2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[NaVi]

Is that $700.00 a month forever?

Pretty sure that is the intention. Quite possible somebody new comes into power that cares less about sports. The amount could always change too.

Here's what she said via google translate:

- Since athletes cannot earn for a long time in their field, are there any payments to outstanding sportsmen? - Olympic champions, those who took gold at the Olympics, are paid a monthly salary, including me. Once it was an amount of 15 thousand rubles a month, now 52 thousand rubles are regularly paid every month.
https://sobesednik.ru/sport/20210327-ekaterina-bobrova-akterskoe-ma

 

[Skater Boy]

What does the SP, which had a cheated 4Sal that wasn't called and would still score lower than Shoma/Boyang's best, have to do with beating them in the LP? Vincent has not delivered any LP's that come close to the top skates we've seen from Shoma/Boyang, and all of his LP's in the past 2 seasons have been far away from that mark.

Nathan gets crazily higher scores on reputation (and he does have some better qualities than Vincent, ofc). He can do a LP with 1 Quad Flip and 2 Quad Toes and will outscore anyone else in the world right now, aside from Hanyu, who likely won't compete the Team LP (he will do the SP though). That level of content, so difficult for everyone else, is insanely easy for him. He's the best in the world at rotating jumps and not making an apparent error, and that's by far what the scoring system and judges award. It wouldduha be a walk in the park for him to win the Team LP at this point.



Duhamel/Radford did it, while including full difficulty in their Team event. People are capable of more than what the status quo says; exactly as we have seen from the quad jump revolution in the sport. If there were more individual events, providing more medal opportunities, you can be sure people would be participating in them.

Duhamel and Radford also had it far worse than Nathan would as pairs is usuall the first event. However, Nathan's placement in the fs may not be important. Granted you never know how bad the Russian men might fall (they can only be as low as fifth in the fs. ) However if the American ladiesfor example do poorly in the sp and say are behind Russia, Japan, France or say even Canada and likewise in pairs say USA in he sp is behind Russia, China, Italy, Canada and say Japan by fluke They may be too far behind to catch up for gold then Vinny or Jason could skate for a medal.

 

[Skater Boy]

If we used 2021 worlds results i believe the results at the Olympics would be

Gold Russia or whatever variant it is called
Silver USA
Bronze Canada
Fourth Japan
Fifth China

I am surprised but my rough calculations Canada I believe could still beat japan. Mainly because Keegan wasn't too far behind the top Japanese male in each event especially when you get rid of other Japanese men (really Just Russia and the US mainly and the same effect occurred in the ladies in the short where Canada would be behind Russia, Japan, USA and maybe one other country but in dance and pairs it might make up enough to edge Japan for the bronze. I wouldn't have thought that before. But things are tighter with Japan doing well in pairs.

 

[Skatesocs]

Is that $700.00 a month forever?

I don't think $700 per month means much without context of how much it takes to live in Russia (whichever city she lives in), nor taking into account what else she earns and what this amount is for. The other things are more concerning.

 

[rollerblade]

I'll take the free $700/mo stipend for life, no matter the context.

It is not meant to replace your other source of income, it's to supplement. Unless of course, she has to work for the fed indefinitely for that $700/mo.

 

[ladyjane]

I don´t think Nathan would be a coward in not taking part in the Team Event, I think he would be kind in giving others a chance to get that medal because his own aim would be a medal in the individual event. He´s already got a Team medal. And it´s not as if the US men are at a big disadvantage without him. They are good (of course Vincent had a problem at the WC, but he did well at his Nationals and at the last OG), whether it will be Zhou, Brown or Paniot skating here.

A question about the possible ranking; why are the Italians left out of the top 5? They managed 4th place both former OG´s when there was a Team event. Granted, they had Carolina then and their women aren´t that strong for now. Their men weren´t then. But they´ve got good men now (they got themselves two spots guaranteed), a good Pair and a good Dance Team. Maybe not golden medal prospects in the individual events, but definitely good enough for getting the points in all disciplines.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I don´t think Nathan would be a coward in not taking part in the Team Event, I think he would be kind in giving others a chance to get that medal because his own aim would be a medal in the individual event. He´s already got a Team medal. And it´s not as if the US men are at a big disadvantage without him.

