Reading the posts of late I get the impression Michelle is considered out of contention for a Medal esp. Gold. Does anyone think she could pull a Venus Williams. Venus was #14 seeded in tennis not a chance of winning Wimbleton and there she was the old Venus back in form and beat the best and won Wimbleton for the 3rd time. Maybe Michelle can come back the old Michelle and blow the roof off the arena. That would be the most exciting outcome I can think of since she is the one being counted out. What do you all think.
Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?
- Thread starter cianni
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2004
cianni said:
The sentimental side of me really really wants that to happen for her, the sentimental side of me also wants Irina to really really do it too...what i hope for most of all is that both of these skaters (well of them really but these two inparticular) skate the clean planned programs to the best of their ability and leave it to the judges to decide.
I don't think anyone can really make any valid predictions on any of the skaters until we see what kind of shape they're in by the start of the season. By that i mean looking at the construction of their programs - it wouldn't concern me if some of the top skaters' jumps are still missing at the start of the season since thjis is fairly normal - more than anything its the complexity of the connecting moves and potential COP point scoring things that we can see in their programs. I don't think anyone is going to start the season with a choreographically watered down program otherwise they'll never get it later in the season. If Kwan shows up with to teh GP series at all, if its with an empty program i don't think she'll have enough time to build on it and pull it all together in time for the Olympics, she needs to be going out there and attempting the fully choreographed program with all of her planned jump content. If she plans to include a 3/3 at teh Olympics she needs to trying it in the GP whether she falls or not, the pressure to do a jump that you haven't been trying in competition all season is too great for th eone competition that you're going have to attempt it - i think that's what happened at SLC she psyched herself out and two footed the first triple toe. It won't worry me if she falls on a couple of jumps - it would be reassuring that she's just going for it.
Honestly i think regardless of how Kwan skates it will likely depend on the way Slute and Cohen skate as to whether she will get the gold or even medal.
Ant
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
A League of Thier Own
A little bit OT, but do you remember in the movie A League of Our Own, when the big sister deliberately dropped the ball to let little sis be the hero? I think Venus subconsciously holds back when Serena is in the tournament. Certainly when they play head to head, Venus doesn't have that killer instinct -- plus, even if they are just both in contention it seems like Venus is looking over her shoulder trying to protect and encourage Serena.
In this Wimbledon, Serena wasn't a factor, and Venus brought it like the Venus of old!
I wonder if Karen Kwan made sacrifices, perhaps even without knowing it, to let Michelle shine the brighter?
Mathman
A little bit OT, but do you remember in the movie A League of Our Own, when the big sister deliberately dropped the ball to let little sis be the hero? I think Venus subconsciously holds back when Serena is in the tournament. Certainly when they play head to head, Venus doesn't have that killer instinct -- plus, even if they are just both in contention it seems like Venus is looking over her shoulder trying to protect and encourage Serena.
In this Wimbledon, Serena wasn't a factor, and Venus brought it like the Venus of old!
I wonder if Karen Kwan made sacrifices, perhaps even without knowing it, to let Michelle shine the brighter?
Mathman
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2003
cianni said:
Some critical comments IMO, do not equal "counting MK out." Heck, I think we do a pretty good job around here as dutiful arm chair quarterbacks criticizing all the top skaters.
As one of the top ladies in the World, her chances are just as good as all the other top ladies in the World. Unless MK went into Worlds with the mindset that a 4th place finish would be satisfactory (which I have no idea since she didn't discuss it with me 
) , then I think it's safe to say that her strategy of the last year didn't work very well. But I'm guessing she'll approach next season with a different one.I think the favorites will emerge once the season gets underway. And as it goes with the Oly's, I'm sure we'll be in for some surprises, which to me is what make the Oly years so exciting.
After Worlds 2004, was anyone predicting that 2005 would be Irina's year?
DG
Doggygirl said:Some critical comments IMO, do not equal "counting MK out." Heck, I think we do a pretty good job around here as dutiful arm chair quarterbacks criticizing all the top skaters.
I think the favorites will emerge once the season gets underway. And as it goes with the Oly's, I'm sure we'll be in for some surprises, which to me is what make the Oly years so exciting.
After Worlds 2004, was anyone predicting that 2005 would be Irina's year?
DG
well,I knew Irina was going to comeback stronger and she did. She always tries to skate her best( illness or not)that's what counts
IMO, it is way too early to count out anyone or anything under any circumstances. In '02, if anyone was to beat Kwan, it was supposed to be Slutskaya; the US "longshot" was Cohen, not Hughes. At Worlds '05, there was a very low correlation between GP success and success at Worlds; and who predicted a men's podium without Plush?
