2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[macy]

You are putting a lot of stock in a very limited amount of data, and the only senior competitions she's going to have under her belt is domestic competitions.

i think that comment comes from all her competitive experience as a whole. obviously she hasn't competed as a senior internationally yet, but she's generally done well on the biggest stages she's been at thus far- junior worlds and US nationals. she has been relatively solid and consistent at most of her competitive outings, and i think she's going to be hungry enough next season she won't let nerves get in her way too much.

 

[jenaj]

I don't think Alysa is even close to being a lock. We have no idea how she will score with a senior international panel. She definitely looked better at nationals, but her performance quality was still pretty young. On the jgp, she was often hammered for rotations, so judges may be looking for that. She has a lot to prove before she is named to an Olympic team.

On the JGP, she won her two preliminary events and was on the podium at the final, so I wouldn't say she was "hammered."
ETA: Second at the JGP, third at Junior Worlds. Alysa was on the podium for every international event she entered as a junior.

 

[jenaj]

I thought she won pewter - th . Regardless she is in the mix though who knows in 10 mos what will happen. Karen, Mariah, Bradie and Amber all are capable of beating her. I guess for Gracie fans if she skated like she did in 2014 she too could beat Ms. Liu.

You're right. Sorry. But the US ladies field is pretty weak. I don't expect Amber Glenn, for instance, to repeat her success at Nationals. I remeber seeing her at a B event where she skated really well and I thought she was a real contender. But she was far off the podium that year at Nationals. She is inconsistent. And Alysa is capable of beating all of the top US ladies, too.

 

[Lzbee]

I would trust Alysa to hold her nerve more than Amber or Mariah for Nebelhorn. She skated with the weight of being US champion and the only contender with a chance of beating Kamila in juniors. She didn't lose because she fell apart but rather that there were fundamental issues with her skating skills and jump technique. But she's improved heaps in the skating skills department so even if her underrotations are not resolved by Nebelhorn, she has mitigated one disadvantage already.

On the other hand, it sucks for Amber that it's hard to get opportunities to prove herself because she's been inconsistent. Karen's scores are generally dependent on the tech panel but Mariah is pretty consistent in getting ~200 internationally so Amber really needs to land all her non-ultra-c elements right out the gate next season.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I would trust Alysa to hold her nerve more than Amber or Mariah for Nebelhorn. She skated with the weight of being US champion and the only contender with a chance of beating Kamila in juniors.

If I were the USFSA, I'd want to see these skaters during the summer events before making a decision. Alysa is not done growing and her jumps may actually be worse next year than they were at Nationals. There is usally an assumption that a young skater will be better the following season, but it's often not what actually happens.

 

[Spiralgraph]

If I were the USFSA, I'd want to see these skaters during the summer events before making a decision. Alysa is not done growing and her jumps may actually be worse next year than they were at Nationals. There is usally an assumption that a young skater will be better the following season, but it's often not what actually happens.

I agree. There's a chance that Alysa hasn't stopped growing yet, and just another inch or two might mess up her jumping again. Let's wait to see how all the skaters are progressing by late summer then let TPTB make their choice.

 

[mrrice]

Well, I just worry about her burning out like Ann Patrice McDonough after such a great Junior career.

 

[chuckm]

Ann Patrice had a dragon mother who pushed her far beyond AP's enjoyment of figure skating. It's no wonder she burned out.

 

[Mathman]

If I were the USFSA, I'd want to see these skaters during the summer events before making a decision.

What decision are we speaking about in this discussion? The decision about who to send to the Olympics? I assume that they will wait until after nationals to make a decision about that.

 

[Amei]

What decision are we speaking about in this discussion? The decision about who to send to the Olympics? I assume that they will wait until after nationals to make a decision about that.

We are discussing who to send to Nebelhorn to confirm the 3rd spot for the Olympics. They cannot send Bradie or Karen. Options right now on the surface:
Mariah Bell: does anyone really trust her in competition to not fall apart in this type of situation?
Amber Glenn: track record is about like Mariah's except she's had less competitions, and doesn't have anything fabulous on it
Alysa Liu: She's likely still growing so who knows what kind of shape her jumps would be in at Nebelhorn, plus it's her very first senior international competition. Yes she has domestic senior experience but US nationals isn't that difficult of a field and she had the benefit for 2 years that she won it of having the triple axel and the quad lutz where she could afford mistakes and still do quite well due to her BV. And she (at this point) doesn't have the triple axel or the quad back.


Do you go with 1 of the 2 unknown commodities or do you go with someone that's got a record of under-performing....

 

[Colonel Green]

Alysa Liu: She's likely still growing so who knows what kind of shape her jumps would be in at Nebelhorn, plus it's her very first senior international competition. Yes she has domestic senior experience but US nationals isn't that difficult of a field and she had the benefit for 2 years that she won it of having the triple axel and the quad lutz where she could afford mistakes and still do quite well due to her BV. And she (at this point) doesn't have the triple axel or the quad back.

The other points are valid (particularly in terms of growth), but the field Alysa would hypothetically face at Nebelhorn would be a lower difficulty level than the ones she faced at US nationals thus far (or at her major international junior assignments).

 

[Amei]

The other points are valid (particularly in terms of growth), but the field Alysa would hypothetically face at Nebelhorn would be a lower difficulty level than the ones she faced at US nationals thus far (or at her major international junior assignments).

