2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[Adjesusluvsu]

I think Russia and USA are the top contenders, just as everyone else does. And I like that there is a team event, but I agree that it needs refinement.

However, I do feel that it is not selfish and cowardly to skip the team event. Comparisons to a sport like gymnastics don't seem relevant because skaters are not picked for the Olympic team based on their ability to contribute to the team event (unlike gymnastics, where people like Madison Kocian are mainly there for Team and Bars). In figure skating, since it is not common practice for skaters at worlds, GPF, 4CC, Euros to have a team competition, I don't think they should be condemned if they don't compete in an unusual event. Skaters dream of being "men's Olympic champion," etc. so it is not selfish for them to focus on their goal, especially people like Yuzu in 2018, who was injured and had an actual physical need to conserve himself. I see where everyone's coming from though! (My personal opinion: Nathan should participate in the long program but shouldn't have to do the short as well.)

Also, hi everyone! I'm glad to have joined because I love figure skating

 

[Jeanie19]

I think Russia and USA are the top contenders, just as everyone else does. And I like that there is a team event, but I agree that it needs refinement.

However, I do feel that it is not selfish and cowardly to skip the team event. Comparisons to a sport like gymnastics don't seem relevant because skaters are not picked for the Olympic team based on their ability to contribute to the team event (unlike gymnastics, where people like Madison Kocian are mainly there for Team and Bars). In figure skating, since it is not common practice for skaters at worlds, GPF, 4CC, Euros to have a team competition, I don't think they should be condemned if they don't compete in an unusual event. Skaters dream of being "men's Olympic champion," etc. so it is not selfish for them to focus on their goal, especially people like Yuzu in 2018, who was injured and had an actual physical need to conserve himself. I see where everyone's coming from though! (My personal opinion: Nathan should participate in the long program but shouldn't have to do the short as well.)

Also, hi everyone! I'm glad to have joined because I love figure skating

Welcome to Golden Skate. Post often.

 

[Blades of Passion]

My personal opinion: Nathan should participate in the long program but shouldn't have to do the short as well.

Well that would make no sense. The SP is more important in the Team event and comes earlier, so it would definitely be the LP getting skipped, if one must be. It's unacceptable though to "save himself" for the individual event; it goes against the Olympic spirit and what hundreds of other Olympic athletes have already successfully been able to do. He can even just water down his Team LP jump content if he needs to "preserve energy", because he would still be scoring higher than any other USA guy without his highest content possible.

Comparisons to a sport like gymnastics don't seem relevant because skaters are not picked for the Olympic team based on their ability to contribute to the team event

Skaters COULD be picked in terms of their value for the Team event (and for many countries, where the individuals don't really have a medal chance in their discipline, this is actually what matters most). The event needs to be taken seriously; it's an Olympic medal and possible Gold all the same. Being an "Olympic Gold Medalist" is inherently a massive boon to anybody in the public eye, or even just a medalist. Most of Adam Rippon's current fame is exclusively because of winning an Olympic Bronze in the Team event. Without that, he would be virtually nobody in the public eye.

There is strategy involved in the Team event that should factor into picking an Olympic team. For example, since the SP is so important in the Team event, you should to be sending your best SP skater/team if you are looking for a medal. In the Ladies event especially, there are historically many Ladies who can do excellent SP's, but then struggle in the LP. This is especially true under the current ruleset, where Quads are not allowed in the SP. It's possible for a lady to be very competitive in the SP without a Quad, whereas in the LP it's now impossible unless you are doing multiple 3Axel's (and even then, you'll still be behind technically).

 

[kirauza343]

There are not others who can beat Shoma, Boyang, and Kolyada/Aliev in top form. Jason has no chance and Vincent Zhou has declined from the level he previously peaked at, which itself would already not be enough to beat Shoma and Boyang.

Nathan needs to skate the LP or there is no Gold for USA, unless the rest of the world does poorly in the Men's LP and/or the Russian guy completely bombs the SP.

Jason’s already beaten Boyang in a free skate internationally and was within 4 points of Dimitri’s best free skate with a pop. It’s also very possible that Japan does Shoma for the short and Yuma for the long in which case Jason has beaten Yuma as well. He would be less of a sure thing than Nathan but he would absolutely be a contender there, especially since many of the potential competitors in the even aren’t exactly known for their consistency.

