2023 Team Japan (WC/JWC/4CC)

[zanadude]

Apologies. It is true that Keiji had a relatively successful GP season in 2019, being 3rd and 5th in his assignments IIRC? In any case, it doesn't take away from my original point: JSF has made these types of judgement calls before, in which not always the person with highest placement at Nats got the spot, and other factors were considered. This happened at Nats 2019 in both Men and Women, so I thought it was a good example to bring it up.

Your intended point is fine, and I agree with it. But it gave people the mistaken impression that there are occasions where the JSF completely ignores the qualification criteria, which I felt required correction.

 

[Dawn825]

You're all over the place here. You argue that having open participation disadvantages both junior and seniors, then mention a junior (Mone) that was only invited to this competition by virtue of her status and performance as a junior being unfairly being passed over for senior worlds due to the placement of another junior.

Mone is 15 and old enough to go to 4CC/World's. I thought my post was pretty clear that "junior" was referring to anyone not eligible to go to senior competitions.

 

[zanadude]

Mone is 15 and old enough to go to 4CC/World's. I thought my post was pretty clear that "junior" was referring to anyone not eligible to go to senior competitions. I said that several times...

She was only eligible to be in Nationals by qualification through Junior Nationals. So if your position is that non-seniors should not be competing with seniors, then Mone didn't earn the right to be in this competition to begin with.

 

[Dawn825]

I can edit my original post for clarification. "Under-15 year olds" should not be allowed at senior competitions.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

She was only eligible to be in Nationals by qualification through Junior Nationals. So if your position is that non-seniors should not be competing with seniors, then Mone didn't earn the right to be in this competition to begin with.

That's assuming Mone (and her team) would have acted the same if the rules were different and she couldn't qualify for Nationals via Junior Nationals. Hana competed as a Senior domestically, and Mone could have too, i.e. she (in contrast to Mao, Ami, ...) was capable of qualifying for Nationals in a Jr Nats-independent way.

JSF has a track record of sending skaters to JWC even if they've only competed at Nationals and not Junior Nats, so Nationals would be the more important competition for her and she might be willing to miss Jr Nats for a chance at making the 4CC or WC team.
And that's assuming that JSF would continue not allowing skaters who qualified for Nationals as seniors domestically to compete at Jr Nats.

 

[el henry]

Note that it's not called "Senior" Nationals, because there is no such thing. There is no qualifier, because "Nationals" is all-inclusive.

In the US, Nats are divided between junior and senior. Very interesting to learn that Japan calls it differently.

(at least where the rubber hits the road in selling tickets, that's the label the USFed uses)

https://www.ticketmaster.com/us-figure-skating-championships-tickets/artist/844391

Jumping off, I also have mixed feelings about skaters who are not eligible for senior Worlds competing at senior Nats, but not strongly enough to argue about it.

 

[treblemakerem]

In my opinion, inviting skater under 15 to senior Nationals is a big mistake, in every country. Senior Nationals is held primarily to determine senior international team spots, and people who are not eligible for those spots should not be there. It makes a mess and there's no point. It doesn't benefit the juniors in any real way and it sabotages the older girls. Mone could have made the podium here, and met the criteria for Worlds. Rinka should go to Worlds because she's the only one who qualified. But why was that the case? The federation could have given themselves the freedom to chose between her and whoever came third. But by inviting the juniors, they were risking third going to someone too young and not having another option, and that's what happened. It's an issue, as you say, but one with a very simple solution. Skaters go to junior nationals to be considered for junior teams, and to senior nationals for senior teams.
Rinka has lot of talent, has performed several clean triple axels, and had a brilliant FS in Canada. I believe in her <3

Or they could just change their criteria to top 3 age-eligible skaters at nationals rather than top 3 at nationals. Then they could have chosen Mone if they wanted to.

 

[zanadude]

That's assuming Mone (and her team) would have acted the same if the rules were different and she couldn't qualify for Nationals via Junior Nationals. Hana competed as a Senior domestically, and Mone could have too, i.e. she (in contrast to Mao, Ami, ...) was capable of qualifying for Nationals in a Jr Nats-independent way.

I'm assuming nothing because, in this world, she did take advantage of the benefits offered to her as a junior, and being able to "ride the fence" to do whatever suited her.

