2019-20 Ladies' power ranking

Good Vibes Only

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 22, 2019
I am not sure why you rank Scherbakova above Kihira. Scherbakova hasn't actually beaten Kihira's no lutz, 3A mistake skate score at SC yet. Based purely on their scores so far, I'd put Kihira at third. I'd like to see your justification.

I ranked Anna ahead because of her potential scoring in the free program and her consistency so far this season. Rika is very close though. Once Rika recovers from her ankle injury and can to 3 lutz again, then she may shift into third. Plus, they are also my opinions and I may be a little biased toward the 3A. :agree:
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
I ranked Anna ahead because of her potential scoring in the free program and her consistency so far this season. Rika is very close though. Once Rika recovers from her ankle injury and can to 3 lutz again, then she may shift into third. Plus, they are also my opinions and I may be a little biased toward the 3A. :agree:

I'm not even sure Anna outscores Rika if both of them go clean and Rika doesn't do a 4S. Anna lost about 8 points on lutz edge calls, which seems like a fundamental technique problem that won't change anytime soon. Even if you give her those points, and you DON'T give Rika any lutzes, they're still both at about 235. That's a sizeable handicap you need to give Rika for them to tie.
 

Good Vibes Only

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 22, 2019
I'm not even sure Anna outscores Rika if both of them go clean and Rika doesn't do a 4S. Anna lost about 8 points on lutz edge calls, which seems like a fundamental technique problem that won't change anytime soon. Even if you give her those points, and you DON'T give Rika any lutzes, they're still both at about 235. That's a sizeable handicap you need to give Rika for them to tie.

When I say scoring potential, I mean a possible increase in PCS as the season goes on, especially in the short program. Also there was a video of Anna doing a triple lutz off of an outside edge during a gala practice, so I think that her team is really going to be focusing on correcting that and making sure that the judges won’t be able to ding her on edge calls. Same goes for Alina and Alena. It may be harder for her to get a better outside edge on her quad lutz, but you never know. We will see what happens at the GPF. Also keep in mind that Anna has already qualified for the grand prix final and Rika has not yet. I also took that into consideration as well. I do respect your opinions though, but I still think that Anna should be third with Rika at a VERY CLOSE fourth. These aren’t facts, these are just my opinions
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
I'm not even sure Anna outscores Rika if both of them go clean and Rika doesn't do a 4S. Anna lost about 8 points on lutz edge calls, which seems like a fundamental technique problem that won't change anytime soon. Even if you give her those points, and you DON'T give Rika any lutzes, they're still both at about 235. That's a sizeable handicap you need to give Rika for them to tie.

Yes, this the primary advantage that Rika and Trusova have over the rest of the field. They won't get many technical calls even with a strict panel because they don't have any edge issues or major UR issues (although they both do UR on occasion). I don't think that the scoring at SC was more generous than the scoring at Skate America, so I also don't agree with putting Anna above Rika (even without a 4S and her lutzes). I do think she is solidly 3rd. If she has her 3lz back, she is tied for 2nd with Alena. We will see if her lutz is back this week at NHK.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
When I say scoring potential, I mean a possible increase in PCS as the season goes on, especially in the short program. Also there was a video of Anna doing a triple lutz off of an outside edge during a gala practice, so I think that her team is really going to be focusing on correcting that and making sure that the judges won’t be able to ding her on edge calls. Same goes for Alina and Alena. It may be harder for her to get a better outside edge on her quad lutz, but you never know. We will see what happens at the GPF. Also keep in mind that Anna has already qualified for the grand prix final and Rika has not yet. I also took that into consideration as well. I do respect your opinions though, but I still think that Anna should be third with Rika at a VERY CLOSE fourth. These aren’t facts, these are just my opinions

Sure, you're entitled to your opinion, and we can agree to disagree. Time will tell which of our opinions is more accurate. If Evgenia is anything to go by, changing lutz technique may be very difficult.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
I personally placed Anna just a smudge below Rika because:

1. Anna's SP hasn't been scoring so well with the judges, and that 3Lz+3Lo is a bit wild. She's improving, but for now it's still a small liability compared to Rika's relatively consistent SP. Anna's more at the mercy of the panel, so that variability could hurt.
2. Anna's money maker is the FS, but judges at CoC slaughtered her lutzes (which she relies heavily on). This trend could continue or could disappear, but it's still a concern when her two quad FS only earned her ~152 points.
3. Rika still has a clear PCS advantage - Rika is closer to her ceiling, but Anna's PCS hasn't been rising too much despite winning and unraveling quads. I'm not yet convinced that judges will shower the new seniors with PCS just yet.
4. Rika's SB is still higher than Anna's. Sure, scores aren't comparable across competitions, but this still subconsciously weighs somewhat when judges are looking to mentally rank these skaters.
5. If we argue that Anna's lutz edges are being worked on, we can also say Rika is working on bringing back her lutz. Both skaters can still improve on a lot of things and earn more points.