That’s an absurd amount of pressure to put on Nathan’s shoulders. You’re asking him to potentially give up an individual gold for just a shot at a team gold in a sport where the team event isn’t as important to the athlete. Skaters don’t dream of making the Olympics to win gold in the team event, they dream of winning gold in their discipline! I would love for the team event to be seen as more prestigious because the strategy behind it is so interesting when you include all the top names but it isn’t there yet.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Jason’s already beaten Boyang in a free skate internationally

Jason has never beaten, or put up a score, that comes close to Boyang AT HIS BEST. Which is exactly what needs to be expected and planned for when going into an Olympic competition.

That’s an absurd amount of pressure to put on Nathan’s shoulders. You’re asking him to potentially give up an individual gold for just a shot at a team gold in a sport where the team event isn’t as important to the athlete. Skaters don’t dream of making the Olympics to win gold in the team event, they dream of winning gold in their discipline! I would love for the team event to be seen as more prestigious because the strategy behind it is so interesting when you include all the top names but it isn’t there yet.

It IS there though. We've seen a team medal directly make someone's career and open many doors for people. If USA has a big chance of a Gold medal in the event, and directly against Russia of all countries, this is going to be a MASSIVE storyline and dominate the Olympic news and social media.

Nathan is not "potentially giving up an individual gold" to skate a one extra, possibly watered-down LP in the Team event. Again, they are already training full run-throughs every day. He can just use this skate as his practice for the day. It should not be seen as any kind of hardship.

It's not an "absurd" amount of pressure either. Other athletes have to deal with far more and have to compete far more. Treating ice skaters with baby gloves like this is what's absurd. They are at the Olympics to compete. That is what they must do, and Nathan already has the experience of competing at an Olympics. Not to mention, Nathan could become the first singles skater EVER to win Double Gold at one Olympics. That would be huge for him, and if he supposedly cares so much about the Olympics and being a champion, then he needs to contribute fully to the team.

 

[Colonel Green]

and Vincent Zhou has declined from the level he previously peaked at, which itself would already not be enough to beat Shoma and Boyang.

It's unacceptable though to "save himself" for the individual event; it goes against the Olympic spirit and what hundreds of other Olympic athletes have already successfully been able to do. He can even just water down his Team LP jump content if he needs to "preserve energy", because he would still be scoring higher than any other USA guy without his highest content possible.

Vincent just skated probably his best short program ever at US nationals. I don't see any reason to think he'd be unable to win a hypothetical free skate, as things currently stand.

I especially don't see why a watered-down Nathan would automatically be superior to Vincent going all-out.

Nathan is not "potentially giving up an individual gold" to skate a one extra, possibly watered-down LP in the Team event. Again, they are already training full run-throughs every day. He can just use this skate as his practice for the day. It should not be seen as any kind of hardship.

Actual skaters don't agree with you there, based on everything I've read about doing both the team and individual events (especially when your event is the first one to go afterward, as is the case here).

 

[Blades of Passion]

Vincent just skated probably his best short program ever at US nationals. I don't see any reason to think he'd be unable to win a hypothetical free skate, as things currently stand.

I especially don't see why a watered-down Nathan would automatically be superior to Vincent going all-out.

What does the SP, which had a cheated 4Sal that wasn't called and would still score lower than Shoma/Boyang's best, have to do with beating them in the LP? Vincent has not delivered any LP's that come close to the top skates we've seen from Shoma/Boyang, and all of his LP's in the past 2 seasons have been far away from that mark.

Nathan gets crazily higher scores on reputation (and he does have some better qualities than Vincent, ofc). He can do a LP with 1 Quad Flip and 2 Quad Toes and will outscore anyone else in the world right now, aside from Hanyu, who likely won't compete the Team LP (he will do the SP though). That level of content, so difficult for everyone else, is insanely easy for him. He's the best in the world at rotating jumps and not making an apparent error, and that's by far what the scoring system and judges award. It would be a walk in the park for him to win the Team LP at this point.

Actual skaters don't agree with you there, based on everything I've read about doing both the team and individual events (especially when your event is the first one to go afterward, as is the case here).

Duhamel/Radford did it, while including full difficulty in their Team event. People are capable of more than what the status quo says; exactly as we have seen from the quad jump revolution in the sport. If there were more individual events, providing more medal opportunities, you can be sure people would be participating in them.

 

[Adjesusluvsu]

Well that would make no sense. The SP is more important in the Team event and comes earlier, so it would definitely be the LP getting skipped, if one must be.

Gotcha, I see now! I didn't think about how the point system takes away the traditional importance of the long program.

