Senior Ladies Ranking predictions: 2019-2020

katymay

Medalist
Joined
Mar 7, 2006
I think since Kazakhstan ladies don't have their own thread it is appropriate to discuss LilBet here. Any news about her?

I've seen a number of clips with her 3A-it is looking good. I predict she will be just under Rika next year, given that time with Eteri has improved her speed and flow. The 3A is going to be the make or break jump (I think) next year, given that it can be done in the short. That puts Rika and LilBet ahead of the rest. My prediction for next year is:

1) Rika (way ahead of the rest) and then:

2) Lilbet
3) Scherbakova
4) Trusova
5) Kostornaia
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
I've seen a number of clips with her 3A-it is looking good. I predict she will be just under Rika next year, given that time with Eteri has improved her speed and flow. The 3A is going to be the make or break jump (I think) next year, given that it can be done in the short. That puts Rika and LilBet ahead of the rest. My prediction for next year is:

1) Rika (way ahead of the rest) and then:

2) Lilbet
3) Scherbakova
4) Trusova
5) Kostornaia

Why will Rika be way ahead of the rest? Scherbakova, Trusova and Kostornaya all do Quads, sometimes double and in combination. Alina's elements for the next seasons SP and FS are not announced yet, so I really think it's too early to put Rika ahead of everyone. She was put ahead of everyone this season and she ended up our of podium completely.
 

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Why will Rika be way ahead of the rest? Scherbakova, Trusova and Kostornaya all do Quads, sometimes double and in combination. Alina's elements for the next seasons SP and FS are not announced yet, so I really think it's too early to put Rika ahead of everyone. She was put ahead of everyone this season and she ended up our of podium completely.

Although I love Kostornaia she does not do quads. There is a possibility of her regaining her 3A over the summer, but I think the first priority would be to return to the level she showed at junior nats since she was out with an injury
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
Although I love Kostornaia she does not do quads. There is a possibility of her regaining her 3A over the summer, but I think the first priority would be to return to the level she showed at junior nats since she was out with an injury

Should have been Trusova and Scherbakova only, not Kostornaya but my point is, it's too early to put Rika way ahead of everyone...
 

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Should have been Trusova and Scherbakova only, not Kostornaya but my point is, it's too early to put Rika way ahead of everyone...

Totally agree. Still 4 months until September and a lot can happen (both good and bad) between now and then.
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
I've seen a number of clips with her 3A-it is looking good. I predict she will be just under Rika next year, given that time with Eteri has improved her speed and flow. The 3A is going to be the make or break jump (I think) next year, given that it can be done in the short. That puts Rika and LilBet ahead of the rest. My prediction for next year is:

1) Rika (way ahead of the rest) and then:

2) Lilbet
3) Scherbakova
4) Trusova
5) Kostornaia

I agree that Rika can very possibly dominate the field,
she has a better quality in some jumps (less in other jumps, like everyone else). But I think her stronger jumps are fortunately the ones with higher BV
she's a natural toe jumper, but a weaker edge jumper in my opinion
I think her lutz always being rewarded the highest GOEs will definitely help her a lot.
Also, I think she practiced 3A enough and although not entirely consistent with it, with a lot of pops and falls, I still think her 3A was on upward trajectory in terms of consistency.
Her biggest problem as of now is URed 4sal and her general lack of consistency. We can blame it on different reasons, but I think more that any boot issues, it has to do with her mentality and nerves.
Before worlds she did 9 or 12 3As before her short, and still popped it when she needed it the most.

But Sasha's performance with a fall on her second quad and Anna's with a one clean quad can acquire around the same TES as Rika with 4sal and 2 3As, so I think in a way it can possibly all hinge on PCS points, which are unpredictable to say the least.
But at the end of the season Sasha managed to pull a performance with 3 clean quads, 1 in combo, which can also indicate that she is also getting even more consistent with her quads, and can pull out all 3 when the time comes, maybe when it will matter the most, like only on GPF and Worlds.
And if she does that, I think she might be outside of Rika's reach. But that's entirely a speculation on my part.

