Russian ladies Olympic team

[icybear]

Here are my pros and cons for each one.
1. Anna - pros - strong mentality, likely to receive generous pcs, has possibly 3 quads. Cons - the way she jumps using her arms so much makes me wary that she might lose her quads next year, her lutzes are susceptible to edge calls if the judges are in the mood.
2. Kamila - pros - high goe and pcs, probably the highest of the lot, 2 quads and 1-3 3a? Cons - mentality and consistency. Kamila seems to be the likeliest to breakdown in a high pressure event. Though her clean skate after Alexandra skate last week has swayed me a bit.
3. Alexandra - pros - high tech, if clean she can be unreachable. Cons - heavily reliant on clean quads, quads consistency very uncertain?, low pcs
4. Alena - pros - high goe and pcs, pretty consistent. Cons - no 3a?, pcs reputation with international judges might have changed, overtaken by Kamila and Anna?
5. Elizaveta - pros - 3a. Cons - unfavorable goe and pcs.
6. Daria - pros - possible 3a, consistent? Cons - low tech, reputation needed for pcs and goe not as strong as other
7. Evgenia - pros - high reputation. Cons - low tech, heavily reliant on judges to give her reputation pcs and goe.

 

[AshWagsFan]

Anna has one advantage, she works well under a big pressure. Not that she doesn't do mistakes but so far the only truly bad skate was JGPF two years ago. She also shows stability (not a single fall this season) and still has potentially one quad (second 4F/Lz) in her pocket.

Exactly - I think She’s likely to make the team, but I’m not certain she will take the OGM - but if she goes and delivers in Beijing, she’s sure to medal

 

[AshWagsFan]

How about 2026? They'd be 20-23 years old. Looking at the current crop of young novices, Akatieva misses the age cut-off by a few days and so does everyone younger than her.

Can we say for sure that every one of these four (Anna, Sasha, Alena and Kamila) would be either retired or quadless by 2026? Because whoever isn't may have a second shot at Olympic qualification.

The only one I see going through to 2026 is Trusova - she just seems to have so much grit and determination. I’m unsure of her chances of winning the OGM next year (making the team will be hard enough for all of the girls!), so I think she will try to go for the long game if next season doesn’t work out - that way she can hopefully work on maintaining the jumps but really improving the PCS.

I also think if either Anna or Kami doesn’t win OGM they may continue. ALena has said multiple times she doesn’t want to continue so I don’t know if we’d see her in 2026

 

[lariko]

It’s too early for that, but I assume Scherbakova, Valieva and Trusova.

in terms of wishlist, Usacheva for me is the closest, as well as Frolova if they get technical upgrades, and Frolova combats her problems.

but I also don’t discount the possibility of Kostornaya coming back from the illness/injuries break.

the three that I see as unlikely are Khromykh, Medvedeva and Tuktamysheva

 

[Flying Feijoa]

Wait, won't Akatieva be eligible in the 2023-2024 season?

Yes, she will be.

Oops, my bad! I confused it with a discussion on whether she'd be eligible if Beijing 2022 was postponed a year. Thanks for clarifying.

Anyone want to weigh in on whether a legally-adult group of Valieva/Trusova/Scherbakova/Kostornaia could be a match for Akatieva, Samodelkina, Zhilina (she is eligible, yes?) etc.? I guess at least one of the four (V/T/S/K) who doesn't qualify for Beijing 2022 will want to try again. The only question is whether they can hold fast against new competition. They'd be in the same boat that Tuktamysheva is in now.

 

[Fool]

Hmm I don't agree with the narrative that Valieva is a more nervous performer prone to break down etc. She has landed at least one quad in every competition she has attempted it (which no other lady can say). Quad stability from the get-go is where it took Sasha and Anna years to arrive at. She's still just 14, too, participating in these kinds of competitions for the first time.

I'm not saying she doesn't get nervous and it doesn't affect her (at her first JGP it was especially noticeable) but in general she's performed better the more important the competition (JGPF, JWC and now SrRusNats, versus individual JGP events or CoR stages).

