2019-20 Ladies' power ranking

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
She's been landing her 3a for months. The only reason it is just now known to the public is because she's ready to unleash it in competition and it's stable enough.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
She's been landing her 3a for months. The only reason it is just now known to the public is because she's ready to unleash it in competition and it's stable enough.

The YouTube channel that goes by the name 'Alexandra Trusova' says that it's the first 3A she's landed. Who knows?
 

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
The first time that she has landed it that was made visible to the public, yes. But definitely not the first time ever ;)
 

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
There’s no way she just happened to land her first 3A ever a mere few hours after Aliona almost broke her WR. Team Tutberidze is strategic with what they post/don’t post on their social media accounts. I can only assume this means it is ready to be put in her program for GPF. I am thinking it will be in the SP for sure, but not 100% about whether I think it will be in the LP too. We will find out in less than 2 weeks!
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
There’s no way she just happened to land her first 3A ever a mere few hours after Aliona almost broke her WR. Team Tutberidze is strategic with what they post/don’t post on their social media accounts. I can only assume this means it is ready to be put in her program for GPF. I am thinking it will be in the SP for sure, but not 100% about whether I think it will be in the LP too. We will find out in less than 2 weeks!

I didn't realize that it was Eteri's instagram that posted it until something was said on the NBC broadcast. It wouldn't have killed them to wait a day or 2 and not steal the thunder from Kostornaia's NHK victory.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
There’s no way she just happened to land her first 3A ever a mere few hours after Aliona almost broke her WR. Team Tutberidze is strategic with what they post/don’t post on their social media accounts. I can only assume this means it is ready to be put in her program for GPF. I am thinking it will be in the SP for sure, but not 100% about whether I think it will be in the LP too. We will find out in less than 2 weeks!

It's not impossible. We don't know. As you said, we'll find out soon enough.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
1. Alexandra Trusova (no change): With her high base value and consistency with landing quads, Trusova is the clear front-runner going into GPF. If she’s clean, she will win. But that’s a big if and she hasn’t been clean yet; in fact, of the top four skaters, she’s had the messiest skates. She has room for error, but not that much room. #2 and 3 can beat her with mistakes. On to GPF!

2. Alena Kostornaia (+1): She’s the top qualifier going into GPF. That means she scored higher than Trusova in one her GPs. She still has a problem with fully rotating her 3As and that will be costly depending on the technical panel. Everything else is beautiful, though, and she can beat Trusova. On to GPF!

3. Rika Kihira (-1): Without a lutz, Kihira’s score is capped at around 235 with clean skates. That’s a very competitive score, but she needs to up the difficulty of her layout if she wants to challenge for the gold at GPF. I never want to see a 2A+2T+2Lo from her again. That’s just as bad as Tuktamysheva’s 3Lz+2A. She knows where she stands as she competed against all of the GPF finalists already save for Scherbakova – and she can beat her without a lutz. She made a little history at NHK and she still has the best – and most solid - 3A in the field. On to GPF!

I enjoyed myself immensely watching NHK. I hope to see a years-long rivalry with these three, especially a Kostornaia-Kihira rivalry.

4. Anna Scherbakova (no change) : There’s a gap between her and the top 3. She doesn’t quite have Trusova’s BV and she doesn’t have the PCS or SP cushion that Kihira and Kostornaia have. With a major error in the FS and/or a non-blind technical panel, a skater that can comfortably score over 215 can beat her. On to GPF!

5. Alina Zagitova (no change): She doesn’t have a 3A or quad, but I consider her to be a serious podium threat at GPF. She needs to be squeaky clean and others need to make mistakes, but that can certainly happen, though they’ve been pretty solid so far. On to GPF!

6. Bradie Tennell (no change) : She joins Zagitova as the only qualifier without a 3A or quad. Unlike Zagitova, though, I don’t consider her a realistic podium threat. She consistently URs and that will definitely hurt her score. If she’s clean except for URs, though, I can see her picking up an SB. I can also see her beating a few above her in the SP. She strikes me as someone with solid competitive nerves and I don’t see her crumbling under pressure in this field. On to GPF!