I guess what I most object to is people seeing Nationals as nothing but a qualification for other competitions, instead of as one of the most important competitions of the year in its own right. So I'd rather they completely decouple the two, and not use Nationals for anything but deciding assignments for the next season, and decide Worlds/4CC solely on the basis of the international tournament results alone.

 

[readernick]

TireOr they could just change their criteria to top 3 age-eligible skaters at nationals rather than top 3 at nationals. Then they could have chosen Mone if they wanted to.

They could make that change in the future if they want to. However, if you publish criteria before a season and then change those criteria as soon as it yields a result you don't like, that's unethical/ unjust.

Rules are made to be followed, not broken. Changing rules during a game when they don't allow you or your chosen favorite to win is what toddlers do. If the rules are detrimental to the federation's goals, I'm sure they will change them before next season but they shouldn't do that retroactively. How unfair would that be to the skaters? Honestly, all another senior-eligible skater had to do to be eligible to go to Worlds was get on the podium. They didn't. Rinka was the only eligible skater according to the federation's rules. I don't see how this selection was controversial at all.

 

[Sai Bon]

Mone is 15 and old enough to go to 4CC/World's. I thought my post was pretty clear that "junior" was referring to anyone not eligible to go to senior competitions.

Mone is 17, not 15. https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/mone-chiba.90034/

 

[zanadude]

So yes, I believe that a 17 year old participating as a junior has no standing to complain about two other juniors knocking her out of contention for senior qualification. If she wants to go to senior Worlds, then the onus is on her to nail her opening triple flip and secure her place on the actual podium.

 

[yume]

Or they could just change their criteria to top 3 age-eligible skaters at nationals rather than top 3 at nationals. Then they could have chosen Mone if they wanted to.

Top 3 at nationals already means nothing for a junior. You're considered but you will likely be ditched for the next senior teammate who meets the criteria. Yuma, Tomoe, Shoma and probably others that i don't know, experienced that.
The truth is that it's incredibly hard for juniors to meet the criteria for WC, let alone be selected, while it's incredibly easy for seniors to get selected for JWC.
Getting on podium is hard but doesn't seem the hardest criteria to meet. Many juniors medaled the past 10 seasons, especially in ladies, but most were not senior-eligible (Shimada, Kihira, Higuchi, Miyahara, etc.). Often, even if there is no junior on podium there is one in top 5 (this year there is three in ladies), so they are always close.
Being in top 3 WS is almost impossible. Seniors get much more points for their events than juniors. And a skater who competed internationally a year before is advantaged. Even Higuchi and Kagiyama who missed most of the season still are high on the list. A very successful junior still will be way behind a senior who didn't medal once. The first junior men and women are way behind in the 60s or the 80s.
For the SB, you must have an exceptional layout as Mao (who still has the best SB btw) or expect most of seniors to bomb. Juniors are disvantaged by the lower BV (no stsq in the free) and SP rules that don't allow some to put their best jumps in their layout or salvage their combo. Not even talking about the PCS gap.
Top2 GPF: juniors aren't allowed in GPF. Fed said JGPF doesn't matter.
I find it unfair that juniors who did well during the season (as medaling in JGP, making it to JGPF, medaling at junior nats) have to hope that no senior, young enough to be junior-eligible, finish above them at nats. Senior who chose to move up to seniors and to compete for seniors spots.
While juniors can meet the criteria but hope for a miracle to be selected for WC.

 

[tsuyoboogie]

Indeed. Junior Nationals mean nothing. I disagree with Miura’s selection, but not because JFed went against their selection criteria. Strategically, it makes sense as Yoshioka and Nakamura aren’t the best team to regain the third spot.

I disagree because I strongly dislike sending skaters who competed at the senior level and are competitive at the senior level to junior competitions. Also, sending Nakamura isn’t a bad choice at all anyway. Japan probably won’t gain the third spot back but they certainly won’t lose one and they should be able to keep the JGP spots too.