 

[Skater Boy]

The judging for the Chinese at this event is going to be generous, their Dance team is already more competitive than ever before, and I feel they will have a Lady who peaks in the Olympic year and delivers a respectable placement. Unless we see a disastrous performance from Boyang in the SP, they should be set. If Boyang does place well in the SP, they can even use Peng/Jin and Han Yan in the LP and securely get a medal for more of their skaters, which would be delightful since those particular skaters have been underrated and deserve a reward.

I agree with this assessment. China would be fave for bronze. Home country et al Their ice dance team is well received...France's chances went downwith the loss of Jame and CIpres. Ithink the battle is USA and Russia for gold. A lot will depend on how well the Russian men do. Also it helps that the Americans h ave just moved ahead probably of the Canadians in pair. Canada really is a hot mess. No real medal contenders. And not even guaranteed top ten in men and women.

 

[HeadBanger]

Then he's drastically damaging the chance of a Gold medal, not only for himself but selfishly for his entire team and country.

The medals may be the same in form, but the team event just isn't anywhere near the importance of their individual disciplines for those with a chance for gold. I recall Megan Duhamel saying something to the effect of they have a gold medal, but don't present themselves as Olympics gold medalists because they didn't get it in pairs... and they were about as keen on the team event as anyone in all of skating

And frankly, just to make a case you require every favorable assumption possible merely to catch the Russians. The may be a lock for a medal, but the US's chances for gold are slim

 

[Colonel Green]

What does the SP, which had a cheated 4Sal that wasn't called and would still score lower than Shoma/Boyang's best, have to do with beating them in the LP? Vincent has not delivered any LP's that come close to the top skates we've seen from Shoma/Boyang, and all of his LP's in the past 2 seasons have been far away from that mark.

It shows that Vincent isn't declining. He didn't compete much in the preceding season (nor, obviously, in this one), but he's doing quite well.

Duhamel/Radford did it, while including full difficulty in their Team event.

I didn't say nobody at all did it, but it's very draining (D/R certainly said it was), and in their case they weren't the gold medal favourite in the pairs event. If they had been, there's a strong chance things would have been done differently.

 

[Blades of Passion]

It shows that Vincent isn't declining.

But he already declined, multiple times...his best LP to date is 2018 Olympics and he's yet to get back to that level. There's no sign he ever will be able to either; he's abandoned the 4Flip. His best performance with downgraded content 2019 Words and he's yet to get back to that level too. We'll have to see where things are at next year, but there's no reason to believe he will suddenly become able to beat the other guys.

And frankly, just to make a case you require every favorable assumption possible merely to catch the Russians. The may be a lock for a medal, but the US's chances for gold are slim

Every favorable case isn't needed; most favorable would be the Russian guy bombing the SP (possible 5 point loss) and their top Dance team not coming back from injury strong enough, allowing USA to gain a 4 point differential over Russia there. Those things should definitely not be counted on though. Kolyada has become consistent and the Russian politics in Dance are very powerful; they could possibly even scam Stepanova/Bukin into position over the American dancers.

Also, only 2 disciplines can be split in the Team event, and it's very possible the Ladies and Dance should be split, to allow the strongest in each segment to compete. In that case, Nathan needs to do both segments anyway. If he doesn't then it hurts USA in 2 disciplines, which really is completely selfish and very damaging to the possible Gold.

 

[Colonel Green]

The last times in both cases, Italy showed up (unexpectedly for most viewers) to be able to make a good fight for the bronze even though they just missed it in the end. At the last Olympics this success was due to a good lady (Carolina), 2 good pair teams (M/H and dM/G), a good ID team (C/L) and an at that moment upcoming young man (Matteo). They didn't win any of the individual programmes, but scraped together enough points to really be a threat for Bronze. I wonder why no one is thinking about them for the Team event. They've got some pretty good young men now (Daniel is doing very well in the few competitions that there were, and Matteo is also climbing up again), one of those pairs teams is still at it and showed off some beautiful programmes at their Gran Premio and Nationals, Italy has another good ID team which has improved a lot since the OG, and they are only weak with their ladies. Of course everybody will still have to skate, but I for one have hopes that Italy will make it to the medals this time round. I realise of course that overtaking the US or Russia may be very difficult but even with better ID teams and pairs (Japan specifically, as China has two very good pair teams already) I still think the competition could be close. And, to be fair, Canada lost a bit of its clout since 2018 but still could put some good ID teams and Pairs into the mix.

I think Italy is in a fairly similar situation to Canada -- lack of natural contenders for top-two placements, but reasonably well-rounded.