7. Mariah Bell (no change):

8. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (no change)

9. Evgenia Medvedeva (no change)

10. Young You (no change)

Unless something incredibly unusual happens at GPF, I don’t expect to make major changes to my ranking. The top five may be switched around, but I’m expecting that the top five will still be in the top five after GPF. Major updates will happen after each Nationals. For the first time in over a decade that I will be watching a Nationals outside of Japan and Russia.
 

theharleyquinn

Medalist
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
I'm interested in what people think. Alena won GPF, broke the WR, has proven her consistency, and now has some of the most competitive PCS scores of the ladies. However, Anna and Sasha have debuted 4F that look, honestly, pretty good. And Sasha may not be consistent with a fully rotated 3A but it may not be far off. Anna's PCS is also rising. I'd feel comfortable tying Alena and Sasha for now.
 

skatenewbie

Medalist
Joined
Mar 16, 2017
I'm interested in what people think. Alena won GPF, broke the WR, has proven her consistency, and now has some of the most competitive PCS scores of the ladies. However, Anna and Sasha have debuted 4F that look, honestly, pretty good. And Sasha may not be consistent with a fully rotated 3A but it may not be far off. Anna's PCS is also rising. I'd feel comfortable tying Alena and Sasha for now.
Alena almost reach her highest scoring potential, she already skate 2 clean programs and did not score 250+ by Worlds she could break that but not by much (only from extra PCS and GOE, so at max ~5-7 points?) So Sasha still control her own destiny after all. I think she need more competition to get used to new layout since debuting 2 new element is not easy. I wont be surprised if she remove that 3A if she's not getting it right and also replacing that 4S with 4F. Sasha also get hurt by not able to do -3Lo combo right now. Anna also upped her potential scoring now that she introduced 4F, but she need to land it first. Rika also start to attempt that 4S which will make it more interesting. But she need to land that too and not messed her SP
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
Alena almost reach her highest scoring potential, she already skate 2 clean programs and did not score 250+ by Worlds she could break that but not by much (only from extra PCS and GOE, so at max ~5-7 points?) So Sasha still control her own destiny after all. I think she need more competition to get used to new layout since debuting 2 new element is not easy. I wont be surprised if she remove that 3A if she's not getting it right and also replacing that 4S with 4F. Sasha also get hurt by not able to do -3Lo combo right now. Anna also upped her potential scoring now that she introduced 4F, but she need to land it first. Rika also start to attempt that 4S which will make it more interesting. But she need to land that too and not messed her SP

Even without landing the 4F Anna positively impacted her TES because she switched out 1 of her double axels:
For the FS in her GP events her 2 2A's score with the GOE: 4.10, 4.15 (2 times), and 4.20.
GPF with a fall on the 4F she got 5.50, even subtracting out the 1 point for the fall and she got 4.50. So she got .3 of a point more than doing a clean 2A.
 

lzxnl

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Sasha hasn't remotely hit her scoring cap; she popped a 4S and fell on a 3A, so if she somehow lands those two in three months time, which is quite achievable, she's still miles ahead of Alena. That said, that's not given at all, so I'll have to monitor those two at Russian Nationals.

For the time being, I'd put Anna ahead of Rika because the latter isn't in great condition now with that left foot. I hope Rika takes a well-deserved break from competition and comes back firing at Worlds with lutzes and quad in hand. Rika's determination to do her best with the feet she has is incredible.

Alina...who knows what's happening with her? Perhaps it is a mental block, as her short was fine, and she's had meltdowns before and recovered from them. However, there are indications the judges aren't going to be so friendly with her technical infractions in the future, so it'll be interesting to see if we even see her again this season. Ah the tragedy of the depth of Russian ladies' skating.

Liza could headline the rest of the field if she can land her jumps plus the 4T, however that would require her to get a much more sensible jump layout.

Evgenia is also quite close, but she needs something extra next season. Pretty much everyone else from here on down needs a 3A or a quad to be relevant, as a Rika Kihira with both is still struggling to stay near the top.

The tiers in ladies' skating seem to have been set. You have Eteri's former juniors and Rika in a tier of their own, then Alina/Evgenia/Liza/Bradie/Satoko/Kaori (if the latter two get their jumps sorted), then the rest.