I don't think any of the finishes, whoever will be on top, will be way ahead of the rest.
In a way, I think all GPF podium and Worlds podium might both be very close.
But with quads and 3A being added to the game, and those elements being very high risk and unpredictable, things can go completely different ways.
 

moriel

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
I've seen a number of clips with her 3A-it is looking good. I predict she will be just under Rika next year, given that time with Eteri has improved her speed and flow. The 3A is going to be the make or break jump (I think) next year, given that it can be done in the short. That puts Rika and LilBet ahead of the rest. My prediction for next year is:

1) Rika (way ahead of the rest) and then:

2) Lilbet
3) Scherbakova
4) Trusova
5) Kostornaia

I disagree that Rika will be dominating the field.
She is inconsistent, something she has always been (and we have seen it a couple of times even last year). With increased difficulty, it is likely that she will make even more mistakes.
Then, as it has been shows multiple times by doing maths, a 3A in SP is not a deal breaker against quadsters, specially folks with 2-3 planned quads in FS.

If i had to predict right now, it would be something like:
1) Trusova: tons of quads, great athleticism, monster TES as result. She is also improving in PCs department, which means she wont be that much behind everybody else in PCs to close the TES gap.
2) Rika and Scherbakova. Rika is prone to bombing, and sort of missed the opportunity to build momentum last season (see Worlds and WTT). Also, 3A (even though it can be done in SP), is not such a huge advantage against quads. Math has been done multiple times. Scherbakova beats Trusova in artistism, but then has less quads and is less consistent.
3) Zagitova and Kostornaia: reputation and PCs. Zagitova has more rep, while Kostornaia has somewhat better jumps and more consistency. If Rika and Shcherbakova bomb, can easily climb to (2).
4) Lilbet. Some inconsistency there also, and reputation issues - Kaz is not Rus or Jpn or Usa, which means somewhat uncool PCs. With everybody clean I see her behind Zagi and Alena simply because judges will hold those +5s in GOEs and PCs. With everyone clean will stay behind, but if top folks make mistakes, she has the goods to climb up the ranks.
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
I disagree that Rika will be dominating the field.
She is inconsistent, something she has always been (and we have seen it a couple of times even last year). With increased difficulty, it is likely that she will make even more mistakes.
Then, as it has been shows multiple times by doing maths, a 3A in SP is not a deal breaker against quadsters, specially folks with 2-3 planned quads in FS.

If i had to predict right now, it would be something like:
1) Trusova: tons of quads, great athleticism, monster TES as result. She is also improving in PCs department, which means she wont be that much behind everybody else in PCs to close the TES gap.
2) Rika and Scherbakova. Rika is prone to bombing, and sort of missed the opportunity to build momentum last season (see Worlds and WTT). Also, 3A (even though it can be done in SP), is not such a huge advantage against quads. Math has been done multiple times. Scherbakova beats Trusova in artistism, but then has less quads and is less consistent.
3) Zagitova and Kostornaia: reputation and PCs. Zagitova has more rep, while Kostornaia has somewhat better jumps and more consistency. If Rika and Shcherbakova bomb, can easily climb to (2).
4) Lilbet. Some inconsistency there also, and reputation issues - Kaz is not Rus or Jpn or Usa, which means somewhat uncool PCs. With everybody clean I see her behind Zagi and Alena simply because judges will hold those +5s in GOEs and PCs. With everyone clean will stay behind, but if top folks make mistakes, she has the goods to climb up the ranks.


I think 3A can be a big advantage for her though. I can make an imaginary case here:
I think, Rika will have three 3A and a quad in 2 programs.
Having 3A in short can possibly mean that Rika can have at least 5 point advantage in TES in short, or maybe even more, since GOEs are factored to BV and a GOE for 3A will also give her more points.
So if other girls won't master 3A by the time they need it, Rika will have some advantage in short.

Other girls will have to bet it all on a free program, which I think is more risky and possibly can get on their nerves as well.
So if Alexandra goes with 2 quads and Rika goes with 1 quad and two 3A, I think TES can be comparable (two 3A (additional 10 points in BV)~ 1 quad), but will be at Sasha's advantage, since Sasha typically uses an expensive quad and goes for loop combos. But given the advantage Rika had in the short, she might clinch off a win by a narrow margin.

If Alexandra does 3 quads, and lands them all, even not perfect, I think Rika won't match her.

But all of that assuming both go clean, which as you fairly noted, might not be the case and I think it's fair to assume that.

