Agreed, they need to place top 6 (of eligible skaters). There aren't that many higher level skaters that'll be there - Paganini, Kurakova, and Safonova come to mind. Others vying for spots include Leung, Craine, whoever the French and Italian feds send, etc.. If Mariah/Amber/Alysa have a really bad competition, they could fall off the podium (behind the three aforementioned higher level skaters), but I can't really see them falling behind another 3 skaters unless they like fall on/pop/downgrade almost all their jumps or somethingThe men's event should be much tougher than the ladies'. The Men's event will include USA #3, RUS #3, CAN #2, FRA #2, KOR #2, along with skaters who didn't make the cut at Worlds. Ladies will have USA #3, BEL #2, AUT #2, plus skaters who didn't make the cut (Paganini, Crane, Ma, etc.).
Looking at the potential competition, whoever USA sends would be expected to qualify easily.
No, it wasn't. It was the fall Olympic qualifier then too. There weren't any countries going for a 2nd/3rd spot, just ones that didn't have spots yet, but it was still an Olympic qualifier.Yes, but in 2017, Nebelhorn was just another senior B event. Now for some reason, it's the event where some countries get third spot for the Olympics.
As far as I understand it, because Vincent Zhou didn't qualify for the free program at World's, the US men also have to send a not-Nathan not-Jason person to Nebelhorn to get their third spot. Maybe other countries are in the same situation? Nebelhorn could be far more competitive in 2021
I think all 3 should get the job done quite easily. It's not like there will be a lot of top skaters there. In 2017 the winner scored 167 points
The field in 2019 was a regular Challenger, as opposed to the Olympic qualifier, so the only relevant skaters competing will be from countries that don't have spots.And in 2019 (the last Nebelhorn Trophy) was 205, which was actually won by Mariah, it's her only senior international 1st place
She was hammered at junior worlds...Usacheva beat her despite base value being like 18 points lower. Had Alysa landed one more 3A or 4Lz she would have beat Daria for silver but she let nerves get to herOn the JGP, she won her two preliminary events and was on the podium at the final, so I wouldn't say she was "hammered."
ETA: Second at the JGP, third at Junior Worlds. Alysa was on the podium for every international event she entered as a junior.
The question with Alysa is was it nerves that got to her, or the jump technique that failed her? She fell on that 4Lz at Junior Worlds which was always a questionable jump (I say this as a fan). At the US Nationals 2020 free skate she went after Mariah Bell who the audience was roaring for. There she under rotated her 4Lz. I'm more inclined to think that was because it was an iffy jump and not nerves considering how she performed the rest of her program.She was hammered at junior worlds...Usacheva beat her despite base value being like 18 points lower. Had Alysa landed one more 3A or 4Lz she would have beat Daria for silver but she let nerves get to her
Everyone has some nerves, but what I've noticed about Alysa is she really seems to love performing and competing. Sometimes that changes with age-perhaps because more is at stake-but while she misses jumps here and there, she is a pretty consistent competitor. Watching Mariah during the practices at US nationals-I thought she had it in the bag. Her run throughs were perfect, and confident-all the jumps solid. What happened to her competing only she knows, but I hope she finds a way to work through the nerves. Still, I think sending Alysa to Nebelhorn is a safer bet .The question with Alysa is was it nerves that got to her, or the jump technique that failed her? She fell on that 4Lz at Junior Worlds which was always a questionable jump (I say this as a fan). At the US Nationals 2020 free skate she went after Mariah Bell who the audience was roaring for. There she under rotated her 4Lz. I'm more inclined to think that was because it was an iffy jump and not nerves considering how she performed the rest of her program.
Of course it's entirely possible that she could handle her nerves fine at US Nationals, but at Junior Worlds, where she faced tougher competition, her nerves got to her. Who knows? But I still wouldn't say she's an especially nervous skater.
I think it's going to be between Alysa and Mariah for Neblehorn. I don't think USFS is ready to trust Amber yet.
I don't see Bradie or Mariah retiring if they're still leading the US ladies but if Alysa manages to take up the torch then maybe. I don't see Amber retiring since she's just had her breakthrough. And if Bradie or Karen get a 3A, I think that would be incentive enough to stay.