It's hard to say where Tursynbaeva would place. Give her the extra jump that she lost at Worlds and if she lands the 4S, she's somewhere between tiers A and B.
 

samkrut@mail.ru

Medalist
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 26, 2014
#1-3 Alexandra Trusova (235 - 250) -1

#1-3 Alyona Kostornaya (235 - 250)

#1-3 Anna Scherbakova (235 - 250) +2

The amazing trio leaves not much suspense about who will be Russian team. With the quad risk Sasha and Anna take Alena may keep winning. However, if Sasha starts to land 3A this will change everything in her favor.


#4 Rika Kihira (220 - 235) -1 Rika's performance at GPF shows signs of issues. The consequences of the injury? Puberty? She is brave going for 4S. May be, when, then we could say that she can be competitive with 3A

#5-6 Alina Zagitova (220 - 230) -0.5

#5-6 Evgeniya Medvedeva (220 - 230) +0.5

With all due respect I see very unlikely for either of them to be in the team. The season will be likely over after the Nationals. That's why they signed up for shows

#7 Young You (215-225)

#8-9 Bradie Tennell (210 - 220)


#8-9 Mariah Bell (210 - 220)


#10 -11 Satoko Miyahara (205 - 215)


#10-11 Kaori Sakamoto (205 - 215)
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
samkrut@mail.ru
You're overestimating Young You IMO - as she never landed rotated 3A in her life (she always was at mercy of TP which were willing to overlook it - but how long it can continue? She is bound to meet Liu's destiny in GPF eventually) and pretty inconsistent.
Also I would return Tuktamysheva to your list - before RusNat she became quite relevant again. Moreover, I would put her above both Medvedeva and Zagitova for now - as she has higher scoring potential and Russian judges definitely will like her more than judges at GP events.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
1. Alena Kostornaia (+1): She beat her compatriots and by a comfortable margin. The only downside is that her scores are maxed out at 250 – feels odd to write that - and she has no room for error.

2. Anna Scherbakova (+2): She added another quad, which is exactly what she needed to give herself more wiggle room. She’s also proven that she can score a 75+ SP if she’s on, meaning that a 3A is not necessary for now. Because of her more stable layout, consistency with her 4Lz, and higher PCS, I think she's more likely to beat Kostornaia than Trusova.

3. Alexandra Trusova (-2): Increasing her base value is having an ironic and adverse effect: the higher it is, the lower her scores. Going for the 3A when it’s clearly not competition-ready was not brave, but silly. It turns out that she didn’t even lose the gold medal with that harebrained decision, but possibly the silver. Work the 3A for Worlds because she needs to ensure she is in the first warmup group going into the FS. Tighten up the 4S or take it out entirely.

4. Rika Kihira (-1): The injury is more serious than I thought (tendon tear) and the effects are starting to show in her performance. She finally attempted the 4S (fully rotated); however, she needs to fully heal to go into Worlds with skates blazing. Withdrawing from 4CC would be a nice start.

5. Bradie Tennell (+1): Her mental game is why she qualified for GPF and it’s also why she didn’t finish in the requisite last place. (I also won a $20 bet.*) She’s now beaten all of the “Team B” Russian skaters and if she continues to work on her URs, I can see her managing a 220 score with clean skates. That’s obviously no longer enough to podium at Worlds, but it’s enough to podium at 4CC, especially if Kihira chooses to withdraw.


6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (+2): Had a strong showing at Golden Spin. On to RusNats!

7. Alina Zagitova (-2): Her competitive nerves are shaky and it’s why she finished in last place. GPF was the perfect opportunity to beat Trusova for the bronze and that would have given her confidence going into Nationals. As it is though, I’m very certain she will not have a chance to defend her title, but she’s in good company with her compatriots below her.

8. Mariah Bell (-1):


9. Evgenia Medvedeva (no change)

10. Young You (no change)



Unless something incredibly unusual happens at GPF, I don’t expect to make major changes to my ranking. The top five may be switched around, but I’m expecting that the top five will still be in the top five after GPF.

*It was $20 that I really didn't want to win.
 

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
3. Alexandra Trusova (-2): Increasing her base value is having an ironic and adverse effect: the higher it is, the lower her scores. Going for the 3A when it’s clearly not competition-ready was not brave, but silly. It turns out that she didn’t lose the gold medal with that harebrained decision, but the silver. Work the 3A for Worlds because she needs to ensure she is in the first warmup group going into the FS. Tighten up the 4S or take it out entirely.

