2021-22 Women's Skating Predictions and Rankings

[GS Forum Staff]

Fun! Russian test skates are soon... let the chair-throwing begin!

2020-21 Power Rankings

2021-22 Power Rankings:

1. Kamila Valieva: She will win. Duh.

2. Anna Shcherbackova: ... And yet, she will still win Russian Nationals

3. Alexandra Trusova: Her skating depends entirely on her layout. Really, depends on the layout. She seems to want to get 3A and the rest of the quads which... well. But the BV keeps her up.

4. Alena Kostornaia: Let's see how many 3As she lands at the test skates, and I'll place her at 3.

5. Rika Kihira: Bad showing at worlds notwithstanding, still the only one who can challenge the Russians at Beijing. Will have to see what Orser makes of her.

6. Kaori Sakamoto: I think Sakamoto being on Team Japan is confirmed. Not likely she'll be on the podium, but expect a strong top 6 finish from her, at the very least.

7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: It is unlikely she'll be on the team, and further unlikely she'll beat the people who were hampered by COVID last season. But her recent world silver props her up to this place.

(ETA: number 8 was eaten before 7 could eat 9)

9. Alysa Liu: Looks to be regaining her form, and can easily be on Team US. Likely will get that third spot at Nebelhorn.

10. Karen Chen/Bradie Tennell/Young You: Have to see how they look, still, but strong skaters from their respective countries who'll likely make the team.

Unranked: some fresh seniors, Satoko Miyahara, Eunsoo Lim, Wakaba Higuchi, Mariah Bell... others I can't remember.

 

[nussnacker]

Fun! Russian test skates are soon... let the chair-throwing begin!

2020-21 Power Rankings

2021-22 Power Rankings:

1. Kamila Valieva: She will win. Duh.

2. Anna Shcherbackova: ... And yet, she will still win Russian Nationals

3. Alexandra Trusova: Her skating depends entirely on her layout. Really, depends on the layout. She seems to want to get 3A and the rest of the quads which... well. But the BV keeps her up.

4. Alena Kostornaia: Let's see how many 3As she lands at the test skates, and I'll place her at 3.

5. Rika Kihira: Bad showing at worlds notwithstanding, still the only one who can challenge the Russians at Beijing. Will have to see what Orser makes of her.

6. Kaori Sakamoto: I think Sakamoto being on Team Japan is confirmed. Not likely she'll be on the podium, but expect a strong top 6 finish from her, at the very least.

7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: It is unlikely she'll be on the team, and further unlikely she'll beat the people who were hampered by COVID last season. But her recent world silver props her up to this place.

9. Alysa Liu: Looks to be regaining her form, and can easily be on Team US. Likely will get that third spot at Nebelhorn.

10. Karen Chen/Bradie Tennell/Young You: Have to see how they look, still, but strong skaters from their respective countries who'll likely make the team.

Unranked: fresh seniors, Satoko Miyahara, Eunsoo Lim, Wakaba Higuchi, Mariah Bell... others I can't remember.

Where’d you put Khromykh?

 

[Skatesocs]

Where’d you put Khromykh?

Hmm You know, I think you're right. Maybe she should be 7th instead of Tuktamysheva. I'll amend it after test skates. I also remembered someone else relevant, and have promptly forgotten at the time of writing this post lol.

But also... where did *you* put Kromykh?

 

[nussnacker]

Hmm You know, I think you're right. Maybe she should be 7th instead of Tuktamysheva. I'll amend it after test skates. I also remembered someone else relevant, and have promptly forgotten at the time of writing this post lol.

But also... where did *you* put Kromykh?

For now probably the same: below Kao and above Tuk.

Rika is a biggest question mark for me because of her injury and so many coaching changes. This has to be tiring physically and mentally, I’m really curious how she will do. She can somehow continue being Japanese #1 or even not make the Olympic team.
So I’m either putting Rika as #5 or #9-10 (or anywhere in-between)

Kao seems to be in a good space, I think this can be a season where she’ll be her most consistent, which can also help her PCS to be maximized. So either #6 or #5 if Rika isn’t healed.

Maiia: if she nails her 2-3 quads she’s below Aliona, if not then she’ll be below Kao.

Liza isn’t known for consistency, international judges usually don’t give her neither good GOE, nor PCS, spins and stsq aren’t the same quality as others. A few of her usual mistakes/a suboptimal layout - she used to end up under Bradie and Satoko, who weren’t clean with those kinds of mishaps.

