American Championships: Nationals Predictions Game Round 5

[Antyv]

I saw the lists at December 17 here.
http://forum.fsonline.ru/index.php?...122017-7012018/&do=findComment&comment=173437
Just then did not compare. Well, too lazy to change the prediction.

 

[Skater Boy]

I have to be honest here. When it came to the Ladies, I took the two skaters who I have really big soft spots for, and put them straight to the top. And put them in the order I would most like to see them finish.

For the remaining podium place, I was being pulled in so many directions. Do I go for experience (Ashley)? Do I go for the revelation of this season (Bradie)? Do I go for the revelation of last season (Mariah)? Do I go for the youngster who has been looking promising for the past few years (Karen)?

I don’t know what Ashley’s condition is now. But, after what happened at Skate America, I am inclined to be cautious. So, I decided to put her outside my Top 5.

Of the remaining three, I made my decision based on how they have been doing this season. Each of them have done three competitions where they have done 2 segments (I word it like that because Karen had 2 competitions where she only skated in 1 segment).

Generally speaking, Bradie has been scoring highest. So, I chose her for the remaining podium position. Which is good going considering I had never even heard tell of her this time 2 months ago.

With Karen and Mariah, it was tough choosing. Because although Mariah had the highest SB of the two, her other scores were lower than all of Karen’s.

For my alternate, I was dithering between Ashley and somebody who I would love to see up there – Caroline Zhang. But, even if she isn’t fully fit, I still see Ashley as more likely to get into the Top 6 than Caroline. So, I went for Ashley, and then Caroline.

For the rest of the field, I just put them into absolute PB order. Although there are quite a few that I am familiar with (more than I was expecting going into this), I haven’t actually seen many of them recently.

With the Men, I also knew who I was putting into the Top 2 positions regardless of who was there. Nathan was the obvious choice for winner. But, I wanted go with Max for the silver.

Whether he gets it or not will be down to the guys that I knew were going to be my next two, but just hadn’t decided which way round to put them. Jason and Adam have actually been achieving very similar scores to each other and to Max so far this season. So, there was nothing to choose between them.

But, I personally like Jason more. So, I put him on the remaining step on the podium.

Although I don’t like the version of the song he is using for his SP (despite what his ISU Bio says, it is NOT Snow Patrol singing. If it had been, I would have loved it!), Vincent was always going to be completing my Top 5.

The question was who to have as my alternate. I had three names in mind – Hochstein, Krasnozhon and Dolensky. That was the order I was thinking of having them in. But then I looked up their scores and found that although Grant had the highest absolute PB of the three, it was 2 years old. And the other two have been scoring significantly higher than him this season. So I put him into 8th (ooh, one place lower than I put his fiancée in Ladies.)

Both Tim and Alexei set their absolute PB’s at their most recent competition. And there were only 2 points difference, in Tim’s favour. But, he has only done 3 competitions since last year’s Nationals, all of which have been in the US. Alexei has done 6 competitions, and they have been a mixture of domestic and international events. So, I went for him as my alternate.

For the rest of the field, I kept them in absolute PB order. Yes, I know Ross’ absolute PB is from way back in 2013, but his recent scores have been pretty respectable. He is by no means finished yet.

In Pairs, I knew who were going into my Top 5 , and in what order. The question was who to have as my alternate. And there were quite a few to choose between. Because, I haven’t seen a lot of these partnerships for a long time. And so don’t I know where they are liable to be compared to those few that I have soon.

So, I went to the absolute PB’s. And I quite liked the order that it came up with, so I went with it.

I am not doing my Ice Dance predictions yet, just in case there are any late changes to the entries.

CaroLiza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Polina EDMUNDS
3. Bradie TENNELL
4. Karen CHEN
5. Mariah BELL

Just for fun:
6. Ashley WAGNER
7. Caroline ZHANG
8. Amber GLENN
9. Starr ANDREWS
10. Angela WANG


Men

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Max AARON
3. Jason BROWN
4. Adam RIPPON
5. Vincent ZHOU

Just for fun:
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON
7. Timothy DOLENSKY
8. Grant HOCHSTEIN
9. Ross MINER
10. Alexander JOHNSON


Pairs

1. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
2. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
3. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
4. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
5. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN

Just for fun:
6. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
7. Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU
8. Jessica PFUND / Joshua SANTILLAN
9. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY
10. Erika SMITH / AJ REISS

I love your explanations.