 

[AshWagsFan]

Oops, my bad! I confused it with a discussion on whether she'd be eligible if Beijing 2022 was postponed a year. Thanks for clarifying.

Anyone want to weigh in on whether a legally-adult group of Valieva/Trusova/Scherbakova/Kostornaia could be a match for Akatieva, Samodelkina, Zhilina (she is eligible, yes?) etc.? I guess at least one of the four (V/T/S/K) who doesn't qualify for Beijing 2022 will want to try again. The only question is whether they can hold fast against new competition. They'd be in the same boat that Tuktamysheva is in now.

first we need to know if the age limit gets raised or not. If it is hypothetically raised, then I could be a battle between all of the same ladies again in 4 years

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Oops, my bad! I confused it with a discussion on whether she'd be eligible if Beijing 2022 was postponed a year. Thanks for clarifying.

Anyone want to weigh in on whether a legally-adult group of Valieva/Trusova/Scherbakova/Kostornaia could be a match for Akatieva, Samodelkina, Zhilina (she is eligible, yes?) etc.? I guess at least one of the four (V/T/S/K) who doesn't qualify for Beijing 2022 will want to try again. The only question is whether they can hold fast against new competition. They'd be in the same boat that Tuktamysheva is in now.

Predicting that far the future will be such a heartbreaker for me since I feel like one of them might not even make it to senior... (hopefully not, they look like they have okay technique but you never know...) Also, there are other prodigies rising up that exact year (namely Titova and Dzepka) who could challenge too! But it does depend on the age limit thing. If the age limit is raised to 17, I think Akatieva and Samodelkina will still be eligible, I don't know about Zhilina.

 

[Weathergal]

I don’t even want to say who I wish to be on the team because I fear I‘ll jinx them, they‘ll get bad luck and I end up with none of them making it. Yes, I am superstitious like that.

Who I think will make it... at this point:

1. Anna
2. Kamila
3. Sasha/Daria

I see no way for Anna to be left off the team if she‘s healthy. She‘s like the Evgenia in 2018, though with less international accomplishments due to the pandemic. But the three national titles speak for themselves. She‘s been reliable and consistent and conveniently, she can also land the two hardest types of quads. So, yes, she‘s the most solid choice and RusFed knows it.

2. Kamila was incredibly hyped this season and I think she‘s still the one who has the potential to win it all. She‘s the Alina to Anna‘s Evgenia. Better technical ability, though not as obviously so as it was with Alina and Zhenya (Anna can land two quads but she‘s also always in danger of getting her lutz and flip edges called (both are ! imo), depending on the panel. She won’t, of course, as long as she‘s among the Russian top 3 but the fact still stands that Kamila has clear edges on both flip and lutz and usually, a more well rotated quad as well as better spins and skating skills) I don‘t think she‘s anywhere close to Anna in terms of presentation but she has nice lines and we‘ve seen at RusNats that her PCS were VERY close to Anna‘s. So, if Anna shows anything close to weakness, they‘ll be ready to push Kamila as number one. Looking at it now, it‘s almost eery how similar these two situations look at this point in time.

Well, I know who I‘ll be rooting for. Come on, redemption for the “old ladies“, Anna!

3. Sasha and Daria, maybe Aliona

This is the one where I‘m most undecided. Sasha seems like the most obvious choice but she‘s also not been very reliable so far and she‘s a little hit and miss. Of course, if anyone deserves to go, it‘s her. Imagine the girl revolutionizing ladies figure skating not making it to the Olympics! If she can deliver under pressure a few times (RusNats was a good start), RusFed won‘t leave her home. But she‘ll have to work hard for that spot and she can‘t afford to have a weak moment. We‘ve seen how quick they were to push Daria over her in the SP, despite the latters mistakes.

Basically, Sasha has to be picture perfect as often as she can to build a different narrative and hope that Daria doesn‘t get a 3A or quad. Because if she does, it will be even more difficult.

Aliona, at this point, is a wildcard, which makes me very sad to say. She‘s already very old for a Russian lady (remember, she‘s at the age Evgenia was when things started to go south for her). She showed incredible consistency last season and she obviously is mentally strong, but she‘s battling injuries and illness in an age where you cannot afford to struggle. She‘ll need to go back to at least the layouts she had last season. I‘m praying for her to make it but right now, I‘m not hopeful. That‘s why she’s behind both Sasha and Daria in my ranking.

