2020-21 (and -22) Ladies' skating predictions/rankings

[chasingneverland]

I'm not sure what you thought I was implying there.

I am aware of what goes behind the scenes in figure skating judging.

Oops sorry. I actually didn't mean to reply to you haha. But yeah, I agree with you.

 

[Skatesocs]

SK [can get] 3 spots

I don't see any possible way for SK to get 3 spots. The Top 6 is locked in: Kim Yelim and Lee Haien going 7 + 8 already won't be enough.

 

[Jeanie19]

I don't see any possible way for SK to get 3 spots. The Top 6 is locked in: Kim Yelim and Lee Haien going 7 + 8 already won't be enough.

Never say never. Figure skating always seems to surprise us.

 

[Ziotic]

I don't see any possible way for SK to get 3 spots. The Top 6 is locked in: Kim Yelim and Lee Haien going 7 + 8 already won't be enough.

Nothing is “locked” in. Remember that time Sasha scored under 200 with here disaster at Rostelcom. That would have her out of the top 10.
Rika
Anna
Kaori
Bradie
Liza
Yelim
Haein
Leona
Satoko
Karen
All have scored over 200.

 

[chasingneverland]

I don't think it's impossible - it is unlikely though. If everyone skates to potential it won't happen. But ice is slippery. If only Young You had gotten her jumps back as stable as they were last year..

 

[chasingneverland]

Nothing is “locked” in. Remember that time Sasha scored under 200 with here disaster at Rostelcom. That would have her out of the top 10.
Rika
Anna
Kaori
Bradie
Liza
Yelim
Haein
Leona
Satoko
Karen
All have scored over 200.

Yeah but that's comparing someone's worst skate to the other's best (with the exception of the very top). Also Sasha will have a more conservative layout at World's and will have had time to heal.

It's MUCH more likely that one of Kaori, Bradie, Liza T score under 200 than one of Anna/Sasha/Rika do. Also I don't think 200 is necessarily a good indicator for three spots for next year..

 

[Skatesocs]

Nothing is “locked” in.

Lol. Sure.

 

[Dawn825]

Yeah but that's comparing someone's worst skate to the other's best (with the exception of the very top). Also Sasha will have a more conservative layout at World's and will have had time to heal.

It's MUCH more likely that one of Kaori, Bradie, Liza T score under 200 than one of Anna/Sasha/Rika do. Also I don't think 200 is necessarily a good indicator for three spots for next year..

I don't think they're saying it's likely, just that it's possible. Which is technically true. Everyone's predictions here have come with the caveat "barring any major meltdowns". I wonder if the lack of audience makes it more likely that skaters won't be nervous and will skate clean? Or if like Aliona at RCF, attending a competition with a full field of challengers after so long will cause the non Russian skaters (who have competed a full season) to feel unprepared and bomb?

 

[Skatesocs]

It's really interesting to see this and what we all kind of thought back in August. So much have changed.

Yes, this is why I wanted to make this thread! Always fun to look back through the season, and see what happened, and what we thought as time passed... well maybe next season we'll have more participation.

 

[chasingneverland]

I don't think they're saying it's likely, just that it's possible. Which is technically true. Everyone's predictions here have come with the caveat "barring any major meltdowns". I wonder if the lack of audience makes it more likely that skaters won't be nervous and will skate clean? Or if like Aliona at RCF, attending a competition with a full field of challengers after so long will cause the non Russian skaters (who have competed a full season) to feel unprepared and bomb?

Well I think it depends what you call a major meltdown. I think Anna, Sasha, and Rika would call a meltdown falling on one of their "ultra-c" elements, as they're called here. However, they can do that and still take the top 3 as long as they rotate everything and land everything else. Depending on layouts they could fall twice - which they would call a major meltdown - and which as long as it's rotated would still put them out of reach of the next tier of skaters - although not that they or their coaches would be happy in the slightest. And the same is in effect for the next tier of skaters. Bradie, Kaori, and Liza can get 220+ even with underrotations, messy landings, edge calls, and popped jumps. That's still 20 points above Yelim's and Haein's PBs. So really they don't even need to be clean. Kaori's had a 145 in the FS WITH a popped 3F (into a 1F).

