Male Junior Worlds medallists - and where are they now?

[CrazyKittenLady]

Since the discussion popped up in a couple of threads whether becoming a Junior World Champion bodes well for a skater’s senior career or if Malinin is doomed to be over-hyped and will never live up to the expectations, I decided to have a look at the data from the last five years.
To be honest, I was surprised myself, because my personal impression was that a Junior World title for a guy is more of a curse rather than a blessing, but it turns out that most male Junior World medallists actually do go on to have successful senior careers.

2017
Gold – Vincent Zhou (USA): Olympic silver medallist, 2x Olympian, 2x Worlds bronze medallist, 4CC silver medallist, multiple senior GP winner and medallist
Silver – Dmitri Aliev (RUS): 1x Olympian, European gold and silver medallist, 1x Worlds competitor, 2x senior GP medallist
Bronze – Alexander Samarin (RUS): European silver medallist, 1x Worlds competitor, multiple senior GP medallist

2018
Gold – Alexey Erokhov (RUS): missed first two senior seasons due to injury, never skated senior GP, still competes domestically
Silver – Artur Danielian (RUS): European silver medallist, 2x senior GP competitor
Bronze – Matteo Rizzo (ITA): 2x Olympian, European bronze medallist, multiple Worlds competitor, multiple senior GP medallist

2019
Gold – Tomoki Hiwatashi (USA): multiple 4CC competitor, multiple senior GP competitor
Silver – Roman Savosin (RUS): 2x senior GP competitor
Bronze – Daniel Grassl (ITA): Olympian, European silver medallist, 2x Worlds competitor, senior GP medallist

2020
Gold – Andrei Mozalev (RUS): Olympian, European competitor, 2x senior GP competitor
Silver – Yuma Kagiyama (JPN): Olympic silver medallist, 2x Worlds silver medallist, 4CC bronze medallist, multiple senior GP winner
Bronze – Petr Gummenik (RUS): senior GP bronze medallist

2021
JWC cancelled due to Covid pandemic.

A few bullet points as yet:
- There were no repeat medallists in the past five years.
- All of the medallists from the past five years are still competing.
- Only one skater out of twelve hasn't made it to senior GP.
- Three skaters (all RUS) of twelve haven't made it to a major ISU senior championship (Worlds, Europeans, 4CC).
- Six skaters (5x RUS, 1x USA) of twelve haven't made it to the Olympics.
- Two of twelve skaters are already two-time Olympians (Zhou, Rizzo).
- Seven of twelve skaters went on to win a medal at a major ISU senior championship.
- Only two skaters went on to win a medal at Worlds (Zhou, Kagiyama).
- The same two out of twelve skaters went on to win a medal at the Olympics.
- Russia is somewhat overrepresented in Junior Worlds medallists compared to their limited success in seniors.
Conclusion: If you are a Junior Worlds medallist and not from Russia, you very likely have a bright senior career in front of you.

So what does this mean for

2022
Gold – Ilia Malinin (USA): ?
Silver – Mikhail Shaidorov (KAZ): ?
Bronze – Tatsuya Tsuboi (JPN): ?

Only time will tell, but I wish them all a lot of joy and medals in their senior careers!

Disclaimer: Obviously this is not a serious statistical analysis and the data is very limited but it was a fun exercise with some (for me) surprising results.

 

[el henry]

Thanks for the summary!

Not only that, look at all those men who stayed junior. For example, Tomoki Hiwatashi, bronze in 2016 and gold in 2018, as a junior.

Also, I would quibble very slightly with "never made it to the Olympics" on a five year time frame. Men have until age 26/27/28 and I still have hopes for Tomoki

After all, Jason Brown won Worlds junior bronze in 2012 and junior silver in 2013 and Olympics nine years later. (Adam Rippon: Junior gold 2008 and 2009 and Olympics nine years later)

Why I love the junior men. For me personally (and only me of course) I get bored by here today, gone tomorrow. Don't have time to waste on next year's best thing if they won't hang around. The junior men don't bore me or waste my time.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

Also, I would quibble very slightly with "never made it to the Olympics" on a five year time frame.

You are absolutely right, I'll rephrase the OP. I still have high hopes for some of the skaters on that list as well.