Maiia and Liza have outside chances; I guess. If Maiia finally lands her quad and does it consistently, she could be a dark horse. Similar for Liza and the three 3As. The Russian fed doesn‘t like to send her because her skating style’s not exactly modern so she would have to be exceptionally good while other favorites would have to exceptionally struggle. I‘d be happy for her but I‘m doubtful it‘s going to happen.

I can‘t see anyone else making it but I‘d very much like to be surprised, by, let‘s say, Zhenya. She DESERVES a second chance, she deserves to have a positive Olympic experience that isn‘t overshadowed by loss, pain and drama. But sadly, we don’t always get what we deserve in life. I don’t see a way for her - even before the injury it was an uphill battle against the quads/3As. Now, with that back injury and lung damage? I‘m happy if she comes to competition at all.

I have no idea about Alina, frankly. If she wants to go through the drill again and give up her other opportunities, the Russian fed would at least surely give her a chance at RusNats, since she‘s the reigning Champ after all. But she’s done it once, does she really want to go through all that pain and suffering in training again, when she has so many other things she could do? If she comes back, then I guess she‘ll be the one Sasha‘ll have to battle with, unless Daria gets a quad/3A.

And btw, yes, I know it‘s impossible to predict and trying is pretty much futile and foolish. But I enjoy going back to these posts to see how utterly wrong (or not, I wasn‘t so wrong in my RusNats predictions after all, so who knows....) I ended up being. I find it amusing.

I really like your analysis, Fluture!

I'm sure that I'm also an Evgenia fan helps, too. LOL

My Ideal team - not that one that I think will happen but the one I would love to happen is:
Evgenia, Liza, and Aliona. Obviously Evgenia and Liza are sentimental favorites, and I respect how hard they've worked and that they're fighting against the odds with their age (not that they're old!) in such a tough field. I think they both contribute so much to the sport and have more to give. I also think they bring a mature perspective to the field that is wonderful to see.

Aliona is such a beautiful skater, and, assuming she can get it back, which I hope she can, she also has a nice amount of tech to go with her artistry.

That isn't to say I don't like and respect many of the other Russian ladies as well! So many good choices to be sure!

 

[Jeanie19]

Who I want to make it.. Evgenia, Daria and Maia/Sasha

who I think will make it Anna, Kamila, Sasha/Evgenia

 

[Heroine Father]

What I want: Anna S, Elizaveta T, Maiia
What I think i will get: Anna S, Sasha, Kamila

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

How about 2026? They'd be 20-23 years old. Looking at the current crop of young novices, Akatieva misses the age cut-off by a few days and so does everyone younger than her.

Can we say for sure that every one of these four (Anna, Sasha, Alena and Kamila) would be either retired or quadless by 2026? Because whoever isn't may have a second shot at Olympic qualification.

Anything is possible, but the ones who don't make it will already have dropped to being, at best, the 4th ranked Russian. Then you probably have another two generations of Eteri skaters that will come on the scene before 2026, and each group seems to improve upon the last in every way. Seeing how Liza has stuck around might give skaters some hope, but she would have to have the skates of her life along with several ahead of her to make big mistakes for her to get on any world or Olympic team now.

 

[Magill]

Who I want (in the alphabetical order): Alexandra, Alyona, Anna and Evgenia - yes, I know there are 4 of them but I am not really able to leave anyone of them home, so... you know, DREAM BIG, as they say

Who I think I will get - I really think it is much too early to say and besides I don't wanna jinx anyone so ... time will tell

 

[brens78]

It’s gonna heartbreaking as there will be some fine skaters missing out, too early to predict.

 

[lariko]

Akatieva, Samodelkina, Zhilina (she is eligible, yes?) etc.?