Nathan not doing the LP doesn't give any extra medal chance. It actually gives LESS people a medal, if a Dance pair is presumably stripped of the opportunity, in favor of 1 singles guy.

The US is at a huge disadvantage without Nathan doing the LP. The other guys do not show the capability of beating Japan, Russia, or China (assuming Boyang is healthy and skating well, which I feel confident he will be in a home-country Olympics). The US needs to finish 1st in both segments of the Men's event to have any chance of beating Russia, unless Russia completely bombs one of the SP segments and loses tons of points.

 

[ladyjane]

Nathan not doing the LP doesn't give any extra medal chance. It actually gives LESS people a medal, if a Dance pair is presumably stripped of the opportunity, in favor of 1 singles guy.

The US is at a huge disadvantage without Nathan doing the LP. The other guys do not show the capability of beating Japan, Russia, or China (assuming Boyang is healthy and skating well, which I feel confident he will be in a home-country Olympics). The US needs to finish 1st in both segments of the Men's event to have any chance of beating Russia, unless Russia completely bombs one of the SP segments and loses tons of points.

I tend to disagree on this. The US has good Dance Couples, mediocre ladies (not meant as an insult), great men and mediocre pairs (not meant as an insult either). This is a recipe which can end successfully. With or without Nathan, because there´s other men who can do the job. The US has a pool of great men. There´s some really good men right behind Nathan. And, contrary to the WTT, singles count no more than the Dance and Pairs. So the Dance Couples will play their part. As will the women, even if they don´t win their part, they´ll still gather standing points. And why shouldn´t Knierim-Frazier continue to grow? Improving on the standings. Granted, I don´t see the US winning a gold, but a silver is in the wings.

Still wanting to know why the Italians aren´t up there in the top 5 with their good men, Pairs and Dance and their less than mediocre women (again; no insult intended, it´s about their level of skating, not about the women in question).

 

[lurkerghost1]

Nathan WILL do the free, unless he wants to become a National villain and selfishly ruin his teammate's chances. As I've already said before, every major news outlet is going to be made aware of the situation, how USA is in a close battle with Russia for the Team Gold, and how Nathan needs to compete the LP in order for USA to have their best chances of winning. Not only because he is by far the best there, but also because there's a limited amount of disciplines that can be split, so if he selfishly doesn't do the LP, that only further hurts USA in the event.

But USA is not in a close battle with Russia...Russia is now officially entering Beijing with 3 world champions and will undoubtedly be top 2 in every segment except mens, while the US would be 3rd-4th in those same three disciplines. So Russia will be between 6-12 points ahead before considering men's. Let's say Nathan wins the mens short and Kolyada is 4th behind Hanyu and Boyang, although he could easily be 3rd or even 2nd if Uno or Kagiyama skate instead of Hanyu. There's no way to make up the deficit in the men's free with the gap between first and last only 4 points. So might as well just put in Jason or Vincent. Only if someone from Russia seriously bombs the short and loses 4-5 points would it then be worth it for the US to beg Nathan to skate the free.

And men and dance are the strongest disciplines we have with the most depth, so they should be split to reward the competitors in those disciplines. C/B and H/D both deserve Olympic medals, same with Nathan and Jason/Vincent. I can't see any reason for them to split ladies for marketing purposes either as Bradie already has a medal. Maybe if Glenn and Liu both make the Olympics with a 3A and they want to give both of them a chance to land it before the individual competition? idk

 

[Colonel Green]

I can't see any reason for them to split ladies for marketing purposes either as Bradie already has a medal. Maybe if Glenn and Liu both make the Olympics with a 3A and they want to give both of them a chance to land it before the individual competition? idk

Amber, if she makes the team, could very easily be a highly-publicized part of the US delegation, similar to how Adam was last time. Also, strategically, if she can get the Axel somewhat consistent it might be worth it to have her do the short program at least. And Alysa is of course the wunderkid that they've invested a fair bit in.