This is silly. How can you possibly determine that her 3A isn’t ready just based on that one attempt? That’s not a big sample size. For all you know, maybe she has an 80% success rate with her 3A in practice and you just saw the rare few times that she didn’t do it correctly.

She also didn’t lose anything after she fell on the 3A, as she still very clearly controlled her own destiny in the FS. Had she not popped her 4S and fell and under rotated on the 4T, she would have most definitely still won gold, even with that 14 point deficit after the SP.

A peak Sasha score (265-270, at least) is far beyond anything Alena or Anna can reach.
 

YuBluByMe

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 21, 2018
This is silly. How can you possibly determine that her 3A isn’t ready just based on that one attempt? That’s not a big sample size. For all you know, maybe she has an 80% success rate with her 3A in practice and you just saw the rare few times that she didn’t do it correctly. A peak Sasha score (265-270, at least) is far beyond anything Alena or Anna can reach.

Actually , I saw her practices and it's what I based my assessment on. Nearly all of her 3A attempts in practice were falls (some of them very bad falls). She's also not getting the rotations in. What she did in competition was exactly what she was doing in practice. Therefore, it's not ready. Also, I'm fully aware of what her scoring potential is. But I think it's silly to go by that alone when she's nowhere near hitting her hypothetical top score. Yet.
 

ruga

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 20, 2017
PCS and TES ranking after GP final:

PCS:
1. Kostornaia
2. Medvedeva
3. Zagitova
4. Miyahara
5. Kihira
6. Shcherbakova
7. Bell
8. Tennell
9. Sakamoto
10. Trusova
11. Tuktamysheva
12. You

Aliona's components keep on rising and since she is mostly clean, she is not likely to get much less than she has received before.

Medvedeva and Zagitova when completely clean may get equal or better components than her, but they haven't been super consistent and big mistakes affect this score.

Trusova's seemed to be rising but now the number has settled at 33/66. Maybe it will change after she is clean, but it's a hard task since very few skaters can land 5 quads with no major mistakes.

TES:
1. Trusova
2. Shcherbakova
3. Kostornaia
4. Kihira
5. Tuktamysheva
6. Medvedeva
7. Zagitova
8. You
9. Bell
10. Tennell
11. Sakamoto
12. Miyahara

Sasha is a clear leader here, even if she makes mistakes. Her quads are not only landed, but also well executed, she doesn't have chronic edge or underrotation issues

Anna with three quads and ambutous layout is following her teammate closely, but she's more prone to underrotations and worse landings in general.

Aliona gets pretty close to Anna since she has 3x3A and gets very good GOEs for all elements.

Rika may improve her position once she gets lutz back and has an okay 4S attempt.

Elizaveta is a dark horse, she currently does 3As and has 4T, but judges do not seem to like her execution.

Zagitova can be really great when clean, but she underrotates sometimes and isn't super consistent compared to her teammates.
 

SkatingFan9

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 13, 2019
Actually , I saw her practices and it's what I based my assessment on. Nearly all of her 3A attempts in practice were falls (some of them very bad falls). She's also not getting the rotations in. It's not ready. Also, I'm fully aware of what her scoring potential is. But I think it's silly to go by that alone when she's nowhere near hitting her hypothetical top score. Yet.

You only saw a limited number of attempts. You need a much bigger sample than that to be able to boldly claim that her 3A isn’t competition ready. Alena, for instance, fell constantly on her 3A in a recent practice in the open. She was in tears. The point is, you can’t boldly claim that ones jump isn’t ready based on a limited number of attempts.
 

Ziotic

Medalist
Joined
Dec 23, 2016
You only saw a limited number of attempts. You need a much bigger sample than that to be able to boldly claim that her 3A isn’t competition ready. Alena, for instance, fell constantly on her 3A in a recent practice in the open. She was in tears. The point is, you can’t boldly claim that ones jump isn’t ready based on a limited number of attempts.

Maybe you need a larger sample, but I could tell that jump wasn’t competition ready too.

3A requires a different kind of rotation than quads. You can’t cheat the takeoff the same and Sasha isn’t landing it because she’s using her arms for rotation too much.

It causes her left side to drop and she can’t check out on the landing. She’s jumping into the circle too much to get the rotation. It will continue to be an issue unless she can straighten out the takeoff.
 
Top