2019-20 JGP Final: Preview Chat

gsk8

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Messages
5,929
Country
United-States
Hi all!

This post will be edited to include links to the Predictions Game in the near future!

Junior Grand Prix Final Qualifiers and Standings

Ladies / Men / Pairs / Ice Dance

In the meantime, what are your thoughts compared to the beginning of the season? Has any skater/team stood out to you more then before? Who are the dark horses and why?
 

macy

you should see her in a crown
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
Messages
2,514
just gonna say the ladies will be INSANE. you could make a podium out of any of the girls competing.

Sinitsyna is the dark horse. she could take the whole thing if others make mistakes.

i don't even think i can make predictions because it's all a toss up. i do think if Kamila is clean she will win, but other than that its so up in the air.
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Messages
5,098
Country
Canada
I remarked over in the Egna thread that this is the first JGP Final where no North American men qualified, and on broader examination, I believe this is an all-time low for North American skaters, period. Though the two US skaters who did qualify, Alysa Liu and Nguyen/Kolesnik, are both medal favourites, so it's not all bad. But compared to last year, say, when there were three men, two dance teams and a pair, it's a step down in depth.

That regional disappointment aside, a strong slate of qualifiers this year, and other than in pairs, where I would be stunned if Panfilova/Rylov didn't win by a lot, there are no clear-cut favourites for gold.
 

oleada

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Messages
2,284
I am happy to see skaters from Italy, Germany and Korea qualify.
 

Step Sequence4

JULLLIEEEEETTTT!
Final Flight
Joined
Jan 12, 2018
Messages
584
very surprised 2 high scoring silvers didn't get Danielian into the final (although yes, the 1st and 3rd wins the tiebreaker, but still)
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Messages
10,835
That regional disappointment aside, a strong slate of qualifiers this year, and other than in pairs, where I would be stunned if Panfilova/Rylov didn't win by a lot, there are no clear-cut favourites for gold.

Nguyen / Kolesnik should be the favorite for gold---they had the highest RD and FD score and were more than 10 points ahead of their closest competitor in total points.
 

elektra blue

mother of skaters
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 11, 2018
Messages
9,336
Country
Italy
men is just a little less insane than ladies as they can be all very unpredictable. if you look just at the scores Samsonov should be the clear winner, but can he be consistent? the other boys are more experienced than him, 2 of them have already competed as seniors. it will be fun :popcorn: (and it will kill me :biggrin:)
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Messages
29,344
Country
United-States
There is an interesting change in the primacy of North American junior dance schools. Wheaton Academy has no team even in substitutes, nor does MFD in Gadbois :eek: You have to go down to 19th place to find a Wheaton team. There are 3 Igor USA teams ahead of them. The highest ranked Gadbois team is in 10th.

In the JGPF, Igor has two teams (one from Russia). Karine Arribert Narce has one. Samokhin has 1 Russian team and the team from Georgia. Svinin & Zhuk have a team.

If you look at the substitutes, Hallam of TCC has one (and Hallam/TCC has Utashin too- they will rise next year!), Samokhin has one more, and Rubleva & Shefer have one.

Change is coming.
 
Last edited:

Dreamer57

Final Flight
Joined
May 20, 2018
Messages
961
I'm actually looking forward to the ice dance the most.
I haven't really followed the juniors much until this season, but I'm glad I found the ice dancing streams! I think the finalists are a good mix from several countries/coaches, they all have decent skating skills and different choreographic styles. I like watching them all, sometimes even more than the seniors.
Or maybe it is partly because I haven't yet established a firm favourite so I don't get too worked up about the scoring at the end :p

I notice that all the ladies are in their first JGP final which is a great achievement! Hopefully everyone will enjoy the experience as well as competing to win.
 

skatergurl7

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 29, 2019
Messages
203
I remarked over in the Egna thread that this is the first JGP Final where no North American men qualified, and on broader examination, I believe this is an all-time low for North American skaters, period. Though the two US skaters who did qualify, Alysa Liu and Nguyen/Kolesnik, are both medal favourites, so it's not all bad. But compared to last year, say, when there were three men, two dance teams and a pair, it's a step down in depth.

That regional disappointment aside, a strong slate of qualifiers this year, and other than in pairs, where I would be stunned if Panfilova/Rylov didn't win by a lot, there are no clear-cut favourites for gold.