I’d also put Alysa above Liza Tuk.

 

[Skatesocs]

^ Right, I agree with much of that. I think we'll know soon-ish how Alysa Liu and maybe even Rika are looking at this point of the season, so we can all update the power ranking once they skate. In general, I agree that any quadster from the US and Russia is automatically ahead of Tuktamysheva. They'll have the backing, and they won't randomly score lower than her on spins and steps, unless they're just that bad.

 

[macy]

^ Right, I agree with much of that. I think we'll know soon-ish how Alysa Liu and maybe even Rika are looking at this point of the season, so we can all update the power ranking once they skate. In general, I agree that any quadster from the US and Russia is automatically ahead of Tuktamysheva. They'll have the backing, and they won't randomly score lower than her on spins and steps, unless they're just that bad.

Alysa just posted a 74 in the short at Lombardia today with no 3A. she's looking to be pretty competitive this season.

 

[Skatesocs]

Alysa just posted a 74 at Lombardia today with no 3A. she's looking to be pretty competitive this season.

Wait, she's at Lombardia? I didn't even know that. I thought Nebelhorn was going to be her first showing of the season, but I guess it makes sense to get her some international senior experience before sending her to something important.

Yes, she should be ahead of Tuktamysheva, then. That score will only increase.

 

[fzztsimmons]

I’d have Loena Hendrickx in the top 10 somewhere, or at least on the same level as Karen/Bradie etc. Fifth at last worlds with a fall in the SP, has big jumps, excellent spins and performance in spades! She may be hampered by being from a small fed, but likely the only non-russian european lady to break the top 10.

 

[yume]

Alysa just posted a 74 in the short at Lombardia today with no 3A. she's looking to be pretty competitive this season.

Not saying she can't be a strong contender this season but i wouldn't take Lombardia's score as a data.
Lombardia is historically the most overscored challenger with usually the most lenient panel. I would recommend every skater who is in the middle of the field to go there and get a SB.
Yura Matuda got two GPs just because of Lombardia's score. She skated cleanly with very competitive layouts but in GPs or north America challengers, she would have gotten lower scores.

 

[Skatesocs]

Lombardia is historically the most overscored challenger with usually the most lenient panel. I would recommend every skater who is in the middle of the field to go there and get a SB.

I think USFed will only inflate her scores, if she's consistent, especially once she adds 3A. She did give a great performance at Lombardia.

 

[yume]

I’d have Loena Hendrickx in the top 10 somewhere, or at least on the same level as Karen/Bradie etc. Fifth at last worlds with a fall in the SP, has big jumps, excellent spins and performance in spades! She may be hampered by being from a small fed, but likely the only non-russian european lady to break the top 10.

If she's consistent, i can see her score 75+ and 145+. She got 141 at worlds while coming from a small fed and after having one bad season and one blank season.

I think USFed will only inflate her scores, if she's consistent, especially once she adds 3A. She did give a great performance at Lombardia.

Yeah she was great. She will get 75+ as the season will go anyway.

 

[Dreamer57]

7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: It is unlikely she'll be on the team, and further unlikely she'll beat the people who were hampered by COVID last season. But her recent world silver props her up to this place.

9. Alysa Liu: Looks to be regaining her form, and can easily be on Team US. Likely will get that third spot at Nebelhorn.

10. Karen Chen/Bradie Tennell/Young You: Have to see how they look, still, but strong skaters from their respective countries who'll likely make the team.

Unranked: fresh seniors, Satoko Miyahara, Eunsoo Lim, Wakaba Higuchi, Mariah Bell... others I can't remember.

Who is number 8?
For 7-10 I would probably say Maiia, Daria, Alysa and Young/Loena/Liza.

I think Liza has weaker PCS although she could try her quads in competition.

 

[Skatesocs]

Who is number 8?
For 7-10 I would probably say Maiia, Daria, Alysa and Young/Loena/Liza.

LOL, I didn't notice. Plus, someone else brought up Maiia Kromykh, and I didn't know Liu was skating at Lombardia (and the person I'd forgotten about was actually Daria Usacheva), so that list is already outdated. Either way, I'll be updating after we see the Russian test skates. Currently my list is:

1. Kamila Valieva

2. Anna Shcherbackova

3. Alexandra Trusova

4. Alena Kostornaia

5. Rika Kihira

6. Kaori Sakamoto

7. Maiia Kromykh

8. Alysa Liu

9. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva

10. Karen Chen/Bradie Tennell/Young You

Unranked: some fresh seniors, Daria Usacheva, Satoko Miyahara, Eunsoo Lim, Wakaba Higuchi, Mariah Bell... others I can't remember.