The contest for bronze is kind of pitting that sort of team against teams with more peaks and valleys. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Skater Boy]

I really don't think Canadah as much of a shot. China is at home and haa an almost guaranteed gold in pairs. They have two solid men and a lady who could at leaast beat Italy, Canada, France and a decent dance team. Italy has potential in men, pairs and dance. i doubt Kostner will come back and if she does the rust may be too much and her tech skills have always been an issue. France has dance and maybe a strong guy. Canada really has no medal contender and maybe no top five. A team with no medal contender really needs tto have 3 or 4 events in top five.
Well the might make top five in dance. for get women morelike bottom five. Sorry unless Gabby gets it together Madeline, Allison and Emily really don't havemuch to contribute at the team level. The commentator bragging about the stelar performance of Madeline scoring 117 and change is almost laughable. I guess if Gabby brings it one of the men starts getting conistent quads and skates well they could be as high as top 8 maybe 6. Istill think China - home country, gold in pairs will really serve them well for bronze.

 

[Colonel Green]

A team with no medal contender really needs tto have 3 or 4 events in top five.
Well the might make top five in dance. for get women morelike bottom five. Sorry unless Gabby gets it together Madeline, Allison and Emily really don't havemuch to contribute at the team level. The commentator bragging about the stelar performance of Madeline scoring 117 and change is almost laughable. I guess if Gabby brings it one of the men starts getting conistent quads and skates well they could be as high as top 8 maybe 6. Istill think China - home country, gold in pairs will really serve them well for bronze.

I'm not sure whether you're talking about top five in the team or top five in the individual; the latter isn't really relevant when discussing the team event. Gilles/Poirier and Moore-Towers/Marinaro would comfortably be in the top five in the team event (all things being equal).

The singles disciplines are the ones with the greatest variance, and probably will decide the question of the bronze medal. Indeed, I think the ladies' short program may end up being the single most important segment in regards to that, which is somewhat ironic in that of the four countries vaguely in the mix (Canada, China, Italy, Japan) only Japan has top-ranked contenders in that category. But all that matters is how they fare relative to each other. Schizas at her best that we've seen is comparable to the best achieved by Chen or Tornaghi.

We have several men who already have consistent quads, I have no idea what you're talking about there.

 

[HeadBanger]

Canada has an outside chance, but they're gonna need their singles skaters to finish top 5 in the short... which is a bit optimistic, but they'll at least be in contention. Probably depends more on how they do relative to the Chinese skaters, if they can keep it within one point in the singles, they can make it up in the dance... but 3+ point difference and that's pretty much it

The bronze medal seems to really hinge on the SP's. One meltdown, especially in the singles and that can sink your hopes. Looking back at old standings and it's amazing how things would have changed if one bad skate was different... but that's sports!

 

[Colonel Green]

The biggest unknown factor when discussing the team event right now is that we don't know exactly which teams will qualify to fill out the short program.

In ladies, for instance, you can assume that Russia and Japan will be the default top two. Whichever American lady is sent could very well be number three, but is Young You going to be there? Korea qualified a team last time, but is at present missing a pair team and it's uncertain their dance team will be able to go, as least last I checked. Skaters like H. Chen, Schizas and Tornaghi would (at present) be back of the aforementioned in points, but how many placements would be between them? Or mixed in amongst them?

This is also the case in dance, where you can imagine there'll be a big points gap between the Japanese dance team and all of the other bronze medal contenders' teams, but how big a gap in placements?

 

[Lzbee]

I think it would be nice if the team event allowed a skater who isn't skating in the individual events to be brought along.

It would perhaps increase the prestige of the event because those skaters are more likely to value the chance to be at the Olympics. Countries with depth can give another chance to skaters who just missed out on an individual spot and countries without depth can put less pressure on their individual medal contenders. And smaller feds with two or less qualifying skaters can still participate with the skaters they have.

It also gives some variety in the programs that the audience will see as opposed to being the same as the individual events.

 

[Colonel Green]

So, post-2021 Worlds update, we're now less than a year out. Bronze medal thoughts:

Teams whose stock went up
- Japan; singles strong (other than the messy ladies' free), their pair is looking credible, dance is the weakest point.
- Canada; great results in dance and men, pairs did poor in the short program but better in the free, ladies showing signs of life finally.
- Italy; a weaker year for the ladies, but the other three disciplines look decent.

Teams whose stock went down
- China; pairs looking good, dance looks decent but not as good as last 4CC may have suggested, both singles disciplines were a debacle.
- France; ouch.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I think Boyang will get it together, he skated well at Cup of China this season. The competition is definitely more interesting now though. Japan looks to have a very solid chance of a medal, and Canada is still a threat.