NHK will provide us with more intel as to how Rika stacks up against everyone else. For now, in my ranking Rika is just a tiny bit ahead.
 

Fluture

You will see her in a crown
Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 26, 2018
Sure, you're entitled to your opinion, and we can agree to disagree. Time will tell which of our opinions is more accurate. If Evgenia is anything to go by, changing lutz technique may be very difficult.

Lutz technique is very difficult to change, indeed. It will be for Anna as well. But I think you‘re forgetting something very difficult and that‘s the “message“ (sorry, question...) rusfed sent to the ISU. NHK will be interesting for many reasons and one of them will be to see how many edge calls we can expect in the GPF and further down the season. I’m not judging from Rostelecom because well... it’s Rostelecom. But without edge calls Anna is very much competitive with Rika and I think she would actually beat her. I prefer Anna‘s programs this season but I think Rika‘s overall the better skater. But I‘m not sure this will be reflected in the scores and without a lutz it‘s going to be difficult as well. Do we know whether she has it back yet?
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Lutz technique is very difficult to change, indeed. It will be for Anna as well. But I think you‘re forgetting something very difficult and that‘s the “message“ (sorry, question...) rusfed sent to the ISU. NHK will be interesting for many reasons and one of them will be to see how many edge calls we can expect in the GPF and further down the season. I’m not judging from Rostelecom because well... it’s Rostelecom. But without edge calls Anna is very much competitive with Rika and I think she would actually beat her. I prefer Anna‘s programs this season but I think Rika‘s overall the better skater. But I‘m not sure this will be reflected in the scores and without a lutz it‘s going to be difficult as well. Do we know whether she has it back yet?

We will find out in a few days whether she has it back yet or not, I suppose. I'd imagine Hamada wouldn't risk Rika's health for this competition as she really just needs bronze to qualify for GPF, and even so, three clean 3As without any lutzes has an above-average shot at beating Alina too, but that's assuming her ankle hasn't fully healed. She's had a month since SC.

Regarding the message, I'm curious as well to see what's happened as a result. Evgenia's 3Lze was still called, fairly. Sasha's 4S< was also called, fairly. True, her 3Lz-3Lo< wasn't called, but I guess missing out on URs has become so commonplace that I don't know if that's noteworthy. It's not immediately clear that they were scored any more or less harshly.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
1. Alexandra Trusova (no change): She needs four quads when she’s up against #2-4. The solution, therefore, is to clean up her 4S and improve her stamina. Falling twice is no big deal in a field where you’re the only skater with quads, but at the GPF such mistakes will be quite costly.

2. Rika Kihira (no change): I was always under the impression her ankle injury is minor and the decision to remove the lutzes from her programs was a cautionary one. However, if my impression is incorrect and she’s still injured, she could still take home the gold without them. Her Skate Canada performance without a step-out in the free skate would put her in the mid 230’s and that edges out a clean Kostornaia and a clean Zagitova in home territory. If she has her lutzes back and skates clean, she’ll win. But the real question is: Will we finally see a 4S?

3. Alena Kostornaia (no change): Kostornaia should have the edge in components over Kihira, but not a significant one, but she's at a technical disadvantage when skating against Kihira. Her 3A is weaker than hers (better height, but poorer axis and air position which causes URs). NHK will be fun.

4. Anna Scherbakova (no change)

5. Alina Zagitova (no change)

6. Bradie Tennell (+1) : Ice is slippery, but it aint that slippery. The ice is going to have to be downright greasy at NHK so I consider her qualified for the GPF. I have mixed feelings about a Silver and a 4th place being above two bronzes, but at the end of the day, she [/i] did [/i] out-perform Bell in the Grand Prix circuit. Zagitova will not be the only skater without a 3A or quad at the GPF.


