2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[kenboy123]

Do skaters care that much about the team event...I feel like a lot of skaters treat it as a "3rd grade" event...

 

[Skatesocs]

Do skaters care that much about the team event...I feel like a lot of skaters treat it as a "3rd grade" event...

Team China will care about this event. None of them looked good at these World Champs (even S/H were below their level), and yet they were there to try for spots. I don't know about the rest of the teams.

 

[yume]

Do skaters care that much about the team event...I feel like a lot of skaters treat it as a "3rd grade" event...

Those who actually have a chance to win medals care. US skaters care a lot.

 

[Aglae]

If I read the qualification rules correctly there's a chance France doesn't qualify for the Team event. If they can't qualify neither a lady nor a pair, they're out. If they qualify for one of those, they can try to get a spot for an unqualified discipline just for the team event (and will most likely get it). Interestingly, if France qualifies for the Team Event P/C are now forced to also participate in this event. It doesn't make France's chances any better but would definitely help out the chances of teams with weak ice dance (looking at you team Japan).

 

[Blades of Passion]

P/C competing doesn't help out any country with weaker ice dance. P/C will either finish 1st in the SD, which means the relative placements of the other countries is unchanged, or they will finish below Russia or maybe even USA if they make a strange mistake, which means China/Japan become 1 point worse off in comparison to Russia/USA (if they had any chance to place ahead of them anyway; likely not).

The only real impact of P/C competing would be if they place 2nd behind Russia, which gives Russia 1 extra point over USA (or vice versa).

 

[lurkerghost1]

Well it's still definitely Russia gold and US silver. And in fact after Worlds Russia and the US have already clinched qualification to the Olympic Team event.

The standings right now for the teams are:

1	Russia	4387	Clinched qualification, qualified men, ladies, pairs, dance
2	United States	3793	Clinched qualification, qualified men, ladies, pairs, dance
3	Canada	2729	Qualified men, ladies, pairs, dance
4	Japan	2434	Qualified men, ladies, pairs, dance
5	China	1904	Qualified men, ladies, pairs, dance
6	Italy	1701	Qualified men, pairs, dance
7	Austria	992	Qualified only ladies, pairs
8	South Korea	930	Qualified only men, ladies
9	France	926	Qualified only men, dance
10	Belgium	787	Qualified only ladies
11	Great Britain	756	Qualified only ladies, dance
12	Germany	739	Qualified ladies, pairs, dance
13	Georgia	714	Qualified only men, ladies
14	Czech Republic	586	Qualified men, ladies, pairs
15	Estonia	552	Qualified only men, ladies
16	Belarus	422	Qualified only men

For bronze between Canada and Japan, Japan could be top 2 in all 4 singles' programs while Canada has the advantage in pairs + dance. Italy was really looking set for Bronze in 2019 but have since fallen down the rankings. Canada had a resurgence in all disciplines and Japan's pair has emerged as a more credible competitor (but ice dance is still a mess).

Austria is high thanks to Mikutina (glow up of the year!), but would need to qualify a third, probably men. There are essentially 2 open spots at Nebelhorn for small-federation skaters, and their man was #4 of the non-qualified countries so it will be close.

South Korea also only has 2 disciplines but unlike Austria, Min/Eaton have a great chance at qualifying at Nebelhorn if they're healed so I expect them to qualify as a team again. But do they even have a pair who could compete? I don't know

France would have qualified so easily 2 years ago and could have even been favorites for Bronze, but now have only qualified men and dance. Mae would have been likely to qualify Pairs only has three open spots at Nebelhorn and their pair seems to be #5#/6 of the remaining teams so that's unlikely. Do they have any other ladies' skaters to send? Anna Kuzmenko or Lea Serna maybe? Ladies has essentially 5 open spots so it's much easier.

Belgium is in 10th place entirely because of Loena but don't really stand a chance at qualifying in two other disciplines so I'm ruling them out.

Great Britain will be really close - they have ladies and dance. Zoe Jones and co. if they get back into form could be #3 of the non-qualified pairs at Nebelhorn (China #3 and Georgia are ahead). They should also move up in the standings with Fear/Gibson's performance on the Grand Prix.