+ Berestovskaya... but it’s sooo far away... there are ladies like Osokina, Paramonova and Gorbacheva as well, who might not have ultra c, but looked interesting at the cup of Russia this year, so I can’t see competition being any lighter. I feel that Davydov has an interesting group with many upcoming skaters worth watching. I am certainly curious to see how they will be scored at Junior nationals

 

[yume]

Whoever who will skate the best during GP series and at nationals. With no politics involved in closed doors to try to save a fed fave.

 

[chasingneverland]

I don’t even want to say who I wish to be on the team because I fear I‘ll jinx them, they‘ll get bad luck and I end up with none of them making it. Yes, I am superstitious like that.

Who I think will make it... at this point:

1. Anna
2. Kamila
3. Sasha/Daria

I see no way for Anna to be left off the team if she‘s healthy. She‘s like the Evgenia in 2018, though with less international accomplishments due to the pandemic. But the three national titles speak for themselves. She‘s been reliable and consistent and conveniently, she can also land the two hardest types of quads. So, yes, she‘s the most solid choice and RusFed knows it.

2. Kamila was incredibly hyped this season and I think she‘s still the one who has the potential to win it all. She‘s the Alina to Anna‘s Evgenia. Better technical ability, though not as obviously so as it was with Alina and Zhenya (Anna can land two quads but she‘s also always in danger of getting her lutz and flip edges called (both are ! imo), depending on the panel. She won’t, of course, as long as she‘s among the Russian top 3 but the fact still stands that Kamila has clear edges on both flip and lutz and usually, a more well rotated quad as well as better spins and skating skills) I don‘t think she‘s anywhere close to Anna in terms of presentation but she has nice lines and we‘ve seen at RusNats that her PCS were VERY close to Anna‘s. So, if Anna shows anything close to weakness, they‘ll be ready to push Kamila as number one. Looking at it now, it‘s almost eery how similar these two situations look at this point in time.

Well, I know who I‘ll be rooting for. Come on, redemption for the “old ladies“, Anna!

3. Sasha and Daria, maybe Aliona

This is the one where I‘m most undecided. Sasha seems like the most obvious choice but she‘s also not been very reliable so far and she‘s a little hit and miss. Of course, if anyone deserves to go, it‘s her. Imagine the girl revolutionizing ladies figure skating not making it to the Olympics! If she can deliver under pressure a few times (RusNats was a good start), RusFed won‘t leave her home. But she‘ll have to work hard for that spot and she can‘t afford to have a weak moment. We‘ve seen how quick they were to push Daria over her in the SP, despite the latters mistakes.

Basically, Sasha has to be picture perfect as often as she can to build a different narrative and hope that Daria doesn‘t get a 3A or quad. Because if she does, it will be even more difficult.

Aliona, at this point, is a wildcard, which makes me very sad to say. She‘s already very old for a Russian lady (remember, she‘s at the age Evgenia was when things started to go south for her). She showed incredible consistency last season and she obviously is mentally strong, but she‘s battling injuries and illness in an age where you cannot afford to struggle. She‘ll need to go back to at least the layouts she had last season. I‘m praying for her to make it but right now, I‘m not hopeful. That‘s why she’s behind both Sasha and Daria in my ranking.

Maiia and Liza have outside chances; I guess. If Maiia finally lands her quad and does it consistently, she could be a dark horse. Similar for Liza and the three 3As. The Russian fed doesn‘t like to send her because her skating style’s not exactly modern so she would have to be exceptionally good while other favorites would have to exceptionally struggle. I‘d be happy for her but I‘m doubtful it‘s going to happen.

I can‘t see anyone else making it but I‘d very much like to be surprised, by, let‘s say, Zhenya. She DESERVES a second chance, she deserves to have a positive Olympic experience that isn‘t overshadowed by loss, pain and drama. But sadly, we don’t always get what we deserve in life. I don’t see a way for her - even before the injury it was an uphill battle against the quads/3As. Now, with that back injury and lung damage? I‘m happy if she comes to competition at all.

I have no idea about Alina, frankly. If she wants to go through the drill again and give up her other opportunities, the Russian fed would at least surely give her a chance at RusNats, since she‘s the reigning Champ after all. But she’s done it once, does she really want to go through all that pain and suffering in training again, when she has so many other things she could do? If she comes back, then I guess she‘ll be the one Sasha‘ll have to battle with, unless Daria gets a quad/3A.