7. Mariah Bell (+3) : She picked up a second bronze at GP Russia and is definitely looking strong this year. She won’t make the GPF, but she did help her compatriot make it there. Tennell has higher scoring potential but gets multiple UR calls so Bell is about even with Tennell. US Nationals will be interesting.

8. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (+1)

9. Evgenia Medvedeva (return to list): She delivered what was her best back-to-back performances this season. She’ll need to skate like that at her Nationals to get a conversation about Worlds spots going. And even then, some key players would have to make some damning mistakes. Nationals will be key.

10. Young You (-4): She dropped not due to poor performance (on the contrary, she’s doing well) but because other skaters - mainly the Americans - are doing very well. If she works on her consistency with the 3A, she can be a podium threat for competitions later in the season.

Removed:
Satoko Miyahara: Like Tuktamysheva, she didn’t walk through the wide open door. As expected, Miyahara was slammed with URs. What was quite not as expected were the costly mistakes and Bell beating her for the bronze medal. Miyahara currently benefits from a stagnant talent pool in Japan, but in another year or two, she’ll find it hard to qualify for the World Team if she doesn’t correct her jumps. That difficulty may come sooner if someone like Wakaba Higuchi returns to form at the right time.
 

Mishaminion

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Agree with all of that apart from Alyona's 3A being weaker than Rika's. She has landed it (UR or not) everytime she has tried it, a 100% success rating.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
1. Alexandra Trusova (no change): She needs four quads when she’s up against #2-4. The solution, therefore, is to clean up her 4S and improve her stamina. Falling twice is no big deal in a field where you’re the only skater with quads, but at the GPF such mistakes will be quite costly.

2. Rika Kihira (no change): I was always under the impression her ankle injury is minor and the decision to remove the lutzes from her programs was a cautionary one. However, if my impression is incorrect and she’s still injured, she could still take home the gold without them. Her Skate Canada performance without a step-out in the free skate would put her in the mid 230’s and that edges out a clean Kostornaia and a clean Zagitova in home territory. If she has her lutzes back and skates clean, she’ll win. But the real question is: Will we finally see a 4S?

3. Alena Kostornaia (no change): Kostornaia should have the edge in components over Kihira, but not a significant one, but she's at a technical disadvantage when skating against Kihira. Her 3A is weaker than hers (better height, but poorer axis and air position which causes URs). NHK will be fun.

4. Anna Scherbakova (no change)

5. Alina Zagitova (no change)

6. Bradie Tennell (+1) : Ice is slippery, but it aint that slippery. The ice is going to have to be downright greasy at NHK so I consider her qualified for the GPF. I have mixed feelings about a Silver and a 4th place being above two bronzes, but at the end of the day, she [/i] did [/i] out-perform Bell in the Grand Prix circuit. Zagitova will not be the only skater without a 3A or quad at the GPF.


7. Mariah Bell (+3) : She picked up a second bronze at GP Russia and is definitely looking strong this year. She won’t make the GPF, but she did help her compatriot make it there. Tennell has higher scoring potential but gets multiple UR calls so Bell is about even with Tennell. US Nationals will be interesting.

8. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (+1)

9. Evgenia Medvedeva (return to list): She delivered what was her best back-to-back performances this season. She’ll need to skate like that at her Nationals to get a conversation about Worlds spots going. And even then, some key players would have to make some damning mistakes. Nationals will be key.

10. Young You (-4): She dropped not due to poor performance (on the contrary, she’s doing well) but because other skaters - mainly the Americans - are doing very well. If she works on her consistency with the 3A, she can be a podium threat for competitions later in the season.

Removed:
Satoko Miyahara: Like Tuktamysheva, she didn’t walk through the wide open door. As expected, Miyahara was slammed with URs. What was quite not as expected were the costly mistakes and Bell beating her for the bronze medal. Miyahara currently benefits from a stagnant talent pool in Japan, but in another year or two, she’ll find it hard to qualify for the World Team if she doesn’t correct her jumps. That difficulty may come sooner if someone like Wakaba Higuchi returns to form at the right time.

Agree with most of the analysis but disagree with some of the placements. No hard feelings, just want to open up some discourse!

#2/3 - Rika & Alena are pretty interchangeable for me, but Alena has been more consistent and holds a higher SB (with PCS rising). Alena should be higher in PCS, but actually not yet in the judges' eyes (Rika has been receiving higher PCS). However, I'm not sure it's fair to say that Rika without her step-out would get into the mid-230's and beat a clean Alena when Alena's non-clean score is already in the mid-230's. If both are clean, Alena has the edge on GOE's and base value from her lutzes.