Quality > quantity. I’d rather see 2 gold medal contenders than 4 5th and 6th place finishers
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Messages
5,098
Country
Canada
There is an interesting change in the primacy of North American junior dance schools. Wheaton Academy has no team even in substitutes, nor does MFD in Gadbois :eek: You have to go down to 19th place to find a Wheaton team. There are 3 Igor USA teams ahead of them. The highest ranked Gadbois team is in 10th.
That is somewhat notable for Wheaton, I'm not sure as much for Gadbois, which has never really been notable for juniors. They've typically had, at most, one prominent junior team at any given moment.
 

macy

you should see her in a crown
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
Messages
2,514
i also want to add Alysa is the first junior lady the US has sent to the final since 2013 :clap:
 

GoneWithTheWind

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 7, 2018
Messages
309
Country
United-Kingdom
My discovery of the JGP is definitely Diana Mukhametzianova and Ilya Mironov, I love their quirky short program and would love to see them sneak on the podium in the JGPF!

On a Pairs note, it's lovely to see Annika Hocke and Robert Kunkel qualify to the final, although they are unlikely to podium, it's nice to see other nations get into the final and great that Annika found another partner of her caliber to continue skating with after her split with Ruben.

Best of luck to all the skaters!
 

anaissa

Rinkside
Joined
Sep 29, 2019
Messages
15
men is just a little less insane than ladies as they can be all very unpredictable. if you look just at the scores Samsonov should be the clear winner, but can he be consistent? the other boys are more experienced than him, 2 of them have already competed as seniors. it will be fun :popcorn: (and it will kill me :biggrin:)

I totally agree.But please tell me,who has already competed as seniors?one is Daniel,the other is ......
 

elektra blue

mother of skaters
Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 11, 2018
Messages
9,336
Country
Italy
I totally agree.But please tell me,who has already competed as seniors?one is Daniel,the other is ......

Gumennik competed at senior nats and Skate Helena, Kagiyama at Challenge Cup
 

Ice Dance

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 26, 2014
Messages
2,943
There is an interesting change in the primacy of North American junior dance schools. Wheaton Academy has no team even in substitutes, nor does MFD in Gadbois :eek: You have to go down to 19th place to find a Wheaton team. There are 3 Igor USA teams ahead of them. The highest ranked Gadbois team is in 10th.

Yes, well, I'm sure Igor would like us to see it that way;).

But Wolfkostin came with Camerlengo. Chen came via Marina. And Davis & Smolkin arrived with a JGP medal already in their pocket (and they still don't look that safe at home). So we'll see how the future unravels. Junior dance is always a wild ride.

I think W&C have nice potential. (I also think Camerlengo deserves more credit here. And I wish W&C would have another season before they were likely to be faced with trying to help earn berths for the U.S. team via Junior Worlds. On the one hand, it's a rude awakening to get to U.S. Junior Nationals and find yourself in 7th place after the RD as Nguyen & Kolesnik did their first year together; but on the other hand, it's nice to have the experience together before all the pressure starts to hit).

Wheaton is fresh off all their split junior teams. They'll need some time--as Caroline moved up, Tkachenko & Kiliakov are both young, and Ian was stupid (IMHO). Cesanek & Yehorov and DelCamp & Somerville both have a shot at Junior Worlds, though they'll go to battle for it. And Bronsard & Bouaraguia have the same ahead, with the third highest score for a team out of Canada and 6 Canadian teams scoring within 6 points of each other.
 

WeakAnkles

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
Messages
11,124
There is an interesting change in the primacy of North American junior dance schools. Wheaton Academy has no team even in substitutes, nor does MFD in Gadbois :eek: You have to go down to 19th place to find a Wheaton team. There are 3 Igor USA teams ahead of them. The highest ranked Gadbois team is in 10th.

In the JGPF, Igor has two teams (one from Russia). Karine Arribert Narce has one. Samokhin has 1 Russian team and the team from Georgia. Svinin & Zhuk have a team.

If you look at the substitutes, Hallam of TCC has one (and Hallam/TCC has Utashin too- they will rise next year!), Samokhin has one more, and Rubleva & Shefer have one.

Change is coming.


For all you nostalgia fans, it may feel like the 80s and 90s all over again. Of course nostalgia isn't progress, but one good thing about trends: they never last forever!

I'm actually rooting for Nguyen/Kolesnik NOT to win. It's almost like there has been this curse on the ID winners at Junior Worlds. And N/K are just too good to be cursed!
 
Joined
Nov 17, 2018
Messages
14
For all you nostalgia fans, it may feel like the 80s and 90s all over again. Of course nostalgia isn't progress, but one good thing about trends: they never last forever!