And I agree, that Eliza might suffer because of her flag and lack of federation in the country, she'll have to stay incredibly consistent (which is hard given quads and 3A are in the game) and even then it might not be enough.
 

readernick

Medalist
Joined
Dec 5, 2015
I think 3A can be a big advantage for her though. I can make an imaginary case here:
I think, Rika will have three 3A and a quad in 2 programs.
Having 3A in short can possibly mean that Rika can have at least 5 point advantage in TES in short, or maybe even more, since GOEs are factored to BV and a GOE for 3A will also give her more points.
So if other girls won't master 3A by the time they need it, Rika will have some advantage in short.

Other girls will have to bet it all on a free program, which I think is more risky and possibly can get on their nerves as well.
So if Alexandra goes with 2 quads and Rika goes with 1 quad and two 3A, I think TES can be comparable (two 3A (additional 10 points in BV)~ 1 quad), but will be at Sasha's advantage, since Sasha typically uses an expensive quad and goes for loop combos. But given the advantage Rika had in the short, she might clinch off a win by a narrow margin.

If Alexandra does 3 quads, and lands them all, even not perfect, I think Rika won't match her.

But all of that assuming both go clean, which as you fairly noted, might not be the case and I think it's fair to assume that.

And I agree, that Eliza might suffer because of her flag and lack of federation in the country, she'll have to stay incredibly consistent (which is hard given quads and 3A are in the game) and even then it might not be enough.

Will not try to predict the future but I think that even if Trusova lands 3 quads, Rika is still competitive (if clean) BV of jumps across Trusova two programs in my rough.estimation ( assuming on 4LZ , 4T+3T, 4T and this years layout including combos in bonus) is 86.88. Rika's jump BV with next years programs should be 83.70. I think they will be very competitive especially because I would definitely give Rika the advantage in.non-jump elements and PCS.

It will be an interesting year.
 

Yuna Luna

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 20, 2018
Тrusova jumps quads at competitions for two years. Kihira didn't jump a single quad at competitions yet. I'd rather believe Trusova jumping 3A next season than Kihira jumping quad.

Just so you know, Rika is already doing quads in her new program.. she did a run-through of the new long program choreography and jumped 4S followed immediately by 3A-2T. There are several clips of her doing 4S in the past week alone. There are no clips of Sasha doing 3A though she is confirmed training it, but still in the harness I think. She said in an interview that she thinks it will be ready by next season though.

With Rika, I think she has the perfect layout to dominate when she skates clean (3 triple axels with one backloaded, and 1 quad). Now it depends on her consistency, that’s the biggest question mark. She wasn’t very consistent last season and it cost her the worlds title, WTT, and nationals. On the other hand, Sasha only has one consistent quad, and it’s the lowest value quad. And recently, she had some problems landing it at the ice shows. So I don’t think the battle between Sasha and Rika will be black and white at all, I think it will be very close and come down to luck honestly. I’m a bit glad that there is no clear winner between them because it will make next season much more exciting.

I also think that some people are downplaying the SP advantage ladies with triple axels have - it’s not a HUGE advantage, but it’s quite significant. At least, it is significant enough for Eteri, because it’s literally the reason why she is having all three juniors learn 3A this summer. So, she knows it’s a problem. Also I hope Alyona gets her 3A back. :)
 

moriel

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 18, 2015
I think 3A can be a big advantage for her though. I can make an imaginary case here:
I think, Rika will have three 3A and a quad in 2 programs.
Having 3A in short can possibly mean that Rika can have at least 5 point advantage in TES in short, or maybe even more, since GOEs are factored to BV and a GOE for 3A will also give her more points.
So if other girls won't master 3A by the time they need it, Rika will have some advantage in short.

Other girls will have to bet it all on a free program, which I think is more risky and possibly can get on their nerves as well.
So if Alexandra goes with 2 quads and Rika goes with 1 quad and two 3A, I think TES can be comparable (two 3A (additional 10 points in BV)~ 1 quad), but will be at Sasha's advantage, since Sasha typically uses an expensive quad and goes for loop combos. But given the advantage Rika had in the short, she might clinch off a win by a narrow margin.

If Alexandra does 3 quads, and lands them all, even not perfect, I think Rika won't match her.

But all of that assuming both go clean, which as you fairly noted, might not be the case and I think it's fair to assume that.

And I agree, that Eliza might suffer because of her flag and lack of federation in the country, she'll have to stay incredibly consistent (which is hard given quads and 3A are in the game) and even then it might not be enough.