 

[[email protected]]

For me it's too early in the season for power rankings. Based on what I have seen, number 1 is Sasha Trusova. Number 2 is Kamila Valieva. Number 3 is Anna Scherbakova. They look like the team that will sweep the podium in China. Number 4 is Alyssa Liu. Score wise she is not stronger than the following group. But her team chances are almost certain and this gives her more power. Then there is a group whose power ranking at this stage is lower than Alysa's only because they skate for Russia. Tuktamysheva, Khromykh, Usacheva, Kostornaya. Each of them can beat Alysa face to face. The question is if they have the chance. At this point of time I don't know where to place the Japanese, the Koreans, and Loena. I suppose that Bradie is injured. And sorry I don't see power in Karen so far.

 

[Skatesocs]

1. Sasha Trusova (right off the test skates, but traditionally it goes down as the season progresses. She can have it for now)
2. Kamila Valieva
3. Anna Shcherbakova
4. Alena Kostornaia
5. Rika Kihira
6. Alysa Liu (the score's going to rise)
7. Kaori Sakamoto
8. Maiia Kromykh
9. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
10. Karen/Bradie/Young/I guess Loena though I doubt it

Usacheva remains unranked because she's apparently off injury + didn't like the programs. Let's see how she progresses.

Next ranking/prediction, after the GPs start. Can't keep track of all the challengers, but others, please post here, if you do!

 

[Arbitrary]

Have to consider a possibility the question "Who may defeat..." will be changed to ""Who will win...". The political and economic situation in Russia is complicated. The Covid status all around the world is complicated even more.
The Olympics are still not ensured. The Team of Russia on Olympics may or may not be welcomed.
No flag, no anthem, ... The Russian ladies aren't Russian, technically...

 

[[email protected]]

Have to consider a possibility the question "Who may defeat..." will be changed to ""Who will win...". The political and economic situation in Russia is complicated. The Covid status all around the world is complicated even more.
The Olympics are still not ensured. The Team of Russia on Olympics may or may not be welcomed.
No flag, no anthem, ... The Russian ladies aren't Russian, technically...

I have not understood a word, well, I understood all the words separately but I completely missed the point here.

 

[Skatesocs]

Japan Open where we see some of the Japanese ladies, and then Finlandia after that for Kamila's first ever senior international (and where we'll also see if Kostornaia is being treated well internationally)... Asian Open with Kihira, Sakamoto and Lim. Then time for an update. Unfortunately no Haein Lee in challengers right now.

My rough ranking up until now is:

1. Trusova
2. Valieva (expect her to be 1 after Finlandia)
3. Shcherbakova
4. Kostornaia
5. Kihira
6. Liu
7. Sakamoto
8. Kromykh
9. You (better programs than Tuktamysheva and better overall skating; on the road to recovery)
10. Tuktamysheva

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

It’s astonished at how low Tuktamysheva, the reigning World silver medallist, is on people’s lists. I get why folks are reluctant to put stock in her, but damn, guess that World silver medal got no brownie points from y’all.

 

[[email protected]]

It’s astonished at how low Tuktamysheva, the reigning World silver medallist, is on people’s lists. I get why folks are reluctant to put stock in her, but damn, guess that World silver medal got no brownie points from y’all.

There is a famous iconic Russian musician Boris Grebenschikov. He has a song: "These are just our dances on the edge of the spring". I said it more than once now but I am not tired to repeat. What was happenning in women's figure skating since Adelina's win were "just those dances" including an unprecedented win streak by Zhenya, including 100% backloaded programs by Alina, including the first landed and certified quad by Lizabeth. The previous season was the last one of those "dances". Starting this one the new generation of skaters will fully overtake the top. And looking further down and seeing Akatieva there I understand that this is the long-term reality. And in this new reality, unfortunately, I don't see Liza in a national team so that her last season "bang" was a powerful farewell. I understand that she like Kaetlyn Osmond would like to say good-bye after the Olympic season. And I feel sorry for her that she just missed 1 year. "The spring" has started.