First let me say, I agree with the bolded sentence above and generally feel the same

However, I've always felt that JGP spots are way more important than JWC spots, especially if there's a lot of upcoming talent
In recent years, because the Junior Women's field has been dominated by multiple skaters from just a few countries it's easier for the Japanese Women to earn the maximum JGP spots (14) or b level (7+unused) than it would be to keep 3 JWC spots (Mao and Ami should be able to earn both)
The Men however, is the opposite case
With the Junior Men, you tend to have 1 or 2 medal contenders from up to maybe 10 different countries
Since only the top 3 placing countries earn max JGP spots it's important to send a man that can podium or at least place high enough to earn 7+unused spots

Nozomu's strength is his jumps. But he's prone to popping and messy landings
His skating skills are decent but his lack of performance ability, particularly when the jumps arent working is going to hold his PCS back

Shunsuke's is a charismatic performer, capable technically but a bit wild and unpredictable
He has a tendency of making silly, sometimes costly errors (since Novice)

Looking at the other Men possibly competing JWC (some of these assignments may have already been announced without my knowledge)

After JGPF I'd say Nikolaj Memola (ITA) and at least one of the U.S. men are strong medal favorites

Neither have much fire power but If either Younghyun Cha or Minkyu Seo are assigned and go clean while the others are messy they could easily sneak on the podium (note: Korea only has one Men's spot so it'll likely one or the other)

Both Yudong Chen (CHN) and Naoki Rossi (SUI) are inconsistent but strong technically as well as gifted performers

With Canada having 3 spots and not a real dominant Junior Man they might decide to send Stephen Gogolev and/or Wesley Chiu who competed as Senior this season but are still age eligible

Same goes for Arlet Levandi (EST)

Kazakhstan also has 3 spots earned last season by Mikhail Shaidorov.
Not sure of his status right now but if he's able to secure the necessary visa or whatever is needed to compete, he's still eligible as well

I feel bad for Shunsuke, especially because I selfishly wanted Kao to have one more chance at the Junior Worlds title, I pray healthy and in top form this time
Though this decision may seem unfair, going by the criteria set, Kao actually qualifies over Shunsuke for the assignment
And providing he remains uninjured and in good health he's also Japan's best bet to earn maximum JGP spots for next season

 

[OksVin]

Kao got another opportunity to win gold at the World Junior Championships. I don’t know how fair this is to those who stood on the podium of the Japan Junior Championships. I hope Kao will justify such trust. Otherwise, you can then get harsh comments from those who expected Shunsuke or Takeru to perform in Calgary (although he failed at the Japanese Championship).

 

[YuBluByMe]

First let me say, I agree with the bolded sentence above and generally feel the same

However, I've always felt that JGP spots are way more important than JWC spots, especially if there's a lot of upcoming talent
In recent years, because the Junior Women's field has been dominated by multiple skaters from just a few countries it's easier for the Japanese Women to earn the maximum JGP spots (14) or b level (7+unused) than it would be to keep 3 JWC spots (Mao and Ami should be able to earn both)
The Men however, is the opposite case
With the Junior Men, you tend to have 1 or 2 medal contenders from up to maybe 10 different countries
Since only the top 3 placing countries earn max JGP spots it's important to send a man that can podium or at least place high enough to earn 7+unused spots

Nozomu's strength is his jumps. But he's prone to popping and messy landings
His skating skills are decent but his lack of performance ability, particularly when the jumps arent working is going to hold his PCS back

Shunsuke's is a charismatic performer, capable technically but a bit wild and unpredictable
He has a tendency of making silly, sometimes costly errors (since Novice)

Looking at the other Men possibly competing JWC (some of these assignments may have already been announced without my knowledge)

After JGPF I'd say Nikolaj Memola (ITA) and at least one of the U.S. men are strong medal favorites

Neither have much fire power but If either Younghyun Cha or Minkyu Seo are assigned and go clean while the others are messy they could easily sneak on the podium (note: Korea only has one Men's spot so it'll likely one or the other)

Both Yudong Chen (CHN) and Naoki Rossi (SUI) are inconsistent but strong technically as well as gifted performers

With Canada having 3 spots and not a real dominant Junior Man they might decide to send Stephen Gogolev and/or Wesley Chiu who competed as Senior this season but are still age eligible

Same goes for Arlet Levandi (EST)

Kazakhstan also has 3 spots earned last season by Mikhail Shaidorov.
Not sure of his status right now but if he's able to secure the necessary visa or whatever is needed to compete, he's still eligible as well