I am not nearly so knowledgeable but here is what I am thinking:

Men

Gold Nathan Chen - OGM favorite
Silver Jason Brown - the golden boy
Bronze Adam Rippon - I am hoping he keeps it together
Pewter Max Aaron - seems like a real nice guy but I prefer the skating of Brown and Rippon - edges and skating skills


Ladies

Gold Ashley Wagner
Silver Karen Chen
Bronze Mirai Nagasu
Pewter Bradie Tennell

Pairs

Gold Knierim/Knierim
Silver Denney Frazier
Bronze Cain/Leduc
Petwer Castelli / Tran

Dance

Gold Shibutanis/Shibutanis
Silver Chock/Bates
Bronze Hubbell/Donohue
Pewter Hawayk/Baker

 

[LadyB]

I'm only doing Men and Dance this time.

Men
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Alexei Krasnozhon
4. Jason Brown
5. Vincent Zhou
6. Max Aaron

Dance
1. Shibutani /Shibutani
2. Chock / Bates
3. Hubbell / Donohue
4. Hawayek / Baker
5. Parsons / Parsons
6. McNamara / Carpenter

On a different note, I'll keep my fingers crossed for Ashley and wish the Knierims a fantastic pre-Olympic performance!!! :clapper:

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Water under the bridge, but my three cents, since you mentioned me:

(1) The link to the USFS pdf of Nats qualifiers has been on the USFS home page for some days now. [The USFS home page always has been the source of the PDF link, in my experience.]
It is true that USFS did not publish the PDF as early as usual.
Sylvia had posted a list weeks earlier on her blog. Sylvia is not an official source, but she has a very strong track record for reliability. Sylvia's blog is well-known and well-respected among fans interested in U.S. skaters.
Weeks before the USFS pdf became available, the link to Sylvia's blog was posted on GS (by Mrs. P and others, IIRC).
I cannot remember whether or not someone on GS posted the USFS pdf of Nats qualifiers.
(I did not bother to, because by then it seemed that anyone who cared about the list of qualifiers already was well aware of Sylvia's lists. And Sylvia's lists [both of Nats qualifiers and of Nats practice groups] proved to be 100% reliable.)

(2) It is impossible for IceNetwork to post starting orders until USFS holds the draws.
USFS generally does not hold the draws until a day or two before each segment, and then IceNetwork posts starting orders within hours of each draw.
The Senior Short Dance Draw does not take place until 10:15 am PT today (Wednesday Jan 3).

(3) It is inevitable that multiple threads are discussing US Nats, and information gets posted in multiple threads.
For example, on Dec 2, I had posted that Digerness/Neudecker and Deardorff/Settlage would compete in Senior Pairs -- with the source being Broadmoor Skating Club.

https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/s...ss-nationals&p=1875333&viewfull=1#post1875333​

Thanks for the information.

I guess I was just looking in the wrong places for a link (the Championship website; the Events page on the USFS website; the first pages of the SP competition threads on here).

Don't worry, I realised that the late posting of the Start Orders was dictated by when the draws were being held. But, that is what really gets to me. Why do they hold the draws so late?! Could the organisers not decide the order as soon as the closing date for entries has passed, and then just make adjustments if and when people pull out?

By the way, I haven't come across this blog that you are talking about. The only Sylvia I can think of is the owner of that Italian skating forum that I joined a few years back. And I doubt if it is her that you are talking about. So, I am surprised that you are assuming that most people know about it and how to find it.

---

Just as a side note to anybody out there - do you know anything about Max Settlage's new partner, Winter DEARDORFF? I can only find stuff relating to her Singles career. So, I have no idea whether they are liable to be in the mix or not.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[Moxiejan]

Men
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Adam RIPPON
3. Max AARON
4. Jason BROWN
4. Ross MINER
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON

Ladies
1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Bradie TENNELL
3. Courtney HICKS
4. Mariah BELL
5. Mirai NAGASU
6. Caroline ZHANG

Pairs
1. Alexa SCIMECA-KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
2. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
3. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Dance
1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlyn HAWYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Lorraine McNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
6. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS

 

[notonmylife15]

Ladies
1. Bradie Tennell
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Mariah Bell
5. Courtney Hicks

Men
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Jason Brown
4. Max Aaron
5. Vincent Zhou