I know I already did it 3 times or so, but once more the math on why Rika won't dominate unless quadsters lose their quads.
In short, for the same reason why she was not untouchable and unbeatable this season, even against girls with no quads or 3A at all.

Ok, so 3A vs Quad thingy, lets see the jump TES

Rika's SP this season (NHK, France, GPF, 4CC, Worlds)
Element - average TES - average GOE
3A 2,8 -0,10
3F+3T 9,5 1,52
3Lz 6,49 2,04
BV: 18,79
GOE: 3,46


Rika's FS this season:
(now, there is some flexibility: if her 1st 3A is good, she adds a +2T/+3T to it, else she tries once more, which explain the higher GOE on combo. Then, she also switches +2T/+3T between her 3A and 3Lz combos)
Element - average TES - average GOE
3A 6,66 -0,15
3A+3T 9,74 2,06
3Lo 4,9 0,99
3Lz+2T 8,73 1,40
3F 5,83 1,53
3Lz+2T+2Lo 9,79 1,55
3S 4,73 1,34
BV: 50,38
GOE: 8,73


Total BV: 69,17
Total GOE: 12,19
Total jump score: 81,36




Now, Trusova's SP (JGP Lithuania, JGP Armenia, JGP Final, JW):
Element - average TES - average GOE
2A 3,3 1,25
3F 5,3 2,03
3Lz+3Lo 11,69 2,28
BV: 20,29
GOE: 5,55

FS: there was a lot of switching, so the elements are somewhat approximate and sometimes replaced by something else.
Element - average TES - average GOE
4Lz 10,07 -2,10
4T 7,95 -0,04
4T+3T 10,74 0,68
2A 4,35 0,97
3Lz+3Lo 11,88 1,12
3Lz+1Eu+3S 11,77 1,75
3F 5,83 2,35
BV: 62,58
GOE: 4,72

Total BV: 82,87
Total GOE: 10,27
Total jump score: 93,14


In short, doing a clean SP with a 2A pays off. Yes, a SP with a 3A will earn more points, but then Rika does a lot of 1A* is SP too.
Overall, Sasha's average jump score was 93,14 this season, against 81,36 avergae jump score by Rika.
A side note here, once Sasha moves to senior, chances are she will start getting senior GOEs too (after all, her jumps ARE good), so this difference may actually increase.

Now, suppose Rika adds a 4S to her program. To simplify, suppose she replaces her 3S and keeps getting same GOE. 3S BV is 4,3 and 4S BV is 9,7, so she will gain 6-7 points there if her 4S is as consistent as her 3S (which may not be the case). She would be still behind Sasha.

Of course, there is the IF. But ohhh, IF Rika skates clean? Well, you know, Sasha may skate clean too, and get over 35 points for her quads alone.
 

Yuna Luna

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 20, 2018
Instaquads doesn't count.

I am saying that your logic is flawed. There are multiple clips of Rika doing quads and no clips of Sasha doing 3A (a jump which she admits she struggles with), so why would you expect Sasha to have 3A next season but not Rika having quads?
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
On the other hand, Sasha only has one consistent quad, and it’s the lowest value quad. And recently, she had some problems landing it at the ice shows. So I don’t think the battle between Sasha and Rika will be black and white at all, I think it will be very close and come down to luck honestly.

You are wrong, btw. Her most consistent quad is 4T, without doubt. However - most, if not all, failed quad attempts at shows were her attempts to jump 4Lz instead. You see, she is just not interested to jump 4T anymore since it's so stable that it became routine jump for her. 4Lz on other hand is still a jump she has yet to fully master - hence it's important for her to train it further at every possibility. Still, it doesn't mean that she couldn't jump tons of 4Ts at shows and impress spectators much more. She chose not to, though - 'cause her own self betterment (or rivalry with Scherbakova who jumps only the most expensive 4Lz) is more important for her than her fans admiration. At least I see it like this :)
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
You are wrong, btw. Her most consistent quad is 4T, without doubt. However - most, if not all, failed quad attempts at shows were her attempts to jump 4Lz. You see, she is just not interested to jump 4T anymore since it's so stable that it became routine jump for her. 4Lz on other hand is still a jump she has yet to fully master - hence it's important for her to train it further at every possibility. Still, it doesn't mean that she couldn't jump tons of 4Ts at shows and impress spectators much more. She chose not to, though - 'cause her own self betterment (or rivalry with Scherbakova who jumps only the most expensive 4Lz) is more important for her than her fans admiration. At least I see it like this :)