 

[4everchan]

so in summary, only two are successful at the "same " level in seniors (worlds/olympics) and none of the champions have won gold at worlds or olympics. Of course, this is only the last few years... some of these guys still have time ahead of them.

And, when it was mentioned that if you are not from RUS, your chances are better, of course, there is an asterisk because there were no Russians this year.

I don't think this means anything much about Malinin. Not your typical junior wc

 

[el henry]

so in summary, only two are successful at the "same " level in seniors (worlds/olympics) and none of the champions have won gold at worlds or olympics. Of course, this is only the last few years... some of these guys still have time ahead of them.

And, when it was mentioned that if you are not from RUS, your chances are better, of course, there is an asterisk because there were no Russians this year.

I don't think this means anything much about Malinin. Not your typical junior wc

Isn't that wonderful, at least from my POV? A world medal in juniors doesn't mean you're going to run to seniors as fast as possible to "cash in". It means you are going to hone your craft.

I think anyone expecting Ilia to win senior gold next year, well, those are some mighty strong expectations and I don't agree. But can he do in the future, after he's honed his craft? A distinct possibility.

The Russian juniors, for whatever reason, even in years where they compete, just don't seem to be able to replicate their success. I don't get it. Too much quadding at any price happening? I don't follow enough to know.

 

[4everchan]

Isn't that wonderful, at least from my POV? A world medal in juniors doesn't mean you're going to run to seniors as fast as possible to "cash in". It means you are going to hone your craft.

I think anyone expecting Ilia to win senior gold next year, well, those are some mighty strong expectations and I don't agree. But can he do in the future, after he's honed his craft? A distinct possibility.

The Russian juniors, for whatever reason, even in years where they compete, just don't seem to be able to replicate their success. I don't get it. Too much quadding at any price happening? I don't follow enough to know.

The junior Russian men do not quad more than the others, so I don't know why their success is not translated to the world stage... but you know, these last few years, we have had a certain Nathan Chen... or a Shoma Uno... so it's not like winning worlds will be easy for an up and coming talent.

I don't expect Malinin to win a medal in seniors right away but I don't expect him not to do so either. Right now, his jump arsenal is a huge advantage but his skating is not on par with the top guys... so he can win, if others falter. If everyone skates super well, then, I don't think he would pass guys like Chen, Uno, Kagiyama etc..

 

[lariko]

Gold – Andrei Mozalev (RUS): Olympian, European competitor, 2x senior GP competitor

Once. Unless you counting home GP event?

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

And, when it was mentioned that if you are not from RUS, your chances are better, of course, there is an asterisk because there were no Russians this year.

Well, if you look at the Russian JWC medallists on the list none of them would have made the Russian team for Senior Worlds this season ban or no ban, so nothing would change in that regard.

The Russian juniors, for whatever reason, even in years where they compete, just don't seem to be able to replicate their success. I don't get it. Too much quadding at any price happening? I don't follow enough to know.

This discussion pops up from time to time in the Russian Men's thread and the general consensus seems to be that it's due to overwhelming federation pressure and mismanagement in the quest to crown their next Plushenko or Yagudin.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

Once. Unless you counting home GP event?

Yes, I counted everyone's Covid home GP as well. Otherwise Petr G. wouldn't have his GP bronze medal either.

 

[4everchan]

Well, if you look at the Russian JWC medallists on the list none of them would have made the Russian team for Senior Worlds this season ban or no ban, so nothing would change in that regard.


This discussion pops up from time to time in the Russian Men's thread and the general consensus seems to be that it's due to overwhelming federation pressure and mismanagement in the quest to crown their next Plushenko or Yagudin.

but that's not what i meant... what i meant is that this year's medalists may have been different if the juniors from Rus had been able to compete at the 2022 jwc (ETA Clarifying that I still think Malinin would have won)

 

[lariko]

I am not sure what happened/happening to Savosin, but the rest of the Russian guys fall either into ‘and then he grew and grew’ category or the ‘he got sick/injured’. Aliev’s and Mozalev’s Covid, Erokhov’s, Samarin’s and Danielian’s injuries, Gumennik and Samarin’s growth spurts… none of them pushed past 2 reliable quads. If the balance of the scale starts shifting to less, but more attractive quads, and if Russians ever compete again, it may be in their favour…

Heh, then there is an enigma called Ignatov, but I have no idea if he even competed in juniors.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

but that's not what i meant... what i meant is that this year's medalists may have been different if the juniors from Rus had been able to compete at the 2022 jsc

This, of course, is true. But what's done is done, and we will never know. That said, I am 99.9% sure that Malinin with the performances he had would have won a medal even with the Russians competing.

