2022 U.S. Nationals: Men's Short Program

[moonvine]

It is not mutually exclusive to be an alternate to the Olympics and to go to Four Continents.

For 2022, USFS already has named Gabbie Izzo as third alternate to the Olympics and also has given her a Four Continents slot.

In 2018, Jason and Max were named as alternates for the Olympics -- plus they both went to Four Continents.



Junior Worlds are after the Olympics.

It is normally not mutually exclusive, but based on our sample size of 1, USFS is not sending first alternate to 4 CCs. I will be interested to see if they follow that pattern.

Thanks for the info regarding Junior Worlds. I’m not able to keep up with Juniors the way I’d like to.

 

[taikwan]

Start order is up for the free - https://ijs.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2022/29546/CAT007SEG016.html

 

[lariko]

The US has already established clear BOW criteria. llia doesn't meet those criteria. He literally can't overcome Jason's lead in the criteria unless Jason totally falls apart in the FS. You can have any opinion of who you believe should be sent but if the US doesn't send Jason they won't be following their own rules that they set out prior to this season unless, as mentioned, Jason has a terrible FS. If Jason falls apart in the LP, Ilya should and probably will be sent to the Olympics.


Not making the FS is a concern in these two cases particularly, not because of some imaginary situation that could happen to anyone, ( it could as you mentioned) but because of their SP scores this year. The cut-off score for the LP last Olympics was around 75 points. I think it will likely be over 80 this time. (at least I hope it will if the competition isn't horrible) Mozalev scored 68,72, and 80 in SP this year. Malinin scored 67 in his senior international SP. None of these scores are likely to make the LP at the Olympics. Jason Brown has had only one SP score under 90 in the last two years. (a 89) It is impossible to predict what will happen at any given event but federations try to make the best guess of who they believe will bring the best results and the lowest risk. Jason has a far higher floor than Malinin. I'm not sure there is any evidence that Malinin has a higher ceiling than Jason since his highest score ever internationally is 245 points while Jason's is 274 points. Mozalev vs. Semenenko is a much harder call since I think it is clear that Mozalev has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. That decision could have gone either way. But, Jason has a lower floor and a higher ceiling based on previous scores. What's the argument for Ilya? Giving him experience? Yes, sure. He should get experience and I am sure he will be given opportunities by the USFS who has given all the junior turned senior skaters international assignments. Jason is still in the top 3 US men, not because the others haven't had opportunities, but because they haven't delivered when it mattered. Ilya was already given a senior assignment this year. He didn't deliver. I see him being named as an alternate to the Olympic team. With that in mind, he won't be sent to 4CC because the alternates aren't being assigned to 4CC this year due to COVID-19 safety concerns. He doesn't have the minimums for Worlds. But, I am sure he will go to JWs.

The tech mins for the Olympics are lower. He has them.

And then what? Malin starts next year as, potentially and very probably, JWC, but Brown is still highly decorated 3rd men in the States, so… Brown again will be preferred next year, since he will continue jump triples, supported by the ever-lengthening history of international competitions.

And, if there is no junior worlds, it’s going to end up even skimpier for Malinin.

 

[moonvine]

People are really putting the cart before the horse after seeing one (1) clean SP from a junior skater.

Some people go absolutely out of their minds after one skate from a promising junior. They’ve already started naming the Olympic team for 2026 for the women based on one comp. It drives me crazy but I have no choice but to adjust as they will certainly do it despite my feelings on the matter.

 

[moonvine]

He withdrew at the last moment, as did Tomoki. I was also looking forward to seeing both of them. I don't know the reason. I would assume COVID or injury

It’s so sad. Have a terrible feeling it will be sadder before the Olympics. Hope I’m very very very wrong.

 

[moonvine]

Historically the US has gone with newly eligible skaters with strong potential to be world and Olympic medals for experience and that decision has paid of for them.

They sent Meisner she ended up world champion a few months later. Vincent was sixth at the Olympics and on the world podium.

Technically Illia is stronger than both of those.

Jason has an outside shot at an Olympic medal only if a lot of people skate very poorly.

And heck with that argument ilia could jump his way to one too.

The Olympics are better than worlds there are no spots on the line

If you have a new senior who has the talent to be a world or Olympic medalist it makes sense to send them over a more established senior skater who has shown time and time again they aren’t competitive for a world or Olympic medal.

If USFS does not go by their established criteria to select an Olympic team they have basically thrown their established selection criteria out the window and that would be grossly unfair to all the athletes.

