Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium?

I know somewhere out there is a direct Karen quote to that effect that Michelle wanted it more. I think that it was in the Bud Greenspan biography on Michelle.

I don't remember if Cohen skated after her. If so it may have caused her to implode on her wonderful Swan Lake program.

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She DID skate after Arakawa. In fact I don't remember if Arakawa skated first (in the group) or not. I think she did...

Red Dog said:

She DID skate after Arakawa. In fact I don't remember if Arakawa skated first (in the group) or not. I think she did...

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The order in the final group at Dortmund was:

19. Arakawa
20. Sebestyen
21. Cohen
22. Kwan
23. Ando
24. Kostner

slutskayafan21 said:

Who is the more likely champion if it is to come to that, Kostner, Phaneuf, or Ando? After this years Worlds I think most would have the same answer to that.

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IMHO it's not so clear. Yes Carolina did well at Worlds. But she finished 7th at Europeans (behind Slutskaya, Poykio, Liashenko, Sebestyen, Sokolova and Maniachenko), at Italian Nationals she managed only two triples, she didn't make the GP final (Ando and Phaneuf both did), and Ando and Phaneuf both beat her at Cup of Russia.

If this question had been asked last year everyone would have said Ando is far ahead of the field in the "Olympic teenager" race.

Can we substitute Rochette for Phaneuf? She'll be twenty just a couple of weeks before the Olys.

Mathman

brad640 said:

That is one thing that has always troubled me about Karen's departure. Was it really the Kwans who wanted to go for Michelle 100% or was it Frank, who coached both girls. Somehow, I think if Danny and Estalla thought both daughters had potential they would have found a way to make it work because they are both so devoted. I think Frank may have wanted to secure his position as MIchelle's coach and he didn't like having another skater requiring his resources, so Karen was the sacrificial lamb, much like Tim was booted for Evan's sake.

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Well Karen is really tall (5'7) and tall ladies tend to have trouble with the jumps. Karen was a lovely skater, much more graceful on the ice than her sister and very light and willowy. However the most difficult jump she had was a 3-flip. Michelle is a lot shorter and can jump better. In terms of being musical and lovely on the ice, Karen has it all over Michelle. In terms of athletic ability, Michelle has it all over Karen. Jumps count for a lot in skating and you can't compete at a top level internationally (at least out of the US) without a 3 lutz.

Karen Kwan made the Nationals broadcast the year that Nikodinov performed a wonderful Cinderella program choreographed by her then-coach Peter Oppegaard. (AN came in 4th [behind Bobek's Giselle] after landing every jump but the 3Lo.) I think that was in 1997. Corwin was on the broadcast, too, as well as a skater from NYC who performed to Don Quixote as a tribute to John Curry; her coaches had been affiliated with him, perhaps skating in his Company.

Karen Kwan was a very lyrical skater with long lines, but she didn't have the jump arsenal.

As I recall it, Sasha's Worlds 2004 "Swan Lake" was Robin's choreography, not the wonderful Tarasova program.

Robin stripped out all TT's intricate choreography and rearranged the program so that most of the jumps were in the first three minutes and nearly all the spins were at the end---it was a bare-bones program and nothing like the one with which Sasha had won all 3 GP events. Cohen skated after Shizuka and Julia and was very tense and flat; she led off with a badly wonked lutz and popped her last jump, a 3S. She did get 3 first place ordinals from Shizuka, but then Kwan skated after Sasha and took those firsts plus one more.

Carolina always has nerves skating in her home country and that will hurt her, especially now that she goes to Torino as the reigning World bronze medalist. It might have been better for her if she didn't make the podium this year. I don't see Phaneuf as having a shot at the OGM either. She just doesn't have the experience and is coming off a year of disappointing performances. As for Ando, I don't know what to think. Her spins and footwork were worse this year than they were in the previous season, and now she has changed coaches, and may be moving to the US. I have my doubts that the teenage factor will be in play at the Olympics this time. After all, this is the first Olympics when the age rules were in full effect for all the skaters.

Mathman said:

IMHO it's not so clear. Yes Carolina did well at Worlds. But she finished 7th at Europeans (behind Slutskaya, Poykio, Liashenko, Sebestyen, Sokolova and Maniachenko), at Italian Nationals she managed only two triples, she didn't make the GP final (Ando and Phaneuf both did), and Ando and Phaneuf both beat her at Cup of Russia.

If this question had been asked last year everyone would have said Ando is far ahead of the field in the "Olympic teenager" race.

Can we substitute Rochette for Phaneuf? She'll be twenty just a couple of weeks before the Olys.