 

[lariko]

This, of course, is true. But what's done is done, and we will never know. That said, I am 99.9% sure that Malinin with the performances he had would have won a medal even with the Russians competing.

Absolutely. Yablokov is more engaging, but less stable, Lutfullin is in the growth/injury/sick combined category and anyone of Kovalev/Dikidhzi/? they would have sent just doesn’t have the arsenal…

 

[el henry]

I miss Ilia Skirda. And Andrei Kutavoi in international comps. (regardless of world events).

I understand that everyone likes different skaters, but it's hard for me to get invested in Russian men skaters when I don't know if they will ever compete internationally after I see them in one junior season.

The US is sending Tomoki and Camden out there regardless.

 

[4everchan]

This, of course, is true. But what's done is done, and we will never know. That said, I am 99.9% sure that Malinin with the performances he had would have won a medal even with the Russians competing.

definitely

 

[4everchan]

I am not sure what happened/happening to Savosin, but the rest of the Russian guys fall either into ‘and then he grew and grew’ category or the ‘he got sick/injured’. Aliev’s and Mozalev’s Covid, Erokhov’s, Samarin’s and Danielian’s injuries, Gumennik and Samarin’s growth spurts… none of them pushed past 2 reliable quads. If the balance of the scale starts shifting to less, but more attractive quads, and if Russians ever compete again, it may be in their favour…

Heh, then there is an enigma called Ignatov, but I have no idea if he even competed in juniors.

savosin was never that great even in juniors... but had two okay quads so he was able to get good scores despite a so so style. His skating was rough and remained rough... So, once in seniors, i guess it wasn't good enough to compete with the more polished Russians who also had some okay quads.

I love ignatov. I hope we will see him some day again and healthy and stable as a skater

 

[4everchan]

I understand that everyone likes different skaters, but it's hard for me to get invested in Russian men skaters when I don't know if they will ever compete internationally after I see them in one junior season.

this is true for many countries.. not just Russia.... and not just men... I used to follow juniors with passion... i gave up because it's too hard on my heart to see them either quit or not get into seniors or whatever... it's even worse for pairs and dance with all the splits... so now, i do follow juniors but not with the same intensity...

i guess i learned from following junior tennis... Canadian Peliwo : #1 ranked junior in the world... won some slam tournaments.. but never really made it.. he is still trying ... his issue is the opposite from figure skaters... he never had much of a growth spurt lol.. he is tiny compared to the senior tennis players (5'10 or so compared to 6'5 for instance of Félix Auger Aliassime)...

 

[lariko]

understand that everyone likes different skaters, but it's hard for me to get invested in Russian men skaters when I don't know if they will ever compete internationally after I see them in one junior season.

Kutovoy was injured all season long, otherwise he would have been in JGP last year. He only tentatively tried to compete again at the very end of last season locally. Honestly, I think a guy can take a season off to heal after an injury…

 

[lariko]

So, once in seniors, i guess it wasn't good enough to compete with the more polished Russians who also had some okay quads.

He had one really good skate this season, but there are definitely more interesting prospects both younger and older. But I think there was something that prevented him from competing after junior silver… and anyway, when he won that, Kolyada, Aliev and Samarin were looking good.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

savosin was never that great even in juniors... but had two okay quads so he was able to get good scores despite a so so style. His skating was rough and remained rough... So, once in seniors, i guess it wasn't good enough to compete with the more polished Russians who also had some okay quads.

Ok, sorry for going a bit , but Savosin rough compared to the more polished Russians? You must be watching a different skater than I am. Imo, from what I saw this season at the Russian Cup Savosin had amazingly clean movements, good speed and his spins (especially the camel) are a thing of beauty. I would definitely consider his general skating skills and presentation above the average Russian man. What he is lacking is stability in his jumps and a coach with influence in the fed.