2020-21 US Ladies’ Figure Skating

Koatterce

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 20, 2018
Country
Canada
The men's event should be much tougher than the ladies'. The Men's event will include USA #3, RUS #3, CAN #2, FRA #2, KOR #2, along with skaters who didn't make the cut at Worlds. Ladies will have USA #3, BEL #2, AUT #2, plus skaters who didn't make the cut (Paganini, Crane, Ma, etc.).

Looking at the potential competition, whoever USA sends would be expected to qualify easily.
Agreed, they need to place top 6 (of eligible skaters). There aren't that many higher level skaters that'll be there - Paganini, Kurakova, and Safonova come to mind. Others vying for spots include Leung, Craine, whoever the French and Italian feds send, etc.. If Mariah/Amber/Alysa have a really bad competition, they could fall off the podium (behind the three aforementioned higher level skaters), but I can't really see them falling behind another 3 skaters unless they like fall on/pop/downgrade almost all their jumps or something
 

Olympic

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Agreed that ladies will be slightly easier than the men for the US to qualify #3, but the US should qualify #3 in both:

The US can send a well-regarded lady (Bell, Liu, Glenn) to Nebelhorn and they will likely be competing against Tursy (apparently, she skated her programs cleanly at an ice show), Kurakova (POL), Safonova (BLR), Paganini (SUI), and either a healthy Mae or someone like Mazzara (FRA), then Leung (HKG). So, I think a score around 175 gets the job done if you consider PBs.

The one issue w/ the men is that while the top US men are pretty darn good, some of our journeymen ranked #3 and lower can get downright wobbly at times which worries me. I would suggest sending Yaro, Naumov or a healthy Zhou to Nebelhorn. I think Tomoki, Pulkinen and Torgashev are capable but they have really been all over the place lately. The #3 US man has to compete against #3 RUS (Aliev and Samarin are eligible), #2 CAN (Nam or Roman), then Litvintsev (AZE - training w/ Plushy), Fentz (GER), Kerry (AUS), and Siao Him Fa (FRA) or Lee (KOR). The PBs of RUS and CAN are pretty high (well over 250) but the skaters from GER and AZE have PBs of 230, Kerry has 224, and the #2 skaters from FRA and KOR are slightly lower than that, but rising lately. I think the US #3 needs a score of around 230 to comfortably be top 7 which is very doable, but like I said, if our rep is one of the aforementioned wobbly men, all bets are off.
 
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SnowWhite

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 30, 2016
Country
Canada
Yes, but in 2017, Nebelhorn was just another senior B event. Now for some reason, it's the event where some countries get third spot for the Olympics.

As far as I understand it, because Vincent Zhou didn't qualify for the free program at World's, the US men also have to send a not-Nathan not-Jason person to Nebelhorn to get their third spot. Maybe other countries are in the same situation? Nebelhorn could be far more competitive in 2021
No, it wasn't. It was the fall Olympic qualifier then too. There weren't any countries going for a 2nd/3rd spot, just ones that didn't have spots yet, but it was still an Olympic qualifier.
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
I think all 3 should get the job done quite easily. It's not like there will be a lot of top skaters there. In 2017 the winner scored 167 points 🤷‍♀️

And in 2019 (the last Nebelhorn Trophy) was 205, which was actually won by Mariah, it's her only senior international 1st place
 

Colonel Green

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2018
Country
Canada
And in 2019 (the last Nebelhorn Trophy) was 205, which was actually won by Mariah, it's her only senior international 1st place
The field in 2019 was a regular Challenger, as opposed to the Olympic qualifier, so the only relevant skaters competing will be from countries that don't have spots.

