2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[Jontor]

Yeah. but I firmly believe if the US Fed wants that third spot for the Olympics, it is unlikely it will succeed, we all know that, but I do feel that Karen is the one to go. She needs to up her tech though before Stockholm (if Worlds happens), she has no triple+triple combo and she needs that. And as much as I love Mariah, I do think that Karen has more potential to up her tech.
But let's look at the obstacles. The Korean ladies seem out of form, Young You was NOT good at NHK Trophy. And that favours the US ladies. There is only the three Russian girls and the three Japanese girls that might be in front of them. If Bradie and Karen can finish 6th and 7th at Worlds it will be enough. All they need to do is beat one girl from Russia and/or Japan. It is not impossible.
Trusova is known for having meltdowns, Miyahara and Sakamoto also. And even if Young You comes back to form, I'd say that Bradie and Karen has a great chance here.
I want US to have three spots for the Olympics, it looks grim, but it's not undoable.

 

[Amei]

I get what you're saying, and I agree, and of course I would have preferred Mariah who is my fave US skater. But she finished too low, so maybe the US Fed thought it would be more controversial to choose her?

I think Mariah's problem was that she finished too low at Nationals and also as nicely as this can be said - Mariah was on the last 3 Worlds teams that competed: she finished 12th twice and 9th once, her finishes contributed to the loss of the third spot and lack of regaining the third spot.

Yeah. but I firmly believe if the US Fed wants that third spot for the Olympics, it is unlikely it will succeed, we all know that, but I do feel that Karen is the one to go. She needs to up her tech though before Stockholm (if Worlds happens), she has no triple+triple combo and she needs that. And as much as I love Mariah, I do think that Karen has more potential to up her tech.

Why do you think that Karen has more potential to up her content more than Mariah, when Mariah does not have the chronic under-rotation issue that Karen has.

 

[Jontor]

Why do you think that Karen has more potential to up her content more than Mariah, when Mariah does not have the chronic under-rotation issue that Karen has.

Yes, I know, Karen and her URs. Maybe it's illogical but I think Karen has it in her? Or maybe I am just full of wishful thinking? I don't know. But as you said, Mariah has already been to Worlds and have not succeeded, and Amber is a wild card to say the least. I guess I am saying Karen is all that is left...

 

[Skatefan15]

What do you guys envision when someone says body of work? To me, it just means what has a skater done the past two years tops leading up to the olympics/worlds. Karen has had a better overall career than Mariah and Amber, but her “body of work” as of right now isn’t strong. I’ve seen people on other social media platforms say that Karen is a good choice because she’s an Olympian. Yes, that’s true but that was also three years ago. People have also brought up worlds 2017, which was four years ago. I hope all goes well for the US ladies, if worlds happens, but I would hate if this decision ends up really affecting spots (as long Alysa makes it I’ll be good haha).

 

[kirauza343]

I think y’all are putting too much weight on Karen’s overall body of work being why she was picked. Even looking at just this season I can see why they thought Karen was the best choice.

Mariah lost any shot with her 5th place finish at Nationals. It suggested she was likely to crack under pressure and she finished well behind them in points. Ignoring Nationals results completely to put her on the team would’ve sent a very bad message.

Amber did end up 2nd however the difference between her and Karen was less than a point. They were virtually tied! At that point they needed something else to break the tie and I’m willing to bet it was Skate America. They once again finished just one placement apart (Karen 4th and Amber 5th), but Karen beat her by a significant margin and actually placed 2nd in the free.

I would’ve liked to see Amber go instead especially with her pushing her tech with her triple axels and having more dependable rotation on her jumps. But in this season (limited as it was) she lost to Karen by 15 points at one competition and essentially tied her at the other. It sucks that she won’t get to go to Worlds as the US silver medalist but it’s an understandable choice based on both of their results this season.

 

[R.D.]

One last question: If for some reason the worlds cannot be held...has it been announced how the Olympic spots will be determined? Will the US be stuck with the 2 spots it currently has?

 

[R.D.]

I think Mariah [Bell]'s problem was that she finished too low at Nationals and also as nicely as this can be said - Mariah was on the last 3 Worlds teams that competed: she finished 12th twice and 9th once, her finishes contributed to the loss of the third spot and lack of regaining the third spot.

Ouch. Time for a new start then...

Oddly enough, last time this happened, A. Wagner was both on the team that initially lost the 3rd spot (2008) and the team that got it back (2013). Not only that but she was the lowest placer in 2008 (16) and yet the higher placer in 2013 (5). Talk about a turnaround.

 

[Dawn825]

I guess all we can do is hope that if there is a Worlds, Karen really works on her jumps between now and then. The pressure of getting 3 spots for the Olympics should really motivate her.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Mariah lost any shot with her 5th place finish at Nationals. It suggested she was likely to crack under pressure and she finished well behind them in points.

How often is Karen strong under pressure? She's never won a GP, 4CC, World, or Olympic medal in 13 tries.