 

[bekalc]

The US has already established clear BOW criteria. llia doesn't meet those criteria. He literally can't overcome Jason's lead in the criteria unless Jason totally falls apart in the FS. You can have any opinion of who you believe should be sent but if the US doesn't send Jason they won't be following their own rules that they set out prior to this season unless, as mentioned, Jason has a terrible FS. If Jason falls apart in the LP, Ilya should and probably will be sent to the Olympics.


Not making the FS is a concern in these two cases particularly, not because of some imaginary situation that could happen to anyone, ( it could as you mentioned) but because of their SP scores this year. The cut-off score for the LP last Olympics was around 75 points. I think it will likely be over 80 this time. (at least I hope it will if the competition isn't horrible) Mozalev scored 68,72, and 80 in SP this year. Malinin scored 67 in his senior international SP. None of these scores are likely to make the LP at the Olympics. Jason Brown has had only one SP score under 90 in the last two years. (a 89) It is impossible to predict what will happen at any given event but federations try to make the best guess of who they believe will bring the best results and the lowest risk. Jason has a far higher floor than Malinin. I'm not sure there is any evidence that Malinin has a higher ceiling than Jason since his highest score ever internationally is 245 points while Jason's is 274 points. Mozalev vs. Semenenko is a much harder call since I think it is clear that Mozalev has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. That decision could have gone either way. But, Jason has a lower floor and a higher ceiling based on previous scores. What's the argument for Ilya? Giving him experience? Yes, sure. He should get experience and I am sure he will be given opportunities by the USFS who has given all the junior turned senior skaters international assignments. Jason is still in the top 3 US men, not because the others haven't had opportunities, but because they haven't delivered when it mattered. Ilya was already given a senior assignment this year. He didn't deliver. I see him being named as an alternate to the Olympic team. With that in mind, he won't be sent to 4CC because the alternates aren't being assigned to 4CC this year due to COVID-19 safety concerns. He doesn't have the minimums for Worlds. But, I am sure he will go to JWs.

The tech mins for the Olympics are lower. He has them.

Ilia made the JGPF as the top qualifier he has delivered enough this season.

The criteria only puts Jason in top three tier. He does not have the scores to be be anything higher than top 3 tier.

If Ilia places third he is also top 3 tier.

If Ilia remains in juniors this year he is not going to have the scores this year either So what do you do keep a young skater down Ilia again next year.

At some point you have to give young skaters opportunities. If Ilia skates clean here in the free his TES could demolish Jason. And his jumps aren’t questionable.

Body of work isn’t designed to prop up a skater who has never shown they can compete for world and Olympic medals versus a young skater who has the talent to be competitive very quickly if they get exposure and experience.

It has long been the policy of the USFSA to give young skaters the opportunity to compete at big competitions like the Olympics if they show promise and that policy has held them in extremely good stead for decades.

 

[Olympic]

WOW. The SP was one hell of a well-skated event. Four men scored 100+. No one takes Nationals scores seriously in any country. Mostly, it's the Fed of that country signaling or sending an international message.

For those whining about Nathan's PCS in contrast to Yuzuru Hanyu, Yuzu is not even here, so I don't know what you stand to benefit by bringing it up in a US Nationals thread. International judges always put Yuzu above Nathan in PCS, so that is understood by the Intl. skating community.

Nathan does not normally UR and has textbook take-off and air positions on jumps. I agree that the ride-out isn't incredible, but I do think that is offset when you consider overall quality, because he avoids pre-rotations better than many others including Vincent, whom I also love. That 4Z looked 1/4 turn on his ice tracing, so if he got a 'q' I would be OK with that, but it doesn't normally happen.

Nathan also has a quiet sophistication while skating to his music that doesn't necessarily grab viewers by the throat, which I think most people notice, except a few non-fans

Camden would've probably landed in front of Jimmy but for the messy in-between on the combo.

 

[readernick]

And then what? Malin starts next year as, potentially and very probably, JWC, but Brown is still highly decorated 3rd men in the States, so… Brown again will be preferred next year, since he will continue jump triples, supported by the ever-lengthening history of international competitions.

And, if there is no junior worlds, it’s going to end up even skimpier for Malinin.

He goes out and consistently lands jumps and learns to use his knees on crossovers ( his lack of knee bend bothers me right now) and he gets high scores internationally. Then he will be selected for everything. If he doesn't surpass Jason, that's his fault for not doing his job not Jason's. Tomoki, Camden, Andrew and numerous other successful junior performers were given a lot of assignments by the USFS when they turned Senior. They all seemed like potential threats to Jason.I like them all but ...guess, what? They didn't perform to potential and their BOW is still not great. They had chances. Ilya will be given chances. It will be in his hands to use them.