Mathman

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I didnt count her since she is too old to fit into that category. That isnt to say she couldnt pull an upset and win, she is more likely than Phaneuf atleast to do so, but she would not fall in "the teen sensation" group, which doesnt even generally include 18 or 19 year olds, only 17 or younger.

As for Kostner she was injured alot of the year, and was doing a reduced triple quota. Coming into the Olympics in her home country, as a reigning World medalist, I clearly see her having the best chance of that group at this point in time. Of course that could change before the Olympics next year, I mean as of right now. Ando has not only stagnated, she has degressed, her jumps are still some of the best, but not at the phenomenal level they were last year, she no longer looks like the second coming of Midori Ito. She does fewer triple-triples, has developed some inconsistency doing the triple lutz and flip, and doesnt even try the quad salchow anymore. The rest of her skating is still blah,
her spins actually had decent speed and positions last year, they are much weaker this year, her spirals are even worse, and if she isnt hanging by the rafters on her jumps she doesnt even have a hope of medaling. Phaneuf will do well to dig herself out of her crisis, pull herself into being a legit rival to Rochette in Canada, and a top-ten worthy globaly again, and get her career on track for a promising long career again. If she doesnt I could see a shortened career for her, right she is going through now seems to be a crisis that is so severe it could put her out of the sport, she looks like an emotional wreck.

As for a year ago it seeming clear Ando was the most likely of that group to challenge for Oly Gold, I did not see that as a certainty as you might have. I saw that as my first belief, my first expectation, I would have choosen her over Kostner as that. However it was not totally clear to me, Kostner I thought also had some chance to fill that role over Ando. I did not think there was that much difference between them, or that she was that likely to improve more of the two.

If Mao Asoda was eligable for the Olympics, I think that would have been your best chance for a teenage OGM winner however. It is sad in a way she isnt.

Mao will be 19 in 2010, so it's still possible a teenager will once again win the Olympics.

I guess I mean a teenager winning the Olympics at what seems like a startling age, between 15 to 17, as has happened of late. I think Mao winning the 2010 Olympics is a good guess, as long as she stays healthy and motivated.

Let's just hope that she can stay healthy through 2010.

slutskayafan21 said:

As for a year ago it seeming clear Ando was the most likely of that group to challenge for Oly Gold, I did not see that as a certainty as you might have. I saw that as my first belief, my first expectation, I would have choosen her over Kostner as that. However it was not totally clear to me, Kostner I thought also had some chance to fill that role over Ando. I did not think there was that much difference between them, or that she was that likely to improve more of the two.

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I agree with this assessment. I think Miki did receive some "protocol judging" at 2004 Worlds. Based on the progress that she made coming off the 2003 season, what with landing a quad and all, she looked like the one that had Irina, Michelle and the rest looking over their shoulders.

But I thought she was overmarked in the LP compared to both Carolina and Fumie (and maybe even Sebestyen).

As much as I am always rooting for Michelle, I have to confess that it is also exciting when one of the youngsters jumps up and delivers a performance of a lifetime. Michelle's legacy is secure whether she wins any more medals or not. Hers is already a household name in the U.S., virtually synonymous with figure skating; she is already rich and famous with a closet full of trophies. Same with Irina and, to some extent, with Sasha.

But for Carolina or Miki it would be the thrill of a lifetime, plus it would put them on the map and secure their future in the sport.

Mathman

Mathman said:

As much as I am always rooting for Michelle, I have to confess that it is also exciting when one of the youngsters jumps up and delivers a performance of a lifetime. Michelle's legacy is secure whether she wins any more medals or not. Hers is already a household name in the U.S., virtually synonymous with figure skating; she is already rich and famous with a closet full of trophies. Same with Irina and, to some extent, with Sasha.

But for Carolina or Miki it would be the thrill of a lifetime, plus it would put them on the map and secure their future in the sport.

Mathman

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For me it becomes alot less exciting when it has happened several times in a row now. Biaul atleast seemed like a reasonable pick to win the 94 Olympics,
and seemed like an iconic type skater, for awhile. Lipinski was a step down from that since Kwan came in as the substantially more symbolic figure of her sport; and she does not really have her own voice as far as her impact in the sport like a Biaul did, but atleast Lipinski has a World title, U.S title, and two Grand Prix final Golds, to go with her Olympic Gold, so she is not a one-time fluke. Hughes who has never done better than 3rd at any Worlds or GP final was not so exciting to see IMO, especially when she did nothing to build on that, and now cant decide to commit to her new life(school), to a pro career, or an amateur career, and is just the fluke out-of-shape Olympic Champ.

