no longer take all those events that she used to do. But, I do agree that if she had done the 1st 2 events of the season. that would have given her more then enough time to finish off tweeking her programs & rest her body in between. From what I understood that she & her team did get judge or someone to look at her programs & tell her what she needed to do with them. Her Short Program is just wonderful. Though, I do really like her long Program. There is just not enough off it. That I think is where her problem is. Michelle I think just had a really bad skate. She hasn't had that for a very long time. Skating a program with that many errors. Yeah she has had a fall here & there in different programs. But, she would usually just make that 1 mistake. But, from what I have heard on her program. It was full of mistakes. Michelle herself stated that she was awful. & from some of the articles I read. All the ladies look like they were alseep. The thing is that. The entire group was not that great.

I Think that she still can make the Podium( & I think that she skates better when whe is coming from behind.) & I also think that this would be perfect for her going into the olympic season. Not being the current world champ & Underdog. Kind of relight the fire that she had in 2003 after the 2002 olympics.

You are never too old to learn a new lesson. & Michelle is learning hers. But, I have to agree with the wowman. She is an artist 1st. & not a jumping bean. She went from a Jumper to a real skater & doesn't want to return to being a jumper. Years ago when she was still a teen Michelle was going for the Triple axel. & other combinations. She would land then but enough for her to do them in competitions. & Then she hurt her back & her hips started to bother her. Need. examples. Yagudin, Plushenko, Tara, Namoi, Timmy, Honda, & these are just the top of the line skaters. It is not like she did not try to improve her technical part of skating. Her body screamed at her & she listened to it.

But, I think come next season. She will not be allowed to opt out of the season. Not, if she wants to go to the olympics. If I remember correctly, I think was some part of the new rules or something.

But, I think that she will come out fighting for the rest of the championship. But, Gold is out of the question & Silver is a very very very long shot.

The demands that skating is making on it's skaters & their bodies. It is killing it's own sport. Injuries forcing their top skaters to withdraw & or retire. I am all for improvement & Michelle is also probably. But, I think that she is not willing to risk her body & health in the process. I can't say that I blame her.

All I can say is ???

It seems that nerves got the best of Michelle yesterday, and someone who is over-confident would not fall apart like that, imo. From the reliable practice reports I've seen, she's been pretty good in practices and was in the warm-up as well, but I hardly think she was expecting them to just hand her a medal for showing up. (That would be over-confidence.) In her most recent interviews she has expressed her tentative approach to CoP. And as we've seen several times (SLC, being the most painful time), when Michelle is tentative the results are painful.

vixen62025 said:

All I can say is ???

It seems that nerves got the best of Michelle yesterday, and someone who is over-confident would not fall apart like that, imo. From the reliable practice reports I've seen, she's been pretty good in practices and was in the warm-up as well, but I hardly think she was expecting them to just hand her a medal for showing up. (That would be over-confidence.) In her most recent interviews she has expressed her tentative approach to CoP. And as we've seen several times (SLC, being the most painful time), when Michelle is tentative the results are painful.

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I totally agree... Like Mathman said yesterday, she had a bad skate. It happens.

She will be fine as long as she's pi##ed...
KW

Bolero is not a winning program... the music is monotonous(sp) and the program just doesn't carry much in teh way of energy...

and I'm not just saying this because I'm not a fan... compared to her SP at nationals Bolero didn't even hit the radar... it was DOA

vixen62025 said:

All I can say is ???

It seems that nerves got the best of Michelle yesterday, and someone who is over-confident would not fall apart like that, imo. From the reliable practice reports I've seen, she's been pretty good in practices and was in the warm-up as well, but I hardly think she was expecting them to just hand her a medal for showing up. (That would be over-confidence.) In her most recent interviews she has expressed her tentative approach to CoP. And as we've seen several times (SLC, being the most painful time), when Michelle is tentative the results are painful.