 

[macy]

How often is Karen strong under pressure? She's never won a GP, 4CC, World, or Olympic medal in 13 tries.

thing is, Amber hasn't either. IMO i think she cracks under pressure even moreso than Karen, and i think the main reason why they passed over Amber is because this is such a high stakes worlds. olympic spots are on the line and it would be her first time competing on a stage that big. that is a ton of pressure for someone who has never done that before. she has faltered under pressure and hasn't been able to put together 2 solid performances literally every single senior level nationals shes competed at until now, and this was her 5th. she hasn't given the fed much reason to send her even on the domestic stage.

if she podiums next year and there is a case to send her to worlds, by all means let her go. nothing is on the line and they can take a chance on her. i just think the circumstances this year were not in her favor to be sent, and that is reasonable.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

thing is, Amber hasn't either. IMO i think she cracks under pressure even moreso than Karen, and i think the main reason why they passed over Amber is because this is such a high stakes worlds. olympic spots are on the line and it would be her first time competing on a stage that big. that is a ton of pressure for someone who has never done that before. she has faltered under pressure and hasn't been able to put together 2 solid performances literally every single senior level nationals shes competed at until now, and this was her 5th. she hasn't given the fed much reason to send her even on the domestic stage.

I get what you're saying, but I just find it problematic that the USFSA continuously favors its preferred skaters. If "she can't be chosen because she's never competed on a stage that big" is the reasoning, it becomes a chicken-and-egg problem because she can't get picked without big stage experience, and she can't get that experience without getting picked. I wouldn't be mad about it if Karen actually had strong results, but I just feel like if you're not going with the Nationals result there has to be a compelling reason to do so (i.e. leaving a medal contender or someone who can be relied on to deliver two strong programs home).

 

[ManyCairns]

It's just so easy when it's close like this to legitimately look at the same data set in different ways. I hope what is going on is that Amber has finally put it together, and that should be rewarded, when the two skaters are so close overall, but Amber finished higher at Nats. Also, Amber kept it together despite apparently having an infection from foot to knee in her leg -- wow. Now that is some kind of grit. She wasn't going to let two programs get away from her again -- and she didn't. But didn't get rewarded for it. The fed really is chucking away the prestige of Nationals imo.

 

[YuBluByMe]

thing is, Amber hasn't either. IMO i think she cracks under pressure even moreso than Karen, and i think the main reason why they passed over Amber is because this is such a high stakes worlds. olympic spots are on the line and it would be her first time competing on a stage that big. that is a ton of pressure for someone who has never done that before. she has faltered under pressure and hasn't been able to put together 2 solid performances literally every single senior level nationals shes competed at until now, and this was her 5th. she hasn't given the fed much reason to send her even on the domestic stage.

Agreed. Also, Glenn could play it safe and go for the 2A in the short, but there will be pressure for her to go for the 3A - which is a new element that she hasn't landed cleanly in competition before. I don't think she'll play it safe because she'll want to continue her momentum. Knowing this, USFed starting considering worse-case scenarios. Okay, what if she pops the 3A in the short? That's very possible. She's popped axels before. She did it at 4CC last year. She cracks under pressure so what if she freaks out and then falls on her 3F and misses the combo??? Just like that, US went from hoping to gain three spots to praying she qualifies for the free skate. Losing a spot will be absolutely disastrous. That is what USFed was thinking about when they chose Chen. The worse thing that happens with Chen is that they don't get the third spot (which is unlikely anyway) and keep two. Sure, Glenn may hold it together, but now it's not the time to experiment and find out.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Sure, Glenn may hold it together, but now it's not the time to experiment and find out.

It's never the right time because there are always Worlds/Olympic spots on the line. Besides, sending Karen over Mariah is an experiment.

 

[Blades of Passion]

How is sending Karen over Mariah an experiment? Mariah's season hasn't been good (being propped up at Skate America doesn't count) and she's never been the better skater anyway. Very nice girl, but too limited; she doesn't have the necessary killer drive. She isn't able to do jumps that pull big GOE, she will never have a 3Axel or Quad, and her skating skills don't stand out. She's someone who could have been a beautiful skater in previous decades, but sadly figure skating doesn't want that right now.

I do feel that Karen is the one to go. She needs to up her tech though before Stockholm (if Worlds happens), she has no triple+triple combo and she needs that. And as much as I love Mariah, I do think that Karen has more potential to up her tech.

Triple+Triple isn't needed at all in the LP. It's literally worth less points than doing multiple 2A+3Toe. I think this is by far the best plan for her (while working towards a 3Axel):

2Axel+3Toe
3Flip
2Axel+3Toe
3Loop
3Lutz+2Toe+2Loop
3Lutz
3Sal

For the SP, it might even be smartest for her to do 3Toe+3Toe and 3Lutz. At the end of the day it's only worth .6 less in base value (compared to 3Lutz+3Toe and 3Loop), and if she can consistently get higher GOE because of being able to utilize her big jumps in a way that doesn't get < or 'q' calls, then it will benefit her. Not needing to work on the 3Lutz+3Toe might also provide more breathing room for gaining the 3Axel, which is what really matters. Nobody is competitive at the top internationally anymore without 3Axel or Quad.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

How is sending Karen over Mariah an experiment? Mariah's season hasn't been good (being propped up at Skate America doesn't count) and she's never been the better skater anyway. Very nice girl, but too limited; she doesn't have the necessary killer drive. She isn't able to do jumps that pull big GOE, she will never have a 3Axel or Quad, and her skating skills don't stand out. She's someone who could have been a beautiful skater in previous decades, but sadly figure skating doesn't want that right now.