 

[bekalc]

If USFS does not go by their established criteria to select an Olympic team they have basically thrown their established selection criteria out the window and that would be grossly unfair to all the athletes.

Based on the criteria Jason is in top three priority. If Ilia wins a medal at Nationals he will also be top three. Ilia has a very good junior season finishing as top JGPF qualifier.

This won’t be a fluke. It’s their first head to head match up

 

[WeakAnkles]

Jason Brown's SP is one of the few programs I've seen this year that is a genuine masterpiece. Yeah, Malin can jump, but I'd rather watch a COMPLETE program than a jumpfest. Just my two coppers.

Nathan looked very graphically dapper. And the program is a winner. I liked Johnny's description of it; it is a VERY American style of dance, that kind of athletic casualness. Me likes it. Me likes it a lot.

Josh Grobin should be outlawed from singing Vincent. That song belongs to Don MacLean. But I am super duper impressed by how much Vincent has improved in terms of style and projection and emotion.

Terrific competition.

 

[moonvine]

Based on the criteria Jason is in top three priority. If Ilia wins a medal at Nationals he will also be top three. Ilia has a very good junior season finishing as top JGPF qualifier.

This won’t be a fluke. It’s their first head to head match up

Let’s just wait and see what happens shall we?

 

[YuBluByMe]

Not making the FS is a concern in these two cases particularly, not because of some imaginary situation that could happen to anyone, ( it could as you mentioned) but because of their SP scores this year. The cut-off score for the LP last Olympics was around 75 points. I think it will likely be over 80 this time. (at least I hope it will if the competition isn't horrible) Mozalev scored 68,72, and 80 in SP this year. Malinin scored 67 in his senior international SP. None of these scores are likely to make the LP at the Olympics. Jason Brown has had only one SP score under 90 in the last two years. (an 89) It is impossible to predict what will happen at any given event but federations try to make the best guess of who they believe will bring the best results and the lowest risk. Jason has a far higher floor than Malinin. I'm not sure there is any evidence that Malinin has a higher ceiling than Jason since his highest score ever internationally is 245 points while Jason's is 274 points. Mozalev vs. Semenenko is a much harder call since I think it is clear that Mozalev has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. That decision could have gone either way. But, Jason has a lower floor and a higher ceiling based on previous scores. What's the argument for Ilya?

If hasn’t happened yet, but if Malinin gets on the podium, beating Brown by 7 or more points, then there is your argument. Brown doesn’t have to skate badly. This could happen if they both skates lights out. The relevant criteria for both of them is this: Place top 3 at Nationals OR consistently score the equivalent to top 10 at Worlds. If Malinin gets on the podium, he will met one criteria and Brown will meet the other. Neither of them will meet both. In the event that they do well, USFed will have look to deeper into the numbers as Malilin competed primarily as a junior. Malinin does have a score (out of 3 competitions) that made the top 10. One of his junior scores. His other two scores are top 15. (Priority 4).

It’s not really cut and dried in this situation. If boils down to this: a) Do you choose the skater that for sure places top 10, but fell out of the top 3 at Nationals or; b) Choose the guy that got on the podium, will likely make top 15, but may place top 10?

I’m not concerned about Malinin not making the FS. That two-month Austria SP is an anomaly. He’s nailed his SP in his other two international competitions. I think he’s good. In the event that he does well in the FS, I also won’t worry about him doing well at the Olympics. Once upon a time, a 17-year old named Evgeni Semenenko with zero senior international experience (and almost no international experience at all) placed 8th at Worlds and RusFed lived happily after. The argument that a fresh skater shouldn’t be sent to Olympics or Worlds even after earning it because of “reasons” is hogwash.

Therefore, I personally will go with B. He won’t be chosen for the team event and there’s no harm done if Malinin falters. He won’t be a podium contender (neither is Brown) and Chen and Zhou are more than capable of holding it down. Is there a reason that he absolutely needs to score 260 at the Olympics?

But Malinin beating Brown by a negligible margin? Yeah, choose Brown.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Some people go absolutely out of their minds after one skate from a promising junior. They’ve already started naming the Olympic team for 2026 for the women based on one comp. It drives me crazy but I have no choice but to adjust as they will certainly do it despite my feelings on the matter.

Agreed.

From practices it seems Malinin is only going for the lutz and toe in his FS, even though he’s capable of the others. I think he’ll need to show more than 2 quad types to make a case for being selected over Brown but it’s unlikely he will get the PCS.

We will have to see how he skates but one SP does not an Olympic spot make.

