2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

readernick

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Well, the country needs truly strong contender in at least two categories to have a chance, while they need top be at least "so-so" in others. the countries who have somehow talents spread among all four disciplines are naturally Russia, USA and IMO Italy.

France was held by pair discipline, but with the end of James/Cipres they don't have a strong contender in two categories. They have Papadakis/Cizeron, but in other categories Aymoz is not enough when teir current ladies and pairs lack on the top too much.

China has strong pairs and has Boyang, but the other two categories are too weak.

Japan has men and ladies, but too weak ice dance and currently no competitive pair.

Canada can achieve good results in three categories, but their ladies are currently not competitive with the top.
I think that if healthy Miura/ Kihara could actually place relatively well in the pairs' event. They already showed quite a bit of promise last year and with another two years of practice, I don't think they will be at the bottom of the field. The Japanese ice dance pair of Komatsubara/Koleto might do relatively well, too. I wouldn't count Japan out for bronze. I think Bronze is a toss up between Italy, China, Japan, France and Canada. We will have to see how all of the countries do at Worlds this year and next year in competition.
 

flanker

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I think that if healthy Miura/ Kihara could actually place relatively well in the pairs' event. They already showed quite a bit of promise last year and with another two years of practice, I don't think they will be at the bottom of the field. The Japanese ice dance pair of Komatsubara/Koleto might do relatively well, too. I wouldn't count Japan out for bronze. I think Bronze is a toss up between Italy, China, Japan, France and Canada. We will have to see how all of the countries do at Worlds this year and next year in competition.
As for Komatsubara/Koleto, IMO they are just slightly above average comparing to the dancers that the other countries can qualify. Still they probably have the chance to finish themselves somewhere around 5th-7th place in team competition's SP. As for Miura/Kihara, so far I don't see them placing higher than from 8th place below in comparison with other potential rivals in the team competition (of course if other countries nominate their best pairs for the team competition). But maybe I'm truly underrating them.
 
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Blades of Passion

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I wouldn't call China "settled" to any degree.
The judging for the Chinese at this event is going to be generous, their Dance team is already more competitive than ever before, and I feel they will have a Lady who peaks in the Olympic year and delivers a respectable placement. Unless we see a disastrous performance from Boyang in the SP, they should be set. If Boyang does place well in the SP, they can even use Peng/Jin and Han Yan in the LP and securely get a medal for more of their skaters, which would be delightful since those particular skaters have been underrated and deserve a reward.
 

Colonel Green

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The judging for the Chinese at this event is going to be generous, their Dance team is already more competitive than ever before, and I feel they will have a Lady who peaks in the Olympic year and delivers a respectable placement. Unless we see a disastrous performance from Boyang in the SP, they should be set.
The only nations whose men I would feel comfortable counting on having a favourable SP placement are the US and Japan, as things stand now. Jin could do well, he also could skate badly, on the evidence of recent seasons; which is the same thing I'd say for Canada, Italy, France and Russia (though in Russia's case it obviously matters less given their exceptional talent in the other three quadrants).

But more than just, there's no particular reason to think that China will have a lady who peaks in the Olympic year. You could dismiss any nation's present weakness on that basis.
 

Blades of Passion

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there's no particular reason to think that China will have a lady who peaks in the Olympic year.
They've been planning for it, adding extra funding to the program, and the skaters will have extra motivation. Chen Hongyi is already better than any Canadian or French lady anyway, and just needs the judges to be on her side. Which they will be.
 

Colonel Green

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They've been planning for it, adding extra funding to the program, and the skaters will have extra motivation.
God laughs at plans. Money is great, but it doesn't automatically translate to results, as many federations could tell you. Extra motivation also comes with extra pressure, as many skaters at home Olympics will also tell you.
Chen Hongyi is already better than any Canadian or French lady anyway, and just needs the judges to be on her side. Which they will be.
In the past two seasons Chen has finished behind five different Canadian ladies at four different ISU championship events.
 

Blades of Passion

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In the past two seasons Chen has finished behind five different Canadian ladies at four different ISU championship events.
#1 because the judges haven't cared about her, #2 because she was receiving tons of < calls that would only be 'q' with the new rules, which boosts her score by a huge amount. She would have easily placed ahead of any Canadian lady at 2020 Four Continents with the updated rules, and her showing at 2020 Cup of China was similarly superior to anything they are doing.
 

AshWagsFan

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I think the battle for OGM in the team event is between Russia and the USA. Depending on who is in what event, it will be pretty even throughout. USA can likely win the men, Russia will likely take Ladies, but the USA could potentially keep it close with Russia based on their placement in ladies (only other contenders in team event with strong ladies is Japan). Russia will beat USA in pairs, so it comes down to dance, in which it could Be close between Russia and USA. I think Russia is favored, but USA will be the closest challenger. Even if USA loses OGM, if all skaters perform they can win silver, with either Japan, China, or France winning bronze. Just my opinion ;)
 

mrrice

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It's interesting to see these lists and not see defending Champion Canada as the winner on any of them. Not sure who will win but, I definitely see the US winning a Medal. With our new strength in Pairs........It's going to be interesting.
 