I feel bad for Shunsuke, especially because I selfishly wanted Kao to have one more chance at the Junior Worlds title, I pray healthy and in top form this time
Though this decision may seem unfair, going by the criteria set, Kao actually qualifies over Shunsuke for the assignment
And providing he remains uninjured and in good health he's also Japan's best bet to earn maximum JGP spots for next season

Thank you for clarifying how JGP spots are earned. I didn’t know the specifics. I watched Junior Worlds last season and the entire JGP this season and I only know there were plenty of Japanese junior men on the circuit despite losing a spot at Junior Worlds. Based on that, I thought Yoshioka and Nakamura will be able to keep the JGP spots since the spots seem to be unrelated to Worlds spots. But apparently it was only a coincidence that they kept spots because Tsuboi won the bronze medal.

However, knowing that doesn’t change my opinion because I already knew that choosing Miura was a strategic choice. In fact, I disagree even more now because Miura on the team isn’t even a surefire way to keep the maximum GP spots, only gaining the third JW spot. Miura isn’t the favorite for the JW title, but he’s obviously a podium threat and he needs to be on the podium. His TES in the free is a huge advantage, but not being able to do quads in the SP is going to disadvantage him. I’m not talking about total score; I’m talking about how I suspect his basic triples aren’t squared away. It’s something I noticed at 4CC last year. (Has Miura ever even competed as a junior internationally?) I don’t think I ever seen him do a 3T combination on a triple and he notably doesn’t have a 3Lz in his free skate. Ironically, he may be working from a deficit going into the free because he can only do 3s in the SP. But perhaps my suspicions are wrong.

Also, unless I’m mistaken and that’s entirely possible, Miura does not fit the criteria for Junior Worlds more than any skater that actually competed as a junior. JFed did not go by their rules; they blatantly went against them for strategic reasons. Miura did not compete at Junior Nationals. He did not compete at JGPF. He did not make the podium at Nationals. His TES is not among the top 3 men in Japan (that will be Uno, Yamamoto, Sato) and he definitely did not make the podium at last year’s Junior Worlds. The only criteria that Miura fulfills is top 3 SB, which is weighted below Junior Nationals podium and JGPF. If JFed followed their criteria with the same boneheaded absurdity as they did the ladies, then the second JW spot would actually go to Kataise. But they did not, which means they definitely could have done so for other selections.

(Yup, I did the “math” yesterday morning for all the selections. The TES part took longer than necessary for the 4CC ladies since I had to do top 6 and domestic scores count).

Other than the insult to Miura and the other junior men, the other issue with choosing him is that it means Junior Nationals is irrelevant and without point. It’s a waste of time and resources so Japan should do away with the competition altogether. Just get the top five or six juniors from JGP and have them duke it out at Nationals. Then select the highest placing age-eligible skaters for JW.

 

[treblemakerem]

Top 3 at nationals already means nothing for a junior. You're considered but you will likely be ditched for the next senior teammate who meets the criteria.

This is normally true. But when the next eligible skater is in 12th place they may be more likely to consider it.

 

[treblemakerem]

They could make that change in the future if they want to. However, if you publish criteria before a season and then change those criteria as soon as it yields a result you don't like, that's unethical/ unjust.

Rules are made to be followed, not broken. Changing rules during a game when they don't allow you or your chosen favorite to win is what toddlers do. If the rules are detrimental to the federation's goals, I'm sure they will change them before next season but they shouldn't do that retroactively. How unfair would that be to the skaters? Honestly, all another senior-eligible skater had to do to be eligible to go to Worlds was get on the podium. They didn't. Rinka was the only eligible skater according to the federation's rules. I don't see how this selection was controversial at all.

I was suggesting it for the future. Thought that was obvious.

 

[tsuyoboogie]

Thank you for clarifying how JGP spots are earned. I didn’t know the specifics. I watched Junior Worlds last season and the entire JGP this season and I only know there were plenty of Japanese junior men on the circuit despite losing a spot at Junior Worlds. Based on that, I thought Yoshioka and Nakamura will be able to keep the JGP spots since the spots seem to be unrelated to Worlds spots. But apparently it was only a coincidence that they kept spots because Tsuboi won the bronze medal.