antmanb
antmanb, I agree about the sentimental side wishing that would happen and maybe it will. I would like an explanation about Irina and Sasha . i dont see the lock in for these two. Will a spin you win give Sasha the gold or got the bielman down over and over and you win. I dont see really clean programs without flaws for either of these two. I would like to know how you see the win here. This is not about Michelle as I agree if she doesnt do the GP and add a lot more to her programs no Medal. Im speaking about skating clean balanced programs. I dont see a medal with trip, falls, hands down , stepping out of jumps or repeating the same spin over and over. I dont see the quality of the skating anymore . The judging is another whole ballgame as we might just get the setup win and I wouldnt count that out. Anyway Id like your feedback and how you see the two to beat. I also like Arakawa, and maybe the come out of nowhere ala Sarah.
antmanb, I agree about the sentimental side wishing that would happen and maybe it will. I would like an explanation about Irina and Sasha . i dont see the lock in for these two. Will a spin you win give Sasha the gold or got the bielman down over and over and you win. I dont see really clean programs without flaws for either of these two. I would like to know how you see the win here. This is not about Michelle as I agree if she doesnt do the GP and add a lot more to her programs no Medal. Im speaking about skating clean balanced programs. I dont see a medal with trip, falls, hands down , stepping out of jumps or repeating the same spin over and over. I dont see the quality of the skating anymore . The judging is another whole ballgame as we might just get the setup win and I wouldnt count that out. Anyway Id like your feedback and how you see the two to beat. I also like Arakawa, and maybe the come out of nowhere ala Sarah.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I agree with you cianni and antmanb - the sentimental side of me says she can do it. but I have that realistic side too. I really think if Irina skates her best she will easily with the Olys. she just chalks up so many technical points which are enough to sway the judges into giving her high pcs scores - not as high as Sasha but highest in total scores. Sasha has the best chance to win over Irina if she is faultless and there is no hanky panky.
Mind you. The above is completely in this point in time.
Let's watch closely the GPs and see if there is a new this point in time.
Joe
Mind you. The above is completely in this point in time.
Let's watch closely the GPs and see if there is a new this point in time.
Joe
Joestiz
Joesitz, I agree on some points but I want to know if you are saying Bielman over and over because thats all I see. Irina jumps high but without flow just a thud for the most part, her spins are all over the place and chore is MIA. Sasha doesnt skate a clean program but can spin and her jumps are not too good of late. I guess COP is not about quality skating or balanced programs from what I read. I also dont have a clue what Michelle will do but I hope its not a sloppy arm waving jump fest and she stays on her feet. Hanky Panky dont count it out. Politics and Bias abound. The GP will tell us alot about the skaters programs and skating and who will be overmarked as the setup for the OLYS. I just dont see Irinas quality of skating OLY Gold worthy. A clean Sasha I can see. I dont want to forget Arakawa or Michelle when at their best as quality skaters.
Joesitz, I agree on some points but I want to know if you are saying Bielman over and over because thats all I see. Irina jumps high but without flow just a thud for the most part, her spins are all over the place and chore is MIA. Sasha doesnt skate a clean program but can spin and her jumps are not too good of late. I guess COP is not about quality skating or balanced programs from what I read. I also dont have a clue what Michelle will do but I hope its not a sloppy arm waving jump fest and she stays on her feet. Hanky Panky dont count it out. Politics and Bias abound. The GP will tell us alot about the skaters programs and skating and who will be overmarked as the setup for the OLYS. I just dont see Irinas quality of skating OLY Gold worthy. A clean Sasha I can see. I dont want to forget Arakawa or Michelle when at their best as quality skaters.
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2003
cianni said:
Hi Cianni. I realize you directed your questions to Joe, but what the heck! When has something like that ever stopped me from offering up my own opinion!!
Irina was SO successful at "Bielmanizing" her programs that some new ISU rules are in effect for next season that seem (IMO) to be new Irina rules. That is not an easy position to achieve, and this is a sport after all - so difficulty is rewarded. Irina also came forward with jump content that overall, was more difficult across the season (and Worlds) from the rest of the field. The score sheets from the GP Series and World's tell that story.
Sasha also came forward with programs that were overall (ref Worlds scoresheets) deemed to be a combination of more difficult and performed with better execution than the competition.
The good news for MK is that it's all right there in black and white, with two years of GP history. I'm trying to keep the faith that these days, politikin' plays a lesser role than program content and execution in determining the winners. In terms of technical content, she's on equal footing with everyone else with regard to published rules and results. I think the PCS side of the house has a ways to go, but IMO for the sport as a whole, things have moved in a positive direction.
DG
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2004
cianni said:
Irina's quality of skating isn'y OLY gold worthy? Let's see here, she has two world gold medals to Sasha's, let me think.... oh that's right, ZERO gold medals! I'd say Irina's quality of skating surely is high enough for olympic gold!
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
What happened for Irina last season was that she was the 'comeback kid'. It's an old movie story (think Rocky). With so much adversary in her life she fought back and eveyone's heart opened up for her (including mine). One could feel the hopeful ambience from the crowd as she took to the ice. This definitely was a subjective point in the scoring.
The more important point in the scoring was the high degree of technical tricks that she used in her program. So much, imo, that her choreography suffered. If you have a tape, you will notice there is not much skating in between the elements. I saw that her best moments were her footwork sequences, not that they were so great but that it was musical and gave her some speed, and showed a bit of flow to this overworked technical program. She did take advantage of her body type which is capable of making Bielman positions and for which the powers to be consider them to be a high degree of execution. So be it; some skaters have the body type some don't.