AshWagsFan

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It's interesting to see these lists and not see defending Champion Canada as the winner on any of them. Not sure who will win but, I definitely see the US winning a Medal. With our new strength in Pairs........It's going to be interesting.
I just don’t think Canada outside of pairs is super strong in anything. Maybe if Weaver/Poje came back they could be stronger, but I’m not sure we will see. TWe’d also need to see Gabby Daleman have a resurgence which I am not sure will occur.

But the US looks strong for the silver medal, perhaps even gold if the stars align!
 

labgoat

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I think that if healthy Miura/ Kihara could actually place relatively well in the pairs' event. They already showed quite a bit of promise last year and with another two years of practice, I don't think they will be at the bottom of the field. The Japanese ice dance pair of Komatsubara/Koleto might do relatively well, too. I wouldn't count Japan out for bronze. I think Bronze is a toss up between Italy, China, Japan, France and Canada. We will have to see how all of the countries do at Worlds this year and next year in competition.
Italy could be interesting with Grassl/Frangiapiane/Rizzo in men Guignard & Fabbri in dance, Della Monica/Guarise in pairs, and in ladies Kostner?/Alessia Tornaghi. Still think China could be interesting though.
 

labgoat

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God laughs at plans. Money is great, but it doesn't automatically translate to results, as many federations could tell you. Extra motivation also comes with extra pressure, as many skaters at home Olympics will also tell you.

In the past two seasons Chen has finished behind five different Canadian ladies at four different ISU championship events.
I have to agree with Blades on this one. Hongyi Chen will be given the best of everything with a medal on the line. The Chinese are hard workers to begin with and she will be excited and highly motivated for the Olympics. I see her stock rising.
 

labgoat

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It's interesting to see these lists and not see defending Champion Canada as the winner on any of them. Not sure who will win but, I definitely see the US winning a Medal. With our new strength in Pairs........It's going to be interesting.
Canada's hopes lie with Gilles & Poirier. Dance can be tricky, who thought Chock & Bates would be injured and splat (Madi in tears was so sad, I hope they have a happier ending this time), who saw the Russians without a medal in dance? Who foresaw costume malfunctions of epic proportions mess up not one but two skates. Nerves and adrenaline do funny things and can affect levels. Maybe less expectations may help them relax - they always have great material and crowds love them everywhere.
 

ice coverage

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... Hongyi Chen will be given the best of everything with a medal on the line. The Chinese are hard workers to begin with and she will be excited and highly motivated for the Olympics. I see her stock rising.

Meanwhile ... if Shan Lin (Ashley Lin) has Chinese citizenship, I would not count her out as a possibility to be China's top lady at 2022 OWG.

Lin's ISU PB is 181.21 (from 2018 Nebelhorn, in her final season of skating for the U.S.).
Hongyi Chen's ISU PB is 175.77 (from 2019 Rostelecom).

(I like both of these skaters.
FWIW, in the non-standard 2020 GP season, Lin's scores from Skate America and Chen's from Cup of China were in the same ballpark, I would say.)
 

GoneWithTheWind

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Italy could be interesting with Grassl/Frangiapiane/Rizzo in men Guignard & Fabbri in dance, Della Monica/Guarise in pairs, and in ladies Kostner?/Alessia Tornaghi. Still think China could be interesting though.
Canada's hopes lie with Gilles & Poirier.
Canada vs Italy could be very interesting as their teams are quite equal:
  • In Dance, Guignard/Fabbri have a higher PB in the Rhythm Dance whereas Gilles/Poirier have a higher PB in the Free Dance, so they'd potentially swap places/points in those two sections.
  • In Pairs, DM/G tend to have issues on the sbs jumps, whereas MT/M tend to have more 'fluke' errors/falls (eg: him falling after the throw). MT/M have higher PBs in both sections to DM/G, so should have an advantage, but if they have an error, and DM/G skate as lights-out as they did last Olympics, the points and placements could change.
  • In Men, on paper, Canada have the advantage according to PBs and I don't watch enough Men's skating to know how consistent or otherwise the contenders are. At the recent Gran Premio, both Grassl and Rizzo scored well, but it was a home competition.
  • In Ladies, Daleman has the best PB in the short, so, if she returns to competition in good form, she should have the advantage there (69.19 v 62.41 from Guttman, or 62.19 from Tornaghi), if she's not back, the next Canadian lady, Chartrand, has a lower PB (60.47). In the free, Tornaghi's PB (125.22) outscores even Daleman (123.48). Equally, there is the possibility that Kostner may return, which would potentially give Italy an extra advantage in the Ladies, especially in the short.
This, of course, relies on all the skaters being back to form after the current situation...
Personally, I'd love to see Italy take a medal!
 