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Well said!!!!! :agree:

I find it hard to believe that anyone could possible interpret Michelle's statements and approach to cop as over-confidence. Michelle is more than aware that her competitive strategy for this season had it's risks. Debuting a cop friendly program at worlds with changes in jump layout and spins, after skating a 6.0 styled program for most of this season is a challenging thing to do. This did not allow Michelle sufficient time for her muscle memory to kick in automatically. I think that Michelle was just nervous and flustered trying to remember all the changes in her program. There are skaters who skated worse than Michelle, and they had a whole season of cop competitions.
Were they also over-confident, or did they just have a bad skate?

IMHO, her skate was so disasterous that it is impossible to assess the difference made by the COP and/or the failure to do the GP. I read somewhere that Kwan blew jumps that she has been landing all season long, and that if she had landed them, she would have been second or third in her QR; does anyone know if this is true?

she is more nervous when she is skates outside the states with good reason. shehas not skated in the gp series for 3 years a big mistake,but michell does better coming from behind . she is going to do well in the sp and lp.

vixen62025 said:

All I can say is ???

It seems that nerves got the best of Michelle yesterday, and someone who is over-confident would not fall apart like that, imo. From the reliable practice reports I've seen, she's been pretty good in practices and was in the warm-up as well, but I hardly think she was expecting them to just hand her a medal for showing up. (That would be over-confidence.) In her most recent interviews she has expressed her tentative approach to CoP. And as we've seen several times (SLC, being the most painful time), when Michelle is tentative the results are painful.

Click to expand...

I think you misintrpreted my thoughts. When I said she was over-confident, I meant before the Worlds, her pre-2005 Worlds plans. It can happen to great athletes. They might think they can overcome some tough situation but when it actually comes to the real part, oops. This is what I think happened to her because she gambled big time with the COP thing by debuting it at Worlds. Just my opinion.

But as I have said it's ok. It's better to have confidence than not have any at all. Life is full of learning experiences and she probably didn't foresee she would be so distracted by the COP thing. Anyway, like Mathman has said, this kind of arrogance is intriguing and attractive in a way. Only the Kween dares pull something like that.

Rgirl said:

Very interesting and insightful post, Apache. And to paraphrase Mathaman, "Not fully embracing the COP is keeping her from jumping in with both feet"--I love that analogy, both the content and the wording.

However, I thought Michelle's SP at Nationals was VERY strong. She did a lot of interesting and difficult things with different kinds of stroking and I am very curious to see if the judges reward her for that, which I think they should. Then there's also the finals. I can feel Michelle's competitive juices flowing full steam ahead as I write. I can feel her mind and heart developing a strategy to make the most of every moment of both her short and long programs. I sure ain't counting Michelle off the podium yet, including the top of it.

Rgirl

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Yeah, Michelle has proven she can come back, she has an uncanny ability to dump the past and move on very quickly. Look at 1998 Nagano, the incredible Fields Of Gold performance a day right after her huge heart breaking disappointing episode, that streaker's act last year, to name but 3 prime examples. Even if she screws up this year's worlds, I'm not affected like I was for 2 darn weeks when she failed to win the gold at SLC (I have grown so to speak , I suspect this whole Michelle thing has become a metaphor for my life). I expect her to be fully, completely prepared for the COP come next season. By the way, for someone from engineering school, I simply love the COP system.

attyfan said:

IMHO, her skate was so disasterous that it is impossible to assess the difference made by the COP and/or the failure to do the GP. I read somewhere that Kwan blew jumps that she has been landing all season long, and that if she had landed them, she would have been second or third in her QR; does anyone know if this is true?

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Yeah, She had no problem at Nationals. Her Short was perfect & she just popped her 2nd Lutz in the LP. Though at Nationals again with the Pressure of setting another skating record. She skated very tight & unemotional. & I too heard that Had she skated perfect. She would be in 4th or 3 place. I agree. Thinking too much while trying to skate is not a great thing to do. Another Lesson learned for michelle.