I wouldn't count shows as a reliable source for statistics on jumps. :)
On shows skaters can get too relaxed, their shape might not be as good (as it's the end of the season), the ice might be bad, it's quite dark there too and they don't really train for shows the same way as they do for competitions. :)
Liza Tuktik popped all of her 3A at her show preceding WTT, but then landed them all clean at WTT.
All skaters can often stumble on even easier and routine jumps on shows, so I wouldn't count whatever problems she had with 4lz on her shows as a signal that it's not going well.
Mad props for being able to land any quad given these circumstances.
 

Elucidus

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 19, 2017
I wouldn't count shows as a reliable source for statistics on jumps. :)
On shows skaters can get too relaxed, their shape might not be as good, the ice might be bad, it's quite dark there too and they don't really train for shows the same way as they do for competitions. :)
Liza Tuktik popped all of her 3A at her show preceding WTT, but then landed them all clean at WTT.
All skaters can often stumble on even easier and routine jumps on shows, so I wouldn't count whatever problems she had with 4lz on her shows as a signal that it's not going well.

Why saying it to me then? You should say it to Yuna Luna instead. It was he (she?) who began to make some conclusions based on Sasha's ice shows jump statistics, not me :confused2: Moreover, I even can add to your claim that any skater trying to jump and landing multiple quads at ice shows is so rare that you can say it's clear sign of extremely high confidence and physical form. How many skaters do you know among even men - who were jumping multiple quads at shows? ;)
 

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
Why saying it to me then? You should say it to Yuna Luna instead. It was he (she?) who began to make some conclusions based on Sasha's ice shows jump statistics, not me :confused2:

You're right :) sorry ;) should've quoted Yuna Luna =)
 

Happy Skates

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 18, 2019
With Rika, I think she has the perfect layout to dominate when she skates clean (3 triple axels with one backloaded, and 1 quad). Now it depends on her consistency, that’s the biggest question mark. She wasn’t very consistent last season and it cost her the worlds title, WTT, and nationals. On the other hand, Sasha only has one consistent quad, and it’s the lowest value quad.

If Trusova's 4t is the only one thats considered consistent then Rika doesn't have any "consistent" quads or 3A. Trusova landed 6/9 of her attempted quad lutzes this year and 7/10 attempted quad toes (not even including the one she did in a ex program under showlights with no warmup), while Rika landed 12/23 3As (these were both really quickly calculated so sorry if there are small errors). Also lets not forget about Sasha's quad sal that she hasn't lost and was really good last time it was on video early this season, and her quad flip that she might work on. For new jumps, Rika does have the advantage because she has shown videos of almost clean quads while Trusova hasn't yet shown a 3A video since the one she attempted in comp in 2016, so right now it is more likely for Rika to do a quad than for Sasha to do a 3A, but we'll watch for videos throughout the offseason. Also, Trusova hasn't been having any trouble with her 4t in shows, she's been landing it basically without any warmups in the finales of the shows with no problem, which means its super consistent. The only one she's been having "problems" with is her 4 lutz, but this is just because of small rinks, show lights, and most importantly, no warmup.

Anyways, if Rika can land the 3A in the sp, she will have an advantage going into the free, but thats dependent on 1)Rika being able to do her 3A in the short which she only did twice this season, and 2)Sasha not getting a 3A. In the free program, 3 quads + 6 triples will give Sasha the advantage over 1 quad + 2 3A + 6 triples, especially since Sasha's quads are more consistent. But of course, there's no use in predicting just yet, as people improve, get new jumps, etc. The only thing I can predict is that it will be an amazing battle between all of these ladies.
 

Claudalie

Rinkside
Joined
May 19, 2019
Why saying it to me then? You should say it to Yuna Luna instead. It was he (she?) who began to make some conclusions based on Sasha's ice shows jump statistics, not me :confused2: Moreover, I even can add to your claim that any skater trying to jump and landing multiple quads at ice shows is so rare that you can say it's clear sign of extremely high confidence and physical form. How many skaters do you know among even men - who were jumping multiple quads at shows? ;)

Just nailed it! That girl is described as fearless by her coaches and it's only fitting! Multiple quads on ice shows are extremely rare and it does speak of her confidence and great physical shape.
 
Top