#7/8 - I also placed Mariah above Liza in my ranking but after Rostelecom Cup, I may slot Liza back up higher. Mariah's jumps were very questionable and borderline. Her bronze was a great accomplishment, but was mostly due to a weaker field. Mariah has the edge in PCS, but judges are not scoring them with a significant enough gap. Therefore, I'd have Liza up ahead for now until Mariah pulls out a more consistent program of jumps. This is mostly a moot point though, as Liza may likely never face Mariah again this season.

#9 - Curious as to why Evgenia is still being ranked so lowly? She put out two clean programs that were very well received by the judges. She scored 20 points more than Mariah at the same competition, so I'm not sure I would still put her below Mariah. She's scoring much higher than #5-8 on this list! Shanghai Trophy aside (where she was sick and just not ready early season), she really only had one miss this season (SP at Skate Canada) so I'm not too convinced about the inconsistency narrative. Alina was slaughtered by the panels, Bradie slipped and omitted an entire jumping pass, and Mariah and Liza make way too many small errors that add up. Evgenia really deserves more credit. The reality is, even when she totally misses, she's still scoring very high thanks to the judges.

EDIT: Also wanted to note that my most important takeaway from Rostelecom Cup was that Sasha may not be as unbeatable as she seems to be. No doubt her quads are impressive and if she's clean, no one stands a chance. But she hasn't skated all the quads cleanly yet and from the scoring, she's very beatable by Alena and possibly even Anna. Things will be interesting if Sasha cannot clean up the 4S and 3Lz+3Lo. I'm sure Alena and Anna are hungry to overtake her!
 

Spirals for Miles

Anna Shcherbakova is my World Champion
Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 25, 2017
Agree with all of that apart from Alyona's 3A being weaker than Rika's. She has landed it (UR or not) everytime she has tried it, a 100% success rating.

And she currently has her lutzes, which allows her to skate a harder layout with higher BV than Rika currently.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
#2/3 - Rika & Alena are pretty interchangeable for me, but Alena has been more consistent and holds a higher SB (with PCS rising). Alena should be higher in PCS, but actually not yet in the judges' eyes (Rika has been receiving higher PCS). However, I'm not sure it's fair to say that Rika without her step-out would get into the mid-230's and beat a clean Alena when Alena's non-clean score is already in the mid-230's. If both are clean, Alena has the edge on GOE's and base value from her lutzes.

They’re only interchangeable if Kihira is still leaving the lutz out of her programs. With a lutz, she’s ahead of Kostornaia. Also, Kihira has been consistent, as well. It was easy to assume from Kostornaia’s 78 score in the Challenger that Kostornaia will score in the mid-80s with a 3A. But a 3A is not the same as a 2A and Kostornaia is struggling with the rotation on the 3A. Kostornaia gets significantly higher GOES than Kihira on the 3F and on the donut spin. They’re about even on other elements with Kihira getting higher on the 3A. A clean Kihira without a lutz is virtually even with a clean Kostornaia with one.

#7/8 - I also placed Mariah above Liza in my ranking but after Rostelecom Cup, I may slot Liza back up higher. Mariah's jumps were very questionable and borderline. Her bronze was a great accomplishment, but was mostly due to a weaker field.

I’m willing to bet good money that no one was talking about Bell making the podium at either of her GPs a month ago. GP France was especially tough (Kostornaia, Zagitova, and Sakamoto) and in Russia she had to battle for the bronze with Miyahara. For skaters 1-5, you could say Russia was a weaker field, but not for Bell. I have Bell above Tuktamysheva because her overall results are stronger. It’s also not clear if Tuktamysheva will beat her in a head-to-head. Tennell beat her earlier and Bell has similar scoring potential.

#9 - Curious as to why Evgenia is still being ranked so lowly? She put out two clean programs that were very well received by the judges. She scored 20 points more than Mariah at the same competition, so I'm not sure I would still put her below Mariah. She's scoring much higher than #5-8 on this list! Shanghai Trophy aside (where she was sick and just not ready early season), she really only had one miss this season (SP at Skate Canada) so I'm not too convinced about the inconsistency narrative. Alina was slaughtered by the panels, Bradie slipped and omitted an entire jumping pass, and Mariah and Liza make way too many small errors that add up. Evgenia really deserves more credit. The reality is, even when she totally misses, she's still scoring very high thanks to the judges.