And btw, yes, I know it‘s impossible to predict and trying is pretty much futile and foolish. But I enjoy going back to these posts to see how utterly wrong (or not, I wasn‘t so wrong in my RusNats predictions after all, so who knows....) I ended up being. I find it amusing.

This is exactly how I see it too.

I see Anna, Kamila, and one of Sasha/Daria/Aliona/Liza. (Although I would LOVE LOVE LOVE Evgenia if I get to see her at one more competition - even with incredibly watered down routines - I would be delighted.)

However I disagree with the idea of deserving to go. If you're the best then you'll go. They all "deserve" to go.

I LOVE Sasha and what she's done for the sport; however, I don't think she deserves to go any more than anyone else. I want her to succeed but right now I don't think she deserves to go more than anyone else who's worked hard for where they are.

Yes it's hard to see her struggle after she's been proclaimed the quad queen.
However..
How is that any different from Anna breaking her leg and missing her entire first international junior season after being able to land a 4T-3Lz-3Lo just for fun in practice? She could have been the first to land a quad in international competition but she had to relearn how to skate again and catch up? (And has still not been able to do the 4T again due to that broken leg.)
How is that any different that Evgenia who had unparalleled (even arguably since her) success winning everything as a junior and then reigning and winning essentially everything for two straight years as a senior before breaking her foot (and suffering other injuries) in the most important season of them all - the Olympic season?
How is that any different than Aliona - who still holds the Jr WR SP score (and will hold it for another year as there is no junior international events) - having the Worlds when she was at her peak cancelled (after winning the GPF and Euros) and due to injuries and a pandemic struggling to get back to her previous form?
How is that any different from Liza who won GPF, Euros, and World's 6 years ago and has struggled to return to form and the one season that she does - before the arrival of the 3A - she gets pneumonia and is left off the team?
And I could go on. And on. And on.

And those are just the ones at the top. These girls are the ones who HAVE achieved a level of success hundreds of thousands can only dream off.

So yes, you need talent, you need hard-work, you need dedication, you need jumps, you need spins, you need artistry
but you also need a little bit of luck as well...(and that's what makes this sport so cruel even if it is so beautiful.)

 

[Kittosuni]

*Maiia Kromykh

It is now established that Kamila, Trusova & Shcherbakova are the favorites to make the team but I just can't shake the feeling that Maiia Kromykh will break hearts in the race for the olympic team.

No one really talks about her because she hasn't put 2 clean programs but her potential score ceiling is so comparable to Kamila, Trusova & Anna S. If you look closely she already have the Base Value and PCS to contend.

Unlike the other favorites who need to rely for Kamila, Trusova & Anna S to make mistakes, she can beat them on her own simply because she has the Base Value and PCS to do so. Obviously she has to skate clean which not an easy task for her but if she catches one the trio in a bad day and she skate clean-ish program I definitely think she can do it.

Definitely keeping an eye on her.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

guys, just being brutally honest but I don't think Medvedeva and Liza have any chance of making the team at this point.
I see the runners being 3A and Kamila. I do see Daria as a possibility, but based on reputation those four already have a great advantage over Daria.

 

[readernick]

*Maiia Kromykh

It is now established that Kamila, Trusova & Shcherbakova are the favorites to make the team but I just can't shake the feeling that Maiia Kromykh will break hearts in the race for the olympic team.

No one really talks about her because she hasn't put 2 clean programs but her potential score ceiling is so comparable to Kamila, Trusova & Anna S. If you look closely she already have the Base Value and PCS to contend.

Unlike the other favorites who need to rely for Kamila, Trusova & Anna S to make mistakes, she can beat them on her own simply because she has the Base Value and PCS to do so. Obviously she has to skate clean which not an easy task for her but if she catches one the trio in a bad day and she skate clean-ish program I definitely think she can do it.

Definitely keeping an eye on her.

Love Maiia but I have some doubts because her jump technique isn't ideal. I hope you are right, but I fear you are wrong.