HeadBanger

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I think the Team Event will actually have some good intrigue this time around... at least about the bronze medal. I've been running through various scenarios and likelihoods and the way I break it down is thus:

Russia - Gold is virtually in the bag. Short of multiple total meltdowns, I don't see it even being close

USA - Quite likely silver. Don't have nearly as much top end entries as the Russian's, but are much more consistently competitive across the disciplines than anyone else, and the scoring system rewards that. If one of their singles struggle, especially in the short with the wider placings range, they could be in a battle though.

China - I'd rank them a slight favourites for bronze, but it will be a battle. Ladies SP is their biggest downside risk, but should have a great showing in pairs and decent placements in mens and dance. Should comfortably get to the LP, and should be neck and neck with Canada. Will probably benefit from some of that home town cooking with the judges too, might be good for a point or two.

Canada - Slight underdogs for bronze. Pairs and ice dance they can get a decent placement, but mens and ladies are wildcards. If they can get 4th or 5th place points in the singles events though I'd give them the edge... but that's almost best case, and worse than that and they're out of the medals

Japan - If they can get to the LP, they could win a medal. Obviously a top nation in mens and ladies... but their pairs and dance could be such a drag on them they don't even advance. In the LP the damage those events could inflict is so much less, if they can get thru with any room I'd actually peg them for bronze... but significant risk they don't even get that far.

Italy/France/Korea - Could play spoiler for Japan's hope, but they're just trying to sneak thru to the LP. Tough to see any of them finishing above 5th.

If we're giving percentages, I'd peg:

Russia - 99% for a medal (and 95% it's gold)
USA - 80% for a medal
China - 55% for a medal
Canada - 40% for a medal
Japan - 25% for a medal
Italy/France/Korea - 1%
 

el henry

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I think the Team Event will actually have some good intrigue this time around... at least about the bronze medal. I've been running through various scenarios and likelihoods and the way I break it down is thus:

Russia - Gold is virtually in the bag. Short of multiple total meltdowns, I don't see it even being close

USA - Quite likely silver. Don't have nearly as much top end entries as the Russian's, but are much more consistently competitive across the disciplines than anyone else, and the scoring system rewards that. If one of their singles struggle, especially in the short with the wider placings range, they could be in a battle though.

China - I'd rank them a slight favourites for bronze, but it will be a battle. Ladies SP is their biggest downside risk, but should have a great showing in pairs and decent placements in mens and dance. Should comfortably get to the LP, and should be neck and neck with Canada. Will probably benefit from some of that home town cooking with the judges too, might be good for a point or two.

Canada - Slight underdogs for bronze. Pairs and ice dance they can get a decent placement, but mens and ladies are wildcards. If they can get 4th or 5th place points in the singles events though I'd give them the edge... but that's almost best case, and worse than that and they're out of the medals

Japan - If they can get to the LP, they could win a medal. Obviously a top nation in mens and ladies... but their pairs and dance could be such a drag on them they don't even advance. In the LP the damage those events could inflict is so much less, if they can get thru with any room I'd actually peg them for bronze... but significant risk they don't even get that far.

Italy/France/Korea - Could play spoiler for Japan's hope, but they're just trying to sneak thru to the LP. Tough to see any of them finishing above 5th.

If we're giving percentages, I'd peg:

Russia - 99% for a medal (and 95% it's gold)
USA - 80% for a medal
China - 55% for a medal
Canada - 40% for a medal
Japan - 25% for a medal
Italy/France/Korea - 1%
very interesting analysis; welcome to Goldenskate post long and post often!

and i hope your favorite skaters aren’t the cause of your screen name;)
 

Gia_Sesshoumaru

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Does South Korea have a pair, though? I don't think they do, at least I don't remember seeing one in a long time. I remember looking over the rules for the Team Event, and I think if I remember correctly, they're going to need a pair to compete in the Team Event, even if it's just for that event because they didn't qualify for the Pairs event.
 

HeadBanger

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Does South Korea have a pair, though? I don't think they do, at least I don't remember seeing one in a long time. I remember looking over the rules for the Team Event, and I think if I remember correctly, they're going to need a pair to compete in the Team Event, even if it's just for that event because they didn't qualify for the Pairs event.
Assuming the rules are like last time, as long as teams qualified entries in 3 out of 4, they could fill the 4th spot (as Israel did with their ladies skater)... granted this could have changed, but I just figured I'd cover all the possible bases.
 

Gia_Sesshoumaru

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Assuming the rules are like last time, as long as teams qualified entries in 3 out of 4, they could fill the 4th spot (as Israel did with their ladies skater)... granted this could have changed, but I just figured I'd cover all the possible bases.

Yes, but as I said, do they HAVE anyone to fill that spot? Israel didn't qualify in Ladies, but they still had someone to put in that spot for the Team Event, same with South Korea and Pairs. But that pair is no longer competing. Is there a pair in South Korea to put in that spot for the Team Event? Because I haven't seen one.
 
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