My ranking isn’t based on scores alone and skaters 5-8 have better results than Medvedeva. Who qualified for GPF? Medvedeva or Tennell? Tennell also beat Medvedeva at Skate Canada; hence, there’s no reason for me to rank Medvedeva above her. Who made the podium in both GPs? Medvedeva or Bell? Medvedeva or Tuktamysheva? Medvedeva is ranked as #9 on my list because the eight skaters above her have stronger, more consistent results. They make mistakes, yes, but unlike Medvedeva, they haven’t had a disastrous skate either. In my preliminary ranking list (before GPs began), I had Medvedeva ranked as #4 because of her reputation and how the judges score her. Reputation can be as powerful as a 3A or quad but that can only take you so far. As we've seen, you still have to bring it at the right times.



EDIT: Also wanted to note that my most important takeaway from Rostelecom Cup was that Sasha may not be as unbeatable as she seems to be.

Trusova is definitely not unbeatable and I was one of the few saying so in my rankings from the very start. Four quads is risky, but she needs the fourth quad as a safety cushion. Three quads with a fall and she loses to a clean Kihira, Kostornaia, Scherbakova. Four quads with a fall gives her some leeway.
 

Tavi...

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 10, 2014
^ What exactly are these power rankings intended to show?

Bradie, much as I love her and root for, just fell on her butt twice at Warsaw Cup and although she took silver, scored only 189. She was beaten by someone who’s been skating junior all year. You can say she had one bad program and I would agree with you. But the same weekend, Evgenia took silver at a higher stakes competition with two clean programs and a much higher score - 226, and scored only about 9 points behind Sasha. Home cooking? Maybe, but let’s look at Bradie at SA: she scored 216, 11+ points behind Anna. Finally, regarding their head to head: Evgenia’s one bad program came at Skate Canada, where Bradie also skated. Bradie placed 4th (211) and Evgenia placed 5th (209). Both of them were far behind Sasha, who won with 240 points - but they were a lot closer point and placement wise than either of them were to Sasha. And in fact, although Bradie was about 10 points higher in the SP than Evgenia, the reverse was true in the FS. And the fact that Bradie - not Evgenia - is going to the GPF is solely due to that 2 point difference.

So basically, I don’t really see anything that explains why you would rank Bradie so much higher than Evgenia.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
They’re only interchangeable if Kihira is still leaving the lutz out of her programs. With a lutz, she’s ahead of Kostornaia. Also, Kihira has been consistent, as well. It was easy to assume from Kostornaia’s 78 score in the Challenger that Kostornaia will score in the mid-80s with a 3A. But a 3A is not the same as a 2A and Kostornaia is struggling with the rotation on the 3A. Kostornaia gets significantly higher GOES than Kihira on the 3F and on the donut spin. They’re about even on other elements with Kihira getting higher on the 3A. A clean Kihira without a lutz is virtually even with a clean Kostornaia with one.



I’m willing to bet good money that no one was talking about Bell making the podium at either of her GPs a month ago. GP France was especially tough (Kostornaia, Zagitova, and Sakamoto) and in Russia she had to battle for the bronze with Miyahara. For skaters 1-5, you could say Russia was a weaker field, but not for Bell. I have Bell above Tuktamysheva because her overall results are stronger. It’s also not clear if Tuktamysheva will beat her in a head-to-head. Tennell beat her earlier and Bell has similar scoring potential.



My ranking isn’t based on scores alone and skaters 5-8 have better results than Medvedeva. Who qualified for GPF? Medvedeva or Tennell? Tennell also beat Medvedeva at Skate Canada; hence, there’s no reason for me to rank Medvedeva above her. Who made the podium in both GPs? Medvedeva or Bell? Medvedeva or Tuktamysheva? Medvedeva is ranked as #9 on my list because the eight skaters above her have stronger, more consistent results. They make mistakes, yes, but unlike Medvedeva, they haven’t had a disastrous skate either. In my preliminary ranking list (before GPs began), I had Medvedeva ranked as #4 because of her reputation and how the judges score her. Reputation can be as powerful as a 3A or quad but that can only take you so far. As we've seen, you still have to bring it at the right times.





Trusova is definitely not unbeatable and I was one of the few saying so in my rankings from the very start. Four quads is risky, but she needs the fourth quad as a safety cushion. Three quads with a fall and she loses to a clean Kihira, Kostornaia, Scherbakova. Four quads with a fall gives her some leeway.