However, knowing that doesn’t change my opinion because I already knew that choosing Miura was a strategic choice. In fact, I disagree even more now because Miura on the team isn’t even a surefire way to keep the maximum GP spots, only gaining the third JW spot. Miura isn’t the favorite for the JW title, but he’s obviously a podium threat and he needs to be on the podium. His TES in the free is a huge advantage, but not being able to do quads in the SP is going to disadvantage him. I’m not talking about total score; I’m talking about how I suspect his basic triples aren’t squared away. It’s something I noticed at 4CC last year. (Has Miura ever even competed as a junior internationally?) I don’t think I ever seen him do a 3T combination on a triple and he notably doesn’t have a 3Lz in his free skate. Ironically, he may be working from a deficit going into the free because he can only do 3s in the SP. But perhaps my suspicions are wrong.

Also, unless I’m mistaken and that’s entirely possible, Miura does not fit the criteria for Junior Worlds more than any skater that actually competed as a junior. JFed did not go by their rules; they blatantly went against them for strategic reasons. Miura did not compete at Junior Nationals. He did not compete at JGPF. He did not make the podium at Nationals. His TES is not among the top 3 men in Japan (that will be Uno, Yamamoto, Sato) and he definitely did not make the podium at last year’s Junior Worlds. The only criteria that Miura fulfills is top 3 SB, which is weighted below Junior Nationals podium and JGPF. If JFed followed their criteria with the same boneheaded absurdity as they did the ladies, then the second JW spot would actually go to Kataise. But they did not, which means they definitely could have done so for other selections.

(Yup, I did the “math” yesterday morning for all the selections. The TES part took longer than necessary for the 4CC ladies since I had to do top 6 and domestic scores count).

Other than the insult to Miura and the other junior men, the other issue with choosing him is that it means Junior Nationals is irrelevant and without point. It’s a waste of time and resources so Japan should do away with the competition altogether. Just get the top five or six juniors from JGP and have them duke it out at Nationals. Then select the highest placing age-eligible skaters for JW.

Not trying to change anybody’s opinion, just attempting to answer or clarify more of the questions raised regarding the decision to assign Kao to WJC (and the choice of alternates)

Note: Japanese is not my native language
Please let me know if I’ve misinterpreted any portion of the criteria below

WJC assignment criteria for Men and Women Singles (2 spots each)
1st spot) Junior National Champion~Yoshioka
2nd spot) Comprehensive judgement of the following criteria for those who are age eligible and wish to compete
(to be sent with the Junior National Champion)

A) Junior Nationals 2nd and 3rd place~Kataise (2nd) and Sasaki (3rd)​

B) JGP Final competitor~Nakamura, Kataise, Yoshioka (in qualifying order)​

C) Within Top 3 at Nationals~n/a​

D) Top 3 ISU SB scores~​

Overall~Uno (304.46), Yamamoto (274.35), Miura (273.19)​

Junior eligible~Kataise (234.24), Yoshioka (219.68) Nakamura (219.65)​

(Tech requirements and limitations between Senior and Junior programs considered, it would be unfair to compare Kao's scores with​

those of the Junior Men)​

E) Top 3 SB TES *2 earned at an international competition or domestic competition designated by the strengthening department *1 (excluding Nationals)​

*2 TES earned in both SP and FS combined from the same competition​

*1 West JPN Sectionals, East JPN Sectionals, Junior Nationals, Nationals​

SB TES determined by either~​

TES earned in a Junior competition or​

TES earned in a Senior competition with points awarded for StSq including GOE subtracted​

Overall~Listed Top 7 to include Shun's SB Total TES

		SP TES	FS TES	Total TES
1	Uno (GP Final)	54.42	111.59	166.01
2	Yamamoto (GP Final)	54.67	100.87	155.54
3	Miura (Skate America)	54.81	94.81	149.62
4	Uno (NHK Trophy)	48.29	98.29	146.58
5	Miura (SCI)	53.27	88.88	142.15
6	Sato (GP Espoo)	43.70	97.73	141.43
7	Sato (GP Final)	40.42	100.51	140.93

Junior eligible~
Again, unfair to compare Kao's SB SP and Total TES with the Juniors considering jump limitations in SP however,
the difference in the required FS elements has been adjusted for, so I've included his scores for comparison
Note: Shunsuke's JGP Courchevel FS TES is his also his SB FS TES
Only Takeru has scored higher than Kao when comparing FS TES from all eligible competitions