He did two quads and only scored 3 points more than Brown. He hasn’t performed even close to cleanly on the Junior Circuit let alone senior. And people say he should go to the Olympics? Come on now.

 

[Wafflecakes]

He goes out and consistently lands jumps and learns to use his knees on crossovers ( his lack of knee bend bothers me right now) and he gets high scores internationally. Then he will be selected for everything. If he doesn't surpass Jason, that's his fault for not doing his job not Jason's. Tomoki, Camden, Andrew and numerous other successful junior performers were given a lot of assignments by the USFS when they turned Senior. They all seemed like potential threats to Jason.I like them all but ...guess, what? They didn't perform to potential and their BOW is still not great. They had chances. Ilya will be given chances. It will be in his hands to use them.

Meh. None of those boys had the technical firepower Ilia has. Not the same situation at all imo.

 

[moonvine]

Is there no thread for the men’s free or am I missing it?

 

[bekalc]

If hasn’t happened yet, but if Malinin gets on the podium, beating Brown by 7 or more points, then there is your argument. Brown doesn’t have to skate badly. This could happen if they both skates lights out. The relevant criteria for both of them is this: Place top 3 at Nationals OR consistently score the equivalent to top 10 at Worlds. If Malinin gets on the podium, he will met one criteria and Brown will meet the other. Neither of them will meet both. In the event that they do well, USFed will have look to deeper into the numbers as Malilin competed primarily as a junior. Malinin does have a score (out of 3 competitions) that made the top 10. One of his junior scores. His other two scores are top 15. (Priority 4).

It’s not really cut and dried in this situation. If boils down to this: a) Do you choose the skater that for sure places top 10, but fell out of the top 3 at Nationals or; b) Choose the guy that got on the podium, will likely make top 15, but may place top 10?

I’m not concerned about Malinin not making the FS. That two-month Austria SP is an anomaly. He’s nailed his SP in his other two international competitions. I think he’s good. In the event that he does well in the FS, I also won’t worry about him doing well at the Olympics. Once upon a time, a 17-year old named Evgeni Semenenko with zero senior international experience (and almost no international experience at all) placed 8th at Worlds and RusFed lived happily after. The argument that a fresh skater shouldn’t be sent to Olympics or Worlds even after earning it because of “reasons” is hogwash.

Therefore, I personally will go with B. He won’t be chosen for the team event and there’s no harm done if Malinin falters. He won’t be a podium contender (neither is Brown) and Chen and Zhou are more than capable of holding it down. Is there a reason that he absolutely needs to score 260 at the Olympics?

But Malinin beating Brown by a negligible margin? Yeah, choose Brown.

It’s not just a just that Juniors PCs are Lower they have one less elements and aren’t allowed to do quads in the short. The fact that he placed that high or a score at one of his JGP is a point in his favor.

Look the USFSA started dominating men’s when they got behind the men who could compete technically. In 2016 they almost put themselves in position to not take Nathan for 2016 worlds over body of work only junior scored and the refusal to give him the 2016 nations win.

It took the international judges getting Behind Nathan for things to change. Given opportunities to compete to the men like Nathan and Vincent who have shown they fan compete technically has given them multiple world medals.

Ilias PCs will rise if he gets in front of international judges.

Are the US looking for nine place or are they looking for Champions. This is a sport.

 

[mrrice]

Jason Brown's SP is one of the few programs I've seen this year that is a genuine masterpiece. Yeah, Malin can jump, but I'd rather watch a COMPLETE program than a jumpfest. Just my two coppers.

Nathan looked very graphically dapper. And the program is a winner. I liked Johnny's description of it; it is a VERY American style of dance, that kind of athletic casualness. Me likes it. Me likes it a lot.

Josh Grobin should be outlawed from singing Vincent. That song belongs to Don MacLean. But I am super duper impressed by how much Vincent has improved in terms of style and projection and emotion.

Terrific competition.

This is exactly how I feel. I have watched and re-watched Ilia and Jason as they were back to back in the broadcast. Yes, Ilia can jump however, Jason is better in every other area. First of all, Jason is in the best shape of his life. He is faster than Ilia and other than the jumps, his choreography is a MILE ahead of Ilia's. Jason has real performance qualities, and his footwork and spins are the best of all the Men. If it's even close, I would send Jason over Ilia in a heartbeat. Ilia will have his time in the sun.

 

[ruffledgrouse]

Is there no thread for the men’s free or am I missing it?

I can't find it either, and GS was down for me completely for about 30 minutes

 

[moonvine]

I can't find it either, and GS was down for me completely for about 30 minutes

The thread is here now.