Thanks for the response! I hope you don't find offense in my "arguments" - I'm personally a geek about this stuff so it's fun for me to hear peoples' opinions to see if we can convince each other or agree to disagree.

Rika/Alena
I think the Rika/Alena comparison is a toughie and will simply come down to who's cleaner on the day. I'm just not sure why you think Alena is only equal to Rika without her lutzes.

Why I think Alena deserves the slight edge is because at the micro-level, Alena's team strategically maximizes points and scores (which lead to results). Both score around the same in PCS. Both have 3 3A's; Rika's are cleaner, but landed less frequently & Alena's are at 100% success, but sometimes UR. Both score similarly in jump GOE's, but Alena's spin GOE's deservedly are receiving higher marks across the board. Assuming Rika adds back her lutzes and backloads them whenever possible, Rika's SP & FS base values are 37.29 & 69.49, while Alena's are 37.65 & 70.15.

They are so so close, with Alena just marginally higher. And because Rika does not currently have the lutzes (BV without are 36.19 & 65.97), Alena sneaks up ahead even with the UR in her SP 3A (36.05 & 70.15). If you're going to give the benefit of the doubt that Rika will get back all the lutzes, you need to give some benefit of the doubt too that Alena will clean up the UR.

Mariah
Most of us did not have Mariah on the podiums because we were not expecting Elizabet to withdraw and Kaori to underperform, not necessarily because we were not expecting Mariah to do well. Definitely credit to her improvements, but results wise she and Liza both placed 3 & 3 with nearly the same scores. I will concede that I got very subjective here, and seeing the scratchy iffy landings from Mariah at Rostelecom got me worried.

Evgenia
Thus far, I'm still not entirely convinced Evgenia's results are that much worse than #5-8. Alina's had one competition so far, earning Silver. Evgenia matched that with a Silver of her own (but with cleaner and higher scoring skates).

Bradie beat Evgenia head to head at Skate Canada yes, but only by 2 pts (and that's with a Evgenia "meltdown"). Again since they're so close results wise, looking at scores Evgenia's recent score has Bradie beat.

Mariah's been solid yes but I'm not sure that she's definitively ahead. Using your Bradie argument, Evgenia beat Mariah with a 10 pt margin, so why would you rank Mariah higher?

I know scores are hard to compare across competitions, but so are placements across competitions. Scores get you the placement results though. For comparison, here are their GP averages, and overall season averages:

SkaterGP AverageOverall AverageGP PlacementsCS Placements
Evgenia217.69211.155, 22, 1*
Bradie213.73205.492, 42
Liza207.54210.503, 32, 2
Mariah209.28207.903, 31

*Evgenia's 1st was Shanghai Trophy, where she scored pretty low.

I just think people unfairly looked at one or two "bad" programs and tainted that as Evgenia's entire reputation when in reality she's still scoring higher in SB and on average. The overall score counts, not the individual SP or FS score.

And if we talk solely about placement results, Satoko had 2nd + 4th at GP, and 1st at CS. She's 1st alternate into GPF after Bradie, yet she's off your ranking list. Therefore without looking at scores, it's misleading.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
So basically, I don’t really see anything that explains why you would rank Bradie so much higher than Evgenia.

I was clear on my reasoning of ranking Tennell higher than Medvedeva. I even specifically said I’m not going off scores alone. Again, Tennell’s results are stronger than Medvedeva’s. She already beat her and she qualified to GPF over her. Those are my reasons. They’re competitive scores are also very close. Off the top of my head:

Medvedeva: 217, 191, 209, 225
Tennell: 216, 211, 189

There’s no reason for me to rank Medvedeva higher when there’s also Bell and Tuktamysheva between her and Tennell and they also have stronger results. In fact, I almost placed her at #10, but I want to see another competition from Young.
 

Mishaminion

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
I don't understand the "Alyona is struggling with her 3A" ?

She has one of the best Triple Axel landing success rates ever, despite slight URs on some, 6 out of 6 so far in just two competitions. I have no doubt she can and will polish up her landings and air position now she has a few under her belt.
 

lusterfan

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 23, 2018
I was clear on my reasoning of ranking Tennell higher than Medvedeva. I even specifically said I’m not going off scores alone. Again, Tennell’s results are stronger than Medvedeva’s. She already beat her and she qualified to GPF over her. Those are my reasons. They’re competitive scores are also very close. Off the top of my head:

Medvedeva: 217, 191, 209, 225
Tennell: 216, 211, 189

There’s no reason for me to rank Medvedeva higher when there’s also Bell and Tuktamysheva between her and Tennell and they also have stronger results. In fact, I almost placed her at #10, but I want to see another competition from Young.