Germany has three spots already qualified regardless in ladies, pairs, dance. So with teams Belgium highly likely not to qualify three spots, they are basically in to the team event.

Georgia is probably the #7 team in terms of ability actually after "the big 6," but their pairs team missed qualifying by 1/2 a point AND Kazakova/Reviya withdrew from a very likely qualification due to injury. I expect at least one to qualify at Nebelhorn though, and to gain world ranking points on the GP to move into the top 10 outright.

Czech Republic also has 3 spots already qualified (just grabbed the last spot from Georgia in pairs). If one of Austria, South Korea, France, or Great Britain doesn't qualify, they'll also be in. If Brezina does well on the GP they might also be able to overtake Belgium outright.

So at the end of the day the teams I am expecting are:
1. Russia
2. US
3. Canada
4. Japan
5. China
6. Italy
7. Georgia
8. South Korea (if they have a pair)
9. Germany
10. Austria or Great Britain, or if neither qualify a third, Czech Republic

 

[Blades of Passion]

South Korea doesn't need to have a pair. It's only required to compete in 3 disciplines, but besides that, they could just throw 2 singles skaters out there on the ice and call them a pair. Participation is all that's required to get the minimum points. In the very strange scenario that South Korea somehow even qualified to the LP, their "pair" would earn 7 Team Points from the SP + LP with the scoring in place, simply by stepping onto the ice after their name is called, skating a 1 second long program, and then stepping off the ice.

 

[HeadBanger]

Will definitely be a more interesting competition, at least for bronze. It's going to come down to which country can best avoid a disastrous result(s).

Whether Korea competes or not could be significant insofar as their role as spoiler. Being relatively strong in the singles, if they enter a team that hurts Canada and China as those as their weaknesses and w\could extend the gap Japan will build up in those events.

 

[Aglae]

P/C competing doesn't help out any country with weaker ice dance. P/C will either finish 1st in the SD, which means the relative placements of the other countries is unchanged, or they will finish below Russia or maybe even USA if they make a strange mistake, which means China/Japan become 1 point worse off in comparison to Russia/USA (if they had any chance to place ahead of them anyway; likely not).

The only real impact of P/C competing would be if they place 2nd behind Russia, which gives Russia 1 extra point over USA (or vice versa).

It depends who would go instead of France. If France qualifies and P/C skates, both Canada and Japan will be behind them. If another team qualifies, it's likely that this team would place between Canada and Japan, so that's why in my opinion it matters.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Updated prediction:

Ladies SP:
1. Russia
2. Japan
3. USA
4. South Korea
5. Canada
6. China
7. Georgia
8. Italy
9. Germany
10. France

Ladies LP:
1. Russia
2. Japan
3. USA
4. China
5. Canada

Men's SP:
1. USA
2. Japan
3. China
4. Russia
5. Canada
6. France
7. South Korea
8. Italy
9. Georgia
10. Germany

Men's LP: (reminder, Nathan Chen must compete here or else he is a disgraceful coward)
1. USA
2. Japan
3. China
4. Russia
5. Canada

Pairs SP:
1. China
2. Russia
3. USA
4. Canada
5. Italy
6. Japan
7. Germany
8. Georgia
9. France
10. South Korea

Pairs LP:
1. Russia
2. China
3. USA
4. Canada
5. Japan

Dance SP:
1. France
2. Russia
3. USA
4. Canada
5. Italy
6. China
7. Japan -- Muramoto/Takahashi will rise up!!
8. Germany
9. South Korea
10. Georgia

Dance LP:
1. Russia
2. USA
3. Canada
4. China
5. Japan

FINAL PLACEMENT:
1. Russia (72 points)
2. USA (69 points)
3. China (59 points)
4. Japan (57 points)
5. Canada (53 points)
---
6. France (18 points)
7. Italy (18 points)
8. South Korea (14 points)
9. Georgia (10 points)
10. Germany (10 points)

 

[Skatesocs]

Muramoto/Takahashi will rise up!!