I'm not saying it will happen, by any means, but it's possible. NBC just put the ladies World event highlights on TV but not the ice dance even though the US medaled in the latter.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I tend to disagree on this. The US has good Dance Couples, mediocre ladies (not meant as an insult), great men and mediocre pairs (not meant as an insult either). This is a recipe which can end successfully. With or without Nathan, because there´s other men who can do the job.

There aren't other men who can do the job, unless something crazy happens. Nathan is absolutely the only one who has a realistic chance of winning the LP, which is what the US needs.

But USA is not in a close battle with Russia

Yes they are. As you can see from the projection I wrote, it's very likely only a 3 point gap between the two countries. USA gaining another point in the Ladies field is also very realistic. If Russia messes up anywhere, or if Sinitsina/Katsalpov get injured for example and aren't able to peak at the Olympics (or simply don't have programs the judges like more than a USA team, somehow), that opens the door to USA winning. There is no guarantee Russia will skate the best in every segment.

I can't see any reason for them to split ladies

I can - different programs being able to pull different scores. Amber might get a 3Axel and be able to do consistent SP's, but not be able to get through LP's cleanly with that element. Or maybe Karen is outscoring everyone in the LP with clean 2A+3T's, but isn't as consistent with the 3Lz+3T in the SP. Or maybe some new person comes along that has a Quad, which they can't use in the SP.

 

[Skatesocs]

I hope we can continue the Team Discussion in this thread. Let's keep track of which teams are already into the team event, and which are most likely to go into the event.

 

[Andrea82]

At the moment 9 countries have at least 3 qualified spots in the individual events

Russia
USA
Canada
Japan
Italy
China
Georgia
Germany
Czech Republic

who can reach the 3 required "individual" entries ?

Ukraine depending on Shabotova in Women
South Korea depending on Min/Eaton in Ice Dance
France depending on Serna in Women

Ukraine is probably the one with fewer points in the Team Event ranking but the best placed to obtain 3 qualified spot given the results of the Nebelhorn SPs.

 

[Skatesocs]

Ukraine is probably the one with fewer points in the Team Event ranking but the best placed to obtain 3 qualified spot given the results of the Nebelhorn SPs.

Thank you! Where is the document I can read for this Team Event ranking point system?

 

[Laid-Back Enthusiast]

Israel depending on the ice dance team in Nebelhorn although unlikely... and maybe Belarus?

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

Israel depending on the ice dance team in Nebelhorn although unlikely... and maybe Belarus?

Belarus failed to qualify a pair and their ice dance team withdrew, so sadly they cannot qualify.

 

[Andrea82]

Thank you! Where is the document I can read for this Team Event ranking point system?

You can see the number of points per placement and type of competition at page 9 here (annex A)

https://www.isu.org/docman-documents-links-2/2022-beijing/qualification-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file

Israel depending on the ice dance team in Nebelhorn although unlikely... and maybe Belarus?

I forgot about Israel. Yes, theoretically still in the run. They need one between Women and Dance.
Hungary would need both.

 

[Skatesocs]

You can see the number of points per placement and type of competition at page 9 here (annex A)
https://www.isu.org/docman-document...tion-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file

So basically we still have to wait for the GPs (and 4CCs/Euros if needed), but since we still need to see who has qualified at least three disciplines to the OWG, we can be sure that Russia, USA, Canada, Japan, and China are all in the team event, simply because they have all 4, and basically no country other than Italy and Georgia has hopes for qualifying all 4?

Think we can be certain Serna won't make it, so no France in the Team Event. Min/Eaton are on the bubble for South Korea. Unless Shabotova disasters, Ukraine will have its three disciplines.

 

[Skatesocs]

Ukraine has three disciplines now!

Lara Naki Gutmann out of the running for now, but Italy still has three disciplines qualified.

France is out of it for sure.

So right now it looks like:

Russia
USA
Canada
Japan
Italy
China
Georgia
Germany
Czech Republic
Ukraine

With South Korea's ID team on the bubble. Israel's Woman didn't make it, but the ID team is still on the bubble. And then we start computing the points. I think Min/Eaton and the Israeli team might not be able to do it, so we'll get Ukraine?

 

[Alegria]

What about Lithuanian dance team? If they will give up their spot it can help South Korea or Israel.