Given the two points above, I would agree that she deserved the gold medal. However, I think Sasha's pcs scores were higher or they should have been but I do not rule out the next eight figure skaters battling for gold in the next Olys. How hard everyone is working for that goal we don't know for sure but I believe the Grand Prix events should give us a hint. Let's hope they all do well.
Joe
The more important point in the scoring was the high degree of technical tricks that she used in her program. So much, imo, that her choreography suffered. If you have a tape, you will notice there is not much skating in between the elements. I saw that her best moments were her footwork sequences, not that they were so great but that it was musical and gave her some speed, and showed a bit of flow to this overworked technical program. She did take advantage of her body type which is capable of making Bielman positions and for which the powers to be consider them to be a high degree of execution. So be it; some skaters have the body type some don't.
Given the two points above, I would agree that she deserved the gold medal. However, I think Sasha's pcs scores were higher or they should have been but I do not rule out the next eight figure skaters battling for gold in the next Olys. How hard everyone is working for that goal we don't know for sure but I believe the Grand Prix events should give us a hint. Let's hope they all do well.
Joe
If you had seen so many low ranked (Junior down) skaters trying out the Bielman you'd wondering is this really that difficult?
I think it is just a 'trend' now. Like 'fashion' in FS, just because the 'price'(reward) is high.
I think it is just a 'trend' now. Like 'fashion' in FS, just because the 'price'(reward) is high.
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I don't know about "should have been," but in fact, Irina cleaned up on the PCS, as shown in MKBeauty's post below.Joesitz said:
I go back and forth about whether I think the New Judging System will rob figure skating of its raison d'etre and replace it with a mechanical counting of jumps. At first I thought yes. Then the men's competition at Worlds convinced me, no. Both Lambiel's and Buttle's winning performances were gorgeous.
But the more I looked at the score sheets afterwords, the more obvious it seemed to me that the only reason they won is that everyone else fell down even more than the leaders. Anyone presenting a clean program with a full complement of jumps would have easily outpointed Lambiel, never mind his spins, transitional elements, interpretation and choreography.
If Irina (or anyone else) lands all her jumps, I can almost guarentee she will also receive the highest component scores from the Olympic judges.
Mathman
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re. Worlds Scoring
Irina's PCS scores were higher = 66.07
Sasha = 62.12
MK = 59.36
I agree with you about Irina's lack of transitions, however it didn't stop the judges from giving her the top score in this area. Worlds was a special moment for her, though. It's interesting to note that Sasha's PCS scores were higher than what Irina was receiving during the GP, and MK is pretty darn close:
Euros = 57.53
GPF = 61.12
COR = 60.40
COC = 57.44
What this all means for next season, I'm not sure. But until we see the new programs, it's hard to count anyone out.
Edited to add:
Mathman - looks like we posted at the same time.
Joesitz said:
Irina's PCS scores were higher = 66.07
Sasha = 62.12
MK = 59.36
I agree with you about Irina's lack of transitions, however it didn't stop the judges from giving her the top score in this area. Worlds was a special moment for her, though. It's interesting to note that Sasha's PCS scores were higher than what Irina was receiving during the GP, and MK is pretty darn close:
Euros = 57.53
GPF = 61.12
COR = 60.40
COC = 57.44
What this all means for next season, I'm not sure. But until we see the new programs, it's hard to count anyone out.
Edited to add:
Mathman - looks like we posted at the same time.
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
IMO, judges are always amazed at 3x3s for the Ladies and that amazement translates into higher pcs scores together with the roar of the crowd and lots of Bielmans to back it up.
Joe
Joe
Carolina Kostner's 3/3s didn't gift her with high PCS scores. Lots of other skaters did 3/3s, too, but didn't get the high scores.
Irina got the highest PCS scores in the Worlds SP, too, even though she had multiple mistakes. The judges propped her up at Euros in the FS with much higher PCS scores than the other ladies.
If this trend continues at Torino, Irina will win the OGM no matter how she skates. If she turns in two so-so programs and wins over spectacular performances by other skaters, there will be another judging flap, count on it.
Irina got the highest PCS scores in the Worlds SP, too, even though she had multiple mistakes. The judges propped her up at Euros in the FS with much higher PCS scores than the other ladies.
If this trend continues at Torino, Irina will win the OGM no matter how she skates. If she turns in two so-so programs and wins over spectacular performances by other skaters, there will be another judging flap, count on it.
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2005
"I don't know when Irina Slutzkaya was awarded the 2005 World gold medal but it was definitely a long time before she put a foot on the ice."
That was a quote from my local paper after the SP (i think) from Worlds. That's kind of what I'm thinking the Olympics might be like unfortunately.
That was a quote from my local paper after the SP (i think) from Worlds. That's kind of what I'm thinking the Olympics might be like unfortunately.
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