I know you're a Karen fan, and there is a lot to like about her skating. Karen's career best score is 204.90 from Skate America. Mariah has topped that at her last 6 international events spanning three seasons. So, yes, it's a big risk sending someone who's scoring around 170-190 most of the time over someone who regularly tops 205. Even if you think Karen is underscored or judged too harshly internationally, it is those same international judging panels who will assess her performances again, so our expectations should be based on the actual competitive results.

Frankly, I'm not a huge fan of "body of work," but if I were to use it I would have used it to pick Mariah over Karen, not Karen over Amber. This is really the first time the USFSA has ever selected a skater with this weak of a record over a higher Nationals finisher, and it just seems like they really want to push Karen Chen for whatever reason.

 

[mrrice]

What do you guys envision when someone says body of work? To me, it just means what has a skater done the past two years tops leading up to the olympics/worlds. Karen has had a better overall career than Mariah and Amber, but her “body of work” as of right now isn’t strong. I’ve seen people on other social media platforms say that Karen is a good choice because she’s an Olympian. Yes, that’s true but that was also three years ago. People have also brought up worlds 2017, which was four years ago. I hope all goes well for the US ladies, if worlds happens, but I would hate if this decision ends up really affecting spots (as long Alysa makes it I’ll be good haha).

This is where Body Of Work could come into play next year. If things end up like they did in 2020 with Bradie being 3rd, I'd send Bradie ahead of Mariah even if she beats Bradie at Nationals provided she is in 3rd or 4th position. I really trust Bradie under pressure and IMO, it would be a "Fluke" if she were to finish outside the top 4.

 

[Skatefan15]

This is where Body Of Work could come into play next year. If things end up like they did in 2020 with Bradie being 3rd, I'[d send Bradie ahead of Mariah even if she beats Bradie at National provided she is in 3rd or 4th position. I really trust Bradie under pressure and IMO, it would be a "Fluke" if she were to finish outside the top 4.

Yeah, I agree! Based on what Bradie accomplished during the 19-20 season internationally and her domestic success this year, she’s the only one who could have the body of work argument next year. I really hope she and Alysa make it for the Olympics (but I also really want Amber so here’s hoping somehow there’s three spots). I also trust Bradie under pressure (she’s the only one—maybe plus Alysa, but yeah only those two).

 

[natsulian]

The US ladies were quite entertaining to watch. A lot of talented young ladies.

Favorite performances:
1. Kanon Smith - her skating skills, spins, and jumps are beautiful and her innate musicality is simply superb
2. Isabeau Levito - although her jumps are squirrelly, Isabeau oozes charm, maturity, and has beautiful extensions and lines
3. Clare Seo - a mature performance with beautiful musicality and SPEED

Protocols/Results: https://ijs.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2021/27989/CAT005SEG009.html

 

[Amei]

What do you guys envision when someone says body of work?

Body of work to me I am fine with 2 things being taken into account:

• results for the current year and prior year
  • Irrelevant to the current competitive state of ladies figure skating that Karen placed fourth 4 seasons ago at Worlds, and if you check the results while yes she did her job, she was the benefactor to Pogorilaya's meltdown FS that dropped her from 4th after the SP to 13th after the FS.
• Big moment performances
  • Using the skater this applies to most, Mariah, per my standalone post yesterday - she was on the last 3 Worlds teams and while she was not the only under-performer at 2018 Worlds that cost the US ladies their third spot she did contribute (placed 12th)

What do you guys envision when someone says body of work? To me, it just means what has a skater done the past two years tops leading up to the olympics/worlds. Karen has had a better overall career than Mariah and Amber, but her “body of work” as of right now isn’t strong. I’ve seen people on other social media platforms say that Karen is a good choice because she’s an Olympian. Yes, that’s true but that was also three years ago. People have also brought up worlds 2017, which was four years ago. I hope all goes well for the US ladies, if worlds happens, but I would hate if this decision ends up really affecting spots (as long Alysa makes it I’ll be good haha).

I question how much those people actually follow figure skating trying to use results from 3-4 years ago to justify putting her on the team, per my comment above Karen's 4th place was mostly a result of a meltdown skate by Pogorilaya, and the competitive landscape has changed significantly since that time. And while yes Karen was an Olympian, she placed 11th and didn't skate remarkably well, so if we were using the Olympic results in the BOW argument, I don't think it would be in Karen's favor.