	SP TES	FS TES	Total TES
Miura (Skate America)	54.81	94.81-(2.60+0.74)= 91.47	146.28
Miura (SCI)	53.27	88.88-(3.30+0.90)= 84.68	137.95
Miura (GP Final)	47.88	81.15-(2.60+0.48)= 78.07	125.95
Kataise (JGP Baltic Cup)	43.39	79.66	123.05
Yoshioka (JGP Czech Skate)	38.75	75.82	114.57
Yoshioka (Junior Nationals)	39.44	74.46	113.90
Nakamura (JGP Courchevel)	41.29	71.37	112.66
Yoshioka (JGP Final)	35.10	76.84	111.94
Sasaki (Junior Nationals)	37.58	73.55	111.13

As you already acknowleged, following the criteria, it‘s fair to say that Takeru should’ve been first in line for the 2nd JW spot
I was going to mention this in my previous post but decided against it since he’s currently struggling to stay in competitive form
Being that he’s not even listed as an alternate, there is a chance he chose to decline the assignment

Kao is arguably the Japanese skater who’s Junior career has been derailed/impacted the most due to pandemic related decisions and restrictions
He’s only competed as a Junior internationally twice, 2019 JGP Riga and 2022 WJC
He was 14 when he competed in Riga,
placed 10th in the SP (with a 3A), 5th in the FS (popped his 4S and one of two 3As but landed a +GOE 4T), 7th overall
The Japanese Men had only 6 JGP spots that season (Kagiyama 2, Sato 2)
Kao’s 7th wasn’t “good enough” for a 2nd assignment so the last spot went to Sena Miyake
In 2020, ISU cancelled the entire JGP series, then last season JSF decided against sending their Juniors to participate in any JGP event
The federation compensated Kao by inviting him to compete in NHK Trophy 2020 (Japanese skaters only),
then awarding him the host spot at NHK Trophy 2021
Regardless of his Senior GP participation and 4CC assignment last season (assigned as the result of his 4th place at Nationals),
Kao kept reminding everyone that he was still a Junior
His goals for the 2021~22 season had been to earn the Junior National title () and to podium at WJC
But then at 4CC, he injured himself during an official practice before the FS
This was the reason he switched to his “safe” 3A first, FS jump layout
It’s likely the injury contributed to his inability to tack a triple onto the backend of any of his combos (as you took note of)
Unfortunately, that one injury spiraled into a series of injuries causing him to withdraw from WC (he was the replacement after Yuzuru’s WD)
and resulted in his less than optimal form at WJC
It’s hard to say if Kao would’ve been in better condition for WJC (not sustained as much injury)
had he not been still training to compete Senior programs and if WJC 2022 had not been postponed til mid April
And his health continues to be of concern with his remaining, nearly back to back 4CC and WJC assignments
Again, I pray he stays healthy and injury free for both of these competitions, but regardless of his condition, effectively switching from
Senior program layouts to Junior layouts in a matter of two weeks will be challenging
He could very possibly mess up his SP, but not because he's lacked or has lost the ability to do a 3-3
He’s been jumping 3F3T since Novice and 3Lz3T as recently as last season’s SP (since Flip was the required Junior SP solo jump)
He (his team) tend to avoid including the Lutz in his programs simply because he Flutzes
That said, as a young Junior he was also jumping 3Lz3Lo and this season has been practicing 3F3Lo
However, with the Loop being the required SP solo jump, Kao’s WJC jump layout will almost certainly be 3F3T 3Lo 3A, in that order

Like Hana Yoshida did this season, Kao could've and maybe should've competed internationally as a Junior and domestically as a Senior
That would've at least allowed him the opportunity to compete and medal at a JGP, possibly qualify for and podium at JGP Final,
achieving a few more goals he had set for his Junior career
But with how the last couple of years have played out for him, I understand his decision to abandon some of his Junior dreams
and move forward with his Senior career
Whether or not he's able to podium at WJC, earn maximum JGP spots for next season or help earn 3 spots for WJC 2024, my wish for him
is to just skate his best and be satisfied with his effort
That, and I hope he won't be persecuted for decisions made by the federation which he has no control over
(as we've seen recently happen to others)

My apologies for the delayed and obnoxiously long post