Pairs
1. Scimeca-Knirem/Knirem
2. Cain/LeDuc
3. Denney/Frazier
4. Digerness/Neudecker (if healthy, otherwise) Castelli/Tran
5. Castelli/Tran or Kayne/O'Shea

Dance
1. Shibs
2. Hubbell/Donahue
3. Chock/Bates
4. Hawayek/Baker
5. McNamara/Carpenter

 

[concorde]

Men:
1. Nathan Chen
2. Adam Rippon
3. Vincent Zhou
4. Max Aaron
5. Jason Brown (I think his inconsistently this season is due to a nagging injury that is slowly getting worse)

Ladies:
1. Bradie Tennell
2. Karen Chen
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Mirai Nagasu

I am changing my predictions for the ladies only.

Mirai moves up to #2 And Karen slides down to #4. Bradie stays as #1 And Ashley stay at #3.

 

[#1Kerryfan]

What I think will happen:

WOMEN:
1. Tennell
2. Wagner
3. Chen
4. Nagasu
5. Bell

MEN:
1. Chen
2. Zhou
3. Rippon
4. Brown
5. Aaron

PAIRS:
1. Knierims
2. Kayne/ O'Shea
3. Denney/ Frazier
4. Cain/ DeLuc
5. Castelli/ Tran

DANCE:
1. Shibutanis
2. Chock/ Bates
3. Hubbell/ Donohue
4. Parsonses
5. Hawayek/ Baker

What I hope will happen:

LADIES:
1. Wagner
2. Tennell
3. Bell

MEN:
1. Rippon
2. Aaron
3. Brown

PAIRS AND DANCE:
Same as what I predicted

 

[Puchi]

Men

1. Nathan CHEN
2. Vincent ZHOU
3. Adam RIPPON
4. Jason BROWN
5. Max AARON
6. Ross MINER

Ladies

1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Bradie TENNELL
3. Ashley WAGNER
4. Karen Chen
5. Mariah BELL
6. Caroline ZHANG

Pairs

1. Alexa SCIMECA-KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM
2. Ashley CAIN / Timothy LEDUC
3. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Tarah KAYNE / Danny O'SHEA
6. Deanna STELLATO / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Dance

1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlyn HAWYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Lorraine McNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
6. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS

 

[NYscorp6]

I miss Gracie!

My US Nationals Predictions:

LADIES
1. Mirai NAGASU
2. Bradie TENNELL
3. Ashley WAGNER
4. Karen CHEN
5. Courtney HICKS
6. Mariah BELL

MEN
1. Nathan CHEN
2. Adam RIPPON
3. Max AARON
4. Jason BROWN
5. Vincent ZHOU
6. Alexei KRASNOZHON

ICE DANCE
1. Maia SHIBUTANI/ALex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL/Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK/Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK/Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Lorraine MCNAMRRA/Quinn CARPENTER
6. Rachel PARSONS/ Michael PARSONS

PAIRS
1. Alexa SCIMICA/Chris KNIERAN
2. Hayden DENNEY/Branson FRAISER
3. Ashely CAIN/Timothy LEDUC
4. Tarah KAYNE/Daniel O'SHEA
5. Marissa CASTELLI/Mervin TRAN
6. Deanna STELLATO/Nathan BARTHOLOMAY

Good luck everyone!

 

[ice coverage]

... Don't worry, I realised that the late posting of the Start Orders was dictated by when the draws were being held. But, that is what really gets to me. Why do they hold the draws so late?! Could the organisers not decide the order as soon as the closing date for entries has passed, and then just make adjustments if and when people pull out?

LOL, the U.S. Nats draws are real draws.

The skaters gather in a room and pull numbers out of a hat.

It would be completely impractical to try to hold the draws weeks in advance.

---

... By the way, I haven't come across this blog that you are talking about. The only Sylvia I can think of is the owner of that Italian skating forum that I joined a few years back. And I doubt if it is her that you are talking about. So, I am surprised that you are assuming that most people know about it and how to find it. ...

Links to Sylvia's blogs and tweets are frequently posted in GS threads that pertain to U.S. comps and U.S. skaters.
(She also stays on top of most international comps.)

I did not say that "most people" know about Sylvia's blog.

What I said is: "Sylvia's blog is well-known and well-respected among fans interested in U.S. skaters."
And I stand by that comment.