Skaters like Kostner and Ando should not have to win the Olympics as teenagers, and then dissapear to secure their future in the sport, they should be able to do it with long, admirable careers the way people used to. None of the aforementioned were even fixtures on the tour/show/pro competition/marketing
side of the sport very long. I dont think it is a good trend.

Skaters like Kwan and Slutskaya will unfairly have their careers tarnished in the eyes of some if they never win the Olympics, just as Cohen's will more understandably be if she never wins something bigger than the lone GP final.

SlutskayaFan - I appreciate your sportsman remarks but winning the Worlds and/or Olys does not necessarily give the winner the 'best' skater. Whatever the competition is and provided there is no hanky panky, the gold medal goes to the skater who actually skated the best THAT NIGHT even if it is a favorite.

The favorite in 2002 was Irina with a possible steal by Kwan and as many hoped a Lipinski like Sasha. However, it was the least expected Sarah and she deserved the gold for being the 'best THAT NIGHT!'.

For some, like me, believe in the 'body of work' by the skater and not the medals.

Joe

To me, at least in the United States, I think the Olympics are not regarded as the end of the world big thing any more like they once were. Part of this is the disappearance of the cold war rivalries where we had to show that our way of doing things is better than the other guys'. Part of it is the increased competition for the sports and entertainment dollar. Part is that Americans don't really care much about international sports anyway. (Our big deals are the Super Bowl, the NBA playoffs -- Detroit Pistons 106, Philadelphia 76ers 86! -- etc. Internationally, the whole world stands still for the World Cup, but in the U.S. sports fans hardly know what sport is being contested.)

And, maybe, in figure skating part of it is judging scandals and the perception that everything is decided before-hand in the smoke-filled back rooms.

Dorothy Hamill once said that in her day you either win the Olympic gold medal and go on tour with Ice Capades (which she eventually bought), or you get silver and go back to secretarial school.

Nowadays Michelle and Irina back up their world and National championships with an Olympic appearance, and they're off to fame and fortune.

Plus, when you're a teenager it is s-o-o-o-o important to win, win, win. No one could possibly be any happier with her victory than Tara (unless it was Sarah). I think older athletes -- well, of course they want to win, they wouldn't be out there if they didn't. But, having seen a little more of life, they can keep things in perspective, so it seems to me.

Sasha is a good case in point. I'm sure she would like to win at least a U.S. championship. But even without it she is immensely popular on tour, plus many commercial opportunities are opening up for her outside of skating. In fact, if you go to the Champions on Ice web site, in both of the featured group pictures, Sasha has the pride of place -- right in the middle of the front row, flanked by Michelle and Irina. Last year Michelle got the middle place.

http://www.championsonice.com/images/section/group-new-05.jpg

Mathman

http://www.championsonice.com/image...roup-new-05.jpg

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That's a sexy picture!

Joesitz said:

SlutskayaFan - I appreciate your sportsman remarks but winning the Worlds and/or Olys does not necessarily give the winner the 'best' skater. Whatever the competition is and provided there is no hanky panky, the gold medal goes to the skater who actually skated the best THAT NIGHT even if it is a favorite.

The favorite in 2002 was Irina with a possible steal by Kwan and as many hoped a Lipinski like Sasha. However, it was the least expected Sarah and she deserved the gold for being the 'best THAT NIGHT!'.

For some, like me, believe in the 'body of work' by the skater and not the medals.

Joe

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Oh I agree. It should go to who is the best that night.

I mean from a hopeful perspective I dont see how wanting an increasingly less proven teenager to win, and then probably leave the sport as a teenager
, is from any emotional perspective something people should want to see.

Mathman said:

(Our big deals are the Super Bowl, the NBA playoffs -- Detroit Pistons 106, Philadelphia 76ers 86! -- etc. Internationally, the whole world stands still for the World Cup, but in the U.S. sports fans hardly know what sport is being contested.)Mathman

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Mathman - You left out "America's Pastime" - BASEBALL . That's sacrilegeous. It is not only a spectator sport but it is played by red blooded American boys every summer!! The Junior Baseball League causes parents no end of joy and violence to each other. And now the METS are actually competing for the playoffs.

Baseball got over the White Sox scandal by a court case and reemphasized no tolerance for betting on baseball by Pete Rose. Baseball takes care of these matters and baseball lives.

Skating has not gotten over the SLC scandal. We only know the French were guilty. The matter is unresolved and I think that is where Speedy wants it. However, I do believe the public - certainly the N.Americans would like to know more about the other party. Avid fans are to eager to forget but the sports world is not. This, imo, is the main cause for the decline in interest in figure skating.

Joe

Joesitz said:

And now the METS are actually competing for the playoffs.

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Hey, only because you got our second-best pitcher.

But about skating?
Michelle Kwan stopped winning the World Championships.