Man, have you ever seen this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1cCQtYs9nc

This woman is outstanding. I think even Takahashi's musicality can't really match up She needs an all female ID team with Asada lol.

 

[nussnacker]

Men's LP: (reminder, Nathan Chen must compete here or else he is a disgraceful coward)

 

[jaylee]

I’d really love to see Chock and Bates in the team competition, and hopefully get a medal that way. Sadly, it’s looking like their chances of an individual medal are slim. They’ve had an amazing career and lots of great medal-winning performances.They just couldn’t quite reach the top, which is ok.

Hubbell and Donohue have a much better shot in the individual, so if they want to do the team, I hope they split with Chock and Bates.

 

[Colonel Green]

I’d really love to see Chock and Bates in the team competition, and hopefully get a medal that way. Sadly, it’s looking like their chances of an individual medal are slim. They’ve had an amazing career and lots of great medal-winning performances.They just couldn’t quite reach the top, which is ok.

Hubbell and Donohue have a much better shot in the individual, so if they want to do the team, I hope they split with Chock and Bates.

The issue Chock/Bates is that with the US they've got one discipline that we know for sure they will use split entries in (men, since Nathan will not do the free) and one that we can be pretty sure they won't (pairs; Knierim/Frazier are on track to do both). That leaves them choosing between two dance teams and two ladies.

If you were approaching things from the perspective of rewarding your top people, then it should be the dancers, because C/B and H/D are on a similar level and would likely place basically the same (not the case in the past when, say, people complained that the US and Canada had Davis & White and Virtue & Moir do both parts, even though that made perfect strategic sense) and the dance event is closer to the team competition so it'd give them more rest.

However, from a spectacle perspective, the American public still seems to prioritize ladies skating over disciplines they are currently way more successful in, and I can see there being pressure to spotlight more than one American lady of the three who will be going.

 

[Blades of Passion]

The issue Chock/Bates is that with the US they've got one discipline that we know for sure they will use split entries in (men, since Nathan will not do the free)

Nathan WILL do the free, unless he wants to become a National villain and selfishly ruin his teammate's chances. As I've already said before, every major news outlet is going to be made aware of the situation, how USA is in a close battle with Russia for the Team Gold, and how Nathan needs to compete the LP in order for USA to have their best chances of winning. Not only because he is by far the best there, but also because there's a limited amount of disciplines that can be split, so if he selfishly doesn't do the LP, that only further hurts USA in the event.

 

[Colonel Green]

Nathan WILL do the free, unless he wants to become a National villain and selfishly ruin his teammate's chances.

I'm sure he'll take that chance.

 

[NaVi]

I trust American men more than Russian men and that's the event with the largest potential of point swings so I personally have Russia and the USA to be essentially even.

If Kneirim and Frazier turn out to be consistent, then I might have the USA as the smidge favorites.

OK, after these Worlds I'll give Russia the slight favorites. US still have the advantage in Men which is the most volatile event.

Do skaters care that much about the team event...I feel like a lot of skaters treat it as a "3rd grade" event...

Well, Bobrova just gave an interview where she states she receives a little less than $700 a month from the Russian government for being a gold medalist... and her gold medal was just in the team event.

 

[Colonel Green]

The team event doesn't have the same degree of prestige as the individual events do, but the skaters clearly do want to win medals there and take it seriously -- particularly those who aren't necessarily contenders for individual medals (and that typically comprises up to half of the people who end up on the team event podiums).

 

[Jeanie19]

OK, after these Worlds I'll give Russia the slight favorites. US still have the advantage in Men which is the most volatile event.


Well, Bobrova just gave an interview where she states she receives a little less than $700 a month from the Russian government for being a gold medalist... and her gold medal was just in the team event.

Is that $700.00 a month forever?

 

[Skater Boy]

Those who actually have a chance to win medals care. US skaters care a lot.

Skaters who don't have a chance at an individual but can win an olympic medal really really think it is immportant ie in the past Mirai Nagasu, Adam rippon, Patrick Chan et al.I mean Jeremy Abbott can say he got the US the oly bronze medal in Russia (okay double entendre on purpose) It's a medal