I am not Sylvia's PR agent, but I do have a lot of respect for her.

https://twitter.com/SylviaUnseen
https://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/​

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

LOL, the U.S. Nats draws are real draws.

The skaters gather in a room and pull numbers out of a hat.

It would be completely impractical to try to hold the draws weeks in advance.

I just love the way you answered that!

OK, so I may think there are better ways of deciding the start order than random draw. But I do think it's cool that they draw the numbers out of a hat. I like old school things like that.

And given that it is an actual draw, it does have to be done when they are at the venue.

Links to Sylvia's blogs and tweets are frequently posted in GS threads that pertain to U.S. comps and U.S. skaters.
(She also stays on top of most international comps.)

I did not say that "most people" know about Sylvia's blog.

What I said is: "Sylvia's blog is well-known and well-respected among fans interested in U.S. skaters."
And I stand by that comment.

I am not Sylvia's PR agent, but I do have a lot of respect for her.

https://twitter.com/SylviaUnseen
https://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/​

Thanks for the links. I don't follow American skating much - I only dip in when doing the Predictions Game. But I will definitely keep Sylvia in mind for future seasons.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

When it came to Ice Dance, there was only ever going to be one order that I was putting my Top 4 into. The debate was over which of the partnerships that have moved up from Juniors to have completing my Top 5.

In precious years, it would have been a straight choice between Quinn / McNamara and the Parsons siblings. But, I was really impressed with Pogrebinsky / Benoit this season. So, they are also in the mix. In fact, I opted for Elliana and Alex.

I thought for a long time about the other two partnerships. And in the end, I opted for Lorraine and Quinn.

Next was Alexandra and Daniel. I would have liked to have put them higher, but I was cautious as they are only newly back together. And because of Daniel’s injury problems in recent seasons.

For the rest, I just went by absolute PB.


CaroLiza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ice Dance

1. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT

Just for fun:
6. Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER
7. Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS
8. Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
9. Julia BIECHLER / Damian DODGE
10. Karina MANTA / Joseph JOHNSON

 

[UpNorth]

I hope I'm wrong but here's my prediction for the Ladies....
1. Chen
2. Tennell
3. Wagner
4. Nagasu

 

[Antyv]

Spreadsheet to help the counters. Filling automatically, see tab "Remarks!". Not any entries could be read. It is not official!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EdhuwrYj92Rs90BnU0DRRB1M5eUKFia-
Completely done. Available for download. If you see that your prediction is filled correctly, you can see the scores. If you see that your prediction is not filled in correctly, it means that automatic parsing was not impossible.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

I love how you always put your faves at the top, no matter what

I have been doing that a lot this season, haven't I? But, I haven't always done it. In previous years, I really stuck to looking at the maths and doing everything scientifically. But, this year, I decided to go with my heart more.

If Polina does place, you'll be the clear gold medalist here!

Alas, it was not to be.

But, at least she was sensible and didn't try to to skate through the injury.

In terms of the Predictions Game, because she withdrew, I and anybody else that included her in their predictions will not miss out, because she will be deleted from the predictions (along with Ashley Lin).

In theory, I should still get a medal because after Polina is removed, I will have the right skaters in the Top 5, but not necessarily in the right order. (1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] wrong way around, and 4[SUP]th[/SUP] and 5[SUP]th[/SUP] the wrong way around).

Get well soon Polina!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[ines42575]

Ice Dance results

Gold medallist, with a perfect score of 75 points: Alchamei.

Silver medallists, with 70 points: LaArdilla, Ice Diva and Hyena.

Bronze medallists, with 65 points: Anyasnake, AshWagsFan, Off My Rocker and silverfoxes.

Complete results will be added into the spreadsheet next week, after I come back from my summer vacations.

 

[Barb]

Did someone really predict the men's podium?

 

[NoNameFace]

Did someone really predict the men's podium?

um, based on a quick round I've just made through predictions - nope, no even any Ross in top 5 in anyone's predictions (only 2 people slotted him as 6th, if I am not mistaken...)

and the highest score I counted is 45 (including Anyasnake, rosacotton and concorde), Puchi and Kittosuni also have 40 pts or more - generally speaking people who elevated Vincent on 2nd or 3rd and put Jason in 5th succeeded big time, looking what results actually were

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Did someone really predict the men's podium?

We'll see when I finally have time to do the scoring...