Are we sure about the field she is going to face? I'm not sure what the rules are with Nebelorn this year since its being used as a qualifier for the final spots at the Olympics. And she didn't exactly fair well on her major international junior assignments, JGPF and Jr Worlds - she competed triple axels and quads which she currently does not have: At the JGPF: lost JGPF to Valieva who didn't compete quad almost lost to Usacheva who doesn't have either jump. Junior Worlds she lost to Valieva and Usacheva, while Valieva did jump a quad Usacheva did not.

 

[Colonel Green]

Are we sure about the field she is going to face? I'm not sure what the rules are with Nebelorn this year since its being used as a qualifier for the final spots at the Olympics.

She'd be competing with, more or less, people who didn't make the free skate at Worlds plus some who either didn't get to compete for other reasons (Safonova, Leung), a French skater, etc.

And she didn't exactly fair well on her major international junior assignments, JGPF and Jr Worlds - she competed triple axels and quads which she currently does not have: At the JGPF: lost JGPF to Valieva who didn't compete quad almost lost to Usacheva who doesn't have either jump. Junior Worlds she lost to Valieva and Usacheva, while Valieva did jump a quad Usacheva did not.

She medaled at both those events, which is plenty impressive. And while she doesn't have the ultra-C elements currently, nobody at Nebelhorn will either. Triples will more than suffice.

 

[natsulian]

For anyone who's interested, results for the 2021 U.S. Championships Series for the Novice, Intermediate, and Juvenile levels were posted a few days ago alongside videos of the top four placements.

https://usfigureskatingfanzone.com/...ntermediate-juvenile-competition-central.aspx

Skaters I really enjoyed: Soho Lee, Elyce Lin-Gracey, Cayetana Gonzalez, Jessica Jurka, Jiaying Johnson, and many more.

Are we sure about the field she is going to face? I'm not sure what the rules are with Nebelorn this year since its being used as a qualifier for the final spots at the Olympics. And she didn't exactly fair well on her major international junior assignments, JGPF and Jr Worlds - she competed triple axels and quads which she currently does not have: At the JGPF: lost JGPF to Valieva who didn't compete quad almost lost to Usacheva who doesn't have either jump. Junior Worlds she lost to Valieva and Usacheva, while Valieva did jump a quad Usacheva did not.

Although Alysa did not win gold at Junior Grand Prix Final or Junior Worlds, she ended her junior debut season with five medals: two gold medals from her Junior Grand Prix events, a silver medal at Junior Grand Prix Final, a bronze medal at Junior Worlds, and a gold at U.S. Nationals. That is highly impressive given the immensely competitive field Alysa faced. Alysa, during a season which you described as not "fair[ing] well" had the 12th highest Mean Event Total score of all ladies and the 2nd highest for all junior ladies. Although Alysa certainly has areas of her skating she needs to improve (which she has), I don't think we should deny credit when it is rightfully earned. Thus, I respectfully disagree that Alysa's showings during the 2019-2020 season were short of "fair." Although an argument can be made regarding whether or not her events were spectacular, I think she did much better than just "fair."

 

[pete]

I think all 3 should get the job done quite easily. It's not like there will be a lot of top skaters there. In 2017 the winner scored 167 points

 

[brightphoton]

I think all 3 should get the job done quite easily. It's not like there will be a lot of top skaters there. In 2017 the winner scored 167 points

Yes, but in 2017, Nebelhorn was just another senior B event. Now for some reason, it's the event where some countries get third spot for the Olympics.

As far as I understand it, because Vincent Zhou didn't qualify for the free program at World's, the US men also have to send a not-Nathan not-Jason person to Nebelhorn to get their third spot. Maybe other countries are in the same situation? Nebelhorn could be far more competitive in 2021

 

[bubblecherry]

I think all 3 should get the job done quite easily. It's not like there will be a lot of top skaters there. In 2017 the winner scored 167 points

Whoever goes is going to need to be around top 10 in that field. Barring an absolute disaster (like, landing 0 triples) that should be super doable. Top ladies won’t be there, and they’re only competing against other countries for spots. Aka Countries that need to qualify their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd spot. It will not be a tough field to qualify the 3rd spot.

 

[sheetz]

As far as I understand it, because Vincent Zhou didn't qualify for the free program at World's, the US men also have to send a not-Nathan not-Jason person to Nebelhorn to get their third spot. Maybe other countries are in the same situation? Nebelhorn could be far more competitive in 2021

The men's event should be much tougher than the ladies'. The Men's event will include USA #3, RUS #3, CAN #2, FRA #2, KOR #2, along with skaters who didn't make the cut at Worlds. Ladies will have USA #3, BEL #2, AUT #2, plus skaters who didn't make the cut (Paganini, Crane, Ma, etc.).

Looking at the potential competition, whoever USA sends would be expected to qualify easily.

 

[Mathman]

We are discussing who to send to Nebelhorn to confirm the 3rd spot for the Olympics.

Thank you. I came too late to the discussion.

I would feel completely confident in sending Alysa. 99% confident about Mariah, and 98% for Amber. I don't think that there will be very many skaters at Nebelhorn who are likely to grab up all the placements.

 

[Dawn825]

Ladies will have USA #3, BEL #2, AUT #2, plus skaters who didn't make the cut (Paganini, Crane, Ma, etc.).

Japan #3 too no? Still shouldn't be hard.