 

[Jontor]

I don't think they're saying it's likely, just that it's possible. Which is technically true. Everyone's predictions here have come with the caveat "barring any major meltdowns". I wonder if the lack of audience makes it more likely that skaters won't be nervous and will skate clean? Or if like Aliona at RCF, attending a competition with a full field of challengers after so long will cause the non Russian skaters (who have competed a full season) to feel unprepared and bomb?

I think the lack of audience can go either way. Anna, for example, gave a lot of credit to the audience after her clean free skate at Nationals. She said she was feeding off the energy that the audience gave her. Maybe she's the type that needs the audience to do well.

 

[[email protected]]

The second part of your post is less about politics and more with the fact that in sports, the “names“ get the calls.

Because Russia is the undisputed best in the world, they will get the benefit of the doubt. Just like Bayern will get the benefit of the doubt in a match against Koln. Benefits of the doubt are earned because of continued excellence.

In this game, the Russian ladies are Bayern Munich times 5.

I don't get this ongoing whining about the Russians not being called. Last year I showed here very dubious (to put it mildly) edge by Mariah Bell that was not called. I can't remember anyone here paying attention to that. I would not care as well if it were not for the non-stop whining about "Eteri bonus" and "the Russians are overscored". Was Kaori called recently? Was Kaetlyn whose lutz edge was similar to Zhenya's called more often than Medvedeva. Etc. etc.

 

[chasingneverland]

I don't get this ongoing whining about the Russians not being called. Last year I showed here very dubious (to put it mildly) edge by Mariah Bell that was not called. I can't remember anyone here paying attention to that. I would not care as well if it were not for the non-stop whining about "Eteri bonus" and "the Russians are overscored". Was Kaori called recently? Was Kaetlyn whose lutz edge was similar to Zhenya's called more often than Medvedeva. Etc. etc.

That's why I said it's not just the Russians. It's all the top skaters of powerful federations. The US, Japan, and Canada are definitely powerful federations. And it's cyclical - not getting called means you're more likely to not be called later. Mariah Bell and Kaori especially are beloved by their federations (look at their domestic scoring for example) - even over other skaters in their own countries and both of them do have reputations and name recognition.

 

[chasingneverland]

Hmm, so I thought Rika would do a 3A-2T but now she has a 3A-3T and a 3A-Eu-3S. So now I have no idea what her planned layout is haha.

 

[silveruskate]

@chasingneverland you know more about judging than me, since the technical caller is the one making all the important calls, isn't that person distinct from all the other judges? In terms of their selection/pay. How does that link in with the situation you described before?

 

[silveruskate]

I think in 2022 other skaters might be called to make sure Valieva wins. She's the complete package, and her skating could transcend the sport and help it break through.

 

[kirauza343]

I think in 2022 other skaters might be called to make sure Valieva wins. She's the complete package, and her skating could transcend the sport and help it break through.

Because that’s exactly what will make figure skating more popular: rigged competitions

 

[silveruskate]

Because that’s exactly what will make figure skating more popular: rigged competitions

Actually it would be unrigged in that case. Valieva doesn't have calls that can be made against her. She has the edges and no questions on rotation.

I'm thinking of Anna's Lutz edge, Sasha's Flip edge, and their and Kihira's rotation.

 

[Skatesocs]

Because that’s exactly what will make figure skating more popular: rigged competitions

Rigged for one; fair for another. Always been the case.

 

[kirauza343]

Actually it would be unrigged in that case. Valieva doesn't have calls that can be made against her. She has the edges and no questions on rotation.

I'm thinking of Anna's Lutz edge, Sasha's Flip edge, and their and Kihira's rotation.

That’s doesn’t mean she always fully rotates her jumps or that her edges are always clear or that her combos deserve the GOE they get. Calling skaters SPECIFICALLY to make another skater win (as you implied) is textbook rigging.