How do you define "stronger results" if scores are not used - just placements? I just fail to see how their results tell you anything as they're all around the same (see above).

"She already beat her" isn't that strong a reason in one sole competition where they were neck in neck. But also why don't you use that logic for Evgenia beating Mariah? The fact that you even considered placing Evgenia below Young is just questionable to me. Satoko beat Young at US Classic, yet for you Young is #10 and Satoko off the list. At the same competition where Bradie beat Evgenia, Young beat Bradie, but you have Young so low and Bradie so high. No offense, but you can't cite your reason for x but not also apply it also to y and z.

Satoko lost to Bradie in a tiebreaker due to scores, which you're not keen on using. Had Satoko qualified instead (entirely because of scores), would you move Satoko all the way up to #6?
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
Thanks for the response! I hope you don't find offense in my "arguments.”

Not offended in the slightest!

lusterfan said:
Rika/Alena
I think the Rika/Alena comparison is a toughie and will simply come down to who's cleaner on the day. I'm just not sure why you think Alena is only equal to Rika without her lutzes.

Because without a lutz, her scores are already comparable to Kostornaia’s. Her highest scoring element - the 3A is also stronger and cleaner. Kihira’s lutz is actually her best jump and there’s no question about the edge. So with all things being even, Kihira will beat Kostornaia on tech, especially in the SP. You can’t go by BV alone. You had a higher BV than Kihira, for instance, and Kihira still beat her on TES without a lutz.

lusterfan said:
If you're going to give the benefit of the doubt that Rika will get back all the lutzes, you need to give some benefit of the doubt too that Alena will clean up the UR.

No, I don’t. Kihira can already land a lutz. Fixing a UR on a 3A is going to be much harder.

lusterfan said:
Evgenia
Thus far, I'm still not entirely convinced Evgenia's results are that much worse than #5-8. Alina's had one competition so far, earning Silver. Evgenia matched that with a Silver of her own (but with cleaner and higher scoring skates).

Alina’s only done one competitive skate so far. I forgot what she scored (unable to look it up right now) but I think it was 217 with a fall-not quite a fall-in the FS. That’s a great score (if I’m remembering correctly) and higher than half of Medvedeva’s. Let’s say Zagitova bombs her skate at NHK (heaven’s forbid), and scores a 185 and doesn’t make GPF. I’ll move her below Tennell but ahead of Bell.

lusterfan said:
Mariah's been solid yes but I'm not sure that she's definitively ahead. Using your Bradie argument, Evgenia beat Mariah with a 10 pt margin, so why would you rank Mariah higher?

But I didn’t rank Bradie higher only because she beat Medvedeva. She has stronger results. When I say results, I’m not talking about scores alone. I’m talking about results . Bell’s two bronzes is stronger than Medvedeva’s 5+2. I don’t know how I can make myself clearer. She also hasn’t had any meltdowns. On the contrary, she held her own in tough fields. Had she had a meltdown and been off the podium in Russia, I would have had her and Medvedeva switched.

lusterfan said:
I just think people unfairly looked at one or two "bad" programs and tainted that as Evgenia's entire reputation when in reality she's still scoring higher in SB and on average.

Two bad programs is a lot when you’ve competed four times. I think people are quick to over-value one skater while underestimating another. It’s why people are so surprised when a so-called “upset” happens. Can Sakamoto (not even on my list) beat Trusova? Hell naw. Can she beat Zagitova? Absolutely.

luster said:
And if we talk solely about placement results, Satoko had 2nd + 4th at GP, and 1st at CS. She's 1st alternate into GPF after Bradie, yet she's off your ranking list. Therefore without looking at scores, it's misleading.

A lot of other posters are grouping skaters into one ranking. I am not. My ranking list is limited to 10 skaters and Miyahara dropped off my top 10.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
I don't understand the "Alyona is struggling with her 3A" ?

At least two of her 3As were UR. And those are just the ones that were called. That’s why I’m saying she’s struggling with it - the rotation is a problem. She’s landing them, sure, but so is Kihira and she doesn’t have a problem with UR. She could fix it, but URs are not something you can fix overnight.
 
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