I'm actually rooting for Nguyen/Kolesnik NOT to win. It's almost like there has been this curse on the ID winners at Junior Worlds. And N/K are just too good to be cursed!

Maybe they'll get lucky and win both!
 

natsulian

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 14, 2018
Messages
655
The ladies event will be the most exciting AND nerve wrecking. Any of the ladies on any given day could take the gold, but the favorites going into the event are Kamila and Alysa. However, if either make mistakes, then Kseniia will probably nab the gold/silver. Haein Lee will want to medal, but that would require two impeccable performances AND mistakes from others. The other two Russians have fair chances of medalling, but once again, destiny is not in their hands. There’s been talks about Alysa’s 4S and 4T which, if she decides to add and land them, might make things even more interesting. Best of luck to all the ladies, men, and teams.
 

SnowWhite

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 30, 2016
Messages
4,261
Country
Canada
For all you nostalgia fans, it may feel like the 80s and 90s all over again. Of course nostalgia isn't progress, but one good thing about trends: they never last forever!

I'm actually rooting for Nguyen/Kolesnik NOT to win. It's almost like there has been this curse on the ID winners at Junior Worlds. And N/K are just too good to be cursed!

Winning JW didn't seem too cursed for Virtue/Moir ;)

I think the transition to seniors is just tough in dance.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Messages
10,835
Among the cursed: Matthews / Zavosin, Samuelson / Bates, Domnina / Shabalin, Ilinyk / Katasalapov, Sinitsina / Zhiganshin, Yanovskaya / Mozgov, Parsons / Parsons
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Messages
14,725
deleted … because this JGPF thread apparently has morphed into a discussion solely of JW. :/
 

chameleon

On the Ice
Joined
May 29, 2014
Messages
499
Well, the success rate for non JW champs isn't great either. Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov didn't even make it to seniors. Loboda/Drozd split after one season. Paul/Islam, Aldridge/Eaton, Crone/Poirier, etc etc etc.
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Messages
5,098
Country
Canada
Of the top 10 teams at 2019 Worlds, 4 teams won JW medals together, 2 teams had both members win JW with other partners, and 2 teams had one member who had a JW/JGP Final medal. The only teams where neither member had any notable titles on the junior circuit were Guignard/Fabbri and Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Messages
14,725
Off topic, but the JGP schedule for next season has been published:

4. ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Calendar season 2020/21
The Council approved the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Calendar for the season 2020/21
as follows:
August 26-29, 2020 Richmond / CAN (including Pair Skating)
September 2-5, 2020 Kosice / SVK (including Pair Skating)
September 9-12, 2020 Budapest / HUN
September 16-19, 2020 Shinyokohama / JPN
September 23-26, 2020 Ostrava / CZE (including Pair Skating)
September 30-October 3, 2020 Tashkent / UZB (including Pair Skating)
October 7-10, 2020 Ljubljana / SLO

https://isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/22408-isu-communication-2289/file (Oct 18)​
 

Dreamer57

Final Flight
Joined
May 20, 2018
Messages
961
Off topic, but the JGP schedule for next season has been published:

4. ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Calendar season 2020/21
The Council approved the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Calendar for the season 2020/21
as follows:
August 26-29, 2020 Richmond / CAN (including Pair Skating)
September 2-5, 2020 Kosice / SVK (including Pair Skating)
September 9-12, 2020 Budapest / HUN
September 16-19, 2020 Shinyokohama / JPN
September 23-26, 2020 Ostrava / CZE (including Pair Skating)
September 30-October 3, 2020 Tashkent / UZB (including Pair Skating)
October 7-10, 2020 Ljubljana / SLO

https://isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/22408-isu-communication-2289/file (Oct 18)​

Yay Japan has an event! :)

- - - Updated - - -

Off topic, but the JGP schedule for next season has been published:

4. ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Calendar season 2020/21
The Council approved the ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Calendar for the season 2020/21
as follows:
August 26-29, 2020 Richmond / CAN (including Pair Skating)
September 2-5, 2020 Kosice / SVK (including Pair Skating)
September 9-12, 2020 Budapest / HUN
September 16-19, 2020 Shinyokohama / JPN
September 23-26, 2020 Ostrava / CZE (including Pair Skating)
September 30-October 3, 2020 Tashkent / UZB (including Pair Skating)
October 7-10, 2020 Ljubljana / SLO

https://isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/22408-isu-communication-2289/file (Oct 18)​

Yay Japan has an event! :)
 
Top