For instance, the highest score in 2019 from a skater/country who might theoretically be present in 2021 is Stefanie Pesendorfer, who scored 146.66.
 

lurkerghost1

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 6, 2021
On the JGP, she won her two preliminary events and was on the podium at the final, so I wouldn't say she was "hammered."
ETA: Second at the JGP, third at Junior Worlds. Alysa was on the podium for every international event she entered as a junior.
She was hammered at junior worlds...Usacheva beat her despite base value being like 18 points lower. Had Alysa landed one more 3A or 4Lz she would have beat Daria for silver but she let nerves get to her
 

daffygirl

Spectator
Joined
Mar 6, 2020
She was hammered at junior worlds...Usacheva beat her despite base value being like 18 points lower. Had Alysa landed one more 3A or 4Lz she would have beat Daria for silver but she let nerves get to her
The question with Alysa is was it nerves that got to her, or the jump technique that failed her? She fell on that 4Lz at Junior Worlds which was always a questionable jump (I say this as a fan). At the US Nationals 2020 free skate she went after Mariah Bell who the audience was roaring for. There she under rotated her 4Lz. I'm more inclined to think that was because it was an iffy jump and not nerves considering how she performed the rest of her program.

Of course it's entirely possible that she could handle her nerves fine at US Nationals, but at Junior Worlds, where she faced tougher competition, her nerves got to her. Who knows? But I still wouldn't say she's an especially nervous skater.

I think it's going to be between Alysa and Mariah for Neblehorn. I don't think USFS is ready to trust Amber yet.
 

katymay

Medalist
Joined
Mar 7, 2006
The question with Alysa is was it nerves that got to her, or the jump technique that failed her? She fell on that 4Lz at Junior Worlds which was always a questionable jump (I say this as a fan). At the US Nationals 2020 free skate she went after Mariah Bell who the audience was roaring for. There she under rotated her 4Lz. I'm more inclined to think that was because it was an iffy jump and not nerves considering how she performed the rest of her program.

Of course it's entirely possible that she could handle her nerves fine at US Nationals, but at Junior Worlds, where she faced tougher competition, her nerves got to her. Who knows? But I still wouldn't say she's an especially nervous skater.

I think it's going to be between Alysa and Mariah for Neblehorn. I don't think USFS is ready to trust Amber yet.
Everyone has some nerves, but what I've noticed about Alysa is she really seems to love performing and competing. Sometimes that changes with age-perhaps because more is at stake-but while she misses jumps here and there, she is a pretty consistent competitor. Watching Mariah during the practices at US nationals-I thought she had it in the bag. Her run throughs were perfect, and confident-all the jumps solid. What happened to her competing only she knows, but I hope she finds a way to work through the nerves. Still, I think sending Alysa to Nebelhorn is a safer bet .
 

kirauza343

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
Honestly any of the three should easily be able to do it. Especially since they don’t even need to win! They just have to finish in the top 6 in a field that isn’t very competitive, even more so considering the US is the only large fed competing for an additional spot here (so no worrying about Japanese, Russian, or South Korean skaters).

I do think Alysa is the best choice though. She’s been dependable under pressure and could use every international opportunity she can get to establish herself prior to Beijing (I’d still call her a favorite for the team at this point...I fully believe she’ll have her triple axel back for the Olympic season and even if she doesn’t she still has the strongest tech of the US ladies).
 

Greengemmonster

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 22, 2019
I think Alysa WAS nervous when she was defending her National title that second time. I felt like I could see and feel the nerves on her unlike the year before that when she just romped in with no expectations.

I think the key is that she was nervous but did not have a meltdown. That's what counts. Anyone can be nervous but some people meltdown and so far Alysa has not demonstrated that she's prone to meltdowns.
 

Lzbee

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 25, 2016
do you think we will see Bradie and Mariah retire after next season? Amber or Karen?
I don't see Bradie or Mariah retiring if they're still leading the US ladies but if Alysa manages to take up the torch then maybe. I don't see Amber retiring since she's just had her breakthrough. And if Bradie or Karen get a 3A, I think that would be incentive enough to stay.

Mariah will be 25 next season so she'll be the most likely to retire if things either don't go well or if they go exceedingly well.
 
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